Please do give me credit. I too have 2^7 insightful and 35 level achievements last time I checked. I understand the difference between free beer and free speech.
Your demand is not unreasonable. Just think it through, "exactly where I need it". What is the size of "where I need it"? One city block? Half a mile? Within 1 mile of any exit on the highway? You are used to gas car way of driving, which is to keep driving, and when it suddenly dawns on you that you are low in fuel you expect to find it within a few minutes/miles.
When I punch a destination in my Tesla, it includes charging stops and the time to charge in its calculations. Even before you start your trip, the Tesla would know where you would need to charge, take you there. It is not all that inconvenient. I accept it might still not be acceptable to *you*. But think how many people would be willing to put up with this "nuisance" when electric miles cost one fourth or gas miles. Once those people leave the ICE market, you think your car can be traded in? Your next car will have sufficient volume to maintain 115K gas stations ticking along? Will have the same mass production advantages?
When you want to buy your car, you use your personal situation and taste. When you want to predict what rest of the country is going to do, you use averages. Cost parity between ICEV and BEV is upon us. Within three years. Gas miles are three to four times more expensive than electric miles. Already TCO is better for many BEV owners. Typical car life is 10 to 15 years. Brand new cars bought in the next three years will see serious erosion of their resale value.
Because I am trying point out to you how much fewer charging stations we need. There are 115,000 gas stations. You need 2% of that number of charging stations. There are already 1100 charging stations by Tesla alone. It does not even have 0.2% of the share of the vehicles on the road. Long before your gas car gives up its ghost there will be enough.
Some shorts rented drones and private planes and counted the cars in transit and kept reporting Tesla is not selling the cars, it is being stock piled, and the demand is tanking and the company is probably committing fraud in Enron scale. Turned out to be totally bogus.
Very funny to read about some photo showing one car with hood open, and these shorts speculating, "they are fixing something in the engine". (The frunk is empty, it is a small storage compartment and you open the hood to put the car in tow mode to load it on a carrier. )
One bond traders made millions by noting Alan Greenspan used a thicker briefcase on the day he announced rate hikes compared to the days he left the interest rate alone.
The FedEX guy picking up the packages from our company in 1990s said he noted down the number of packages being shipped on the quarter ending evening. He always bought the stock if it showed significant jump over the previous quarter.
For all that talk about these techniques, the day before Tesla announced its third quarter results, real old fashioned bean counting led a very notable short (named Left, some company called Citron) to reverse course and announce publicly he was no longer shorting Tesla. S3 partners calculated that announcement made 1 billion loss for the shorts.
So, yes, novel methods are being discovered. But it is rounding error compared to old fashioned standard research.
Or take a bus, or train. Driving there gives you your own car there, saving on rental.
An hour to drive to airport, 90 minutes before departure for security, gate rape by TSA, one more hour from airport to destination, need for a car rental there, additional wait times on the rental shuttle and the rental office....
Flying is simply not worth it for less than 400 miles. Most people already avoid flights, squeezing the profits and revenue of airlines. That leads to more cost cutting and more squeezing of passengers....
You fail to consider one fact... people cannot tell the future..
Most people cant. But it is the job of some people. Tesla is valued at some 50 billion. As much as Ford and third of Toyota. Toyota 40 million vehicles global sales a year. . Even with Elon's antics and tweets and stuff, the stock never fell below 250$, never below 35 billion dollar valuation.
70% of the TSLA stock is held by mutual funds and institutions. They study the market, trend future, send teams to investigate Tesla. These are not fanbois, these are your regular bean counters. They dont depend on streettalk.com or marketgossip.com or seekingbeta.com or bullsandbears.com or any click bait site. When they send their accountants to review the books or teams to check on reported safety violation, the Tesla investor relations will comply.
Heck, I am a lowly developer in my company and I have been asked to meet with people from the mutual funds, once in a while. Future is dark for the ICE. They will transition to BEV, with various degrees of pain and successes.
I agree with your tag line. You have 2^5 insightful comments and achievement level 24. I still think I can persuade you.
You dont need that many super charging stations. Imagine you have machine that will produce a few drops of gasoline a minute from your gas line. Imagine such a device in every garage. How many gas stations would you need?
In an ICEV every joule comes from gas stations. In BEV universe only 2% of the energy needed to drive comes from super chargers. We need 50 times fewer gas stations. You dont need superchargers as ubiquitos as Wava or Sheetz. There are already 1200 super chargers for the minuscule market share of Teslas. Tesla will build more as it sells more cars. The super charger network is its signature selling point, where it is ahead of competition and it is quite cheap to expand it, if you accept this as a loss leader, a necessary expense to sell cars.
There will never be a network of third party independent chain like gas stations. The revenue stream is minuscule. Every super charging session I had, I paid 3$, 5$ and 7$. I am yet to pay in double digits. Such poor revenue stream and such large cap ex, and so many regulatory hurdles, (Tesla cant sell electricity by kWh, did you know that?) all charge points and electrify america networks are all going to fail.
What will be the total revenue of the charging networks? Gas stations sell 450 billion $ a year. EV is 4 times cheaper. So you are at 112.5 billion revenue potential. Only 2% charge on the road, 98% at home or hotel. Now you are 2.5 billion a year max revenue when you have 100% EV market share. Peanuts, Only a company accepting it as a loss leader will build a network. Tesla. Thought this far ahead.
You have a lower id, and have some decent achievements, 25. So I am not treating you as a troll, but as person who has not been fully informed about this topic. I have treated you with respect. Just read my response and think about it a little, that is all I ask.
Why do stupid things like depending on BP website. Think logically.
Most homes own two cars. Their overnight charging rate is around 3 kW for about 3 hours on average per car [*]. It is like running the A/C at full blast for about six hours per night per home. ALL the homes
Do we have a situation where every home, office, retail stores and factory is running their A/Cs full blast for six long continuous hours?
Yes we do. Every summer afternoon, evening peak load is due to precisely that condition. And the grid can take it. There are fluctuations and spot price of electricity goes crazy, but in general the grid can supply that kind of power.
So we do have the capacity to charge ALL the cars of the country, as long as they do it off peak. They already do, naturally, charging at night. Add a little bit of incentive in the form of off peak prices, we can do it. We will have some spare power left to shred all the stupid studies published by BP, too.
[*] 12000 miles per car per year. 1000 miles a month. 33 miles a day. Some cars might charge 300 miles but others will charge 2 miles and we are talking about the whole country and ALL the cars. So 33 miles a day per car is a good number. EV gives 4 miles per kWh. We need 8+ kWh per car. Charging at 3 kW rate we have between 2 and 3 hours of charging per car per night. Add a very generous margin and call it, 10 hours per night per household at 3 kW. Easy. We have the grid capacity. We have the generation capacity.
Let us assume what you say is true. Legacy car makers come in force, eat Tesla's lunch, and kill it off.
Now what would that do to ICE vehicles. They would be even more dead. That is a good thing.
World is buying some 90 million vehicles a year. Tesla is not going to be the monopoly supplier of 90 million vehicles a year. Lots of legacy car makers will switch to BEV with various degrees of reorganization. Some will die, some new ones will enter the market.
Who will have most pain? Companies with very serious ICE R&D technology, knowhow and production facilities. It is not a coincidence Jaguar is the first serious competitor fighting back. It has no ICE technology. Ford bought Jaguar, dismantled its engine R&D division and sold it to Tata of India. It is currently buying engines from outside, and it has a small engine making line somewhere under Land Rover name, I think. So it has less to lose when ICEs are gone.
Porsche, BMW, Honda all have very proud extremely great ICE technology. It is going to be valued like Blockbuster franchise in a decade. Their loss of valuation of ICE tech could be fatal to a few of such companies.
Oh and how many Supercharging stations are there around Wawa, Ontario?
This is what I mean by "people who are very unfamiliar with EV problems issues and solutions".
You dont need need lots of superchargers where you live. ALL your city driving miles will come out of an outlet in your garage. You need superchargers only on longer road trips. You need one supercharger 250 miles from your home in the direction you are traveling. Then super chargers placed about 60 miles apart. Anyway you will be breaking for restroom breaks and food breaks. There are always restrooms near super chargers. There are always fast food take outs. They EV solution is, to peel off the highway at around 250 miles from home, go to the supercharger. If the food choices are not good enough at the supercharger, you stop along the way and take out food of your choice. Put the car on charge, restroom break, eat the food, typically takes 30 minutes. Teslas typically pick up 150 miles in 30 minutes. You have 200 miles on the battery. Up to this point you have not spent any more time on EV than ICE. But have saved 10 to 15 minutes every week in daily driving. Only on the trips where you drove more than 450 miles on a single day you would spend more time on supercharging compared to refueling gas car.
EV miles are four times cheaper than gas miles,
All this is secondary. You can consider it all and still reject it. That is fine, if you do it with all relevant information and your personal situation and taste. But think of how many other people would make that switch to EV. That many people would not be be willing to buy your trade in gas car. You might end up depreciating your gas SUV by 10 or 15 K more than you anticipated. Be prepared for such a scenario in 7 years.
Even the anti Tesla folks who short Tesla say the competition is going to kill Tesla and TSLA is over valued. When they kill Tesla, they would have already totally destroyed resale value of all gasoline cars and SUVs, Remember that.
Your attitude is typical of people who have very marginal actual experience with EVs. Talk to EV owners you trust. Then you will learn. There are already 200,000 Tesla owners in USA. There would be someone near you. If not go to a supercharger, find a Tesla owner and talk to him/her.
They are used to small talk at the superchargers.
A car is the second most expensive thing you buy. You owe it to yourself to make sure the car you buy will not have unexpectedly large depreciation over 5 years.
And the plans are so likely to be rejected by the supervisory board, they want to do a press release and hope to create enough buzz and PR to get some reluctant concessions from the board.
For every Tesla-Killer they have on the drawing board, there are several Tesla-Killer-Killers on the supervisory board.
Very clearly Tesla has more credibility with the people. They lined up to pay the deposit. 80% of them are patiently waiting. Can any legacy car maker boast such faithful customer base? The valuation of TSLA stock is based on that.
We do have very good data on the reliability of electric power trains.
Diesel -electric locomotives took over the rail roads in USA in 1950. All of them are electric drive trains. There are pure electric trains/trams/street cars with overhead wires. Traction motor reliability is astounding.
It it interesting with the diesel electric locomotive. All the maintenance stops service the diesel engine. 16 cylinder 4800 HP to 6000 HP behemoths. The traction motors hardly get touched. These engines are not your typical automobile engines that strain in first and second gear. They have run always at constant rpm with optimum load balance all the time.
Yes that is what he means. A few times in the entire service life of his car.
I have Model3 since May. I have saved 10 minutes every week by not going to the gas stations for the daily city driving.
First 1200 mile round trip: Supercharged on the road for about 50 minutes more than gas station breaks. Second supercharge, a 300 mile round trip, 15 minutes just for peace of mind. Third trip recently, outbound no additional time, just 15 minutes supercharge. Return trip, no destination charger where I stayed, so took 30 minutes more than gas. Total extra 105 minutes on road trip vs saving 520 minutes a year on local driving. I leave home with a 240 miles on the battery every day.
Till they own it they dont know they are believing self serving propaganda from vested interests.
It is lame to announce 22K Battery car in 2020. Come on, you need to out do Elon.
Announce a 15K car in 2025 that runs on Atmospheric Engine, that gets free energy using the magnetic monopole and tapping into the zero point energy and the critical ingredient for the project, the red mercury has been secured. Then you are talking.
Er, what? no one would take such an announcement seriously?
Well, what makes you think they think other announcements and promises from that diesel cheat device innovator seriously?
The IC Engine is very unsuitable for vehicular use. The only they have going for them is the very short refueling time.
With over night charging, you need to use fast charge only on long distance travel.
Think about the number of days you have driven more than 300 miles in one day. Then ignore the first fill up of that trip, and count only the remaining fill ups. How many times did you do second or third fillup? You will need on the road charging only for those fill ups.
People who have never owned EV dont get it till they really think about it. In an gas car, every joule of energy turning the wheel came from a gas station. In an env 98% of the joules will come from the outlet in your garage. You charge on the road a few times a year.
Already you can get 120 miles of charge in 15 min, or 200 miles in 40 minutes in a Tesla. It is just a matter of time before we get 300 miles in 15 minutes. At that point the last remaining advantage of fueling time of ICE will vanish.
Slashdot Mirror
Your demand is not unreasonable. Just think it through, "exactly where I need it". What is the size of "where I need it"? One city block? Half a mile? Within 1 mile of any exit on the highway? You are used to gas car way of driving, which is to keep driving, and when it suddenly dawns on you that you are low in fuel you expect to find it within a few minutes/miles.
When I punch a destination in my Tesla, it includes charging stops and the time to charge in its calculations. Even before you start your trip, the Tesla would know where you would need to charge, take you there. It is not all that inconvenient. I accept it might still not be acceptable to *you*. But think how many people would be willing to put up with this "nuisance" when electric miles cost one fourth or gas miles. Once those people leave the ICE market, you think your car can be traded in? Your next car will have sufficient volume to maintain 115K gas stations ticking along? Will have the same mass production advantages?
When you want to buy your car, you use your personal situation and taste. When you want to predict what rest of the country is going to do, you use averages. Cost parity between ICEV and BEV is upon us. Within three years. Gas miles are three to four times more expensive than electric miles. Already TCO is better for many BEV owners. Typical car life is 10 to 15 years. Brand new cars bought in the next three years will see serious erosion of their resale value.
Because I am trying point out to you how much fewer charging stations we need. There are 115,000 gas stations. You need 2% of that number of charging stations. There are already 1100 charging stations by Tesla alone. It does not even have 0.2% of the share of the vehicles on the road. Long before your gas car gives up its ghost there will be enough.
Very funny to read about some photo showing one car with hood open, and these shorts speculating, "they are fixing something in the engine". (The frunk is empty, it is a small storage compartment and you open the hood to put the car in tow mode to load it on a carrier. )
The FedEX guy picking up the packages from our company in 1990s said he noted down the number of packages being shipped on the quarter ending evening. He always bought the stock if it showed significant jump over the previous quarter.
For all that talk about these techniques, the day before Tesla announced its third quarter results, real old fashioned bean counting led a very notable short (named Left, some company called Citron) to reverse course and announce publicly he was no longer shorting Tesla. S3 partners calculated that announcement made 1 billion loss for the shorts.
So, yes, novel methods are being discovered. But it is rounding error compared to old fashioned standard research.
An hour to drive to airport, 90 minutes before departure for security, gate rape by TSA, one more hour from airport to destination, need for a car rental there, additional wait times on the rental shuttle and the rental office....
Flying is simply not worth it for less than 400 miles. Most people already avoid flights, squeezing the profits and revenue of airlines. That leads to more cost cutting and more squeezing of passengers ....
You fail to consider one fact... people cannot tell the future. .
Most people cant. But it is the job of some people. Tesla is valued at some 50 billion. As much as Ford and third of Toyota. Toyota 40 million vehicles global sales a year. . Even with Elon's antics and tweets and stuff, the stock never fell below 250$, never below 35 billion dollar valuation.
70% of the TSLA stock is held by mutual funds and institutions. They study the market, trend future, send teams to investigate Tesla. These are not fanbois, these are your regular bean counters. They dont depend on streettalk.com or marketgossip.com or seekingbeta.com or bullsandbears.com or any click bait site. When they send their accountants to review the books or teams to check on reported safety violation, the Tesla investor relations will comply.
Heck, I am a lowly developer in my company and I have been asked to meet with people from the mutual funds, once in a while. Future is dark for the ICE. They will transition to BEV, with various degrees of pain and successes.
You dont need that many super charging stations. Imagine you have machine that will produce a few drops of gasoline a minute from your gas line. Imagine such a device in every garage. How many gas stations would you need?
In an ICEV every joule comes from gas stations. In BEV universe only 2% of the energy needed to drive comes from super chargers. We need 50 times fewer gas stations. You dont need superchargers as ubiquitos as Wava or Sheetz. There are already 1200 super chargers for the minuscule market share of Teslas. Tesla will build more as it sells more cars. The super charger network is its signature selling point, where it is ahead of competition and it is quite cheap to expand it, if you accept this as a loss leader, a necessary expense to sell cars.
There will never be a network of third party independent chain like gas stations. The revenue stream is minuscule. Every super charging session I had, I paid 3$, 5$ and 7$. I am yet to pay in double digits. Such poor revenue stream and such large cap ex, and so many regulatory hurdles, (Tesla cant sell electricity by kWh, did you know that?) all charge points and electrify america networks are all going to fail.
What will be the total revenue of the charging networks? Gas stations sell 450 billion $ a year. EV is 4 times cheaper. So you are at 112.5 billion revenue potential. Only 2% charge on the road, 98% at home or hotel. Now you are 2.5 billion a year max revenue when you have 100% EV market share. Peanuts, Only a company accepting it as a loss leader will build a network. Tesla. Thought this far ahead.
You have a lower id, and have some decent achievements, 25. So I am not treating you as a troll, but as person who has not been fully informed about this topic. I have treated you with respect. Just read my response and think about it a little, that is all I ask.
Most homes own two cars. Their overnight charging rate is around 3 kW for about 3 hours on average per car [*]. It is like running the A/C at full blast for about six hours per night per home. ALL the homes
Do we have a situation where every home, office, retail stores and factory is running their A/Cs full blast for six long continuous hours?
Yes we do. Every summer afternoon, evening peak load is due to precisely that condition. And the grid can take it. There are fluctuations and spot price of electricity goes crazy, but in general the grid can supply that kind of power.
So we do have the capacity to charge ALL the cars of the country, as long as they do it off peak. They already do, naturally, charging at night. Add a little bit of incentive in the form of off peak prices, we can do it. We will have some spare power left to shred all the stupid studies published by BP, too.
[*] 12000 miles per car per year. 1000 miles a month. 33 miles a day. Some cars might charge 300 miles but others will charge 2 miles and we are talking about the whole country and ALL the cars. So 33 miles a day per car is a good number. EV gives 4 miles per kWh. We need 8+ kWh per car. Charging at 3 kW rate we have between 2 and 3 hours of charging per car per night. Add a very generous margin and call it, 10 hours per night per household at 3 kW. Easy. We have the grid capacity. We have the generation capacity.
Now what would that do to ICE vehicles. They would be even more dead. That is a good thing.
World is buying some 90 million vehicles a year. Tesla is not going to be the monopoly supplier of 90 million vehicles a year. Lots of legacy car makers will switch to BEV with various degrees of reorganization. Some will die, some new ones will enter the market.
Who will have most pain? Companies with very serious ICE R&D technology, knowhow and production facilities. It is not a coincidence Jaguar is the first serious competitor fighting back. It has no ICE technology. Ford bought Jaguar, dismantled its engine R&D division and sold it to Tata of India. It is currently buying engines from outside, and it has a small engine making line somewhere under Land Rover name, I think. So it has less to lose when ICEs are gone.
Porsche, BMW, Honda all have very proud extremely great ICE technology. It is going to be valued like Blockbuster franchise in a decade. Their loss of valuation of ICE tech could be fatal to a few of such companies.
Oh and how many Supercharging stations are there around Wawa, Ontario?
This is what I mean by "people who are very unfamiliar with EV problems issues and solutions".
You dont need need lots of superchargers where you live. ALL your city driving miles will come out of an outlet in your garage. You need superchargers only on longer road trips. You need one supercharger 250 miles from your home in the direction you are traveling. Then super chargers placed about 60 miles apart. Anyway you will be breaking for restroom breaks and food breaks. There are always restrooms near super chargers. There are always fast food take outs. They EV solution is, to peel off the highway at around 250 miles from home, go to the supercharger. If the food choices are not good enough at the supercharger, you stop along the way and take out food of your choice. Put the car on charge, restroom break, eat the food, typically takes 30 minutes. Teslas typically pick up 150 miles in 30 minutes. You have 200 miles on the battery. Up to this point you have not spent any more time on EV than ICE. But have saved 10 to 15 minutes every week in daily driving. Only on the trips where you drove more than 450 miles on a single day you would spend more time on supercharging compared to refueling gas car.
EV miles are four times cheaper than gas miles,
All this is secondary. You can consider it all and still reject it. That is fine, if you do it with all relevant information and your personal situation and taste. But think of how many other people would make that switch to EV. That many people would not be be willing to buy your trade in gas car. You might end up depreciating your gas SUV by 10 or 15 K more than you anticipated. Be prepared for such a scenario in 7 years.
Even the anti Tesla folks who short Tesla say the competition is going to kill Tesla and TSLA is over valued. When they kill Tesla, they would have already totally destroyed resale value of all gasoline cars and SUVs, Remember that.
A car is the second most expensive thing you buy. You owe it to yourself to make sure the car you buy will not have unexpectedly large depreciation over 5 years.
For every Tesla-Killer they have on the drawing board, there are several Tesla-Killer-Killers on the supervisory board.
You bring up a very good point. If it is as easy as they have told you, why haven't they done it?
Very clearly Tesla has more credibility with the people. They lined up to pay the deposit. 80% of them are patiently waiting. Can any legacy car maker boast such faithful customer base? The valuation of TSLA stock is based on that.
Diesel -electric locomotives took over the rail roads in USA in 1950. All of them are electric drive trains. There are pure electric trains/trams/street cars with overhead wires. Traction motor reliability is astounding.
It it interesting with the diesel electric locomotive. All the maintenance stops service the diesel engine. 16 cylinder 4800 HP to 6000 HP behemoths. The traction motors hardly get touched. These engines are not your typical automobile engines that strain in first and second gear. They have run always at constant rpm with optimum load balance all the time.
I have Model3 since May. I have saved 10 minutes every week by not going to the gas stations for the daily city driving.
First 1200 mile round trip: Supercharged on the road for about 50 minutes more than gas station breaks. Second supercharge, a 300 mile round trip, 15 minutes just for peace of mind. Third trip recently, outbound no additional time, just 15 minutes supercharge. Return trip, no destination charger where I stayed, so took 30 minutes more than gas. Total extra 105 minutes on road trip vs saving 520 minutes a year on local driving. I leave home with a 240 miles on the battery every day.
Till they own it they dont know they are believing self serving propaganda from vested interests.
Announce a 15K car in 2025 that runs on Atmospheric Engine, that gets free energy using the magnetic monopole and tapping into the zero point energy and the critical ingredient for the project, the red mercury has been secured. Then you are talking.
Er, what? no one would take such an announcement seriously?
Well, what makes you think they think other announcements and promises from that diesel cheat device innovator seriously?
Definitely it will have a cheat mode.
With over night charging, you need to use fast charge only on long distance travel.
Think about the number of days you have driven more than 300 miles in one day. Then ignore the first fill up of that trip, and count only the remaining fill ups. How many times did you do second or third fillup? You will need on the road charging only for those fill ups.
People who have never owned EV dont get it till they really think about it. In an gas car, every joule of energy turning the wheel came from a gas station. In an env 98% of the joules will come from the outlet in your garage. You charge on the road a few times a year.
Already you can get 120 miles of charge in 15 min, or 200 miles in 40 minutes in a Tesla. It is just a matter of time before we get 300 miles in 15 minutes. At that point the last remaining advantage of fueling time of ICE will vanish.
That was the secret master plan, you idiots, blabbering about it all over the net....
Do you know how much money has been spent in prospecting for Lithium ?
Do you think the known lithium reserves are all the lithium there is in the world?
I see what you have done. Brilliant. Stuck in a "If " at the start of the sentence. Very true.
They have invested in computer graphics division to create press releases. Pretty soon they will start thinking about investing in battery technology.
They are waiting for a breakthrough technology in cheat devices.