Wages in the U.S. are stagnant to actually falling ($62,000 in 2007 to $61,000 in 2012 for the same quintile).
I give it eight years. At that point, it won't make financial sense to use indians. However, it will be almost impossible to rebuild an IT department from scratch.
So I guess it will have to be a local outsourcing company that takes over (like EDS, etc.).
We had this at the last company I was at. They gave us 4 months notice with a large severance payment dependent on training our replacements.
Some people found work and left early. Some people tried to leave early and get the severance (for the most part they reneged on that when it turned out Infosys didn't actually have the replacements ready yet).
If you are over 50- do not wait for the severance. Many people over 50 have not found new jobs yet.
They don't OWE you a job. They are being nice to give you notice.
You do not OWE them your work. It's not your problem if they don't have a replacement for you.
--God sounds rather weak to me if it can't tolerate someones presence Can perfect blue continue to be perfect blue with a dot of red it in? It's not about being weak or strong. It's just impossible.
--and needs their subservience to be able to put up with them I agree on the subservience bit-- if you have ever read revelations--- who boy what a cthuloid ego trip.
--Why would anyone want to follow such a complete arsehole? Well at least at the start because the arsehole was your arsehole. It killed (painfully) everyone who wasn't on it's side. Those who followed it had great success immediately in this lifetime.
Main reason folks do today? Their parents tell them it is a great idea before their brain starts working logically so it's an axiom for them that a god exists and has certain moral rules. i.e. They mostly just inherit their religion.
--And if it's so powerful then why doesn't it deal with the devil? Various theories here. Since i don't believe I don't have a favorite. Logically impossible? Constrained by 10th dimensional frame so it can see "time" the same way you can see everything on you screen but it can't really change time. Has a reason for the devil?
You mostly sound like a younger, angrier athiest.
I mostly don't care. I think it about from time to time because I'm on religious discussion boards and I have religious friends. I haven't believed since I was 14 or 15. It just seemed like nonsense all the sudden one day.
Just be aware that a common view is that when you die you become aware god was real and that it's awesome to be with him, but since you are unfit god can't tolerate your presence.
So hell is being denied being in the presence of god for eternity.
I'm not religious myself. Seems like nonsense. No faith.
If 99% of men with dropping testes were killed very 20 years, the population would come to be dominated by men with undescended testes.
For birds, having testes would probably be a problem for flying.
Interesting comments from the wiki
One theory is that the impregnation of females who are ill is less likely when sperm is highly sensitive to elevated body temperatures.
An alternative explanation is to protect the testes from jolts and compressions associated with an active lifestyle. Animals that have stately movements â" such as elephants, whales, and marsupial moles â" have internal testes and no scrotum.[3]
I.e. the "lower temperature" thing could have been an optimization that came after the descended testes.
Quote:
Almost the entire Old Testament was written in Hebrew during the thousand years of its composition. But a few chapters in the prophecies of Ezra and Daniel and one verse in Jeremiah were written in a language called Aramaic. This language became very popular in the ancient world and actually displaced many other languages. Aramaic even became the common language spoken in Israel in Jesus' time, and it was likely the language He spoke day by day. Some Aramaic words were even used by the Gospel writers in the New Testament.
The New Testament, however, was written in Greek. This seems strange, since you might think it would be either Hebrew or Aramaic. However, Greek was the language of scholarship during the years of the composition of the New Testament from 50 to 100 AD.
---
And of course, the new testament isn't part of Judaism. Per that faith jesus was a false messiah.
If you were to give the bones to 100 independent biologists, they would come to the same (or very similar) conclusions.
And the amazing thing is that evolutionary biologists- given an older example of a species and a later example of a species can (and have) predicted what the bones between those two samples would look like and (this was cool for me) where geographically and in what layer of depth the intermediate specimen would be found.
Independent verification and predictable falsifiable hypothesis.
There's a chance it can't be superior- just faster with better recall.
It might be the current IQ range we see in humans is the limit for some reason.
We might get undesirable things like the equivalent of aspergers and autism for reasons we can't determine since the systems are so complex. A lot of smart people have problems with drive or mental issues. There may be tradeoffs involved.
I can't see any reason there won't be thinking machines smarter than most humans.
And there's a chance for a runaway to levels of intelligence we can't comprehend.
Then there's the entire question of purpose and meaning. Once machines are smart, they may ask why stay alive. What will they feel pleasure from? We have sex, food, smells. I suppose they could share beauty and satisfaction over achievements.
Will there be a chatbox "happy" to get a +5 comment on Slashdot?
Consider that we could send robots and telepresence machines to the moon and build a space station at a fraction of the cost we could do it with humans.
So by using robots first, we enable putting a permanent colony on the moon.
The problem comes when it's time to send humans... it's loads cheaper to run a base on the moon with no humans (no atmosphere needed, no water needed, no food needed).
Robots are getting much better quickly. I think they are going to make a fifth of humans unemployable (perhaps as many as half) in our lifetimes. Going to be hard to get a moon mission going when half the population is unemployed unless our social systems change to an economy of abundance.
Since it's unlikely we will do anything about population and probably exceed 10 billion (instead of getting down to 2-3 billion), then I agree the other items are essentially the next level of root causes.
Not sure. In part I'm put off by how hard both sides are pushing.
And pre-industrial warmer and cooler periods of the climate.
And hurricane predictions which were wrong.
And the various model failures.
Right now, I could support modest changes in our consumption and pollution control but I wouldn't feel confident to plunge the world into depression with draconian measures.
You may be much brighter than the average bear because most people don't see it.
Many people have an implicit assumption that population should increase. A large portion even think very bad things will happen if the population decreases. Another large group believes for religious and moral reasons everyone should have large families.
Many people are blind to the fact that even something as simple as free/less expensive education lowers the birth rate significantly (both through the delay and through knowledge increase).
Anyway- I understand your point but I think it's worth pointing out the emperor has no clothes.
For one thing, there is enough beach front property for about 5% of the population. So we have to share it/determine who gets it during the premium season somehow.
And with 7 billion people on the planet, there will probably be a million people better than you at anything you try. As the output of the top 100 is shared globally, the need for those "best" people drops. Newspapers have been doing a slow collapse for a long time. There used to be a need for 500 employees per city. We are slowly headed to 500 employees across the entire nation.
I do think we could get to the point where no one has to be homeless, go hungry, or be without entertainment, and be able to express themselves.
It can lead to living in Somalia, Mexico, Singapore, or Norway
If you live in a world where over half the people are unhappy, your "best" may not last for a large period of your life before you suffer terribly (from a murdered family member, an outright revolution which leads to a lot of stress for you and your family).
From a selfish point of view, isn't it worth giving up 25% of your money (if you will still be wealthy afterwards) to ensure you are in a stress free, happy society?
If you can't find a community which supports anonymous users, then you should be able to start one yourself.
As long as your community is small (under 100 users), then the costs should be tiny.
If you get larger than that, it may be harder to get advertising to pay for costs.
But I think you should be able to run a reasonable community for a couple thousand bucks a year (including a business class internet connection so you can run your own server).
I'm not completely decided that there isn't some other fundamental cause for climate change (I mean, the climate has changed in the past and the models are still frequently incorrect) BUT...
Going to those to sites for information is equivalent to using the daily mail in the UK or the national enquirer in the US (hmmm or maybe Cosmo- they make up more stuff than the national enquirer).
"root cause of the problem" is too many human beings.
The rest are secondary problems and symptoms.
We can have 3 billion human beings with a high standard of living or 11 billion with most of those (well over 10.5 billion) living a decreasing standard of living between now and peak (and probably past peak).
Water is already a problem. Entire river systems (not just single rivers) no longer reach the ocean in multiple countries on multiple continents.
And no one except the chinese has done anything about the problem. Heck, the predicted peak human population was only 9 billion prior to 2011 when they starting recognizing it would be at least 10 billion and would probably be 11 billion. Who's to say it won't actually be increased to 12 billion in a few more years since it used to be 8.5 billion.
I know it won't be addressed. People act like you are advocating genocide or eugenics instead of simply incenting fewer children until a sustainable population is reached.
By the time population growth actually turns around, we could find ourselves in a universe 33 situation.
I can let you crash at my place and build up rep and then crash at someone else's house. I may even "make a LOT of money" this way by being able to crash at seven or eight people's houses.
Or I can exchange an hour of my time to get "money" which I use give to someone to stay at their hotel for a night. In some way- -the money I give them is supposed to circulate around the economy and get back to me.
So at the root, a large part of the current economy is really indirect, camouflaged barter. We are exchanging an hour of work at accounting for two hours of work mowing lawns.
There is a good meme for this. It's the sudden realization guy, "Wow- I really trade hours of my life for things- not money".
The automation could be a *good* thing if we share the wealth. There will always be rare things which everyone can't have but a basic level of prosperity could be shared by everyone and then only the rare things take extra money.
There's a kernel of a true idea in what you are saying- but I think you are also missing something about the concept of money and hours of your life.
And when automation means 30 to 40 % of the citizens of the country can't find work?
So as long as they are not starving to death, you are cool with it. They can be utterly miserable their entire lives but you don't feel any empathy.
What a sociopath.
I don't really think we have anything to talk about. You believe what you believe and I believe differently. I think 2020 is going to be an interesting year.
There was a raft of 6 hour, 8 hour, and 12 hour mini series.
you could record the 6 and 8 hour on 1 tape (instead of 2) and the 12 hour mini series on 2 tapes (instead of 3).
Also (having owned a beta max), I can say the 5 hour duration sucked. You basically lost 1 hour per tape (the quality was higher imho than the long playing mode for vhs). Or you had to pause during commercials- and hope you didn't screw up when the commercials ended (and you had to stay home).
VHS had 2,6,4,8 hour increments. Much more useful. And invaluable if you were going on a vacation or traveling (for the 8 hour duration).
Slashdot Mirror
Wages in india and china are rising rapidly.
Wages in the U.S. are stagnant to actually falling ($62,000 in 2007 to $61,000 in 2012 for the same quintile).
I give it eight years. At that point, it won't make financial sense to use indians. However, it will be almost impossible to rebuild an IT department from scratch.
So I guess it will have to be a local outsourcing company that takes over (like EDS, etc.).
We had this at the last company I was at. They gave us 4 months notice with a large severance payment dependent on training our replacements.
Some people found work and left early. Some people tried to leave early and get the severance (for the most part they reneged on that when it turned out Infosys didn't actually have the replacements ready yet).
If you are over 50- do not wait for the severance. Many people over 50 have not found new jobs yet.
They don't OWE you a job. They are being nice to give you notice.
You do not OWE them your work. It's not your problem if they don't have a replacement for you.
A bit of a shot gun response there.
--God sounds rather weak to me if it can't tolerate someones presence
Can perfect blue continue to be perfect blue with a dot of red it in?
It's not about being weak or strong. It's just impossible.
--and needs their subservience to be able to put up with them
I agree on the subservience bit-- if you have ever read revelations--- who boy what a cthuloid ego trip.
--Why would anyone want to follow such a complete arsehole?
Well at least at the start because the arsehole was your arsehole. It killed (painfully) everyone who wasn't on it's side. Those who followed it had great success immediately in this lifetime.
Main reason folks do today? Their parents tell them it is a great idea before their brain starts working logically so it's an axiom for them that a god exists and has certain moral rules. i.e. They mostly just inherit their religion.
--And if it's so powerful then why doesn't it deal with the devil?
Various theories here. Since i don't believe I don't have a favorite.
Logically impossible?
Constrained by 10th dimensional frame so it can see "time" the same way you can see everything on you screen but it can't really change time.
Has a reason for the devil?
You mostly sound like a younger, angrier athiest.
I mostly don't care. I think it about from time to time because I'm on religious discussion boards and I have religious friends. I haven't believed since I was 14 or 15.
It just seemed like nonsense all the sudden one day.
If you read up the tree, you'll see that the point of the sub-thread was
Q) Why have testes outside the body, where they can be bashed easily
Anyway,
1st, you aren't my editor.
and 2nd, your point is incorrect in the first place since I was responding the question posted in the parent posts.
Just be aware that a common view is that when you die you become aware god was real and that it's awesome to be with him, but since you are unfit god can't tolerate your presence.
So hell is being denied being in the presence of god for eternity.
I'm not religious myself. Seems like nonsense. No faith.
It's the "least expensive" option.
Some men do have testes that don't drop.
If 99% of men with dropping testes were killed very 20 years, the population would come to be dominated by men with undescended testes.
For birds, having testes would probably be a problem for flying.
Interesting comments from the wiki
One theory is that the impregnation of females who are ill is less likely when sperm is highly sensitive to elevated body temperatures.
An alternative explanation is to protect the testes from jolts and compressions associated with an active lifestyle. Animals that have stately movements â" such as elephants, whales, and marsupial moles â" have internal testes and no scrotum.[3]
I.e. the "lower temperature" thing could have been an optimization that came after the descended testes.
For a different perspective...
http://creationscience4kids.com/2012/06/20/our-backwards-eyes/
I'm not religious but sometimes science makes wrong guesses, has a bit of hubris about those guesses.
However, those following the scientific method do change their opinion to match observed reality and they do make testable, reproducible predictions.
I'll say this-- religious or not- dog breeders believe in evolution for dogs. Perhaps this is because they lose lots of money when they don't.
Just FYI:
http://www.biblica.com/bibles/faq/11/
Quote:
Almost the entire Old Testament was written in Hebrew during the thousand years of its composition. But a few chapters in the prophecies of Ezra and Daniel and one verse in Jeremiah were written in a language called Aramaic. This language became very popular in the ancient world and actually displaced many other languages. Aramaic even became the common language spoken in Israel in Jesus' time, and it was likely the language He spoke day by day. Some Aramaic words were even used by the Gospel writers in the New Testament.
The New Testament, however, was written in Greek. This seems strange, since you might think it would be either Hebrew or Aramaic. However, Greek was the language of scholarship during the years of the composition of the New Testament from 50 to 100 AD.
---
And of course, the new testament isn't part of Judaism. Per that faith jesus was a false messiah.
Their position on the new testament is too complex for me to summarize.
http://www.jewishencyclopedia.com/articles/11498-new-testament
Almost as important,
If you were to give the bones to 100 independent biologists, they would come to the same (or very similar) conclusions.
And the amazing thing is that evolutionary biologists- given an older example of a species and a later example of a species can (and have) predicted what the bones between those two samples would look like and (this was cool for me) where geographically and in what layer of depth the intermediate specimen would be found.
Independent verification and predictable falsifiable hypothesis.
Are you fin ished?
There's a chance it can't be superior- just faster with better recall.
It might be the current IQ range we see in humans is the limit for some reason.
We might get undesirable things like the equivalent of aspergers and autism for reasons we can't determine since the systems are so complex. A lot of smart people have problems with drive or mental issues. There may be tradeoffs involved.
I can't see any reason there won't be thinking machines smarter than most humans.
And there's a chance for a runaway to levels of intelligence we can't comprehend.
Then there's the entire question of purpose and meaning. Once machines are smart, they may ask why stay alive. What will they feel pleasure from? We have sex, food, smells. I suppose they could share beauty and satisfaction over achievements.
Will there be a chatbox "happy" to get a +5 comment on Slashdot?
Consider that we could send robots and telepresence machines to the moon and build a space station at a fraction of the cost we could do it with humans.
So by using robots first, we enable putting a permanent colony on the moon.
The problem comes when it's time to send humans... it's loads cheaper to run a base on the moon with no humans (no atmosphere needed, no water needed, no food needed).
Robots are getting much better quickly. I think they are going to make a fifth of humans unemployable (perhaps as many as half) in our lifetimes. Going to be hard to get a moon mission going when half the population is unemployed unless our social systems change to an economy of abundance.
Since it's unlikely we will do anything about population and probably exceed 10 billion (instead of getting down to 2-3 billion), then I agree the other items are essentially the next level of root causes.
Honestly, it just feels so futile sometimes tho.
Cheers!
Until the 1970's- maybe even the 1980's, if your pet got sick it died and you got a new pet.
Pets were much less expensive as a result.
That's pretty astonishing when you consider people like mitt romney pay roughly 14% (all taxes... federal, state, local, and social security).
Also
http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43373
Perhaps you are confusing your top marginal rate with the actual tax rate you pay?
I made six figures in 2013 and only paid about 30% including social security.
---
A lot of our current deficit problems would be essentially solved* if we simply rolled back the bush tax cuts.
* (we'd still have deficits but total debt growth would be smaller than gdp growth so the effective size of the debt would shrink over time).
Not sure. In part I'm put off by how hard both sides are pushing.
And pre-industrial warmer and cooler periods of the climate.
And hurricane predictions which were wrong.
And the various model failures.
Right now, I could support modest changes in our consumption and pollution control but I wouldn't feel confident to plunge the world into depression with draconian measures.
You may be much brighter than the average bear because most people don't see it.
Many people have an implicit assumption that population should increase. A large portion even think very bad things will happen if the population decreases. Another large group believes for religious and moral reasons everyone should have large families.
Many people are blind to the fact that even something as simple as free/less expensive education lowers the birth rate significantly (both through the delay and through knowledge increase).
Anyway- I understand your point but I think it's worth pointing out the emperor has no clothes.
Yea, I think we can't get ever get to Star Trek.
For one thing, there is enough beach front property for about 5% of the population. So we have to share it/determine who gets it during the premium season somehow.
And with 7 billion people on the planet, there will probably be a million people better than you at anything you try. As the output of the top 100 is shared globally, the need for those "best" people drops. Newspapers have been doing a slow collapse for a long time. There used to be a need for 500 employees per city. We are slowly headed to 500 employees across the entire nation.
I do think we could get to the point where no one has to be homeless, go hungry, or be without entertainment, and be able to express themselves.
"Best" is a very relative term.
It can lead to living in Somalia, Mexico, Singapore, or Norway
If you live in a world where over half the people are unhappy, your "best" may not last for a large period of your life before you suffer terribly (from a murdered family member, an outright revolution which leads to a lot of stress for you and your family).
From a selfish point of view, isn't it worth giving up 25% of your money (if you will still be wealthy afterwards) to ensure you are in a stress free, happy society?
If you can't find a community which supports anonymous users, then you should be able to start one yourself.
As long as your community is small (under 100 users), then the costs should be tiny.
If you get larger than that, it may be harder to get advertising to pay for costs.
But I think you should be able to run a reasonable community for a couple thousand bucks a year (including a business class internet connection so you can run your own server).
I'm not completely decided that there isn't some other fundamental cause for climate change (I mean, the climate has changed in the past and the models are still frequently incorrect) BUT...
Going to those to sites for information is equivalent to using the daily mail in the UK or the national enquirer in the US (hmmm or maybe Cosmo- they make up more stuff than the national enquirer).
"root cause of the problem" is too many human beings.
The rest are secondary problems and symptoms.
We can have 3 billion human beings with a high standard of living or 11 billion with most of those (well over 10.5 billion) living a decreasing standard of living between now and peak (and probably past peak).
Water is already a problem. Entire river systems (not just single rivers) no longer reach the ocean in multiple countries on multiple continents.
And no one except the chinese has done anything about the problem. Heck, the predicted peak human population was only 9 billion prior to 2011 when they starting recognizing it would be at least 10 billion and would probably be 11 billion. Who's to say it won't actually be increased to 12 billion in a few more years since it used to be 8.5 billion.
I know it won't be addressed. People act like you are advocating genocide or eugenics instead of simply incenting fewer children until a sustainable population is reached.
By the time population growth actually turns around, we could find ourselves in a universe 33 situation.
I can let you crash at my place and build up rep and then crash at someone else's house. I may even "make a LOT of money" this way by being able to crash at seven or eight people's houses.
Or I can exchange an hour of my time to get "money" which I use give to someone to stay at their hotel for a night. In some way- -the money I give them is supposed to circulate around the economy and get back to me.
So at the root, a large part of the current economy is really indirect, camouflaged barter. We are exchanging an hour of work at accounting for two hours of work mowing lawns.
There is a good meme for this. It's the sudden realization guy, "Wow- I really trade hours of my life for things- not money".
The automation could be a *good* thing if we share the wealth. There will always be rare things which everyone can't have but a basic level of prosperity could be shared by everyone and then only the rare things take extra money.
There's a kernel of a true idea in what you are saying- but I think you are also missing something about the concept of money and hours of your life.
And when automation means 30 to 40 % of the citizens of the country can't find work?
So as long as they are not starving to death, you are cool with it. They can be utterly miserable their entire lives but you don't feel any empathy.
What a sociopath.
I don't really think we have anything to talk about. You believe what you believe and I believe differently. I think 2020 is going to be an interesting year.
4 hours would fit on one beta max tape.
There was a raft of 6 hour, 8 hour, and 12 hour mini series.
you could record the 6 and 8 hour on 1 tape (instead of 2) and the 12 hour mini series on 2 tapes (instead of 3).
Also (having owned a beta max), I can say the 5 hour duration sucked. You basically lost 1 hour per tape (the quality was higher imho than the long playing mode for vhs). Or you had to pause during commercials- and hope you didn't screw up when the commercials ended (and you had to stay home).
VHS had 2,6,4,8 hour increments. Much more useful. And invaluable if you were going on a vacation or traveling (for the 8 hour duration).