Right. But my point is that if spending is shown to increase globally (which it is), we can infer that the remaining volume of bitcoins that are hoarded is diminishing (volume = number of bitcoins multiplied by frequency of transactions).
Also, you need to realize that the ultimate goal of hoarders is to sell at some point in the future, in order to realize a profit. Therefore there is always going to be some amount of bitcoins available for purchase if the exchange rate continues to climb. See http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD_depth.html : the sell orders smoothly cover a price from $30 or so up to trillion of dollars. Therefore "lack of liquidity" is never going to be an issue - the exchange rate is just going to climb and entice some hoarders to sell.
On the contrary, all the economic indicators point to the fact that, globally, Bitcoin spending is increasing: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5296889 Perhaps people are uncertain about Bitcoin's future, or are plainly irrational, hence they still spend bitcoins despite knowing about deflation.
Marry her. She changes both her official last name, and her pen name. And bam! the guy has to re-buy new domains matching the new name, and has to re-do the smear campaign from scratch:) And preferably, before she changes her name, pre-emptively buy domains before the ex-husband does.
The Bitcoin difficulty has never been bumped up by ASICs, because ASICs have not yet been released. They should come out in December/January.
Mining is still profitable today. I am still making money with GPUs (a little), and with FPGAs (a lot). Even after the halving due tomorrow, my GPUs will still make money. It is all about electrical costs. If you pay less than $0.20/kWh, a HD 7970 can still make money. Worldwide average is $0.10/kWh.
ASICs are not expensive at all. The most power efficient ASIC vendor, Butterfly Labs, have ASICs starting at $149: http://www.butterflylabs.com/products/
I highly doubt the majority of the 40k coins circulate within MtGox without leaving it. Or else traders would erode their capital because MtGox charges hefty trading fees: https://mtgox.com/fee-schedule
This still means the 9M coins will trade in about 7-8 months. Or 3-4 months rather, since the MtGox volume has recently increased to 80k coins per day.
Did you read the part where I said 40k is SIX TIMES the number of coins introduced daily? This is not "irrelevant noise".
40k per day also means the entire market (9M coins) is traded every 7.5 months.
You are wrong. The "hoarding" argument has been beaten to death. Current evidence shows that people are NOT hoarding the coins: every day, 40 thousand coins change hands on the single largest exchange: http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD.html This is six times the number of coins created daily by the network (7 thousand).
In other words, people are not hoarding them, but are trading them very, very frequently.
And this is just measuring MtGox's volume. Other trades (merchant sales, other exchanges, etc) are likely doing even bigger volume...
I give up. I gave you links from multiple independent research groups who show something needs explaining but you keep ignoring them... Read again from Thermacore, the CERN, Piantelli, Focardi, the Italian ENEA (equivalent to the US Dept of Energy). All are linked from http://blog.zorinaq.com/?e=61
You have to read the research papers yourself and then make up your own mind.
Give me a break, "ecatnews" just happened to have the best quote from this NASA engineer. His quote remains nonetheless correct.
Come back with some quality studies published in reputable journals and reproduced by numerous credible scientists, and we'll talk.
You do realize it is impossible to reach this situation if everyone had your mindset... You have to have people "crazy enough" to remotely believe in the possibility of LENR to study it and eventually prove it or disprove it. Your behavior is exactly what has been holding back LENR research for 20 years. Instead of bluntly rejecting it, you should be open-minded and support the current research, even if you currently don't believe in it.
For the record the Focardi report was published in a peer-reviewed journal (Il Nuovo Cimento).
So, technically speaking, I agree with you, no one can unambiguously prove LENR today. I am just pointing out research and experiments that indicate there are datapoints that current theories cannot explain, and that we may be at the verge of finally proving LENR.
You really ought to read my blog post. It is not biased because it merely quotes and links to other trusted external resources (such as NASA) referencing similar successful experiments.
The single experiment I quoted (900 extra MJ) was run over 278 days. That corresponds to 37W of heat produced continuously, in addition to the heat produced by the input power which varied from 149.6W to 94.3W. All this info is in the PDF I linked to.
Even today, the NASA scientist interviewed in the video referenced by TFA re-stated that "production of excess energy has been demonstrated": http://ecatnews.com/?p=1868
It is time to stop saying "I won't believe in it until it has been reproduced". It HAS been demonstrated/reproduced. We can't explain the phenomenon. So it is time to pour research effort into LENR...
This covers 20 years of research of "anomalous heat" coming from nickel-hydrogen cells which is the basis of Rossi's technology. Did you that numerous prominent Italian scientists believe Rossi is onto something? Did you know that a former Greek ambassador to Italy and scientist became involved with Rossi to manufacture the E-Cat via an independent company (Defkalion)? And now this company claims to have reverse engineered Rossi's device, and is on a race to ship something before Rossi?
I have been following very closely the whole story around Rossi's E-Cat device for 3 months, and it is so much more complex and fascinating than what you all think...
You are wrong. The anomalous heat detected in some experiments is statistically significant. Just one example: in a 1998 experiment, Focardi had set up a cell that ran continuously for 278 days and produced an excess power of about 900 megajoule: http://www.lenr-canr.org/acrobat/FocardiSlargeexces.pdf
The problem is that this experiment, and many others, despite providing very interesting results, have been mostly ignored by the scientific community purely because of the stigma associated to Cold Fusion research. This is frustrating!
The submitter is also incorrect when saying that Rossi provided no details about how his reactors work. He explained that (a) he processes the nickel powder to create tubercles and enhance its contact surface with hydrogen, (b) he uses 2 nickel isotopes to enhance the reaction, (c) he splits molecular hydrogen (H2) into atomic hydrogen (H1), (d) he uses high pressure and temperature to initiates the reaction, etc.
I used to think that Rossi's E-Cat was a scam, but after researching deeply the subject, I am now convinced this guy might be onto something, see this post I wrote explaining many Cold Fusion experiments that seem to support Rossi and that have been ignored by the community at large: http://blog.zorinaq.com/?e=61
On "why does NetApp sell their PCIe NAND flash card $30k?", here is your answer, Chris Rima: http://blog.zorinaq.com/?e=37
In a 3 words: because NetApp can.
It's not the components or engineering behind the card that cost $30k. NetApp prices it so high because the card boosts the performance of their filers by about the same amount as a ~$50k shelf of SAS disks (click that link and go read NetApp's own marketing documentation). They have got to have price points that make sense to customers.
(I know a fraction of you will think "No way!". Well, arbitrary price markups on enterprise gear do exist. This NetApp Flash Cache is effectively priced $150/GB. How do you think that certain competitors can even sell _enterprise_ flash at well below $10/GB? We are not talking 25 or 50% less, but a whole order of magnitude less expensive!)
Thus, your best bet with bitcoins is to not spend it, but to hoard it, which means all you have are a bunch of people invest by mining and keeping, knowing they will go up in the future. And this is a problem - and why governments are deathly afraid of deflationary economic environments.
This argument does not work. In fact you can use it against either inflationary or deflationary economics:
Inflation entices sellers to sell later (but buyers to buy now).
Deflation entices buyers to buy later (but sellers to sell now).
In reality they have equivalent positive and negative effects.
1. Bitcoins are so hard to generate that 1 BTC is worth about 0.80 USD currently. http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/
2. Correct. More powerful hardware (GPUs) generate more Bitcoins. Serious miners have farms of Radeon HD 5970.
Yes because after doing it, you can resell the card for more than half its original price. Profits are even easier if you buy used video cards. But most of all, recouping "half the price" is my own excessively conservative estimate. Personally, I have recouped the cost of multiple Radeon HD 5970 already, and think it is still possible (I continue to invest in more hardware).
Slashdot Mirror
Datapoints show that you are wrong: despite deflation, it appears that bitcoins are not hoarded, or more precisely are hoarded less and less. See: http://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=3504687&threshold=-1&commentsort=0&mode=nested&cid=43042029
Right. But my point is that if spending is shown to increase globally (which it is), we can infer that the remaining volume of bitcoins that are hoarded is diminishing (volume = number of bitcoins multiplied by frequency of transactions). Also, you need to realize that the ultimate goal of hoarders is to sell at some point in the future, in order to realize a profit. Therefore there is always going to be some amount of bitcoins available for purchase if the exchange rate continues to climb. See http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD_depth.html : the sell orders smoothly cover a price from $30 or so up to trillion of dollars. Therefore "lack of liquidity" is never going to be an issue - the exchange rate is just going to climb and entice some hoarders to sell.
Huh? By definition hoarding and spending are exclusive. A bitcoin cannot be hoarded and spent at the same time!
On the contrary, all the economic indicators point to the fact that, globally, Bitcoin spending is increasing: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5296889 Perhaps people are uncertain about Bitcoin's future, or are plainly irrational, hence they still spend bitcoins despite knowing about deflation.
Marry her. She changes both her official last name, and her pen name. And bam! the guy has to re-buy new domains matching the new name, and has to re-do the smear campaign from scratch :) And preferably, before she changes her name, pre-emptively buy domains before the ex-husband does.
Multiple errors in your post.
The Bitcoin difficulty has never been bumped up by ASICs, because ASICs have not yet been released. They should come out in December/January.
Mining is still profitable today. I am still making money with GPUs (a little), and with FPGAs (a lot). Even after the halving due tomorrow, my GPUs will still make money. It is all about electrical costs. If you pay less than $0.20/kWh, a HD 7970 can still make money. Worldwide average is $0.10/kWh.
ASICs are not expensive at all. The most power efficient ASIC vendor, Butterfly Labs, have ASICs starting at $149: http://www.butterflylabs.com/products/
I highly doubt the majority of the 40k coins circulate within MtGox without leaving it. Or else traders would erode their capital because MtGox charges hefty trading fees: https://mtgox.com/fee-schedule
This still means the 9M coins will trade in about 7-8 months. Or 3-4 months rather, since the MtGox volume has recently increased to 80k coins per day.
It is because people *think* they can profit more by day trading the coins, as opposed to merely hoarding them.
Did you read the part where I said 40k is SIX TIMES the number of coins introduced daily? This is not "irrelevant noise". 40k per day also means the entire market (9M coins) is traded every 7.5 months.
You are wrong. The "hoarding" argument has been beaten to death. Current evidence shows that people are NOT hoarding the coins: every day, 40 thousand coins change hands on the single largest exchange: http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD.html This is six times the number of coins created daily by the network (7 thousand).
In other words, people are not hoarding them, but are trading them very, very frequently.
And this is just measuring MtGox's volume. Other trades (merchant sales, other exchanges, etc) are likely doing even bigger volume...
You mean like... cash?
It's more than one engineer for god's sake... You too need to read the research papers!
We are just starting to be able to understand how to reliably reproduce it. See the table starting on page 16, more than a dozen groups have reproduced it: http://newenergytimes.com/v2/news/2012/2012Celani-WSEC.pdf
Believe it or not, I am willing to bet $5k that Ni-H cold fusion is real! We can use longbets.org Contact me at this.guy.from.slashdot@gmail.com
I give up. I gave you links from multiple independent research groups who show something needs explaining but you keep ignoring them... Read again from Thermacore, the CERN, Piantelli, Focardi, the Italian ENEA (equivalent to the US Dept of Energy). All are linked from http://blog.zorinaq.com/?e=61 You have to read the research papers yourself and then make up your own mind.
Give me a break, "ecatnews" just happened to have the best quote from this NASA engineer. His quote remains nonetheless correct.
You do realize it is impossible to reach this situation if everyone had your mindset... You have to have people "crazy enough" to remotely believe in the possibility of LENR to study it and eventually prove it or disprove it. Your behavior is exactly what has been holding back LENR research for 20 years. Instead of bluntly rejecting it, you should be open-minded and support the current research, even if you currently don't believe in it.
For the record the Focardi report was published in a peer-reviewed journal (Il Nuovo Cimento).
Thermacore (DARPA contractor) reported anomalous heat in Ni-H cells: http://www.lenr-canr.org/acrobat/GernertNnascenthyd.pdf
Very recently at the WSEC 2012 conference, Celani also reported excess heat: http://www.22passi.it/downloads/WSEC2012%20Present.pdf
So, technically speaking, I agree with you, no one can unambiguously prove LENR today. I am just pointing out research and experiments that indicate there are datapoints that current theories cannot explain, and that we may be at the verge of finally proving LENR.
You really ought to read my blog post. It is not biased because it merely quotes and links to other trusted external resources (such as NASA) referencing similar successful experiments.
The single experiment I quoted (900 extra MJ) was run over 278 days. That corresponds to 37W of heat produced continuously, in addition to the heat produced by the input power which varied from 149.6W to 94.3W. All this info is in the PDF I linked to.
Even today, the NASA scientist interviewed in the video referenced by TFA re-stated that "production of excess energy has been demonstrated": http://ecatnews.com/?p=1868
It is time to stop saying "I won't believe in it until it has been reproduced". It HAS been demonstrated/reproduced. We can't explain the phenomenon. So it is time to pour research effort into LENR...
http://blog.zorinaq.com/?e=61
This covers 20 years of research of "anomalous heat" coming from nickel-hydrogen cells which is the basis of Rossi's technology. Did you that numerous prominent Italian scientists believe Rossi is onto something? Did you know that a former Greek ambassador to Italy and scientist became involved with Rossi to manufacture the E-Cat via an independent company (Defkalion)? And now this company claims to have reverse engineered Rossi's device, and is on a race to ship something before Rossi?
I have been following very closely the whole story around Rossi's E-Cat device for 3 months, and it is so much more complex and fascinating than what you all think...
You are wrong. The anomalous heat detected in some experiments is statistically significant. Just one example: in a 1998 experiment, Focardi had set up a cell that ran continuously for 278 days and produced an excess power of about 900 megajoule: http://www.lenr-canr.org/acrobat/FocardiSlargeexces.pdf
The problem is that this experiment, and many others, despite providing very interesting results, have been mostly ignored by the scientific community purely because of the stigma associated to Cold Fusion research. This is frustrating!
The submitter is also incorrect when saying that Rossi provided no details about how his reactors work. He explained that (a) he processes the nickel powder to create tubercles and enhance its contact surface with hydrogen, (b) he uses 2 nickel isotopes to enhance the reaction, (c) he splits molecular hydrogen (H2) into atomic hydrogen (H1), (d) he uses high pressure and temperature to initiates the reaction, etc.
I used to think that Rossi's E-Cat was a scam, but after researching deeply the subject, I am now convinced this guy might be onto something, see this post I wrote explaining many Cold Fusion experiments that seem to support Rossi and that have been ignored by the community at large: http://blog.zorinaq.com/?e=61
On "why does NetApp sell their PCIe NAND flash card $30k?", here is your answer, Chris Rima: http://blog.zorinaq.com/?e=37
In a 3 words: because NetApp can.
It's not the components or engineering behind the card that cost $30k. NetApp prices it so high because the card boosts the performance of their filers by about the same amount as a ~$50k shelf of SAS disks (click that link and go read NetApp's own marketing documentation). They have got to have price points that make sense to customers.
(I know a fraction of you will think "No way!". Well, arbitrary price markups on enterprise gear do exist. This NetApp Flash Cache is effectively priced $150/GB. How do you think that certain competitors can even sell _enterprise_ flash at well below $10/GB? We are not talking 25 or 50% less, but a whole order of magnitude less expensive!)
To send email from a personal DSL/cable IP address, you should configure your MTA to send through your internet service provider's MTA.
Why don't people know this? This takes care of the problem of "getting my IP address removed from blacklists".
This argument does not work. In fact you can use it against either inflationary or deflationary economics:
In reality they have equivalent positive and negative effects.
Yes. In fact, France is already the world's largest net exporter of electricity (67 billion kWh per year): http://www.indexmundi.com/map/?v=82
1. Bitcoins are so hard to generate that 1 BTC is worth about 0.80 USD currently. http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/
2. Correct. More powerful hardware (GPUs) generate more Bitcoins. Serious miners have farms of Radeon HD 5970.
Yes because after doing it, you can resell the card for more than half its original price. Profits are even easier if you buy used video cards. But most of all, recouping "half the price" is my own excessively conservative estimate. Personally, I have recouped the cost of multiple Radeon HD 5970 already, and think it is still possible (I continue to invest in more hardware).