Marina boat racks exist, and there are ways to load your boat onto a rack. My point is simply that there are easy enough ways to address the problem where people don't want to tow their boat with their own car or taxi. A self-driving boat transporter isn't that much of a stretch.
I agree with your statements, but the premise is really that NEW ICE cars will not be produced/sold in x years. There will be a second hand market in the US and Europe for another few years for sure, and then it will spread to developing countries-- but will it make sense to produce new (ICE) cars if there is a glut of used cars?
Most poor people that I know who buy cars do it on stupid loan terms... like 7 years, 10% APR for a used car.
If you say $300 car payment, $100/month for insurance, and driving 500 miles/month with a budget of $100/month for repairs, and $0.05/mile in gas, you come to a cost per mile of $1.05... about what it currently costs for an Uber. Pretty soon, it makes sense to get a ride rather than drive yourself.
If you believe the author's statements of 1 million-mile life and assume a car cost of $100k, the capital cost per mile is $0.10. Add a nickle for electricity and triple it to cover maintenance and profit, and it could be hard to compete.
The only real variables are how long it would take for autonomous electric cars to be produced in adequate quantities to satisfy all needs. I think at 10x utilization factor, you are looking closer to 15 years from now best-case.
For long-distance driving, you have the "peleton" approach, where you could easily have a a truck providing power to re-charge a series vehicle traveling together on the highway. Truck charges for x hours and discharges for ~30 minutes along a designated corridor. Not an especially difficult problem if all the cars are EVs, even if it is just a range extender. Very few people drive more than 600 miles in a day non-stop.
Well, using your example, why the hell would your self-driving car launch the boat and not your (or the marina's) self-driving boat trailer? Launching a boat is a really stupid process the way it is done today, taking unnecessary time without plenty of extra hands.
Self-driving dump trucks, excavators, graders, loaders, and harvesters exist for off-road use today.
Caterpillar did a study about 10 years ago on hybrid electric vs hybrid hydraulic for excavators IIRC, and at that point came to the conclusion that electric was not viable (yet). But, they did look into it and come to a conclusion "back then." The outcome will likely change in the future, although I doubt 2,500 HP off-road equipment will transition to pure electric for a while.
At roughly 500 HP, semi trailers are not a big hurdle to go electric; it really just comes down to the economics when it comes to long-range applications.
So, for new cars being sold... I would say there is a chance if the self-driving gains sufficient traction. Used and existing cars would logically have an economic life of at least 8 years beyond when level-5 automation becomes viable, as it will take several years for new cars to be built to replace them.
You will likely get to a point where oil prices are very low, but gas/diesel prices gain substantial margin in order for stations to remain viable; in economic terms it makes sense that in 15 years there could be as few gas/diesel stations as there are natural gas filling stations today. But, it isn't really about EVs as much as it is about the level of self-driving autonomy.
Politics aside, you just don't seem to get it. Personally, I dumped Wells Fargo in 2002 for a credit union after they screwed me over on fees while I was out of the country and unable to do anything about it. Now I also use Chase, as my business line of credit makes me a private banking customer and they treat us quite well. I like the features they offer like app-based deposit of checks. I don't pay any fees to them, and our Line of Credit is a half a point above LIBOR.
Retail depository banking is not a huge profit center for the banks. What they make money on is credit cards (issuing and merchant fees both), and loans. The big banks are really about their brokerage and investment arms. They have seen margins contract as competitors eat up some of their more profitable business, but they do fine.
That is the best conclusion I can come up with as well. I fail to understand why internet service (at least the last mile layer 1 stuff) is not a universal public utility!!
If people really don't want that, well, net neutrality is the next best thing.
The real problem for Los Angeles traffic is that places like Temecula and Palm Springs are starting to become "bedroom communities" for people working in Irvine, El Segundo, and Santa Monica. Transit only makes the problem worse.
Not true; small scale mixed use infill development can make a big local impact, and do it long enough and you start to have regional impact. With dense walkable communities mass transit becomes viable, even as an afterthought.
Very good points. I just gave a lecture twice this week with very different outcomes. The first time, 80 or so people were fully engaged on a topic we all thought was important. The second time around with a different (and smaller) group it was all glazed over eyes. If I taught full time (or even just a lecture per month) I might be better at adapting, but I don't and I'm not.
I am still a huge fan of Socratic learning, but it really doesn't seem to work for a typical audience.
Helps if you understand the physics; rolling inertial is dramatically impacted by increases in weight at the extreme edge of the radius of rotation. The old solution was to "double tube" your tires to protect yourself, add in the puncture resistant goop for high risk locations. Nowadays I use Kevlar tires on my road bike plus puncture resistant tubes, and it does pretty good... but much more expensive.
Democracy in action, Fuck Yeah!! About time the corporations with a vested interest in the outcome can properly voice their concerns to squeeze out the humans.
Aside from the obvious pedestrian issues (which can be addressed by the Buddhist street crossing technique: just walk at a constant speed through the intersection), this is a pretty obvious solution.
Bought one for my wife for swimming as well. Both of us (had mine a few months longer) are quite happy with them, especially the GPS independence from the phone, and being waterproof.
Standing seam roofs offer a number of benefits though. To GGP's point, even if the "robot" just does final positioning of the adjacent panel and crimps the seams, it reduces the human workload. Such a robot might be 30lbs. Trim cutting could be done on the ground based on 3D scanning, and bulk positioning either by humans or an automated small crane.
Asphalt shingles (or even wood) wouldn't be much harder to automate.
Buggy whip manufacturer and mechanic are both primarily manual dexterity tasks, with an incremental intellectual knowledge. Training a hotel maid with limited language skills to do another task that will not be automated is a challenge. The Chef will likely become a personal chef or something related, at least at first... but there are a whole class of positions that will simply disappear. Call me introverted, but I will be happy to not have to wait in line to talk to anyone in order to "check in" to a hotel or rent/return a car.
I am an engineer, and hire primarily engineers. We try to get the top ~30% of our field, although some people turn out to perform closer to the 30th percentile. We try to keep them, if we can. They generally make 20% less that the 70th-90th percentile folks, which provides at least a little offset. So, what happens when the bottom 70% simply cannot find a job? (We get closer to that every day with increases in software, real-estate, benefits, and healthcare costs becoming a meaningful portion of total burdened costs.)
Um, are you sure his home was three quarters of a Billion dollars for 2,000 square feet?
I am in between Santa Monica and Huntington Beach, and am yet to see a home sell for $3,000/square foot... although some ass thinks his 2,700 square feet of dirt are worth over $10 million...
Again, everything I am reading and my own experience suggest otherwise: "Running the same test in Bridge mode thru an RT-AC68U, all of the cached results are 100% Reliable, so, no packet loss, which is a definite improvement. Only one uncached result had a low score, at 97.9 %, so thats not too bad." [http://www.dslreports.com/forum/r31135629-Modem-Router-Rogers-CODA-4582-modem-now-available-Puma-7-Chipset]
What tables are used, or packet processing is done in bridge mode?
Those things are all true, but with ebooks, the opportunity should be in making it up in volume. At a better price point, you would expect a higher volume of sales. With almost no incremental cost per unit sold, cutting the price in half is justifiable.
The publishers don't because they want to maintain control of the market and offset risks with fixed costs being covered by the hardcover release.
So the Puma is the dog, and even if you are just using the modem in bridge mode, the chipset is still the DOCIS modem... which might not be impacted directly by this vulnerability, but give it time?
Everything I am reading suggests it is the router functionality that has issues: "The problem appears to be that the x86 CPU in the modem is taking on too much work while processing network packet"
I have a Puma6 device (Linksys CM6190) in bridge mode with a Ubiquity router/firewall and the test site doesn't trigger any issues with increasing latency. I think most ISPs use a management VLAN on the modem as well, but it doesn't seem like that would trigger issues on the customer side.
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Marina boat racks exist, and there are ways to load your boat onto a rack. My point is simply that there are easy enough ways to address the problem where people don't want to tow their boat with their own car or taxi. A self-driving boat transporter isn't that much of a stretch.
I agree with your statements, but the premise is really that NEW ICE cars will not be produced/sold in x years. There will be a second hand market in the US and Europe for another few years for sure, and then it will spread to developing countries-- but will it make sense to produce new (ICE) cars if there is a glut of used cars?
Most poor people that I know who buy cars do it on stupid loan terms... like 7 years, 10% APR for a used car.
/mile in gas, you come to a cost per mile of $1.05... about what it currently costs for an Uber. Pretty soon, it makes sense to get a ride rather than drive yourself.
If you say $300 car payment, $100/month for insurance, and driving 500 miles/month with a budget of $100/month for repairs, and $0.05
If you believe the author's statements of 1 million-mile life and assume a car cost of $100k, the capital cost per mile is $0.10. Add a nickle for electricity and triple it to cover maintenance and profit, and it could be hard to compete.
The only real variables are how long it would take for autonomous electric cars to be produced in adequate quantities to satisfy all needs. I think at 10x utilization factor, you are looking closer to 15 years from now best-case.
Do you think we will see level-5 self-driving gasoline cars? The automation is what will drive the trend, not specifically the electric portion.
For long-distance driving, you have the "peleton" approach, where you could easily have a a truck providing power to re-charge a series vehicle traveling together on the highway. Truck charges for x hours and discharges for ~30 minutes along a designated corridor. Not an especially difficult problem if all the cars are EVs, even if it is just a range extender. Very few people drive more than 600 miles in a day non-stop.
Well, using your example, why the hell would your self-driving car launch the boat and not your (or the marina's) self-driving boat trailer? Launching a boat is a really stupid process the way it is done today, taking unnecessary time without plenty of extra hands.
Self-driving dump trucks, excavators, graders, loaders, and harvesters exist for off-road use today.
Caterpillar did a study about 10 years ago on hybrid electric vs hybrid hydraulic for excavators IIRC, and at that point came to the conclusion that electric was not viable (yet). But, they did look into it and come to a conclusion "back then." The outcome will likely change in the future, although I doubt 2,500 HP off-road equipment will transition to pure electric for a while.
At roughly 500 HP, semi trailers are not a big hurdle to go electric; it really just comes down to the economics when it comes to long-range applications.
So, for new cars being sold... I would say there is a chance if the self-driving gains sufficient traction. Used and existing cars would logically have an economic life of at least 8 years beyond when level-5 automation becomes viable, as it will take several years for new cars to be built to replace them.
You will likely get to a point where oil prices are very low, but gas/diesel prices gain substantial margin in order for stations to remain viable; in economic terms it makes sense that in 15 years there could be as few gas/diesel stations as there are natural gas filling stations today. But, it isn't really about EVs as much as it is about the level of self-driving autonomy.
Politics aside, you just don't seem to get it. Personally, I dumped Wells Fargo in 2002 for a credit union after they screwed me over on fees while I was out of the country and unable to do anything about it. Now I also use Chase, as my business line of credit makes me a private banking customer and they treat us quite well. I like the features they offer like app-based deposit of checks. I don't pay any fees to them, and our Line of Credit is a half a point above LIBOR.
Retail depository banking is not a huge profit center for the banks. What they make money on is credit cards (issuing and merchant fees both), and loans. The big banks are really about their brokerage and investment arms. They have seen margins contract as competitors eat up some of their more profitable business, but they do fine.
That is the best conclusion I can come up with as well. I fail to understand why internet service (at least the last mile layer 1 stuff) is not a universal public utility!!
If people really don't want that, well, net neutrality is the next best thing.
The real problem for Los Angeles traffic is that places like Temecula and Palm Springs are starting to become "bedroom communities" for people working in Irvine, El Segundo, and Santa Monica. Transit only makes the problem worse.
Not true; small scale mixed use infill development can make a big local impact, and do it long enough and you start to have regional impact. With dense walkable communities mass transit becomes viable, even as an afterthought.
Very good points. I just gave a lecture twice this week with very different outcomes. The first time, 80 or so people were fully engaged on a topic we all thought was important. The second time around with a different (and smaller) group it was all glazed over eyes. If I taught full time (or even just a lecture per month) I might be better at adapting, but I don't and I'm not.
I am still a huge fan of Socratic learning, but it really doesn't seem to work for a typical audience.
You have obviously never been to Thailand or Cambodia...
Helps if you understand the physics; rolling inertial is dramatically impacted by increases in weight at the extreme edge of the radius of rotation. The old solution was to "double tube" your tires to protect yourself, add in the puncture resistant goop for high risk locations. Nowadays I use Kevlar tires on my road bike plus puncture resistant tubes, and it does pretty good... but much more expensive.
Democracy in action, Fuck Yeah!! About time the corporations with a vested interest in the outcome can properly voice their concerns to squeeze out the humans.
Aside from the obvious pedestrian issues (which can be addressed by the Buddhist street crossing technique: just walk at a constant speed through the intersection), this is a pretty obvious solution.
Bought one for my wife for swimming as well. Both of us (had mine a few months longer) are quite happy with them, especially the GPS independence from the phone, and being waterproof.
Arguably more important: what percentage of EU-27 citizens speak French vs English?
Standing seam roofs offer a number of benefits though. To GGP's point, even if the "robot" just does final positioning of the adjacent panel and crimps the seams, it reduces the human workload. Such a robot might be 30lbs. Trim cutting could be done on the ground based on 3D scanning, and bulk positioning either by humans or an automated small crane.
Asphalt shingles (or even wood) wouldn't be much harder to automate.
Buggy whip manufacturer and mechanic are both primarily manual dexterity tasks, with an incremental intellectual knowledge. Training a hotel maid with limited language skills to do another task that will not be automated is a challenge. The Chef will likely become a personal chef or something related, at least at first... but there are a whole class of positions that will simply disappear. Call me introverted, but I will be happy to not have to wait in line to talk to anyone in order to "check in" to a hotel or rent/return a car.
I am an engineer, and hire primarily engineers. We try to get the top ~30% of our field, although some people turn out to perform closer to the 30th percentile. We try to keep them, if we can. They generally make 20% less that the 70th-90th percentile folks, which provides at least a little offset. So, what happens when the bottom 70% simply cannot find a job? (We get closer to that every day with increases in software, real-estate, benefits, and healthcare costs becoming a meaningful portion of total burdened costs.)
Um, are you sure his home was three quarters of a Billion dollars for 2,000 square feet?
I am in between Santa Monica and Huntington Beach, and am yet to see a home sell for $3,000/square foot... although some ass thinks his 2,700 square feet of dirt are worth over $10 million...
Again, everything I am reading and my own experience suggest otherwise:
"Running the same test in Bridge mode thru an RT-AC68U, all of the cached results are 100% Reliable, so, no packet loss, which is a definite improvement. Only one uncached result had a low score, at 97.9 %, so thats not too bad." [http://www.dslreports.com/forum/r31135629-Modem-Router-Rogers-CODA-4582-modem-now-available-Puma-7-Chipset]
What tables are used, or packet processing is done in bridge mode?
Those things are all true, but with ebooks, the opportunity should be in making it up in volume. At a better price point, you would expect a higher volume of sales. With almost no incremental cost per unit sold, cutting the price in half is justifiable.
The publishers don't because they want to maintain control of the market and offset risks with fixed costs being covered by the hardcover release.
So the Puma is the dog, and even if you are just using the modem in bridge mode, the chipset is still the DOCIS modem... which might not be impacted directly by this vulnerability, but give it time?
Everything I am reading suggests it is the router functionality that has issues:
"The problem appears to be that the x86 CPU in the modem is taking on too much work while processing network packet"
I have a Puma6 device (Linksys CM6190) in bridge mode with a Ubiquity router/firewall and the test site doesn't trigger any issues with increasing latency. I think most ISPs use a management VLAN on the modem as well, but it doesn't seem like that would trigger issues on the customer side.