The parent wasn't intended to be a troll, more of a smart-ass / lame joke. I'll accept the mod though since I didn't do anything to sufficiently indicate the intent. Just out of curiosity, what's the best onomatopoeia to indicate an intentionally lame comment?
"It is obvious, because for the past 100 years or so, people have been able to guess (people other than me) what industries lie ahead of us, with a suprising accuracy. I'm still a little awestruck that we managed to land on the moon in '69, but truth told, people were dreaming of that since the mid 1800s. Nuclear power was obvious in the late 30s to a select few, by the mid 40s the entire world was thinking about it (both for peaceful and belligerent purposes). Nearly every sort of industry that has happened, people were aware that it was coming long before it actually arrived."
There is a difference between a few key individuals being aware of an emerging industry and the masses having the same awareness. As you said it was around 5 years or so for the awareness of nuclear power to spread from a select few to everyone else.
"with corporations in the habit of 'outsourcing'"
What makes you characterize it as a habit? The last stats I saw showed outsourcing to be a small percentage of lost jobs. Do you have any evidence to prove it is a "habit"?
"Even counting baby boomer retirements as liberally as I can, there just isn't going to be nearly as many job openings, as there are adults looking to fill them."
Once again, point me to your evidence. Do you have employment projections that show an excess supply of labor that takes into account baby boomer retirements?
"Isn't it obvious that it's hurting some people now? It's not a temporary effect, and those people don't have anything to retrain for."
Job losses always hurt someone. I'm not going to dispute that but I haven't seen any evidence that it's not a temporary effect and there are labor shortages in other areas. IIRC, teaching and nursing are a couple of examples.
"Bad joke. The trend has been to eliminate unnecessary management."
That was only intended to be a partial joke. I was also responding to your comment about Indian outsourcees (I'm not sure thats a word but oh well) not being happy having people in the US as middle management.
"Two things are going on here. Just a guess, but the beginning of those 3 years caught the edge of the dotcom thing, where people like me had more spending money than usual. So yeh, you got a little more than minimum. Second, you are implying that we'll all become fast food workers. I regret that I can't dispute that... I just can't concede it nearly as happily as you."
My stint in food delivery was several years prior to the dotcom thing and I wasn't implying that we'll all become fast food workers. The comment was intended to imply that the minimum wage might not be the best mark by which to judge labor rates. I apologize for not making that point more clearly.
As a side note, I've heard rumors (some call them new reports:) ) that more Americans are eating out as opposed to cooking at home. For those willing to take the chances, this may indicate opportunities to enter the food service industry as business owners as opposed to employees, but as with anything else YMMV.
As someone who was born in the Huntsville area and currently works here, I have to take exception to some of this.
"It figures a bunch of backwoods hicks living in the asshole of America (Alabama) couldn't add and subtract numbers correctly. They get lost after they count to 20 and exhaust the number of fingers and toes they have so it's understandable that figures like $2 billion here or $3 billion there would utterly confound them."
This is not an accurate characterization of the whole state, nor of all it's citizens. While there is alot about this state that I don't like (ex. I'm agnostic and none too happy over this crap Roy Moore is trying to pull) it's not all bad. As evidence that your assesment might not be fair I submit check the following:
http://www.waff.com/Global/story.asp?S=1863478&n av =0hBBN5Ba
As further evidence, I've got a pair of shoes! They're hanging from the power lines outside.
I'll grant you there is a lot of hicks here but Alabama hasn't exactly cornered the market. I've seen or seen pictures of (courtesy of friends in bands - and no not friggin country) poor crappy towns in almost every state in the continental US (and some in Canada).
Aside from that, not everyone that works at MSFC is a native of the state. If your going to assert hick management, you should at least be fair and blame it on the hicks and not necessarily the state.
I will admit however, that since NASA is a government agency, the IMF would be much better managed if it was handled in D.C. oh wait...
"They were aware of it. Many were busy rebelling against the new paradiums in protection of their own comfort. Buggy manufacturers railed against the evils of the Auto.
Key is, both the old and new paradigm were clearly observant to all during the transition."
First, when your employment sector might be threatened there is a difference between the response "Shit I'm about to get canned! This isn't fair! Rabble! Rabble! Rabble!" and "Crap I'm about to be replaced by this new technology but this new technology is going to have new opportunities."
Saying that buggy manufacurers were aware that they were going to be replaced by autos is not the same as having a full awareness of ALL the effects of the paradigm shift.
"Some may not have been willing to accept the fact, but that does not change the fact the new (and ultimately better) opportunity was visable to workers."
How can you state that the new opportunity was visable to workers. Especially given that as you stated, they were concerned with protection of their own comfort not to mention that as you have said "some may not have been willing to accept the fact" Both of these statements indicate that they were in fact not truly aware of the opportunities brought by the change.
"Ok, name one, even a potental one. Ok, I'll go one further, name even thoretical one. What comes after intellect?"
I can't name one, I'll admit it. But the fact that neither you nor I can name one proves that one isn't in the queue somewhere. Even you and I can't come up with one after intellect (not precisely sure what you mean by that), that doesn't mean someone else won't and I'm not convinced that we've even reach the end of the intellect paradigm.
Besides that, do you have any conclusive evidence that this round of outsourcing is total and final in the buggy sence and not temporary and/or compartmentalized to fields or job levels within the IT sector? Do you have any evidence that it is really a problem even if it's compartmentalized to within the IT sector? IIRC, The last news I heard, the unemployment rate in the US is slightly under 6% and has been decreasing over recent months, and the number of jobs lost to outsourcing was under 1% of all jobs lost - with the majority being lost to natural job turnover. Additionally, at one point I heard rumors of an Indian software firm (I want to say Infosys but I'm not sure) outsourcing a couple hundred jobs to the US.
I bring this up because I live in Alabama and my mother works for Delphi (GM subsidiary). At one point in the past, everyone was freaked because domestic auto companies was shipping manufacturing jobs overseas. That did happen to some extent, but Delphi is still here and is now making parts for Mazda (Ford has a 30% stake I think) and this state also has plants for Mercedes, Honda, Hyundai and Toyota. Outsourcing isn't necessarily one way.
How about psychologists to console people when the point in time comes that they realize all their tin-foil-hat / the-sky-is-falling theories didn't pan out? Nah, they would probably just forget all about it and shift the focus of their doom & gloom mentality to something else.
"I don't have any clue why people insist "well, there will always be something else to do". There will be, of course, on the low end of the wage slave scale. There simply aren't going to be any more booms left. When this becomes more obvious..."
How is this so obvious to you? Seriously, clue me in on this gnostic-like secret knowledge of yours that leads you to this idea. You haven't shown me anything to back up your statements and yet you seem to have such an obstinate blind faith in your opinions that you can't even concede the possibility that a new sector or market paradigm might be awaiting us. I'm not saying that a new sector will open up and remain in the US for all time. It won't, because we have a dynamic economy. It's the nature of how our economic system works, not some blind faith that things will always work out.
"Are we all supposed to become middle (and up) management?" maybe
"Our outsourced indian workers will like that, I'm sure."
so, other than middle managers, I don't know of too many people that like middle management anyways and I doubt outsourced indian workers will like indian middle managers anymore so I don't see this as an issue.
"One little problem though, management is a club most of us won't get invited to."
This sounds like evidence of a personal problem that I'm not qualified to address.
"I dare you, to come up with a single field, capable of employing 250,000 workers at higher than minimum wage."
This may only have regional implications but I for 3 years I delivered food, Dominos, Steak-Out and such. At one point my pay (not talking about tips here) was 30% higher than minimum wage. Slowly the minimum wage started creeping up but my pay stayed the same. Naturally the cost of products started creeping up with it, they lagged behind slightly, but they crept up just the same. The net effect was I ended up in a minimum wage job with approx. a 30% reduction in my spending power, why because of the more socialist leaning members of the US decided to increase the arbitrary amount they thought everyone was entitled to.
"You will win, and I will concede your victory."
I'm not after victory, I'd just like you to admit that maybe - not even probably or likely - just maybe, the outsourcing thing isn't the harbinger of an economic collapse and some solution we haven't thought of might be waiting around the corner so to speak.
I'll agree that a blind faith in the notion that "everything will be ok and I don't have to think about it" is wholly irresponsible but I also think that a knee-jerk emotional response is just as dangerous and we should all take a step back, count to 10 and think about this from a more rational frame of mind.
"If you follow the logic that pro-outsourcing folks use that "people are going to move up the job ladder" eventually everyone will have to have a Phd and 20 years of experience to get a job in any field."
Thats a slippery slope argument.
"there are only so many places at the top"
Since the "baby-boomer" generation is approaching retirement, some vacancies will probably be appearing and other opportunities might be created. As an example, IIRC, there is some concern about nuclear physicists since those who've experienced live tests are retiring. This is creating an increased reliance on accurate simulations which require more advanced simulation systems. As a side note, the nature of some the work involved in creating these systems might require a security clearance which could provide a decent level of job security.
""Sure, maybe it's great for the country overall.."
What ever gave you this idea?"
History maybe? I'll grant you that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, but, it can be a good basis for judging overall management strategy.
"Look at our economy. "
I'm looking at it. It could be and has been better, but it also could be and has been worse.
"Even the talking heads have trouble describing it as the end of the recession, and they usually like lying to us."
Two points on this one. I have trouble using talking heads as evidence because for every one I've seen take a stance, I've seen another take an opposing stance. Aside from that, if they usually like lying to us and they won't describe it as the end of the recession, that could be interpreted as it is the end of the recession.
"And everyone seems to forget that their are no new fields to go into."
What makes you frame this as a fact? From my observations, the majority of the workforce in a new field are the last to recognize the employment and market potential of that field.
"Well, I don't have any verifiable figures to back this up"
exactly, you don't have any numbers to back this up, and you didn't provide any numbers to back up your previous post yet you make arguments as if these are facts
"And, EVERY TIME, there was an established emerging paradim for displaced workers to adopt. Farm hands were displaced, and many claimed the "end of the world", but in reality they had access to the emerging industrial age.
Hmm...so there was an emerging paradigm to replace displaced workers but those workers claimed "the end of the world" at the time. Any chance that they were afraid because they were not aware of the emerging paradigm and the reason its so obvious to us now is the 20/20 nature of hindsight?
"No so this time. Not even close."
"He seems to have analyzed the situation and has (rightly) concluded that the parameters that determined past experience have changed in a frank and material way."
"The model IS different this time and it is a major error on your part to blindly accept that your incomplete and flawed view of economic history will repeat itself."
So you have analysed the entire economic landscape and determined there is no emerging paradigm to replace displaced workers? Well, we are so fortunate to have access to someone of your abilities.
Seriously, on what do you base those statements? I'm not going to blindly accept that history will repeat itself but I'm also not going to blindly accept your rhetoric either. The fact that neither you nor I see an emerging sector to accommodate a large-scale displacement (that hasn't been realized) is no indicator of what will happen.
"No, it's because most of them have a spouse who also works, usually in a job that pays better than their teaching job. With their combined incomes, they can live pretty decently, but only because one of them (usually the husband) picked a career with better earning potential."
Ahhh, so the teaching field has somehow been protected from the high divorce rate that the rest of the US has experienced.
As a project manager in the IT sector, I can attest to the nature of outsourcing. The fact of the matter is/. posters are much cheaper in India than in the US.
Slashdot Mirror
" * guide to arguments: When in doubt, blame *. When cornered, insult opponent or change the subject"
targeted signature + 2 small changes = universal application
heh, oh well
"If I'm gonna get my balls blown off for a word, my word is poontang."
is she in any porn?
it's an early precursor to the game hangman?
ahh, so its a beer then
The parent wasn't intended to be a troll, more of a smart-ass / lame joke. I'll accept the mod though since I didn't do anything to sufficiently indicate the intent. Just out of curiosity, what's the best onomatopoeia to indicate an intentionally lame comment?
"It is obvious, because for the past 100 years or so, people have been able to guess (people other than me) what industries lie ahead of us, with a suprising accuracy. I'm still a little awestruck that we managed to land on the moon in '69, but truth told, people were dreaming of that since the mid 1800s. Nuclear power was obvious in the late 30s to a select few, by the mid 40s the entire world was thinking about it (both for peaceful and belligerent purposes). Nearly every sort of industry that has happened, people were aware that it was coming long before it actually arrived."
:) ) that more Americans are eating out as opposed to cooking at home. For those willing to take the chances, this may indicate opportunities to enter the food service industry as business owners as opposed to employees, but as with anything else YMMV.
There is a difference between a few key individuals being aware of an emerging industry and the masses having the same awareness. As you said it was around 5 years or so for the awareness of nuclear power to spread from a select few to everyone else.
"with corporations in the habit of 'outsourcing'"
What makes you characterize it as a habit? The last stats I saw showed outsourcing to be a small percentage of lost jobs. Do you have any evidence to prove it is a "habit"?
"Even counting baby boomer retirements as liberally as I can, there just isn't going to be nearly as many job openings, as there are adults looking to fill them."
Once again, point me to your evidence. Do you have employment projections that show an excess supply of labor that takes into account baby boomer retirements?
"Isn't it obvious that it's hurting some people now? It's not a temporary effect, and those people don't have anything to retrain for."
Job losses always hurt someone. I'm not going to dispute that but I haven't seen any evidence that it's not a temporary effect and there are labor shortages in other areas. IIRC, teaching and nursing are a couple of examples.
"Bad joke. The trend has been to eliminate unnecessary management."
That was only intended to be a partial joke. I was also responding to your comment about Indian outsourcees (I'm not sure thats a word but oh well) not being happy having people in the US as middle management.
"Two things are going on here. Just a guess, but the beginning of those 3 years caught the edge of the dotcom thing, where people like me had more spending money than usual. So yeh, you got a little more than minimum. Second, you are implying that we'll all become fast food workers. I regret that I can't dispute that... I just can't concede it nearly as happily as you."
My stint in food delivery was several years prior to the dotcom thing and I wasn't implying that we'll all become fast food workers. The comment was intended to imply that the minimum wage might not be the best mark by which to judge labor rates. I apologize for not making that point more clearly.
As a side note, I've heard rumors (some call them new reports
The article failed to explore the re-occuring costs of keeping a lid on that faked moon landing...
As someone who was born in the Huntsville area and currently works here, I have to take exception to some of this.
0 03 /05/05/daily50.html
n av =0hBBN5Ba
"It figures a bunch of backwoods hicks living in the asshole of America (Alabama) couldn't add and subtract numbers correctly. They get lost after they count to 20 and exhaust the number of fingers and toes they have so it's understandable that figures like $2 billion here or $3 billion there would utterly confound them."
This is not an accurate characterization of the whole state, nor of all it's citizens. While there is alot about this state that I don't like (ex. I'm agnostic and none too happy over this crap Roy Moore is trying to pull) it's not all bad. As evidence that your assesment might not be fair I submit check the following:
http://www.bizjournals.com/birmingham/stories/2
http://www.waff.com/Global/story.asp?S=1863478&
As further evidence, I've got a pair of shoes! They're hanging from the power lines outside.
I'll grant you there is a lot of hicks here but Alabama hasn't exactly cornered the market. I've seen or seen pictures of (courtesy of friends in bands - and no not friggin country) poor crappy towns in almost every state in the continental US (and some in Canada).
Aside from that, not everyone that works at MSFC is a native of the state. If your going to assert hick management, you should at least be fair and blame it on the hicks and not necessarily the state.
I will admit however, that since NASA is a government agency, the IMF would be much better managed if it was handled in D.C. oh wait...
"They were aware of it. Many were busy rebelling against the new paradiums in protection of their own comfort. Buggy manufacturers railed against the evils of the Auto.
Key is, both the old and new paradigm were clearly observant to all during the transition."
First, when your employment sector might be threatened there is a difference between the response "Shit I'm about to get canned! This isn't fair! Rabble! Rabble! Rabble!" and "Crap I'm about to be replaced by this new technology but this new technology is going to have new opportunities."
Saying that buggy manufacurers were aware that they were going to be replaced by autos is not the same as having a full awareness of ALL the effects of the paradigm shift.
"Some may not have been willing to accept the fact, but that does not change the fact the new (and ultimately better) opportunity was visable to workers."
How can you state that the new opportunity was visable to workers. Especially given that as you stated, they were concerned with protection of their own comfort not to mention that as you have said "some may not have been willing to accept the fact" Both of these statements indicate that they were in fact not truly aware of the opportunities brought by the change.
"Ok, name one, even a potental one. Ok, I'll go one further, name even thoretical one. What comes after intellect?"
I can't name one, I'll admit it. But the fact that neither you nor I can name one proves that one isn't in the queue somewhere. Even you and I can't come up with one after intellect (not precisely sure what you mean by that), that doesn't mean someone else won't and I'm not convinced that we've even reach the end of the intellect paradigm.
Besides that, do you have any conclusive evidence that this round of outsourcing is total and final in the buggy sence and not temporary and/or compartmentalized to fields or job levels within the IT sector? Do you have any evidence that it is really a problem even if it's compartmentalized to within the IT sector? IIRC, The last news I heard, the unemployment rate in the US is slightly under 6% and has been decreasing over recent months, and the number of jobs lost to outsourcing was under 1% of all jobs lost - with the majority being lost to natural job turnover. Additionally, at one point I heard rumors of an Indian software firm (I want to say Infosys but I'm not sure) outsourcing a couple hundred jobs to the US.
I bring this up because I live in Alabama and my mother works for Delphi (GM subsidiary). At one point in the past, everyone was freaked because domestic auto companies was shipping manufacturing jobs overseas. That did happen to some extent, but Delphi is still here and is now making parts for Mazda (Ford has a 30% stake I think) and this state also has plants for Mercedes, Honda, Hyundai and Toyota. Outsourcing isn't necessarily one way.
How about psychologists to console people when the point in time comes that they realize all their tin-foil-hat / the-sky-is-falling theories didn't pan out? Nah, they would probably just forget all about it and shift the focus of their doom & gloom mentality to something else.
"I don't have any clue why people insist "well, there will always be something else to do". There will be, of course, on the low end of the wage slave scale. There simply aren't going to be any more booms left. When this becomes more obvious..."
How is this so obvious to you? Seriously, clue me in on this gnostic-like secret knowledge of yours that leads you to this idea. You haven't shown me anything to back up your statements and yet you seem to have such an obstinate blind faith in your opinions that you can't even concede the possibility that a new sector or market paradigm might be awaiting us. I'm not saying that a new sector will open up and remain in the US for all time. It won't, because we have a dynamic economy. It's the nature of how our economic system works, not some blind faith that things will always work out.
"Are we all supposed to become middle (and up) management?"
maybe
"Our outsourced indian workers will like that, I'm sure."
so, other than middle managers, I don't know of too many people that like middle management anyways and I doubt outsourced indian workers will like indian middle managers anymore so I don't see this as an issue.
"One little problem though, management is a club most of us won't get invited to."
This sounds like evidence of a personal problem that I'm not qualified to address.
"I dare you, to come up with a single field, capable of employing 250,000 workers at higher than minimum wage."
This may only have regional implications but I for 3 years I delivered food, Dominos, Steak-Out and such. At one point my pay (not talking about tips here) was 30% higher than minimum wage. Slowly the minimum wage started creeping up but my pay stayed the same. Naturally the cost of products started creeping up with it, they lagged behind slightly, but they crept up just the same. The net effect was I ended up in a minimum wage job with approx. a 30% reduction in my spending power, why because of the more socialist leaning members of the US decided to increase the arbitrary amount they thought everyone was entitled to.
"You will win, and I will concede your victory."
I'm not after victory, I'd just like you to admit that maybe - not even probably or likely - just maybe, the outsourcing thing isn't the harbinger of an economic collapse and some solution we haven't thought of might be waiting around the corner so to speak.
I'll agree that a blind faith in the notion that "everything will be ok and I don't have to think about it" is wholly irresponsible but I also think that a knee-jerk emotional response is just as dangerous and we should all take a step back, count to 10 and think about this from a more rational frame of mind.
"If you follow the logic that pro-outsourcing folks use that "people are going to move up the job ladder" eventually everyone will have to have a Phd and 20 years of experience to get a job in any field."
Thats a slippery slope argument.
"there are only so many places at the top"
Since the "baby-boomer" generation is approaching retirement, some vacancies will probably be appearing and other opportunities might be created. As an example, IIRC, there is some concern about nuclear physicists since those who've experienced live tests are retiring. This is creating an increased reliance on accurate simulations which require more advanced simulation systems. As a side note, the nature of some the work involved in creating these systems might require a security clearance which could provide a decent level of job security.
""Sure, maybe it's great for the country overall.."
What ever gave you this idea?"
History maybe? I'll grant you that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, but, it can be a good basis for judging overall management strategy.
"Look at our economy. "
I'm looking at it. It could be and has been better, but it also could be and has been worse.
"Even the talking heads have trouble describing it as the end of the recession, and they usually like lying to us."
Two points on this one. I have trouble using talking heads as evidence because for every one I've seen take a stance, I've seen another take an opposing stance. Aside from that, if they usually like lying to us and they won't describe it as the end of the recession, that could be interpreted as it is the end of the recession.
"And everyone seems to forget that their are no new fields to go into."
What makes you frame this as a fact? From my observations, the majority of the workforce in a new field are the last to recognize the employment and market potential of that field.
"Well, I don't have any verifiable figures to back this up" exactly, you don't have any numbers to back this up, and you didn't provide any numbers to back up your previous post yet you make arguments as if these are facts
"And, EVERY TIME, there was an established emerging paradim for displaced workers to adopt. Farm hands were displaced, and many claimed the "end of the world", but in reality they had access to the emerging industrial age.
Hmm...so there was an emerging paradigm to replace displaced workers but those workers claimed "the end of the world" at the time. Any chance that they were afraid because they were not aware of the emerging paradigm and the reason its so obvious to us now is the 20/20 nature of hindsight?
"No so this time. Not even close."
"He seems to have analyzed the situation and has (rightly) concluded that the parameters that determined past experience have changed in a frank and material way."
"The model IS different this time and it is a major error on your part to blindly accept that your incomplete and flawed view of economic history will repeat itself."
So you have analysed the entire economic landscape and determined there is no emerging paradigm to replace displaced workers? Well, we are so fortunate to have access to someone of your abilities.
Seriously, on what do you base those statements? I'm not going to blindly accept that history will repeat itself but I'm also not going to blindly accept your rhetoric either. The fact that neither you nor I see an emerging sector to accommodate a large-scale displacement (that hasn't been realized) is no indicator of what will happen.
One was overpaid because of market conditions, the other overpaid because of government regulation?
"No, it's because most of them have a spouse who also works, usually in a job that pays better than their teaching job. With their combined incomes, they can live pretty decently, but only because one of them (usually the husband) picked a career with better earning potential."
Ahhh, so the teaching field has somehow been protected from the high divorce rate that the rest of the US has experienced.
As a project manager in the IT sector, I can attest to the nature of outsourcing. The fact of the matter is /. posters are much cheaper in India than in the US.