*Crap flows downhill. Plumbers are finely trained in how to go downhill. *When the crap doesn't flow downhill, Plumbers are used to dealing with the results and won't run away. *Hot Water under pressure isn't yet amenable to "Lego" plumbing. *Removing a serious blockage requires specialized equipment and specialized experience (that might be automatable into a rental product).
*There are a lot of regulations and code around your major plumbing lines. Most "handymen" and "handywomen" do not follow code. This could become a problem when it comes time to sell your house or your insurance might not cover a leak.
* Plumbers are also the people that fix gas lines. And you don't to mess around with something that could blow up your house. ---
The code and regulations issue is pretty significant since a lot of the code deals with preventing low frequency events. Something that happens 1 time in 1000 installations.
Actually, they are getting pretty darn good at vision computers now process all my hand written checks without needing a teller or for me to enter the amount. Automation of jobs which relied on human vision have been under automation pressure for half a decade.
Creative jobs won't go away. But jobs which are partially creative may be partially automated and partially reduced in number.
Pastor, plumber, electrician, and dentist were listed in an article I read recently.
The problem is that they all presume a functioning middle class which has money to pay for their services.
We could get into a situation where 50% of the population can't find jobs unless we pass lower overtime laws (32 hour week max) or provide a basic income to everyone from taxes on those who are working or some other entirely new approach.
I mean seriously- why not save $450 a year by slowly replacing your light bulbs with LED and CFL bulbs? Or putting in a little insulation. Or having a higher SEER rated AC unit (in the north or temperate areas) or a higher EER rated AC unit (in areas that are really hot for several months). (Seer is measured with a lower temperature difference than EER).
As for climate change. Well, maybe I care a little but we are not going address the root cause (too many human beings on the planet) so it's going to happen. Heck- the "max" population keeps rising lately. I think the max projected is up to 11 billion now.
So we really need a new name for when a company regularly avoids so much tax that it makes a profit off the tax system and another one for when it regularly pays zero taxes and shifts all of it's profits to another country while also consuming resources in the host company.
I kinda like parasiticorp for the second one.
The first is probably more "Evil scum back leeching bastards" but that seems too mild.
Right now, 85 people take in the same income as 3.5 billion other human workers.
Extend that trend forward 20 years to world with extensive automation and perhaps 400 people taking in the same income as 7.5 billion other human beings while another 1 billion making "decent" incomes still (the rest of the 3 billionis people being children, disabled, and senior citizens).
For the most part- once the wealth reaches the top- it stops. It doesn't come back down. It's not even spent. It's put into long term bonds. Bonds have to be paid for with taxes. So bonds are really just another way for the wealthiest to extract more income from the rest of society.
How do you run a society without taxing the people who hold all the money? How do you execute an economy when most of the wealth is all piled up on the opposite side from the consuming part.
In the face of ubiquitous automation, the very concept of money breaks down. Because "money" is just a token representing hours of your life. If no one needs your labor- the hours of your life have no value monetarily.
Which means no food- no entertainment- no medical care-- i.e. nothing to lose.
How do you run a world where 60% of the adult humans have nothing to lose?
North Korea has shown us one way of doing this. The other way is violent bloody revolutions which redistribute the wealth so the game can start over again.
"So far, neural networks have succeeded in imitating distinct musical styles, but truly original compositions have remained elusive. Miranda is tackling that problem with an orchestra of virtual musicians â" called agents â" that interact to compose original music. "
"The ChaoSynth "soundscapes," often accompanied by Miranda on the piano, have won awards for being "musical" despite the unearthly sound of their individual parts. While pleasing when blended in composition, the everyday sounds fit no known category when isolated. "
You know I see you continuing to bloviate, but I don't see any links to your job ads and I don't see any hard descriptions of the skill sets you are looking for or for the job you are trying to fill.
The thing you need to realize is that they are not rewarded based on your replacement succeeding as well as you.
They are rewarded for saving money. Executive bean counters can literally redefine the goal posts as well and declare success when the project failed by the original criteria.
And finally, they can move on to another job after a fairly short time to take their money saving ideas to the new company.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?... "Immigration attorneys from Cohen & Grigsby explains how they assist employers in running classified ads with the goal of NOT finding any qualified applicants, and the steps they go through to disqualify even the most qualified Americans in order to secure green cards for H-1b workers. "
And... Lou Dobbs: Law Firm teaches how to avoid hiring Americans A law firm is teaching corporations how to get around hiring American workers for jobs so they can import foreign workers under the H1-B visa program. Lawrence M. Lebowitz, the marketing director of the Pittsburgh law firm of Cohen & Grigsby, told executives at its Immigration Law Update Seminar how to advertise...
--
Quote: "Our goal is CLEARLY not to FIND a qualified us workers."
No things like pastors, editors, dentists, certain lawyers, ad executives, project management, inventors, certain freelance artists, etc.
Of course some creativity won't be worth keeping so it will be designed out when the process is automated.
Example: I was on a project in 2009. Rewrite the purchase order system. It turned out to be hugely complicated because every form on the P.O. form was overloaded and when we finished there were actually 31 ways to create P.O.s. Which meant a big project, budget, etc. And there was a lot of political power in each department that prevented any of us lower than them from changing or simplifying it.
So the executives bought a new PO program that had one way of doing things and said, "This is the only way to do it now". And that was that. All the "creativity" was out- and there was one way to do P.O.'s. It didn't have complete coverage- a few things had to be done manually or as attachments (to explain to approvers what was the PO was for in better detail than supported). But mostly, all the complexity of the system was cut away so it could be replaced with a $5000ish/year product that came off the shelf.
http://motherboard.vice.com/bl... "That's according to a 2013 Oxford study, which was highlighted in this week's Economist cover story. That study attempted to tally up the number of jobs that were susceptible to automization, and, surprise, a huge number were. Creative and skilled jobs done by humans were the most secureâ"think pastors, editors, and dentistsâ"but just about any rote task at all is now up for automation. Machinists, typists, even retail jobs, are predicted to disappear. "
And that's not even addressing the 3d printing aspects.
When you replace several machinists, you have a few good ones out of the 12 you let go- and you take the one who is willing to work 24/7 for $10 to $15 bucks an hour.
I think they are off on "editing"-- it's partially being automated, partially being crowdsourced, and what's left- they just have stopped doing. I've seen "howlers" in professionally published (not self published) paper and hard back books increasingly over the last 10 years.
Agree with you entirely on the white-collar jobs which are not 90%+ creative. Jobs with less creativity will be combined and the creative parts done by consultants or designed out.
For example, drug use of course but increasingly also
smoking drinking alcohol
Less common but more common by the year. engaging in risky sports. going on a vacation where you can't be reached by cell phone. Saying something unpopular that "reflects badly on the company" even tho you did it on your own time. being unreachable outside of working hours for more than a short period. taking certain prescription drugs. not taking certain prescription drugs (blood tests better show their presence).
So do you think that you could replace a good advertising executive with an automated process?
Or a creative lawyer who thinks of new ways to argue existing laws?
Isn't dealing with ever changing exceptions being creative?
----
One thing about the ever changing exceptions is that companies are eliminating those by eliminating options and reducing the domain space (or eliminating it entirely).
For example with customer service menu trees and automated websites (and even automated chatbots).
You have a point but it's really more about terminology.
There are many different kinds of intelligence. I think being "creative" is one of them. And there are many different kinds of "creativity". A person who is really creative at painting won't be creative as a lawyer (finding new ways to apply existing law) or an advertising executive (thinking of something "fresh" to penetrate the noise" or as a writer.
But a lot of smart people don't create as much as they do analyze. Their jobs are at risk.
And a lot of people can create an idea now and then, but given a shortage of jobs, standards would be very high.
And ordinary manual labor (even telemarketing) is going the way of the dodo now.
I've seen estimates of 2/3 of fast food jobs being gone within 15 years. And the jobs that remain will basically be loading supplies into robots. (i.e. automated drink machine, automated cooking machines, automated kiosk or voice recognition ordering machines-- even automated delivery and unloading to storage of bulk supplies.)
To employ people for $5,000 and sell products to people who make $80,000.
They do not see the fundamental problem.
It will resolve itself. Wages in china and india are up to $5,000 now and still doubling every 2-4 years (lower wages doubling faster).
Of course, that leaves the problem of robotics- which right now- today- can do work for less than poverty level wages in most of the world- and are only getting better an cheaper.
Robot repair jobs are two orders of magnitude less (1 worker and robots replaces 1000 workers). Automated procedures is replacing most of the thinking jobs.
The only jobs left will be "creative" jobs. Where the creative part of your jobs is less than half of your job- look for outsourcing. And about, oh, at least half of the global population isn't well suited for creative jobs since they are (by definition) below average intelligence.
Either a free stuff utopia or some kind of really terrible future is just down the road. Hopefully after I'm dead of course.
The amygdala of an atheist who disbelieves would put much more "alarm! Danger! Something weird is going on! You are probably being tricked!" than the brain of an atheist who simply lacked belief.
If the lack of a deity was extremely important to the atheist, they'd do or think just about anything to avoid logically concluding that the evidence of a deity was correct.
We mostly see this in religious people right now... you know.. "the face in my tortilla is a miracle created by my god" or "I survived out of 213 people when the airplane crashed because of my god". I matter and the world isn't just random chaos. That baby in aisle 7 died for a reason.
The irony being that many people are literally saved from death by their religion. For example, some religions are really strict about how you bath before meals, others are really strict about burning tainted bedding. Or when people of religion X go apeshit on everybody- other people of religion X are left alive.
Slashdot Mirror
There are not many successful 50 year old prostitutes or gigalos. Probably rarer than successful movie stars.
Mainly because...
*Crap flows downhill. Plumbers are finely trained in how to go downhill.
*When the crap doesn't flow downhill, Plumbers are used to dealing with the results and won't run away.
*Hot Water under pressure isn't yet amenable to "Lego" plumbing.
*Removing a serious blockage requires specialized equipment and specialized experience (that might be automatable into a rental product).
*There are a lot of regulations and code around your major plumbing lines. Most "handymen" and "handywomen" do not follow code. This could become a problem when it comes time to sell your house or your insurance might not cover a leak.
* Plumbers are also the people that fix gas lines. And you don't to mess around with something that could blow up your house.
---
The code and regulations issue is pretty significant since a lot of the code deals with preventing low frequency events. Something that happens 1 time in 1000 installations.
Actually, they are getting pretty darn good at vision computers now process all my hand written checks without needing a teller or for me to enter the amount. Automation of jobs which relied on human vision have been under automation pressure for half a decade.
Creative jobs won't go away. But jobs which are partially creative may be partially automated and partially reduced in number.
Pastor, plumber, electrician, and dentist were listed in an article I read recently.
The problem is that they all presume a functioning middle class which has money to pay for their services.
We could get into a situation where 50% of the population can't find jobs unless we pass lower overtime laws (32 hour week max) or provide a basic income to everyone from taxes on those who are working or some other entirely new approach.
It's really a paradigm shift coming.
I mean seriously- why not save $450 a year by slowly replacing your light bulbs with LED and CFL bulbs? Or putting in a little insulation. Or having a higher SEER rated AC unit (in the north or temperate areas) or a higher EER rated AC unit (in areas that are really hot for several months). (Seer is measured with a lower temperature difference than EER).
As for climate change. Well, maybe I care a little but we are not going address the root cause (too many human beings on the planet) so it's going to happen. Heck- the "max" population keeps rising lately. I think the max projected is up to 11 billion now.
Vending machines use the dollar coins and give dollar coins as change.
And then you get picked up because the card you bought was actually traceable to kiddy porn or a terrorist bomber used it to buy fertilizer.
Ala Tor.
And you can by interchangable USB devices that work on multiple operating systems made by over twenty different companies.
When we can buy windows from twenty different companies and it just works, then the two will be equivalent.
I wasn't aware the FAA's mandate went down to 12' in residential areas.
Cool.
Hmm.
It sounds more like a half death and a full death.
So there have been one and a half deaths as a result of Tesla automobile accidents.
I wonder if the tesla team will get to analyze the wreckage?
So we really need a new name for when a company regularly avoids so much tax that it makes a profit off the tax system and another one for when it regularly pays zero taxes and shifts all of it's profits to another country while also consuming resources in the host company.
I kinda like parasiticorp for the second one.
The first is probably more "Evil scum back leeching bastards" but that seems too mild.
Now now, you can only discriminate on the basis of your religion if you share the religion of the supreme court justices.
Jehovah's Witnesses and Christian Scientists beliefs are still subject to the constitution.
A little late to the party but worth calling attention to.
Yes... there are a few trade jobs which can't be easily automated or outsourced.
They depend on a robust middle class to support their current wages.
Right now, 85 people take in the same income as 3.5 billion other human workers.
Extend that trend forward 20 years to world with extensive automation and perhaps 400 people taking in the same income as 7.5 billion other human beings while another 1 billion making "decent" incomes still (the rest of the 3 billionis people being children, disabled, and senior citizens).
For the most part- once the wealth reaches the top- it stops. It doesn't come back down. It's not even spent. It's put into long term bonds. Bonds have to be paid for with taxes. So bonds are really just another way for the wealthiest to extract more income from the rest of society.
How do you run a society without taxing the people who hold all the money?
How do you execute an economy when most of the wealth is all piled up on the opposite side from the consuming part.
In the face of ubiquitous automation, the very concept of money breaks down. Because "money" is just a token representing hours of your life. If no one needs your labor- the hours of your life have no value monetarily.
Which means no food- no entertainment- no medical care-- i.e. nothing to lose.
How do you run a world where 60% of the adult humans have nothing to lose?
North Korea has shown us one way of doing this. The other way is violent bloody revolutions which redistribute the wealth so the game can start over again.
"So far, neural networks have succeeded in imitating distinct musical styles, but truly original compositions have remained elusive. Miranda is tackling that problem with an orchestra of virtual musicians â" called agents â" that interact to compose original music. "
"The ChaoSynth "soundscapes," often accompanied by Miranda on the piano, have won awards for being "musical" despite the unearthly sound of their individual parts. While pleasing when blended in composition, the everyday sounds fit no known category when isolated. "
Sounds like it still needs work.
You know I see you continuing to bloviate, but I don't see any links to your job ads and I don't see any hard descriptions of the skill sets you are looking for or for the job you are trying to fill.
Seriously man, time to put up or shut up.
The thing you need to realize is that they are not rewarded based on your replacement succeeding as well as you.
They are rewarded for saving money. Executive bean counters can literally redefine the goal posts as well and declare success when the project failed by the original criteria.
And finally, they can move on to another job after a fairly short time to take their money saving ideas to the new company.
Nope, it's a conspiracy.
Go to youtube.
Search for
"avoid hiring americans"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?...
"Immigration attorneys from Cohen & Grigsby explains how they assist employers in running classified ads with the goal of NOT finding any qualified applicants, and the steps they go through to disqualify even the most qualified Americans in order to secure green cards for H-1b workers. "
And...
Lou Dobbs: Law Firm teaches how to avoid hiring Americans
A law firm is teaching corporations how to get around hiring American workers for jobs so they can import foreign workers under the H1-B visa program. Lawrence M. Lebowitz, the marketing director of the Pittsburgh law firm of Cohen & Grigsby, told executives at its Immigration Law Update Seminar how to advertise...
--
Quote: "Our goal is CLEARLY not to FIND a qualified us workers."
No things like pastors, editors, dentists, certain lawyers, ad executives, project management, inventors, certain freelance artists, etc.
Of course some creativity won't be worth keeping so it will be designed out when the process is automated.
Example: I was on a project in 2009. Rewrite the purchase order system. It turned out to be hugely complicated because every form on the P.O. form was overloaded and when we finished there were actually 31 ways to create P.O.s. Which meant a big project, budget, etc. And there was a lot of political power in each department that prevented any of us lower than them from changing or simplifying it.
So the executives bought a new PO program that had one way of doing things and said, "This is the only way to do it now". And that was that. All the "creativity" was out- and there was one way to do P.O.'s. It didn't have complete coverage- a few things had to be done manually or as attachments (to explain to approvers what was the PO was for in better detail than supported). But mostly, all the complexity of the system was cut away so it could be replaced with a $5000ish/year product that came off the shelf.
A robot doesn't replace 1000 workers.
A group of robots supported by a few human workers replace 1000 workers. They cost 1/3 the price, don't make mistakes, don't get sick, etc.
Other machinists don't agree with you on the replacement aspect.
http://www.goiam.org/publicati...
http://motherboard.vice.com/bl...
"That's according to a 2013 Oxford study, which was highlighted in this week's Economist cover story. That study attempted to tally up the number of jobs that were susceptible to automization, and, surprise, a huge number were. Creative and skilled jobs done by humans were the most secureâ"think pastors, editors, and dentistsâ"but just about any rote task at all is now up for automation. Machinists, typists, even retail jobs, are predicted to disappear. "
And that's not even addressing the 3d printing aspects.
When you replace several machinists, you have a few good ones out of the 12 you let go- and you take the one who is willing to work 24/7 for $10 to $15 bucks an hour.
I think they are off on "editing"-- it's partially being automated, partially being crowdsourced, and what's left- they just have stopped doing. I've seen "howlers" in professionally published (not self published) paper and hard back books increasingly over the last 10 years.
Agree with you entirely on the white-collar jobs which are not 90%+ creative. Jobs with less creativity will be combined and the creative parts done by consultants or designed out.
For example, drug use of course but increasingly also
smoking
drinking alcohol
Less common but more common by the year.
engaging in risky sports.
going on a vacation where you can't be reached by cell phone.
Saying something unpopular that "reflects badly on the company" even tho you did it on your own time.
being unreachable outside of working hours for more than a short period.
taking certain prescription drugs.
not taking certain prescription drugs (blood tests better show their presence).
etc.
I'm sure you can think of more now.
Interesting.
So do you think that you could replace a good advertising executive with an automated process?
Or a creative lawyer who thinks of new ways to argue existing laws?
Isn't dealing with ever changing exceptions being creative?
----
One thing about the ever changing exceptions is that companies are eliminating those by eliminating options and reducing the domain space (or eliminating it entirely).
For example with customer service menu trees and automated websites (and even automated chatbots).
You have a point but it's really more about terminology.
There are many different kinds of intelligence. I think being "creative" is one of them. And there are many different kinds of "creativity". A person who is really creative at painting won't be creative as a lawyer (finding new ways to apply existing law) or an advertising executive (thinking of something "fresh" to penetrate the noise" or as a writer.
But a lot of smart people don't create as much as they do analyze. Their jobs are at risk.
And a lot of people can create an idea now and then, but given a shortage of jobs, standards would be very high.
And ordinary manual labor (even telemarketing) is going the way of the dodo now.
I've seen estimates of 2/3 of fast food jobs being gone within 15 years. And the jobs that remain will basically be loading supplies into robots. (i.e. automated drink machine, automated cooking machines, automated kiosk or voice recognition ordering machines-- even automated delivery and unloading to storage of bulk supplies.)
To employ people for $5,000 and sell products to people who make $80,000.
They do not see the fundamental problem.
It will resolve itself. Wages in china and india are up to $5,000 now and still doubling every 2-4 years (lower wages doubling faster).
Of course, that leaves the problem of robotics- which right now- today- can do work for less than poverty level wages in most of the world- and are only getting better an cheaper.
Robot repair jobs are two orders of magnitude less (1 worker and robots replaces 1000 workers). Automated procedures is replacing most of the thinking jobs.
The only jobs left will be "creative" jobs. Where the creative part of your jobs is less than half of your job- look for outsourcing. And about, oh, at least half of the global population isn't well suited for creative jobs since they are (by definition) below average intelligence.
Either a free stuff utopia or some kind of really terrible future is just down the road.
Hopefully after I'm dead of course.
And I should say..
The amygdala of an atheist who disbelieves would put much more "alarm! Danger! Something weird is going on! You are probably being tricked!" than the brain of an atheist who simply lacked belief.
If the lack of a deity was extremely important to the atheist, they'd do or think just about anything to avoid logically concluding that the evidence of a deity was correct.
We mostly see this in religious people right now... you know.. "the face in my tortilla is a miracle created by my god" or "I survived out of 213 people when the airplane crashed because of my god". I matter and the world isn't just random chaos. That baby in aisle 7 died for a reason.
The irony being that many people are literally saved from death by their religion. For example, some religions are really strict about how you bath before meals, others are really strict about burning tainted bedding. Or when people of religion X go apeshit on everybody- other people of religion X are left alive.