Welllll the first paragraph is true, but if you click through your bloomberg link you'll see that there's something called the RBOB Gasoline. That is what Gasoline prices at the pump are based off of. Not WTI or Brent Crude prices. Crude doesn't go in your car, it goes into a refinery and is turned into lots of things, one of which is gasoline. Unlike crude, Gasoline isn't subject to any export bans, and is traded at that Bloomberg price world wide (it looks like the price now is $2.64/gal, pre taxes, shipping, storage, etc).
The moral of this story is that this stuff is actually pretty complex and jumping to conspiracy theories about oil companies, while appealing, doesn't always lead you to the right answer.
Nope. The price for gasoline is pretty much the same everywhere in the world (it's traded on the commodity markets just like corn and other things). The only reason for price differences between regions are shipping, storage and taxes. There is no opportunity to sell gasoline for 3X the price to China.
Dude, you realize this is Canadian oil that will flow through the pipeline, not American. It already can be exported... the export ban only governs US produced oil...
And in general, while US produced crude oil can't be exported, US refineries just turn it into gasoline and then export it because that is allowed (the law is strange). So gasoline prices wouldn't go up if the export law is changed, you'd still pay the same at the pump (gas is expensive in Europe for example because of very high taxes on gas). This really only affects US oil producers and refiners.
Honestly not sure I can say much about about quality comparisons, but I can say in 2012 they had number one market share in terms of sales to corporate customers worldwide [Source: Gartner]. Fourth in the US, but still, I would hardly say only morons buy them.
Are you sure this is right? It has been a while since I took physics, but I tried to derive this. It would seem x = t, y = C - kt^2 which is definitely a parabola... What am I missing? I'm genuinely curious...
That's fair, although did you notice he's planning to give $100K each to three up and coming junior researchers each year? (I assume this means grad students/post-docs). Admittedly it's not the same as $3M, but still, I'm sure the average physics researcher at that level would really appreciate the money.
Just read it. Fair points, I wouldn't contend that the people of Japan are all running around in poverty. It's not an across the board awful country or something.
That said, your article basically says, yeah, GDP isn't great but look at all these other good things! My point is that their GDP isn't growing. They are in ludicrous amounts of debt. Their companies are losing their competitiveness (have you seen how much money Sony has been losing lately?). They are facing serious long term demographic challenges related to their population aging. Hell, they can barely keep the lights on! (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/25/japan-power-minister-idUST9E8EM02G20120425). Heck, we can trade articles, I think this makes my point quite clearly: http://www.economist.com/node/21556596.
It has been bad for them lately, and things are only going to get worse if (when) interest rates on their debt rise.
As for the ad hominem, I double majored in Mathematics and Economics at a top 10 school in the US; I graduated with high honors. I wrote my thesis on sovereign bonds. I do, in fact, know what I'm talking about. Do you?
So, I was a little confused by your Japan example. I could be missing something, but it seems like you are saying they are a model China should try to imitate.
Japan is an economic joke! Their economy has been in recession or barely growing since the early nineties. They've basically stagnated for the last 20 years. Their government is so in debt (230% of GDP) that they make Greece (165%) and Spain (69%) look fiscally responsible! (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt)
Despite the complaining most people do about the crappiness of airlines, they don't back up their behavior. The reason US airlines are so crappy nowadays is because people shop almost exclusively on price. They just fire up orbitz or whatever and pick the cheapest. This will, of course, result in every airline cutting their services to bare bones levels like they are now so they can lower the price. People say they want nice, but won't put their money where their mouth is, so we have what we have now.
I guess its not 2 billion but check it out (Press release from DOE website):
Department of Energy Offers $102 Million Conditional Commitment for Loan Guarantee to U.S. Geothermal, Inc.
Oregon Project is First Geothermal Project to Receive Conditional Commitment
link: http://www.lgprogram.energy.gov/press/061010.pdf
I think these econophysicists are in error with regard to calling corporate bonds a bubble. A bubble is when prices are out of whack rather than based on some underlying fundamentals. But corporate bond yields were high for a reason. Major companies (Lehman, GM, etc) were going bankrupt left and right. Many companies were being downgraded by the rating agencies. It was the worst recession in 70 years. Of course bond yields were high. People were really worried about default. Now that many companies have started reporting improved earnings though, of course they are returning to normals and the "bubble" is going away. Anyway, the moral of the story is that corporate bonds were clearly not in a bubble.
Uhh seriously? Because this comment is so ridiculous I don't even know where to start. I just graduated yesterday after four years at Berkeley. It's a huge campus and so not everyone is liberal, but its overwhelmingly very very far left wing. Both the professors and the students. And have you ever been to the co-ops? It seems for many of them the sixties never ended. I'm quite left of center, but I sometimes feel like a republican relative to many on the campus.
And the frat/sorority system isn't quite typical either. Sure there are some douchy frat boys and tanorexic sorority girls, but there are also many people who you wouldn't suspect to be in frats. I know one guy graduated to become a NASA engineer. I know a sorority girl who is working at Google next year. There are so many more examples it would be ridiculous to name them all.
And the protests? Last November there were protests against state budget cuts where a huge number of people showed up. Like maybe 5000? Not to mention the tree sitters, the hunger strikers, the unions, the riots this semester, the protesters who took over Wheeler, the popularity of the new Global Poverty minor etc etc etc.
I guess you can talk about the funding we get from corporations. The BP deal is a bit sketchy, but it's 500 million dollars, we need that money. I hardly think this makes Berkeley overwhelmingly right wing. And the whole John Yoo thing is a bit weird, and I'm not sure what should be done about that, but damn dude, UC Berkeley is amazingly liberal.
Your comment is very misleading: Sales, General and Administrative is not merely marketing expenses. It includes, among other things, the salaries of everyone at the company (thus the word general) and numerous other expenses. Therefore it is not accurate to use SG&A as a substitute for marketing costs.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SG%26A
Sounds interesting. I'm studying economics and my roommate is studying biology and has work experience in biofuels. Would you be able to send me your model/spreadsheet? If so my email is em_green at berkeley dot e d u. Thanks!
Not if the people are too afraid about losing their job to spend their tax cuts on a new car, computer, etc. which is how it is currently looking. Also, tax cuts will never be 100% efficient because not all of the cuts will be spent in a useful time frame. They take a couple of months to propagate their way through the govt bureaucracy and into peoples' bank accounts.
Interestingly enough, with reference to that 5% of GDP military spending is the fact the the US military spending is only 4% of GDP. Although this doesn't count the whole Iraq war debacle, the point is that while we do spend a large amount of money on military, our economy is so damn big that proportionally we're fine.
Regardless of whether or not Hamas and other Arab states mean the "no live jew" rhetoric, I think in light of the Holocaust Israel feels as if they have to take such rhetoric seriously.
I mean, after what happened in WW2, its easy to see why they might be a tad on edge when someone raises the specter of extermination.
Maybe this is being too pedantic, but commercial paper isn't the term for a short term loan to another bank. Commercial paper is used by large companies when they need a short term loan
Loans between banks are just called interbank loans. The desire for banks to lend to one another is measured through something called the TED spread and its the worst its ever been. So you're right, credit is pretty tough to get right now for everyone.
I agree wholeheartedly. In the comments for the China spacewalk article there were a number of people who seemed to bash the US as somewhat of a space "has been"
While China's accomplishments are noteworthy, SpaceX together with Rutan's engineering at Virgin Galactic assure me that America will continue to be a leader in space.
Pretty clear?! Oil has gone up from 100$ to 130$ in the last month or two. Thats thirty percent.
The dollar has not lost thirty percent of its value in the last few months.
I think you're incorrect in the first part of your post. First, food is pretty darn cheap, much cheaper than say, heart surgery or even something "small" like an appendectomy. But even so, there are some who can't afford it. What do we do in the United States? Do we just say Boo Hoo and let them starve? NO! We have programs to ensure the poor are fed, such as food stamps. Likewise with shelter: Most people in the US can live somewhere, even if it is an old RV in a trailer park. There are homeless people and we do at least make an effort that they don't sleep out on the street. We fail of course, but without homeless shelters and such I would imagine the problem would be much worse.
Of course, you will say that this isn't the same as nationalizing the food industry, and you're right. The difference is that its pretty cheap to put food in your belly and some sort of roof over your head. Medical care is not. If you get pretty sick, and you are not very very wealthy, you're pretty fucked. Of course, there is insurance. This isn't a perfect system either: its still not cheap. Lots of people truly can't afford it. Plus the companies have every economic incentive to treat you as little as possible, and if you're seriously ill it is better for their balance sheet to just let you die. This is definitely a problem. So something is pretty wrong. Somehow people, ALL people, need health coverage. They aren't getting it. National health care would do it. Other systems might too, but something definitely has to change, and it seems the government must be involved in at least some manner.
Slashdot Mirror
The moral of this story is that this stuff is actually pretty complex and jumping to conspiracy theories about oil companies, while appealing, doesn't always lead you to the right answer.
Nope. The price for gasoline is pretty much the same everywhere in the world (it's traded on the commodity markets just like corn and other things). The only reason for price differences between regions are shipping, storage and taxes. There is no opportunity to sell gasoline for 3X the price to China.
And in general, while US produced crude oil can't be exported, US refineries just turn it into gasoline and then export it because that is allowed (the law is strange). So gasoline prices wouldn't go up if the export law is changed, you'd still pay the same at the pump (gas is expensive in Europe for example because of very high taxes on gas). This really only affects US oil producers and refiners.
Anyway, calm down and read up on the oil markets.
Honestly not sure I can say much about about quality comparisons, but I can say in 2012 they had number one market share in terms of sales to corporate customers worldwide [Source: Gartner]. Fourth in the US, but still, I would hardly say only morons buy them.
Are you sure this is right? It has been a while since I took physics, but I tried to derive this. It would seem x = t, y = C - kt^2 which is definitely a parabola... What am I missing? I'm genuinely curious...
That's fair, although did you notice he's planning to give $100K each to three up and coming junior researchers each year? (I assume this means grad students/post-docs). Admittedly it's not the same as $3M, but still, I'm sure the average physics researcher at that level would really appreciate the money.
Just read it. Fair points, I wouldn't contend that the people of Japan are all running around in poverty. It's not an across the board awful country or something.
That said, your article basically says, yeah, GDP isn't great but look at all these other good things! My point is that their GDP isn't growing. They are in ludicrous amounts of debt. Their companies are losing their competitiveness (have you seen how much money Sony has been losing lately?). They are facing serious long term demographic challenges related to their population aging. Hell, they can barely keep the lights on! (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/25/japan-power-minister-idUST9E8EM02G20120425). Heck, we can trade articles, I think this makes my point quite clearly: http://www.economist.com/node/21556596.
It has been bad for them lately, and things are only going to get worse if (when) interest rates on their debt rise.
As for the ad hominem, I double majored in Mathematics and Economics at a top 10 school in the US; I graduated with high honors. I wrote my thesis on sovereign bonds. I do, in fact, know what I'm talking about. Do you?
So, I was a little confused by your Japan example. I could be missing something, but it seems like you are saying they are a model China should try to imitate.
Japan is an economic joke! Their economy has been in recession or barely growing since the early nineties. They've basically stagnated for the last 20 years. Their government is so in debt (230% of GDP) that they make Greece (165%) and Spain (69%) look fiscally responsible! (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt)
China should not aim to be like Japan.
Despite the complaining most people do about the crappiness of airlines, they don't back up their behavior. The reason US airlines are so crappy nowadays is because people shop almost exclusively on price. They just fire up orbitz or whatever and pick the cheapest. This will, of course, result in every airline cutting their services to bare bones levels like they are now so they can lower the price. People say they want nice, but won't put their money where their mouth is, so we have what we have now.
I guess its not 2 billion but check it out (Press release from DOE website): Department of Energy Offers $102 Million Conditional Commitment for Loan Guarantee to U.S. Geothermal, Inc. Oregon Project is First Geothermal Project to Receive Conditional Commitment link: http://www.lgprogram.energy.gov/press/061010.pdf
I think these econophysicists are in error with regard to calling corporate bonds a bubble. A bubble is when prices are out of whack rather than based on some underlying fundamentals. But corporate bond yields were high for a reason. Major companies (Lehman, GM, etc) were going bankrupt left and right. Many companies were being downgraded by the rating agencies. It was the worst recession in 70 years. Of course bond yields were high. People were really worried about default. Now that many companies have started reporting improved earnings though, of course they are returning to normals and the "bubble" is going away. Anyway, the moral of the story is that corporate bonds were clearly not in a bubble.
And the frat/sorority system isn't quite typical either. Sure there are some douchy frat boys and tanorexic sorority girls, but there are also many people who you wouldn't suspect to be in frats. I know one guy graduated to become a NASA engineer. I know a sorority girl who is working at Google next year. There are so many more examples it would be ridiculous to name them all.
And the protests? Last November there were protests against state budget cuts where a huge number of people showed up. Like maybe 5000? Not to mention the tree sitters, the hunger strikers, the unions, the riots this semester, the protesters who took over Wheeler, the popularity of the new Global Poverty minor etc etc etc.
I guess you can talk about the funding we get from corporations. The BP deal is a bit sketchy, but it's 500 million dollars, we need that money. I hardly think this makes Berkeley overwhelmingly right wing. And the whole John Yoo thing is a bit weird, and I'm not sure what should be done about that, but damn dude, UC Berkeley is amazingly liberal.
I thought the acronym was PIIGS, the S being for Spain which is also in a pretty deep hole.
Your comment is very misleading: Sales, General and Administrative is not merely marketing expenses. It includes, among other things, the salaries of everyone at the company (thus the word general) and numerous other expenses. Therefore it is not accurate to use SG&A as a substitute for marketing costs. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SG%26A
Sounds interesting. I'm studying economics and my roommate is studying biology and has work experience in biofuels. Would you be able to send me your model/spreadsheet? If so my email is em_green at berkeley dot e d u. Thanks!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_efficient
Not if the people are too afraid about losing their job to spend their tax cuts on a new car, computer, etc. which is how it is currently looking. Also, tax cuts will never be 100% efficient because not all of the cuts will be spent in a useful time frame. They take a couple of months to propagate their way through the govt bureaucracy and into peoples' bank accounts.
Interestingly enough, with reference to that 5% of GDP military spending is the fact the the US military spending is only 4% of GDP. Although this doesn't count the whole Iraq war debacle, the point is that while we do spend a large amount of money on military, our economy is so damn big that proportionally we're fine.
Regardless of whether or not Hamas and other Arab states mean the "no live jew" rhetoric, I think in light of the Holocaust Israel feels as if they have to take such rhetoric seriously. I mean, after what happened in WW2, its easy to see why they might be a tad on edge when someone raises the specter of extermination.
Hell, the 7-11 taquitos were probably worse for your body than the pot anyway...
RICO doesn't cover Election Fraud. Probably you should read the Wikipedia page on what it does cover before you start waving it around.
Maybe this is being too pedantic, but commercial paper isn't the term for a short term loan to another bank. Commercial paper is used by large companies when they need a short term loan Loans between banks are just called interbank loans. The desire for banks to lend to one another is measured through something called the TED spread and its the worst its ever been. So you're right, credit is pretty tough to get right now for everyone.
While China's accomplishments are noteworthy, SpaceX together with Rutan's engineering at Virgin Galactic assure me that America will continue to be a leader in space.
Pretty clear?! Oil has gone up from 100$ to 130$ in the last month or two. Thats thirty percent. The dollar has not lost thirty percent of its value in the last few months.
Of course, you will say that this isn't the same as nationalizing the food industry, and you're right. The difference is that its pretty cheap to put food in your belly and some sort of roof over your head. Medical care is not. If you get pretty sick, and you are not very very wealthy, you're pretty fucked. Of course, there is insurance. This isn't a perfect system either: its still not cheap. Lots of people truly can't afford it. Plus the companies have every economic incentive to treat you as little as possible, and if you're seriously ill it is better for their balance sheet to just let you die. This is definitely a problem. So something is pretty wrong. Somehow people, ALL people, need health coverage. They aren't getting it. National health care would do it. Other systems might too, but something definitely has to change, and it seems the government must be involved in at least some manner.