There just aren't enough rare products to give to everyone. There's a very limited supply of prime real estate. A vanishingly tiny supply of super premium prime real estate. There is a rare supply of particular human beings who have special talents. There is a rare supply of items crafted by select highly skilled human beings. There's even a rare supply of medium, high, premium, ultra premium food supplies. Only a small number of people are allowed to climb everest each year (it's like a traffic jam already) and they each pay about $75,000 to $100,000 for the privilege. We have plentiful low quality food.
We are in a transition to where some things might become much less expensive. But even if you tried to eliminate money- there will be a way to determine who gets to sit in the center of the front row.
Until then, it will cost millions to billions of dollars to build factories. It will cost money to buy the robots. And to research and create the free power. And to induce the "top" people to work for you instead of someone else.
"Free" is a utopian pipe dream for many items.
We can hope that basic housing, food, medical care, education, etc. could be made "free" as automation greatly reduces employment options. It might buy us a couple decades of peace.
I already have nanny... but I'm working her 90 hours a week. Three other nanny's are homeless and starving.
I'm paying her for 40 hours a week a total of $400 per week.
Meanwhile, after paying for everything, I'm making 265 times as much as her.
I complain bitterly that I have to contribute anything at all to the welfare of the three other nanny's.
First, just from a moral standpoint- is it fair that I get 265 times as much when half the cause is that I was born into it (in the u.s. your parents income is 50% of the factor of your income-- the "winners" of the prior generation are allowed to give their children a leg up so after a couple iterations, it's no longer a meritocracy but an oligarchy.)
Now, on a more practical point, if I keep this behavior up, there is a lot of history of those nanny's gutting me like a stuck pig and taking all my stuff- or crushing my head with a rock- or kidnapping and murdering my children. Plus, at a fundamental level it bothers me to step over all those starving people and to see reports about them on the news so unless I'm a sociopath, I'm going to naturally support some kind of charity for them. Unless I can just manage to remap them as "losers" and "layabouts" even tho the real issue has nothing to do with their work ethic. They are human beings just the same as I am.
Imagine the walls and ceiling of your house being completely configurable. No need for discrete lighting.
Real time strategy games and MMORGS projected in your entire field of vision and reacting to your body movements and voice.
Appropriate sized display screens for content. The entire wall for a nature documentary, an 80" 'screen' for an action movie, a 43" 'screen' for an ordinary cooking show or sitcom.
I'm interested in the 4k as computer monitors too.
But for now... don't have 8,000 (on sale!) to drop.
Beta max was okay with movies. It failed on the 8 hour Mini Series. (truly a random event- we don't have 8 hour mini series any more and we didn't have them just a few years before video recording machines).
L-830 300 min (5 h)
For movies you could use L500 or L750 or lower the quality and use an L370 (and at lower quality, it was still very good compared to VHS.
And you are correct, VHS was cheaper per machine (due to the larger market providing economies of scale). .
The parent post I was responding to said: If your factory has 1000 workers each doing 40 hours a week, and automation makes 250 of those human jobs unnecessary,
As for the second part- not really. The reasons we allow corporations and companies to exist is that they are good for a majority of citizens.
The day corporations and companies start to only benefit 49% of the population at the expense of 51% of the population, they are no longer the right thing to do.
If firing 250 workers saves the corporation but either results in the death of those 250 workers or increases the cost to the rest of society dramatically then you also have a problem.
Yes-- needlessly keeping people on the job lowers profits- but does provide some benefits to the corporation too. In many cases, a sizable percentage of those salary savings go to executives as bonuses (benefiting 2% of the population at the expense of 98%) or are frittered away on expensive wasteful products. In some cases the supposedly good layoffs do a lot of damage to the company- but the executive skates free with a couple million and moves on down the road.
At my last company- the lost business in the first year from our big new project dwarfed the multimillion dollar bonuses given to the executives.
And some of them are now executives at other businesses.
Because if one company lays off the 250 then they are more profitable.
This means they can undercut your prices by 10%... and every consumer (including you) is going to buy the cheaper product.
They also have easier access to capital since they are more profitable so every investor (including you...) buys their stock.
And then they buy out the competition and spread their practice.
I don't have a good solution-- just giving you some reasons.
It can't be done by companies. It has to come from society- and the government.
We could fix unemployment tomorrow if we said you must pay double time for any hours over 40 per week and there are no exceptions except for people who manage groups of other people in a recognizable hierarchical structure. (i.e. no management loops).
IT people are being worked 60 hours (or more). So right there, every 2 jobs becomes 3 .
Doesn't help people directly in fields where the work week is 40 hours or less. But it should help them generally.
Save as if you will not be allowed to work after you reach 50. Because that's what's happened to many of the people I know in the compute field.
Then there's the whole outsourcing and offshoring thing... but serious age discrimination is rampant in the IT field and the supreme court generally gutted age discrimination protection in 2009.
Why do you think job sites want to know your high school graduation DATE?
1) is a function of good design. A modular design and a teeny bit of self diagnostics combined with a driverless repair vehicle will be able to address this. (and is already being used in some sectors).
2) is already being done now.
3) is a completely different issue.
3a) having tools which automate large parts of the design process really serve in the way that industrialization did in the past. They make a required human designer more productive. Problem is the world wide requirement for robot designers is probably in the 100's.
3b) having a truly intelligent tool means we have AI which means we have genius level artificial beings running around. That's probably a hundred years away. We don't want true AI because of the ethical (slavery) and the risk (revolution or failure of friendliness).
Yup and the ratio will be 1 new job to 100 jobs replaced by robots... then 1 new job to 1000 jobs replaced by robots.
Robot designers will require a certain degree of creativity but robot repair (especially of modular design) is highly automatizable.
As for building then. I think you need to reconsider that. Apple's new factory to build iPhones is going to have almost no human employs and Foxxcon intends to replace a million humans with robots. They are currently about 10% along the way.
But think about receptionists and customer service. At many places I call there isn't even a human option any more.
Simple jobs are going away faster than we can create them.
Over half the population is only suited for simple jobs.
Worse than that- repetitive analytical jobs are also being automated now. So you've got another slice of people who were actually smarter than average but not all that creative out of work.
How do you operate society when 60% of the population is unemployable?
Well, I guess we just drive around with a big copper net over our car then.
Not everywhere has complete coverage like london or new york yet but your point is valid.
On the flip side, I *very* much doubt that every sensor has been replaced yet. I mean, come on- we have bridges falling down from rot but we are going to install new sensors before they are needed?
But eventually it will be true in the big population areas. Still doubt it outside of them.
I use them a lot. They were on for about 3 years solid tho I've been putting them to sleep the last year.
Your failure rate seems suspiciously high.
I also have several USB drives of similar ages.
The only drives I've ever lost were 3 flash drives. Two of them mini drives which got very hot during use. And an old 88 mb drive back in the 90's. (cost me $88!)
Hi Bmxeroh: It's real and here is just one of many links you can find on it when you google it. It is starting to be addressed (this is from May of 2012) but it's not fixed yet. It was still happening earlier this year.
Quote: One involves the original large block electronic trading outlet, Institutional Networks Corporation aka Instinet, and what happened when it opened up its order flow to automated traders.
"The institutional clients complained immediately. If an institutional client places a bid to buy 5,000 shares at 24 1/8, the automated trading firms instantly placed a bid for a few hundred shares at 1/64 higher. They did this with every stock. If the institutional clients canceled their bids, the automated traders canceled their higher bids as well."
That is found on Location 404 of 5286 on the Kindle edition of âoeBroken Markets,â(TM)â(TM)by Sal Arnuk and Joe Saluzzi. They are partners, co-founders and co-heads of equity trading of Themis Trading LLC, an agency broker that trades for institutional money managers and hedge funds.
(deletia)
Front running is the illegal practice of a stock broker executing orders on a security for its own account while taking advantage of advance knowledge of pending orders from its customers.
Interestingly enough, the Securities and Exchange Commission on May 30 filed a notice that the broker overseer, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, wanted to amend its front-running rulebook, to cover front-running of block transactions.
What they are doing would be called illegal front running if it were being done by humans at human speed.
By placing themselves next to the market, they see your incoming stock- buy the stock cheaper- and then sell it to you at a markup (very tiny but still, your "market price order" ends up being filled at a higher price and you lost money). I'm surprised you are unaware of it, the practice has been widely reported.
As I said, it's ILLEGAL when humans do this.
Some of the ways they manipulate the markets are also illegal to close to illegal when done by human beings. I also support an order cancellation fee of 1 penny per cancelled order.
I disagree with cancelling trades for algos when they screw up. If they buy a stock for too high or sell a stock for too low, they should have to eat it.
I don't think the algos have much effect on investors and traders who trade for periods over 4 weeks. The cycles they create are very similar to humans. I'm retired and I made more than I spent this month.
The biggest challenge for me is when the government changes the ground rules (like when they changed the accounting rules in march 2009 so banks could hold nonperforming loans on their books at full face value). Still- now I sort of expect the government to mess with the market.
Expecting a drop to as far as dow 8000 in 2 years- but first three to six more months upward and sideways. Going to be the investment opportunity of a lifetime.
Slashdot Mirror
There just aren't enough rare products to give to everyone.
There's a very limited supply of prime real estate. A vanishingly tiny supply of super premium prime real estate.
There is a rare supply of particular human beings who have special talents.
There is a rare supply of items crafted by select highly skilled human beings.
There's even a rare supply of medium, high, premium, ultra premium food supplies.
Only a small number of people are allowed to climb everest each year (it's like a traffic jam already) and they each pay about $75,000 to $100,000 for the privilege.
We have plentiful low quality food.
We are in a transition to where some things might become much less expensive. But even if you tried to eliminate money- there will be a way to determine who gets to sit in the center of the front row.
Until then, it will cost millions to billions of dollars to build factories. It will cost money to buy the robots. And to research and create the free power. And to induce the "top" people to work for you instead of someone else.
"Free" is a utopian pipe dream for many items.
We can hope that basic housing, food, medical care, education, etc. could be made "free" as automation greatly reduces employment options. It might buy us a couple decades of peace.
You are oversimplifying the situation.
I already have nanny... but I'm working her 90 hours a week.
Three other nanny's are homeless and starving.
I'm paying her for 40 hours a week a total of $400 per week.
Meanwhile, after paying for everything, I'm making 265 times as much as her.
I complain bitterly that I have to contribute anything at all to the welfare of the three other nanny's.
First, just from a moral standpoint- is it fair that I get 265 times as much when half the cause is that I was born into it (in the u.s. your parents income is 50% of the factor of your income-- the "winners" of the prior generation are allowed to give their children a leg up so after a couple iterations, it's no longer a meritocracy but an oligarchy.)
Now, on a more practical point, if I keep this behavior up, there is a lot of history of those nanny's gutting me like a stuck pig and taking all my stuff- or crushing my head with a rock- or kidnapping and murdering my children. Plus, at a fundamental level it bothers me to step over all those starving people and to see reports about them on the news so unless I'm a sociopath, I'm going to naturally support some kind of charity for them. Unless I can just manage to remap them as "losers" and "layabouts" even tho the real issue has nothing to do with their work ethic. They are human beings just the same as I am.
Labor costs typically top out at about 40% tho in many industries it's below 20%.
So the fins wouldn't be "free". They wouldn't even be half the current price.
They would be less expensive.
I wish other people could see that.
Especially with the yet to come 50% increase in population from the current ~7B to ~11B.
People don't seem to recall how violent desperate people can become.
The riots could be spectacular.
My..god. You mean even AFTER they destroy Bieber, there will still be years to go and thousands of Bieber look alikes to destroy?
So true! So insightful.
Between the internet and a couple video games, I can drop 10 hours a day of entertainment time without blinking an eye.
Have to focus to get to the gym and play boardgames/roleplaying games with my friends.
4k + inexpensive OLED could be awesome.
Imagine the walls and ceiling of your house being completely configurable. No need for discrete lighting.
Real time strategy games and MMORGS projected in your entire field of vision and reacting to your body movements and voice.
Appropriate sized display screens for content. The entire wall for a nature documentary, an 80" 'screen' for an action movie, a 43" 'screen' for an ordinary cooking show or sitcom.
I'm interested in the 4k as computer monitors too.
But for now... don't have 8,000 (on sale!) to drop.
Beta max was okay with movies. It failed on the 8 hour Mini Series. (truly a random event- we don't have 8 hour mini series any more and we didn't have them just a few years before video recording machines).
L-830 300 min (5 h)
For movies you could use L500 or L750 or lower the quality and use an L370 (and at lower quality, it was still very good compared to VHS.
And you are correct, VHS was cheaper per machine (due to the larger market providing economies of scale).
.
The parent post I was responding to said:
If your factory has 1000 workers each doing 40 hours a week, and automation makes 250 of those human jobs unnecessary,
As for the second part- not really. The reasons we allow corporations and companies to exist is that they are good for a majority of citizens.
The day corporations and companies start to only benefit 49% of the population at the expense of 51% of the population, they are no longer the right thing to do.
If firing 250 workers saves the corporation but either results in the death of those 250 workers or increases the cost to the rest of society dramatically then you also have a problem.
Yes-- needlessly keeping people on the job lowers profits- but does provide some benefits to the corporation too. In many cases, a sizable percentage of those salary savings go to executives as bonuses (benefiting 2% of the population at the expense of 98%) or are frittered away on expensive wasteful products. In some cases the supposedly good layoffs do a lot of damage to the company- but the executive skates free with a couple million and moves on down the road.
At my last company- the lost business in the first year from our big new project dwarfed the multimillion dollar bonuses given to the executives.
And some of them are now executives at other businesses.
Look, synonyms are not just words that mean the same thing.
There is a value in communicating precisely.
By overusing decimate, you are destroying the ability to actually talk about killing or destroying a tenth and losing the historical context as well.
Why not use "washed out" or "washed away" or even simply "destroyed"?
I understand that words drift and people come up with novel ways of using them.
My original post was polite and not and attack- merely a comment. I guess it pushed one of your buttons. Sorry.
OTH, shutting up is not going to happen. :-)
Yea, I'm not crazy about it but I do clean the inside of my case of dust roughly once a year.
Whoa! No need to loose your cool man.
Because if one company lays off the 250 then they are more profitable.
This means they can undercut your prices by 10%... and every consumer (including you) is going to buy the cheaper product.
They also have easier access to capital since they are more profitable so every investor (including you...) buys their stock.
And then they buy out the competition and spread their practice.
I don't have a good solution-- just giving you some reasons.
It can't be done by companies. It has to come from society- and the government.
We could fix unemployment tomorrow if we said you must pay double time for any hours over 40 per week and there are no exceptions except for people who manage groups of other people in a recognizable hierarchical structure. (i.e. no management loops).
IT people are being worked 60 hours (or more). So right there, every 2 jobs becomes 3 .
Doesn't help people directly in fields where the work week is 40 hours or less. But it should help them generally.
Save as if you will not be allowed to work after you reach 50. Because that's what's happened to many of the people I know in the compute field.
Then there's the whole outsourcing and offshoring thing... but serious age discrimination is rampant in the IT field and the supreme court generally gutted age discrimination protection in 2009.
Why do you think job sites want to know your high school graduation DATE?
1) is a function of good design. A modular design and a teeny bit of self diagnostics combined with a driverless repair vehicle will be able to address this. (and is already being used in some sectors).
2) is already being done now.
3) is a completely different issue.
3a) having tools which automate large parts of the design process really serve in the way that industrialization did in the past. They make a required human designer more productive. Problem is the world wide requirement for robot designers is probably in the 100's.
3b) having a truly intelligent tool means we have AI which means we have genius level artificial beings running around. That's probably a hundred years away. We don't want true AI because of the ethical (slavery) and the risk (revolution or failure of friendliness).
Yup and the ratio will be 1 new job to 100 jobs replaced by robots... then 1 new job to 1000 jobs replaced by robots.
Robot designers will require a certain degree of creativity but robot repair (especially of modular design) is highly automatizable.
As for building then. I think you need to reconsider that. Apple's new factory to build iPhones is going to have almost no human employs and Foxxcon intends to replace a million humans with robots. They are currently about 10% along the way.
People think you need AI.
But think about receptionists and customer service.
At many places I call there isn't even a human option any more.
Simple jobs are going away faster than we can create them.
Over half the population is only suited for simple jobs.
Worse than that- repetitive analytical jobs are also being automated now. So you've got another slice of people who were actually smarter than average but not all that creative out of work.
How do you operate society when 60% of the population is unemployable?
Well, I guess we just drive around with a big copper net over our car then.
Not everywhere has complete coverage like london or new york yet but your point is valid.
On the flip side, I *very* much doubt that every sensor has been replaced yet. I mean, come on- we have bridges falling down from rot but we are going to install new sensors before they are needed?
But eventually it will be true in the big population areas. Still doubt it outside of them.
Decimated would probably be more appropriate if about 10% of the road was gone.
I guess decimated is going to go the way of irregardless and loose.
Boulder is a major disaster recovery site for multiple american corporations because it's supposed to be so safe.
If we have something go bad in Lexington now, then something impressive could happen.
You could actually use this the other way.
Remove the tag before you go do something naughty but keep it in your car other times.
You may want to look into a power conditioner.
My laptop drive is 7 years old (runs XP).
My desktop drive is close to 5 years old.
I use them a lot.
They were on for about 3 years solid tho I've been putting them to sleep the last year.
Your failure rate seems suspiciously high.
I also have several USB drives of similar ages.
The only drives I've ever lost were 3 flash drives. Two of them mini drives which got very hot during use. And an old 88 mb drive back in the 90's. (cost me $88!)
I still back up frequently.
Hi Bmxeroh:
It's real and here is just one of many links you can find on it when you google it.
It is starting to be addressed (this is from May of 2012) but it's not fixed yet. It was still happening earlier this year.
http://www.securitiestechnologymonitor.com/blogs/uptick-automated-front-running-exception-30852-1.html?sifma=tech
Quote:
One involves the original large block electronic trading outlet, Institutional Networks Corporation aka Instinet, and what happened when it opened up its order flow to automated traders.
"The institutional clients complained immediately. If an institutional client places a bid to buy 5,000 shares at 24 1/8, the automated trading firms instantly placed a bid for a few hundred shares at 1/64 higher. They did this with every stock. If the institutional clients canceled their bids, the automated traders canceled their higher bids as well."
That is found on Location 404 of 5286 on the Kindle edition of âoeBroken Markets,â(TM)â(TM)by Sal Arnuk and Joe Saluzzi. They are partners, co-founders and co-heads of equity trading of Themis Trading LLC, an agency broker that trades for institutional money managers and hedge funds.
(deletia)
Front running is the illegal practice of a stock broker executing orders on a security for its own account while taking advantage of advance knowledge of pending orders from its customers.
Interestingly enough, the Securities and Exchange Commission on May 30 filed a notice that the broker overseer, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, wanted to amend its front-running rulebook, to cover front-running of block transactions.
Well yes, but what are your stretch goals going to be?
A worker's paradise?
A chicken in every pot?
Actually they can.
What they are doing would be called illegal front running if it were being done by humans at human speed.
By placing themselves next to the market, they see your incoming stock- buy the stock cheaper- and then sell it to you at a markup (very tiny but still, your "market price order" ends up being filled at a higher price and you lost money). I'm surprised you are unaware of it, the practice has been widely reported.
As I said, it's ILLEGAL when humans do this.
Some of the ways they manipulate the markets are also illegal to close to illegal when done by human beings. I also support an order cancellation fee of 1 penny per cancelled order.
I disagree with cancelling trades for algos when they screw up. If they buy a stock for too high or sell a stock for too low, they should have to eat it.
I don't think the algos have much effect on investors and traders who trade for periods over 4 weeks. The cycles they create are very similar to humans. I'm retired and I made more than I spent this month.
The biggest challenge for me is when the government changes the ground rules (like when they changed the accounting rules in march 2009 so banks could hold nonperforming loans on their books at full face value). Still- now I sort of expect the government to mess with the market.
Expecting a drop to as far as dow 8000 in 2 years- but first three to six more months upward and sideways. Going to be the investment opportunity of a lifetime.