Had Sony released the PS3 when they initially announced they'd release it, and had sales been as high as Sony had been projecting, then the war probably would already be over. However, that didn't happen, and HD DVD has managed to keep in the game, even though millions of PS3s have already been released. Six million PS3s by the end of March 2007 might have been enough to win the war, but 3 million clearly is not. If indeed Fuh Yuan and Wal-Mart are able to achieve the $199 price point with HD DVD this fall, then it may even give HD DVD the advantage, even despite the PS3 onslaught.
The reason for this is that PS3 owners simply don't buy as many discs as standalone owners. Estimates are that it takes roughly 4-5 PS3s to equal one standalone in terms of disc sales. This is an extremely important point and one that is not lost on either the Blu-ray and HD DVD combatants. That's why Toshiba went after the low cost Chinese manufacturers in the first place. Of course, Blu-ray companies will drop prices to compete, but the question is whether or not they will be able to do quick enough and low enough.
I originally posted a comment here but it gets lost in the shuffle due to the score thresholds. I have finally found my account details, so I've logged in.
I don't know who Hans is, but I did submit other parts of what was posted in the slashdot article. To repeat:
---
I was one of the people who sent in the news, and Slashdot posted my blurb:
"The first batches of these blue-laser HD DVD players are to land sometime in 2007, with complete fulfillment of the order [from Fuh Yuan] in 2008. The deal could be worth up to $300 million US, which translates to $150 per player. If so, by the time Christmas 2007 rolls around, Wal-Mart could be selling these for less than $200 retail, although some speculate that the initial manufacturer suggested retail pricing might be in the ballpark of $299. Currently the cheapest high-definition player is a Toshiba HD DVD with an MSRP of $399."
I also did send in the 2005 New York Times link, but did not attempt to imply it was recent. It was just an article to outline Toshiba's strategy of aligning itself with cheaper Chinese manufacturers. I also sent the links to the original Chinese articles (from a few days ago) about Wal-Mart's deal but I guess Slashdot didn't post them because they were in Chinese. No matter though, since the AVS thread linked here also includes them. I made no mention of Blu-ray player pricing either, except to say their MSRPs were more than Toshiba's MSRP of $399. Either somebody else's Slashdot submission said $1000, or else Slashdot simply got that number from the 2005 NYT article.
And no, this is not about Blu-ray. It's about blue-laser HD DVD, plain and simple. Several Chinese speakers have already verified this.
---
P.S. In case some don't believe that it's HD DVD. One of the Chinese articles specifically states that one advantage of blue light HD DVD is that its discs can be manufactured on existing DVD lines (after some upgrades). It should be noted that is only a feature of HD DVD. Blu-ray discs require separate stamping equipment.
These are nice updates all around. I just bought the new iBook 12".
Not only does it get 512 MB soldered onto the mobo (with one free RAM slot), it also gets that motion sensor for the HD, trackpad scrolling, and most importantly a fully Core Image compliant GPU, the Radeon 9550.
Furthermore, since I'm an education customer, I get a free iPod mini. (They rebate the cost of an iPod mini if you buy a Mac at the same time, but you can buy either the iPod or the iPod mini. Note however, the Mac has to be on the same bill, and neither the Mac mini nor the eMac qualify for this killer deal. Luckily the iBook fully qualifies though.:))
This should last me quite nicely until the Intel 'Books come out. I'm hoping for either a widescreen 13" dual-core Pentium M Yonah PowerBook, or a 4:3 12" single-core Celeron M Yonah iBook, in the first half of 2006. Actually, the current G4 iBooks are so nice, I may just wait until version B of the Intel Macs come out. By that time the x86 binaries will be more common (and more mature), and Apple will have had time to work some of the hardware transition kinks out too.
IBM's "typical" power ratings can in no way be directly compared against Intel's TDP. Intel's TDP represents an effective power maximum in real-life usage.
IBM's "typical" represents moderate usage. Maximum real-life usage is MUCH hotter than IBM's "typical". Indeed, my guesstimate is that max can reach up to around 1.8X that of "typical" (extrapolating on what seems to be the case for its desktop chips).
What this means is that IBM's 1.6 GHz 970FX is likely hotter than Intel's 2.0 GHz Pentium M Dothan. Even if the power dissipation were close, clock-for-clock Pentium M is overall faster than a 1.6 GHz 970FX.
IOW, no matter how you slice it, Pentium M Dothan has better performance/Watt overall than the low power 970FX.
Furthermore, a 1.6 GHz G5 offers no integer or Altivec performance advantage in most situations over a G4 7447A 1.67 GHz. (IBM's forte is FP.) Unfortunately for IBM, the G4 1.67 is already in PowerBooks, with the G4 7448 on the way. The G4 7448 has 1 MB of L2 cache (twice the G5 970FX's and twice the G4 7447A's), and will be produced with a 90 nm process, so I wouldn't be surprised if it debuted at 1.8 GHz, with decent (laptoppable) power specs.
A 1.8 GHz chip would be required just to make an update seem worthwhile over current PowerBooks. While I think IBM could release a laptoppable 1.8 GHz G5 at slightly above 30 Watts max, it's not clear if Apple would ever release this, since it might just be simpler to release a 1.8 GHz G4 PowerBook instead. The G4 7448 is basically a drop-in replacement for the 7447A in current PowerBooks. Why release a whole new G5 design if they can just release the G4 for one more iteration using the same PowerBook design, and then release a whole new dual-core Pentium M Yonah PowerBook in 2006?
I get half the frame rate (12 fps) on my 1 GHz PowerBook Titanium (133 MHz bus). It's pretty smooth for 12 fps. Interestingly, my 1.7 GHz Cube (100 MHz bus) is more jerky, despite the 700 MHz clock speed advantage.
Reports are that a 1.6 GHz G5 iMac has no problem with 720p24, and plays back 1080p24 at about 15 fps. A dual 1.8 GHz G5 is needed for 1080p24. (Apple recommends a 1.8 GHz G5 and a dual 2.0 GHz G5 respectively.)
To my surprise, one report also has it that a dual 1 GHz G4 will also play back 720p24 at the full 24 fps. A single 1.67 GHz G4 PowerBook is close to being able to play back 720p24 @ 24 fps too.
Additional HD H.264 fps reports are listed in this table
I'd be very surprised if such a dual-core chip got SMT too.
People have been talking about shared L2 cache, SMT, integrated memory controller, POWER5 derivation, etc., but I see the 970MP as really "just" a dual-core 970FX (which is derived from POWER4) with a few tweaks and extra L2 cache. Indeed, that's what the originalrumours suggested last year too, and those rumours were quite specific. (eg. Die size 11.629 mm x 13.225 mm.)
So, each "CPU" the OS will see for the time being will likely be a true physical core.
Eug
IIRC, Freescale has stated that the e600 MPC8641D dual-core with IMC will not sample until the second half of 2005.
Indeed, we have not even seen products based off the G4 7448 yet, and that's supposed to precede the e600 MPC8641D. The 7448 should compensate partially for the bandwidth problem too, since it gets a 200 MHz and 1 MB L2. Most importantly though, it's a direct drop-in replacement for the current 7447A, and thus is a no-brainer upgrade.
Interestingly, references to the G4 7448 have already shown up in Apple's CHUD tools.
I had seen this way back and had commented here.
Although the specs are nice, I'm not sure if it was just his desired future quad Mac or if it's a real product design.
Slashdot Mirror
My local Blockbuster rents HD DVDs.
Furthermore, all HD DVD players (so far anyway) will upscale DVDs.
Had Sony released the PS3 when they initially announced they'd release it, and had sales been as high as Sony had been projecting, then the war probably would already be over. However, that didn't happen, and HD DVD has managed to keep in the game, even though millions of PS3s have already been released. Six million PS3s by the end of March 2007 might have been enough to win the war, but 3 million clearly is not. If indeed Fuh Yuan and Wal-Mart are able to achieve the $199 price point with HD DVD this fall, then it may even give HD DVD the advantage, even despite the PS3 onslaught.
The reason for this is that PS3 owners simply don't buy as many discs as standalone owners. Estimates are that it takes roughly 4-5 PS3s to equal one standalone in terms of disc sales. This is an extremely important point and one that is not lost on either the Blu-ray and HD DVD combatants. That's why Toshiba went after the low cost Chinese manufacturers in the first place. Of course, Blu-ray companies will drop prices to compete, but the question is whether or not they will be able to do quick enough and low enough.
Link:
I was told by someone in the know that the player will be on the shelf at $299 and frequently on sale for $199
I'm hoping to get a few thousand with my branding.
-Robert
When I submitted the blurb, I never said Blu-ray players were $1000 in 2007. Perhaps Slashdot got it from the 2005 NYT article, I'm not sure.
I originally posted a comment here but it gets lost in the shuffle due to the score thresholds. I have finally found my account details, so I've logged in.
I don't know who Hans is, but I did submit other parts of what was posted in the slashdot article. To repeat:
---
I was one of the people who sent in the news, and Slashdot posted my blurb:
"The first batches of these blue-laser HD DVD players are to land sometime in 2007, with complete fulfillment of the order [from Fuh Yuan] in 2008. The deal could be worth up to $300 million US, which translates to $150 per player. If so, by the time Christmas 2007 rolls around, Wal-Mart could be selling these for less than $200 retail, although some speculate that the initial manufacturer suggested retail pricing might be in the ballpark of $299. Currently the cheapest high-definition player is a Toshiba HD DVD with an MSRP of $399."
I also did send in the 2005 New York Times link, but did not attempt to imply it was recent. It was just an article to outline Toshiba's strategy of aligning itself with cheaper Chinese manufacturers. I also sent the links to the original Chinese articles (from a few days ago) about Wal-Mart's deal but I guess Slashdot didn't post them because they were in Chinese. No matter though, since the AVS thread linked here also includes them. I made no mention of Blu-ray player pricing either, except to say their MSRPs were more than Toshiba's MSRP of $399. Either somebody else's Slashdot submission said $1000, or else Slashdot simply got that number from the 2005 NYT article.
And no, this is not about Blu-ray. It's about blue-laser HD DVD, plain and simple. Several Chinese speakers have already verified this.
---
P.S. In case some don't believe that it's HD DVD. One of the Chinese articles specifically states that one advantage of blue light HD DVD is that its discs can be manufactured on existing DVD lines (after some upgrades). It should be noted that is only a feature of HD DVD. Blu-ray discs require separate stamping equipment.
These are nice updates all around. I just bought the new iBook 12".
.
:))
Not only does it get 512 MB soldered onto the mobo (with one free RAM slot), it also gets that motion sensor for the HD, trackpad scrolling, and most importantly a fully Core Image compliant GPU, the Radeon 9550
Furthermore, since I'm an education customer, I get a free iPod mini. (They rebate the cost of an iPod mini if you buy a Mac at the same time, but you can buy either the iPod or the iPod mini. Note however, the Mac has to be on the same bill, and neither the Mac mini nor the eMac qualify for this killer deal. Luckily the iBook fully qualifies though.
This should last me quite nicely until the Intel 'Books come out. I'm hoping for either a widescreen 13" dual-core Pentium M Yonah PowerBook, or a 4:3 12" single-core Celeron M Yonah iBook, in the first half of 2006. Actually, the current G4 iBooks are so nice, I may just wait until version B of the Intel Macs come out. By that time the x86 binaries will be more common (and more mature), and Apple will have had time to work some of the hardware transition kinks out too.
IBM's "typical" power ratings can in no way be directly compared against Intel's TDP. Intel's TDP represents an effective power maximum in real-life usage.
IBM's "typical" represents moderate usage. Maximum real-life usage is MUCH hotter than IBM's "typical". Indeed, my guesstimate is that max can reach up to around 1.8X that of "typical" (extrapolating on what seems to be the case for its desktop chips).
What this means is that IBM's 1.6 GHz 970FX is likely hotter than Intel's 2.0 GHz Pentium M Dothan. Even if the power dissipation were close, clock-for-clock Pentium M is overall faster than a 1.6 GHz 970FX.
IOW, no matter how you slice it, Pentium M Dothan has better performance/Watt overall than the low power 970FX.
Furthermore, a 1.6 GHz G5 offers no integer or Altivec performance advantage in most situations over a G4 7447A 1.67 GHz. (IBM's forte is FP.) Unfortunately for IBM, the G4 1.67 is already in PowerBooks, with the G4 7448 on the way. The G4 7448 has 1 MB of L2 cache (twice the G5 970FX's and twice the G4 7447A's), and will be produced with a 90 nm process, so I wouldn't be surprised if it debuted at 1.8 GHz, with decent (laptoppable) power specs.
A 1.8 GHz chip would be required just to make an update seem worthwhile over current PowerBooks. While I think IBM could release a laptoppable 1.8 GHz G5 at slightly above 30 Watts max, it's not clear if Apple would ever release this, since it might just be simpler to release a 1.8 GHz G4 PowerBook instead. The G4 7448 is basically a drop-in replacement for the 7447A in current PowerBooks. Why release a whole new G5 design if they can just release the G4 for one more iteration using the same PowerBook design, and then release a whole new dual-core Pentium M Yonah PowerBook in 2006?
I get half the frame rate (12 fps) on my 1 GHz PowerBook Titanium (133 MHz bus). It's pretty smooth for 12 fps. Interestingly, my 1.7 GHz Cube (100 MHz bus) is more jerky, despite the 700 MHz clock speed advantage.
Reports are that a 1.6 GHz G5 iMac has no problem with 720p24, and plays back 1080p24 at about 15 fps. A dual 1.8 GHz G5 is needed for 1080p24. (Apple recommends a 1.8 GHz G5 and a dual 2.0 GHz G5 respectively.)
To my surprise, one report also has it that a dual 1 GHz G4 will also play back 720p24 at the full 24 fps. A single 1.67 GHz G4 PowerBook is close to being able to play back 720p24 @ 24 fps too.
Additional HD H.264 fps reports are listed in this table
"If it got gold a week ago, why I Apple sitll asking me about bug reports I submitted..."
As a developer, you of course realize they're already working on 10.4.1. Indeed, some claim they're already at build 8A432. (8A428 is gold master.)
I'm serious. You really should install this software (assuming you're on OS X). It's actually quite amusing.
;)
As for the Easter Eggs, Hector is actually quite cute. The rest of them, well...
I'd be very surprised if such a dual-core chip got SMT too. People have been talking about shared L2 cache, SMT, integrated memory controller, POWER5 derivation, etc., but I see the 970MP as really "just" a dual-core 970FX (which is derived from POWER4) with a few tweaks and extra L2 cache. Indeed, that's what the original rumours suggested last year too, and those rumours were quite specific. (eg. Die size 11.629 mm x 13.225 mm.) So, each "CPU" the OS will see for the time being will likely be a true physical core. Eug
Why rumors? For the same reason you post at Slashdot. Cuz it's a great way to kill time.
IIRC, Freescale has stated that the e600 MPC8641D dual-core with IMC will not sample until the second half of 2005. Indeed, we have not even seen products based off the G4 7448 yet, and that's supposed to precede the e600 MPC8641D. The 7448 should compensate partially for the bandwidth problem too, since it gets a 200 MHz and 1 MB L2. Most importantly though, it's a direct drop-in replacement for the current 7447A, and thus is a no-brainer upgrade. Interestingly, references to the G4 7448 have already shown up in Apple's CHUD tools.
I had seen this way back and had commented here. Although the specs are nice, I'm not sure if it was just his desired future quad Mac or if it's a real product design.