But we can automate part of his job and then cut his salary in half. You repeat this long enough and eventually there will be no truck drivers. The small places that this new world cannot deliver with goods will just die out. It is true people always find something to do etc - I just wonder how many nail polishers we will have.
I think USA have a solution to this problem that would actually work. Its only problem is that it is hated by liberals - firearms. Give that with enough ammo to everybody and the problem is resolved quickly. You will need some more prisons at the start but this will fix itself after the generation passes.
This thing about emotions clouding the judgment - this may be a good thing or not depending on emotions but also logic that drives the bare metal decision maker - pure economic decision about the human being is that owners of the universe need only some. The whole rest we do not need. Nobody does. This is not a problem if when no job is to be found I can move away and find a land on which I can grow food for myself and build a simple shelter. Look around and tell me where that piece of land can be? All habitable land is owned. There are quite some mountains, deserts and tundra. Not sure how easy the survival there is however. Besides these lands have local population already - north of Africa 380m with income below 1.25$ which means not that easy to settle there. The final decision about outsourcing last human position to an AI will be made by owner of the company that had the position. I think it was Galbraith who said that equilibrium is not where all are happy. It is where minority owns it all, majority lives in poverty and some of them doing menial jobs and security for owners. As long as I am the owner I do not mind. It is rather awkward when you think these scenarios to their conclusion. But of course there is always another day in this perfect world. I just find it funny how some of us here throw verbal abuse at luddities because progress is only fun and good.
the statistics in most industrialized countries seem to show different trend - the unemployment grows rather than hovering around some given value
newly created jobs tend to be so called odd jobs less well paid service stuff - nail painting comes to mind or anything else that Germans call Precariat
As for ludite fallacy - maybe it is or maybe it is not, depends on whether we are nearing singularity or not. BTW: just claiming something is a fallacy does not automagically make it so.
Your assumption that it was always so, therefore it will happen again looks to me like what M. Twain said about Mississippi
Previous technological and economic revolutions made a lots of people idle - they were always able to migrate to big 'empty' lands to bypass the ownership trap in their old countries. That does not seem to be possible no more
In other words you claim does not seem to be all that valid this time around. At least some doubts are mandated. We shall see of course. This manna thing that gets to mention every time by such occasion here is just a good start to think about it. StarTrek society will never exist. There is always struggle. It just depends how difficult it is going to be. I personally do not care no more. I just pity the kids.
The story is an utopia or an attempt to show what the author thinks are solutions. Read "second species" that follow the story. There is more to it there.
As for the 1% star trek like society and 99% living in poverty - this is not real poverty - they have food and shelter so this does not compare with the times where extreme poverty and food shortages caused revolutions or at least riots. Surely bored humans can be dangerous but rather in unorganized way. The reasons they would stay unorganized are listed in the "second species" too.
BTW you can just as well wonder what society would allow and could stand immigration of the sort that happens at the end of the book. We see what happens in Germany, Sweden and Austria - there is no way all these billions of people would be allowed to (what can be understood as) paradise and this paradise would not collapse. Unless of course the paradise is putting all people brains on the shelf and the whole paradise is just VR. Just a thought of mine after reading this again.
There is no escape poverty and misery by technological progress. Even if successful this will make some to migrate to places where that is not so (edges of the inhabited universe). And success of that is limited by how much energy we can produce, how much we can consume without the world collapsing under the waste and most importantly - the humanity knows only two relatively stable misery states: growth and when that is finished a short period of peaceful decline before collapse which is then caused by external factors that declining society cannot cope with like savages from behind limes or ecological and/or economic disaster (Vikings in Greenland). It never happened any other way. Maybe in the future this will be different but I doubt. "savages from beyond Limes" are quite interesting subject on its own too. The problem with them is not that the are worse than natives - they just dilute the society to the point there is no institutional memory to support common works like sanitation or water supply and they usually have no mercy for the natives too which becomes important when they become majority. I wonder how this will come about with the elite owning the robots.
I am just wondering how that was before. Is this social society of today with pressure to express yourself according to PC policies not actively against these people?
We will be ostracized anyway - can just as well have a meaning in life exactly as you say.
Modern society has other barriers too pressure on social contacts is ok - you can learn that and for instance behave better towards minorities than colleagues. But people get offended by straight answers anyway.
Maybe he did not have money for good lawyers and accepted the deal to make sure he goes out of jail before he dies? For a prosecutor this makes goig after bigger fish much easier. US legal system is just crap - went quite far from the origins.
This has not much to do with D-K: your job is simple and I do not understand why it takes so much time and why you failed to deliver on time etc because it is so easy etc. - because I have never done it. Also: you are stupid a-e because you do not appreciate how difficult and tricky my current task is. These two work most of the time. There is also a genius part, I had few of those in my team some years back - really good developers. They could not understand the whole idea of a bigger team. I took our git repo and calculated what our 50persons team did over last year (this did not include testing and deployment configurations for which we had another repos but I wanted to have mercy on them) and asked them if they were able to write this many lines of code per day - not even if they were writing every day and were not making any mistakes. Well they disagreed with me but my calculations ended the discussion. The point is: even smart people underestimate complexity and costs of jobs that they do not do as well as efforts and skill needed to accomplish them.
I recall working for telecom vendor in 90ties - they had to comply with a requirement of max 60s/year downtime including upgrades and this also HW upgrades with calls not allowed to be interrupted for more than 500ms. I laugh (trough tears, I admit) when I work for ISP and also telecom operators these days. Cutting costs and increasing complexity does not really do anybody any favours. Good the customers are used to crappy service and this in EU. I wonder how bad the average service must be in US - judging by posts on/. quite bad. Fortunately we all are racing the same direction - with some glorious exceptions but these, as somebody here said, achieve actual HA with application being designed for it.
They need some time to learn it too. In essence any job is 'just following procedures'. Only 'following procedures' may be as simple as 'if A then B' or quite complex with quite some freedom to develop ad hoc 'procedures'. You need to have a good and motivated team and a good manager to do that. My ex boss always claimed that the cleaning lady could do my job too. I always agreed, pointing out that it could take the time to learn the 'process', languages used and the language spoken by customer (documentation) - after that she could fail or flee too with her small pay and this high expectation.... He knew very well what I meant. My current boss does not.
Just let me get this straight - instead of state monopoly on giving a licenses to enterprises that want to do taxi business we want to abandon that commie business of laws and regulations and go for one big Uber has it all monopoly?
In other words you replace a monopoly of law issuing with monopoly of Uber service provision. What is there for me - a little citizen?
It is in fact part of the system in which our species operate. Violence is just one effect of the free (as far as it gets) and different will of an individual. This always leads to conflicts. Some of them small some of them big but some of them big and without a chance of peaceful solution (for different reasons - fast dynamic leading to conflict of armed parties preventing a negotiated solution may be one example). So there it is - a chance of violence. As soon as you recognize that you have to be prepared even if you deplore aggression. If so then selling arms to make own effort cheaper is just part of the game too.
you mean like 'we all lost' forever? Is it not too statist a view of reality?
It is changing constantly which is fortunately. I was actually and I think I still am in favour of European cooperation. What I am not in favour of is ever bigger corporation getting in ever smaller details of our lives (CETA/TTIP etc) and us citizens not having a chance to say no. With each of these changes some good things may come.That is true. Quite some bad things come too and if EU wants to survive then it better acknowledge that and try to do something about it.
So all the brexiters are ignorant xenophobes? This may mean that all the pro EU propaganda (*) was actually true. Or maybe it means that the said propaganda just works.
* - I know of course that both sides have been producing propaganda mostly i.e. lying with every breath. That is the nature of propaganda. I would have expected one side to lie less though, but I guess that was just naive of me.
Without 20m of ignorant voters - I wonder what the result would be. Also who would we need to exclude in case the result were not as we wanted it to be.
By throwing verbal abuse you indeed prove that you are in the more intelligent, better educated and with expertise equipped minority of geniuses that voted for staying in.
No wonder you lost.
Slashdot Mirror
But we can automate part of his job and then cut his salary in half. You repeat this long enough and eventually there will be no truck drivers. The small places that this new world cannot deliver with goods will just die out. It is true people always find something to do etc - I just wonder how many nail polishers we will have.
He is there only as a distraction so that they (we?) think that there is still a chance there.
tranquilizers - syntetic ones are cheaper and more potent than anything humanity could get out of nature.
I think USA have a solution to this problem that would actually work. Its only problem is that it is hated by liberals - firearms. Give that with enough ammo to everybody and the problem is resolved quickly. You will need some more prisons at the start but this will fix itself after the generation passes.
And the rest we will feed into soylent green grinders.
This thing about emotions clouding the judgment - this may be a good thing or not depending on emotions but also logic that drives the bare metal decision maker - pure economic decision about the human being is that owners of the universe need only some. The whole rest we do not need. Nobody does. This is not a problem if when no job is to be found I can move away and find a land on which I can grow food for myself and build a simple shelter. Look around and tell me where that piece of land can be? All habitable land is owned. There are quite some mountains, deserts and tundra. Not sure how easy the survival there is however. Besides these lands have local population already - north of Africa 380m with income below 1.25$ which means not that easy to settle there. The final decision about outsourcing last human position to an AI will be made by owner of the company that had the position. I think it was Galbraith who said that equilibrium is not where all are happy. It is where minority owns it all, majority lives in poverty and some of them doing menial jobs and security for owners. As long as I am the owner I do not mind. It is rather awkward when you think these scenarios to their conclusion. But of course there is always another day in this perfect world. I just find it funny how some of us here throw verbal abuse at luddities because progress is only fun and good.
In other words you claim does not seem to be all that valid this time around. At least some doubts are mandated. We shall see of course. This manna thing that gets to mention every time by such occasion here is just a good start to think about it. StarTrek society will never exist. There is always struggle. It just depends how difficult it is going to be. I personally do not care no more. I just pity the kids.
The story is an utopia or an attempt to show what the author thinks are solutions. Read "second species" that follow the story. There is more to it there.
As for the 1% star trek like society and 99% living in poverty - this is not real poverty - they have food and shelter so this does not compare with the times where extreme poverty and food shortages caused revolutions or at least riots. Surely bored humans can be dangerous but rather in unorganized way. The reasons they would stay unorganized are listed in the "second species" too.
BTW you can just as well wonder what society would allow and could stand immigration of the sort that happens at the end of the book. We see what happens in Germany, Sweden and Austria - there is no way all these billions of people would be allowed to (what can be understood as) paradise and this paradise would not collapse. Unless of course the paradise is putting all people brains on the shelf and the whole paradise is just VR. Just a thought of mine after reading this again.
There is no escape poverty and misery by technological progress. Even if successful this will make some to migrate to places where that is not so (edges of the inhabited universe). And success of that is limited by how much energy we can produce, how much we can consume without the world collapsing under the waste and most importantly - the humanity knows only two relatively stable misery states: growth and when that is finished a short period of peaceful decline before collapse which is then caused by external factors that declining society cannot cope with like savages from behind limes or ecological and/or economic disaster (Vikings in Greenland). It never happened any other way. Maybe in the future this will be different but I doubt. "savages from beyond Limes" are quite interesting subject on its own too. The problem with them is not that the are worse than natives - they just dilute the society to the point there is no institutional memory to support common works like sanitation or water supply and they usually have no mercy for the natives too which becomes important when they become majority. I wonder how this will come about with the elite owning the robots.
I am just wondering how that was before. Is this social society of today with pressure to express yourself according to PC policies not actively against these people?
We will be ostracized anyway - can just as well have a meaning in life exactly as you say.
Modern society has other barriers too pressure on social contacts is ok - you can learn that and for instance behave better towards minorities than colleagues. But people get offended by straight answers anyway.
That is a sign you are getting old.
VW has indeed a history of taking care for fallen children look at Mr. Harz and listen to the silence.
Maybe he did not have money for good lawyers and accepted the deal to make sure he goes out of jail before he dies? For a prosecutor this makes goig after bigger fish much easier. US legal system is just crap - went quite far from the origins.
This has not much to do with D-K: your job is simple and I do not understand why it takes so much time and why you failed to deliver on time etc because it is so easy etc. - because I have never done it. Also: you are stupid a-e because you do not appreciate how difficult and tricky my current task is. These two work most of the time. There is also a genius part, I had few of those in my team some years back - really good developers. They could not understand the whole idea of a bigger team. I took our git repo and calculated what our 50persons team did over last year (this did not include testing and deployment configurations for which we had another repos but I wanted to have mercy on them) and asked them if they were able to write this many lines of code per day - not even if they were writing every day and were not making any mistakes. Well they disagreed with me but my calculations ended the discussion.
The point is: even smart people underestimate complexity and costs of jobs that they do not do as well as efforts and skill needed to accomplish them.
I recall working for telecom vendor in 90ties - they had to comply with a requirement of max 60s/year downtime including upgrades and this also HW upgrades with calls not allowed to be interrupted for more than 500ms. I laugh (trough tears, I admit) when I work for ISP and also telecom operators these days. Cutting costs and increasing complexity does not really do anybody any favours. Good the customers are used to crappy service and this in EU. I wonder how bad the average service must be in US - judging by posts on /. quite bad. Fortunately we all are racing the same direction - with some glorious exceptions but these, as somebody here said, achieve actual HA with application being designed for it.
They need some time to learn it too. In essence any job is 'just following procedures'. Only 'following procedures' may be as simple as 'if A then B' or quite complex with quite some freedom to develop ad hoc 'procedures'. You need to have a good and motivated team and a good manager to do that. My ex boss always claimed that the cleaning lady could do my job too. I always agreed, pointing out that it could take the time to learn the 'process', languages used and the language spoken by customer (documentation) - after that she could fail or flee too with her small pay and this high expectation.... He knew very well what I meant. My current boss does not.
Just let me get this straight - instead of state monopoly on giving a licenses to enterprises that want to do taxi business we want to abandon that commie business of laws and regulations and go for one big Uber has it all monopoly?
In other words you replace a monopoly of law issuing with monopoly of Uber service provision. What is there for me - a little citizen?
greatness does not require savagery and violence. It just comes with them.
It is in fact part of the system in which our species operate. Violence is just one effect of the free (as far as it gets) and different will of an individual. This always leads to conflicts. Some of them small some of them big but some of them big and without a chance of peaceful solution (for different reasons - fast dynamic leading to conflict of armed parties preventing a negotiated solution may be one example). So there it is - a chance of violence. As soon as you recognize that you have to be prepared even if you deplore aggression. If so then selling arms to make own effort cheaper is just part of the game too.
you mean like 'we all lost' forever? Is it not too statist a view of reality? It is changing constantly which is fortunately. I was actually and I think I still am in favour of European cooperation. What I am not in favour of is ever bigger corporation getting in ever smaller details of our lives (CETA/TTIP etc) and us citizens not having a chance to say no. With each of these changes some good things may come.That is true. Quite some bad things come too and if EU wants to survive then it better acknowledge that and try to do something about it.
What is that?
So all the brexiters are ignorant xenophobes? This may mean that all the pro EU propaganda (*) was actually true. Or maybe it means that the said propaganda just works.
* - I know of course that both sides have been producing propaganda mostly i.e. lying with every breath. That is the nature of propaganda. I would have expected one side to lie less though, but I guess that was just naive of me.
This is however not what the unelected oligarchs in Brussels and their lackeys in media are want to see.
Without 20m of ignorant voters - I wonder what the result would be. Also who would we need to exclude in case the result were not as we wanted it to be.
By throwing verbal abuse you indeed prove that you are in the more intelligent, better educated and with expertise equipped minority of geniuses that voted for staying in.
No wonder you lost.
You mean that no further news are because of NSA?