Maybe it's time for me to become a field agent for the CIA. I could go get a job at their IT field office and say stuff like, "That Windows 10 update offer? Yeah, I'm going to need you to click the ACCEPT button on that. Yes, I'll hold."
I might have enjoyed a life like that. Until fairly recent in history, we didn't have one employer. We didn't have one skill. We might have worked on a farm, for example, but our employers where those we traded with. We worked for them while, of course, working for ourselves. (Today we trade time and skill for green bits of paper but the trade economy is there, it's just abstracted away.)
We'll return to that with some being small employers and some doing something akin to subsistence farming (which may take little effort). We'll take up tasks in return for goods, bits of paper, credits, what have you. We'll trade more directly and interconnectivity, global communication, will be the the interesting part. Sure, we'll be doing subsistence work but for whom and how?
As an interesting aside; Not long ago, I watched a documentary and then went on a reading binge. There are some who believe we're dumber now than we've ever been. What? Well, we used to have to know how to hunt, kill, skin, preserve, carry, grow, trade, prepare, and provide food while knowing what will or will not kill us. Now, we're specialized where one person grows, one person prepares, etc... They also used farming as a good example to make their point.
Oh, heh... No, I can fund it on my own and get it started. It's time and contacts that I'm lacking. I know lots of applicable people but they're rather entrenched in a different field and seem to be happy there. (Otherwise, they'd have left.) I know some from here. But, I've got at least one very busy year coming up. That's the real kicker. I won't be free to any commitments until this coming November, at the earliest. Funding isn't really much of a problem, I don't imagine.
The companies who are vying for the talent would have to pay enough for the workers to leave current jobs and take that risk. Basically, just some staff and some property would get it started (with overhead). I'd then pay the workers out of pocket until repaid by the company. Some amount of that would have to go to overhead, growing the business, etc... Then I'd get, when that's done, a portion of my investment back until it was all repaid. Then the business could (should) co-op, contractually agree to pay me a portion of profits until I'm fully repaid, and kick me to the curb 'cause I kind of like being retired and I don't want to be the boss.
The beard isn't required but you may, should you want, place into any contracts the right to wear a fake beard while performing your work. My original idea was Neckbeards and someone suggested the change. Any social justice types who wish to seek contract work through them would, of course, be eligible but we're going to need references, examples of prior work, and a probably need to have been effectively sponsored by someone else. A sort of Web of Trust type of deal on top of it should help to keep unqualified people away. Now, if they're (somehow) qualified then they are more than welcome. They can even put the right to wear pink combat gear into their contracts.
If they don't like the name, screw 'em. They'll get over it in a few short weeks.
I've poked at a few of them and I think they required a reboot. They don't make any for Linux - that I know of and own, so I can't really double check that.
It might only have to access it and that can be done through the OS now. It might be possible to piggyback on that, no?
My first AMD was a K6-2 350 that I had OCed to 500 Mhz (a little less) and it was stable but it wouldn't be stable past that unless I put it in a fridge while it was running. I had it sitting in a mini-fridge for a while for my own amusement. Anyhow, maybe they trip automatically now and don't allow it? I could have cooked that thing for sure if I could have just kept it on and doing *something* because it was damned hot when it hit about 550 Mhz. It wouldn't even get into the OS all the way before you could smell it and it would shut off. If I'd kept doing that, over and over, I'm sure I could have cooked it - or if I'd stayed in DOS or something, maybe? (I never tried.)
So, maybe? They've got apps to change BIOS settings from inside the OS. I haven't really done much OCing since those days. Computers just got "fast enough." I'm not even sure why I keep buying new hardware. I don't really seem to see much of a difference in the things that I do. I could probably do just fine on an old dual core system with a few gigs of RAM though my documentaries might not like to play as well. It's not like I'm taxing the CPU when I edit a PHP file and upload it. I even off-load my VMs and connect via VNC.
Hmm... Yeah, I guess I too am sort of returning to the days of the dumb terminal.
I see a few downsides but I've been predicting this for years. It's even turning out a lot like I've expected it to. Well, in part... I guess I should have expected this.
See, I do have one complaint that I think we'll see here like we've seen with Uber. The people who go into this, knowing what it is, will get in and start doing this (knowing full well what the deal is) and then sue to be treated as employees. It's not that I have a problem with labor laws nor do I think we should mistreat employees or contractors - I'm pretty damned clear on how I've treated those who helped me keep my business succeed. But, if you go into something knowingly and accept those conditions knowingly then, it just seems shitty to then try to alter the deal. It's not like the company altered the deal (that I know of). You agreed to the bargain, you're free to leave if you no longer agree.
So, I see this as being a potential issue in the long-term. How many companies are going to want to hire gig workers if they know they're going to get sued? It seems like a pretty crappy thing for them to be doing. They took the gig and knew what it was (or should have) before going in. This isn't, of course, a hard and fast thing and I'm sure there are some abuses to be thought up and situations where they're being treated unfairly because the company wasn't honest.
I never employed freelancers or contractors. I preferred to pay them enough to stay. The closest I came was funding some research but I'm an evil bastard and I hired a couple of the students that did the work. I know, I know... But, in my defense, it was hard to find people who were traffic engineers, programmers, and weren't involved in fleet management or trains. So, yeah, I might have poached a couple of people. For some definition of "a couple of."
That said, I have a novella for this!;-) I'll skip it but someone needs to do the opposite of this. I've talked it over with a few people and I think it'd be brilliant. Imagine, if you will, something called Graybeards Incorporated where basically the employees were all freelance workers, perhaps contractors for longer terms, where you do just the difficult things - where you go in and debug old COBOL that's not been touched or documented in ten years and now has failed and nobody knows why. Except, instead of paying the least, you own the skills and you make the company pay more than fairly because you're saving their asses.
However, the Graybeards would need to be at the top of their game - the best of the best and recognized as such by their peers. They cost a lot and get to put stuff into their contracts like being allowed to wear a cape and mask or even wear their underwear on the outside of their pants if they so want. Like Geek Squad but with actual geeks that know what the hell they're doing and are willing to travel the globe - if the price is right and they can sleep in the executive lounge. However, the Graybeards would have to be not just good but exceptionally skilled.
I actually gave it some consideration. I'm kind of willing to throw a dollar or two at the idea but I have way too much on my plate this coming year. I was thinking along the lines of funding it, getting it started, and then having it as some sort of co-op where my stake can be bought out. With, of course, my taking a reasonable interest on my loan. I'm not that altruistic.;-)
Seriously, someone should do this for you guys that are getting old. Instead of being subjected to ageist prejudices, capitalize on those old things that still require repair and crisis work. The guys who can walk in, view the layout, and see where the security problem is and then fix it... The guys who can, and will, sit in the back room in a bank basement to pour over (or convert) COBOL. The guys that still remember that FORTRAN was good... Those sorts of people but not people looking for employment so much as people looking to get paid because they're gods among mortals and know it.
It's a frequent trait that people have where they see themselves as underprivileged and the fault being because of the more wealthy. What they don't seem to realize is that they are that person to someone else. I don't think this is a recent development. I do think we communicate more. I also think it's the people who complain that speak the most.
The thing is, Grishnakh is usually more sane and logical.:/ It is understandable, it is Friday and the holiday is fast approaching. Really, I am pretty sure that the vast majority of us on Slashdot have far better lives than the average person could ever hope for. Considering that we've power to run computers that we own and time to post on Slashdot, it's quite likely. We've probably even got food and safe shelter.
This is two weeks without a mid-day SJW thread! You're gonna have way too much blood in your alcohol system if Slashdot keeps this up. I, for one, am disappointed.
Humans can signal to one another, even with just unnoticed things like your noticing a driver didn't look before they merged. Humans can, in the emergency situation, break the rules with *their* cars to allow the EMT, Police, and Firetruck through - all in disparate locations and all taking into account the surroundings. You're not gonna get that without mesh networking and, quite likely, centralized control. They're going to need to be able to tell the vehicles to clear the highway. They're going to need to send a signal to these autonomous cars to tall them there's a crisis ahead or you'll get gridlock because there's no egress. You'll get gridlock because there's no ingress at the merge points. This will prevent things like additional emergency vehicles coming through. They can set people up to navigate you around things like that - and they do.
Also, QOS was not the best analogy but it was the closest tech thing that I could think of without trying to make it about memory use which would have been much too long to type. The zip merge is just one thing we can do - we can even have a human there to direct traffic. Traffic is still going to need to be directed. That's going to need a centralized process.
That said, done well - it could be highly efficient, it could be great. I've pondered this at great length and if done well it would actually speed things up and make things safer. I'd be able to get awesome throughput!
As for the sim... Err... You do realize that I wrote the greatest automobile sim game on the planet, right? (I am a wee bit biased.) Well, it didn't have any graphics or anything until after it was taken over by much more competent programmers and then it only had some small segments animated. You can't just toss a bunch of cars into a sim and say drive randomly and expect to have meaningful data come out. You *have* to have some centralized control because people don't (normally) drive randomly. You give them patterns that match real world data. I you give them behavioral characteristics that match real world data. They have to be *fed* that info.
You can then let 'em loose and have some fun if you've got some compute cycles to burn. We even had disaster modes where we had real-world, localized, data to indicate some probables and would throw those into the mix. Oh, it'd be awesome if you could control them from a centralized location. I dare say, again, that I don't think it's gonna work without it.
Let's see if we're saying similar things. When do you predict fully autonomous vehicular traffic will make up the majority of private vehicles on the road in North and South America? When do you think we'll have a nearly complete use of fully autonomous vehicles?
*With* centralized control, I'd give a rough estimate of 15 years for them to be the majority of private vehicles in North America. Without it? I'd not expect to see it for many years to come and I'd not expect to see it within this century as a near complete use. I expect partial autonomy, greater than what we have now, on a march larger scale within 5 years and the average vehicle on the road, in the US, is 11 years old. Full autonomy is a long ways out, I suspect. Well, sooner if we go with centralize processing.
That is, of course, my humble opinion. Also, yes, I am a wee bit biased about my traffic sim game.;-) I kind of miss playing with it. I am no longer privy to the information and, if I was, I'm pretty much covered by an NDA and non-compete for life (the latter won't hold up in court, I'm told, but I've no interest in returning to the field or even working at all) so I couldn't tell you even if I knew but I'd not be surprised if Google were licensing our work *if* they're modeling traffic for their autonomous vehicles and it's fairly safe to assume they are.
At any rate, sorry for the novella but I really don't seem to be able to be as optimistic as you. I do keep up with the trends and news and I'm reasonably aware of current availability for to purchase compute cycles and at what cost those cycles come at. On the other hand, I have been retired for nearly eight years so you could be right - I just don't find your arguments compelling. There is a good chance that I'm missing something but I can't think of it.
( I'm pretty sure you don't have any spare single mode fiber laying about the house, nor the hardware to interface with the carrier hardware )
You must be new here. You'd be surprised what some of us have in our basements. I'd be shocked if nobody here had the appropriate equipment. I know I have a good length of fiber left over that somehow made it all the way to Maine when I moved. I doubt it's any good, it's probably been bent too much to be of any value.
However, I've got like racks in my basement. I have a whole server "closet" that's actually pretty huge. I've even got an inbound call router should I ever want to set up my own dial-up ISP. No, I'd be shocked if *nobody* here had that type of gear in their basement. This is/., you know. We've either got a closet full of kit or a closet full of gimp outfits. Hell, some of us have both.
I find it fascinating to not know something - it means I get to learn something. There's still lots to learn. (I'm a mathematician so, well, I think weird anyways.) I suspect ego is involved with some of these folks. There was a study done about people who believe in conspiracy theories and it pretty much turns out that they generally want to feel superior, special, and wiser. It's probably due to poor self-esteem. My ego is fine. There are tons of things I don't know and never will know. I'll keep trying, though.
They should probably be patient, less greedy, and dumb enough to know that you should watch and learn from other people. I referenced a very specific plan (concerning VW) which you're willing to track if you want. I can look and give a bit more details and let you know when I'll be buying and I can let you know the price at which I'll be selling.
As near as I can tell, most of them are just buying and moving quickly or buying and holding indefinitely. I find something that's trendy or entrenched and buy when they have people bitching about them. I then wait, patiently, and the price goes back up. Nobody ever goes fully out of business (that I have bought) so the results are the ones stated. The first year and a half, or so, I did abysmally.
If you want to play along, watch VW - specifically any time before this summer but longer if I have to wait for them to go to court. If you want, you can ping me on occasion and I'll remember to tell you how it's progressing. I really don't do much more than check their finances and watch to see how trendy they are. I'm also fond of checking to see what name brands people are buying in a store. I don't even know what makes 'em go down a lot of times. I just look at the history, maybe read a report or two (skim, really), and then decide if I'm going to buy and where I'll buy in at. Then, I'm just patient and not greedy.
I am a mathematician and, well, it's hard to explain but I "see" patterns and am somehow pretty good at figuring out odds without even thinking about it. I've been pretty lucky in my life and I think part of that is because I weigh the risks against the potential benefits and then decide. I'm also not greedy so I'll wait. It also helps that I can afford anything that I gamble or I'd not risk it. I never go all in, I just use the profits to buy more. I don't *have* to wait for maximum returns and I don't have to pull the money out for an emergency.
In other words, I don't know what they're doing wrong and the only thing I can think of that I do different is that I see patterns and weigh risks. I don't read many stock reports. I don't read the business news. I don't check them daily (or even weekly). I'm not even sure what all I own unless I go look - instead, I notice when someone says something and then I remember to look.
*shrugs*
I dunno? It's been effective for me. It's actually pretty damned lucrative. I had no idea that you could make this kind of money because I'd never paid attention to it before. If I see a company being mentioned a lot on Slashdot, good or bad, then I'll go take a look. If it's bad and they're a long-term business then I go ahead and think about buying. If they're new *and* they're doing something not too unethical (nobody is perfect) then I might buy them but I prefer a company that's down and out but isn't done fighting.
Even if they just go one more "round" then I'll settle for that little gain though I prefer to hold much longer. I usually hold for at least a year - the tax rate is then capital gains as opposed to income. Man, I screwed up something fierce that first year and a half. Those are *not* pretty numbers. I've only been at it for around 6 years now I think. A little less, actually? Hmm... I'm not entirely sure. Not that long, really.
I've now read a few of their posts. I was entirely unfamiliar with them until you linked me to them. I've got the Wiki page open now. Thanks! What a fascinating individual. Seems to be pretty articulate. Seems to be bright. Hmm...
Seriously, thanks! I'd expound more but they added nicely to my thinking and I'll need to process that and I still have an inbox full of email to contend with.
That's certainly how it should be but I don't think that's how it is understood and believed by the *vast* majority of people, some of whom are also practicing science.
That's akin to saying that the NSA is fair and just. No, they should be but that's not how it plays out in the vast majority of cases. Okay, so that was a horrible analogy. You're not wrong but you're wrong if we're talking about how it is as opposed to how it should be.
One of the things that irks me most is when a scientist is discussing something like string theory in a documentary and repeatedly saying that this is how it is without ever once explaining that, no - it's not how it is. It's is how it *might* be. Then you get people in here who'd have sworn up and down that phlogiston is real (not that many years ago) and opted to simply believed it as truth and wouldn't then see the logical disconnect when when those effects were proven to be caused by other things that made much more sense.
Believing the current state of science, for quite a few fields, is intentionally believing in falsehoods. There's a difference between believing to be true and accepting as the best possible answer. One of which is science, the other is a faith-based belief system not much different than any other major religion.
LOL I think I get it now. So, instead of this being something that, you know, doesn't really much matter it's likely to be a bundle of crap because people are unwilling to pay? I mean, if I were already hosting in a variety of data centers (which I would be, if I were to move stuff "to the cloud") then I'd not care if one fell over - the rest can pick up the slack and that was kind of the point of having multiples.
I am really glad that I'm retired. It sometimes, literally (true sense of the word), makes me cringe when I read about some of the stuff that people go through.
We actually have a few AI researchers here on this site and, if they're to be believed, the answer is no and that it's not even likely to be a step in the right direction. I don't know enough to opine but that's what they have shared on more than one occasion. They seem to be, for the most part, in agreement on this. I believe they use a fairly strict definition of the phrase, however.
Slashdot Mirror
I dunno... If you put your hand in my pocket and fish around a bit then you will probably find some nuts.
He was expecting curry and got pemmican. That's probably a letdown. (Some of the family still eats that stuff. I am not a fan.)
Maybe it's time for me to become a field agent for the CIA. I could go get a job at their IT field office and say stuff like, "That Windows 10 update offer? Yeah, I'm going to need you to click the ACCEPT button on that. Yes, I'll hold."
I might have enjoyed a life like that. Until fairly recent in history, we didn't have one employer. We didn't have one skill. We might have worked on a farm, for example, but our employers where those we traded with. We worked for them while, of course, working for ourselves. (Today we trade time and skill for green bits of paper but the trade economy is there, it's just abstracted away.)
We'll return to that with some being small employers and some doing something akin to subsistence farming (which may take little effort). We'll take up tasks in return for goods, bits of paper, credits, what have you. We'll trade more directly and interconnectivity, global communication, will be the the interesting part. Sure, we'll be doing subsistence work but for whom and how?
As an interesting aside; Not long ago, I watched a documentary and then went on a reading binge. There are some who believe we're dumber now than we've ever been. What? Well, we used to have to know how to hunt, kill, skin, preserve, carry, grow, trade, prepare, and provide food while knowing what will or will not kill us. Now, we're specialized where one person grows, one person prepares, etc... They also used farming as a good example to make their point.
Oh, heh... No, I can fund it on my own and get it started. It's time and contacts that I'm lacking. I know lots of applicable people but they're rather entrenched in a different field and seem to be happy there. (Otherwise, they'd have left.) I know some from here. But, I've got at least one very busy year coming up. That's the real kicker. I won't be free to any commitments until this coming November, at the earliest. Funding isn't really much of a problem, I don't imagine.
The companies who are vying for the talent would have to pay enough for the workers to leave current jobs and take that risk. Basically, just some staff and some property would get it started (with overhead). I'd then pay the workers out of pocket until repaid by the company. Some amount of that would have to go to overhead, growing the business, etc... Then I'd get, when that's done, a portion of my investment back until it was all repaid. Then the business could (should) co-op, contractually agree to pay me a portion of profits until I'm fully repaid, and kick me to the curb 'cause I kind of like being retired and I don't want to be the boss.
The beard isn't required but you may, should you want, place into any contracts the right to wear a fake beard while performing your work. My original idea was Neckbeards and someone suggested the change. Any social justice types who wish to seek contract work through them would, of course, be eligible but we're going to need references, examples of prior work, and a probably need to have been effectively sponsored by someone else. A sort of Web of Trust type of deal on top of it should help to keep unqualified people away. Now, if they're (somehow) qualified then they are more than welcome. They can even put the right to wear pink combat gear into their contracts.
If they don't like the name, screw 'em. They'll get over it in a few short weeks.
I've poked at a few of them and I think they required a reboot. They don't make any for Linux - that I know of and own, so I can't really double check that.
It might only have to access it and that can be done through the OS now. It might be possible to piggyback on that, no?
My first AMD was a K6-2 350 that I had OCed to 500 Mhz (a little less) and it was stable but it wouldn't be stable past that unless I put it in a fridge while it was running. I had it sitting in a mini-fridge for a while for my own amusement. Anyhow, maybe they trip automatically now and don't allow it? I could have cooked that thing for sure if I could have just kept it on and doing *something* because it was damned hot when it hit about 550 Mhz. It wouldn't even get into the OS all the way before you could smell it and it would shut off. If I'd kept doing that, over and over, I'm sure I could have cooked it - or if I'd stayed in DOS or something, maybe? (I never tried.)
So, maybe? They've got apps to change BIOS settings from inside the OS. I haven't really done much OCing since those days. Computers just got "fast enough." I'm not even sure why I keep buying new hardware. I don't really seem to see much of a difference in the things that I do. I could probably do just fine on an old dual core system with a few gigs of RAM though my documentaries might not like to play as well. It's not like I'm taxing the CPU when I edit a PHP file and upload it. I even off-load my VMs and connect via VNC.
Hmm... Yeah, I guess I too am sort of returning to the days of the dumb terminal.
That brings new meaning to, "Old man yells at clouds." He was probably yelling 'cause they took his job!
I see a few downsides but I've been predicting this for years. It's even turning out a lot like I've expected it to. Well, in part... I guess I should have expected this.
See, I do have one complaint that I think we'll see here like we've seen with Uber. The people who go into this, knowing what it is, will get in and start doing this (knowing full well what the deal is) and then sue to be treated as employees. It's not that I have a problem with labor laws nor do I think we should mistreat employees or contractors - I'm pretty damned clear on how I've treated those who helped me keep my business succeed. But, if you go into something knowingly and accept those conditions knowingly then, it just seems shitty to then try to alter the deal. It's not like the company altered the deal (that I know of). You agreed to the bargain, you're free to leave if you no longer agree.
So, I see this as being a potential issue in the long-term. How many companies are going to want to hire gig workers if they know they're going to get sued? It seems like a pretty crappy thing for them to be doing. They took the gig and knew what it was (or should have) before going in. This isn't, of course, a hard and fast thing and I'm sure there are some abuses to be thought up and situations where they're being treated unfairly because the company wasn't honest.
I never employed freelancers or contractors. I preferred to pay them enough to stay. The closest I came was funding some research but I'm an evil bastard and I hired a couple of the students that did the work. I know, I know... But, in my defense, it was hard to find people who were traffic engineers, programmers, and weren't involved in fleet management or trains. So, yeah, I might have poached a couple of people. For some definition of "a couple of."
That's a long ways away on a fixie.
That said, I have a novella for this! ;-) I'll skip it but someone needs to do the opposite of this. I've talked it over with a few people and I think it'd be brilliant. Imagine, if you will, something called Graybeards Incorporated where basically the employees were all freelance workers, perhaps contractors for longer terms, where you do just the difficult things - where you go in and debug old COBOL that's not been touched or documented in ten years and now has failed and nobody knows why. Except, instead of paying the least, you own the skills and you make the company pay more than fairly because you're saving their asses.
However, the Graybeards would need to be at the top of their game - the best of the best and recognized as such by their peers. They cost a lot and get to put stuff into their contracts like being allowed to wear a cape and mask or even wear their underwear on the outside of their pants if they so want. Like Geek Squad but with actual geeks that know what the hell they're doing and are willing to travel the globe - if the price is right and they can sleep in the executive lounge. However, the Graybeards would have to be not just good but exceptionally skilled.
I actually gave it some consideration. I'm kind of willing to throw a dollar or two at the idea but I have way too much on my plate this coming year. I was thinking along the lines of funding it, getting it started, and then having it as some sort of co-op where my stake can be bought out. With, of course, my taking a reasonable interest on my loan. I'm not that altruistic. ;-)
Seriously, someone should do this for you guys that are getting old. Instead of being subjected to ageist prejudices, capitalize on those old things that still require repair and crisis work. The guys who can walk in, view the layout, and see where the security problem is and then fix it... The guys who can, and will, sit in the back room in a bank basement to pour over (or convert) COBOL. The guys that still remember that FORTRAN was good... Those sorts of people but not people looking for employment so much as people looking to get paid because they're gods among mortals and know it.
Ah well... That's the non-novella version.
Now you're just going off on a tangent!
It's a frequent trait that people have where they see themselves as underprivileged and the fault being because of the more wealthy. What they don't seem to realize is that they are that person to someone else. I don't think this is a recent development. I do think we communicate more. I also think it's the people who complain that speak the most.
The thing is, Grishnakh is usually more sane and logical. :/ It is understandable, it is Friday and the holiday is fast approaching. Really, I am pretty sure that the vast majority of us on Slashdot have far better lives than the average person could ever hope for. Considering that we've power to run computers that we own and time to post on Slashdot, it's quite likely. We've probably even got food and safe shelter.
This is two weeks without a mid-day SJW thread! You're gonna have way too much blood in your alcohol system if Slashdot keeps this up. I, for one, am disappointed.
Well, that's rational.
Humans can signal to one another, even with just unnoticed things like your noticing a driver didn't look before they merged. Humans can, in the emergency situation, break the rules with *their* cars to allow the EMT, Police, and Firetruck through - all in disparate locations and all taking into account the surroundings. You're not gonna get that without mesh networking and, quite likely, centralized control. They're going to need to be able to tell the vehicles to clear the highway. They're going to need to send a signal to these autonomous cars to tall them there's a crisis ahead or you'll get gridlock because there's no egress. You'll get gridlock because there's no ingress at the merge points. This will prevent things like additional emergency vehicles coming through. They can set people up to navigate you around things like that - and they do.
Also, QOS was not the best analogy but it was the closest tech thing that I could think of without trying to make it about memory use which would have been much too long to type. The zip merge is just one thing we can do - we can even have a human there to direct traffic. Traffic is still going to need to be directed. That's going to need a centralized process.
That said, done well - it could be highly efficient, it could be great. I've pondered this at great length and if done well it would actually speed things up and make things safer. I'd be able to get awesome throughput!
As for the sim... Err... You do realize that I wrote the greatest automobile sim game on the planet, right? (I am a wee bit biased.) Well, it didn't have any graphics or anything until after it was taken over by much more competent programmers and then it only had some small segments animated. You can't just toss a bunch of cars into a sim and say drive randomly and expect to have meaningful data come out. You *have* to have some centralized control because people don't (normally) drive randomly. You give them patterns that match real world data. I you give them behavioral characteristics that match real world data. They have to be *fed* that info.
You can then let 'em loose and have some fun if you've got some compute cycles to burn. We even had disaster modes where we had real-world, localized, data to indicate some probables and would throw those into the mix. Oh, it'd be awesome if you could control them from a centralized location. I dare say, again, that I don't think it's gonna work without it.
Let's see if we're saying similar things. When do you predict fully autonomous vehicular traffic will make up the majority of private vehicles on the road in North and South America? When do you think we'll have a nearly complete use of fully autonomous vehicles?
*With* centralized control, I'd give a rough estimate of 15 years for them to be the majority of private vehicles in North America. Without it? I'd not expect to see it for many years to come and I'd not expect to see it within this century as a near complete use. I expect partial autonomy, greater than what we have now, on a march larger scale within 5 years and the average vehicle on the road, in the US, is 11 years old. Full autonomy is a long ways out, I suspect. Well, sooner if we go with centralize processing.
That is, of course, my humble opinion. Also, yes, I am a wee bit biased about my traffic sim game. ;-) I kind of miss playing with it. I am no longer privy to the information and, if I was, I'm pretty much covered by an NDA and non-compete for life (the latter won't hold up in court, I'm told, but I've no interest in returning to the field or even working at all) so I couldn't tell you even if I knew but I'd not be surprised if Google were licensing our work *if* they're modeling traffic for their autonomous vehicles and it's fairly safe to assume they are.
At any rate, sorry for the novella but I really don't seem to be able to be as optimistic as you. I do keep up with the trends and news and I'm reasonably aware of current availability for to purchase compute cycles and at what cost those cycles come at. On the other hand, I have been retired for nearly eight years so you could be right - I just don't find your arguments compelling. There is a good chance that I'm missing something but I can't think of it.
Damn it. I clicked it and, obviously, read it. That's okay, I smoked a joint about a half hour ago. I'll probably forget. ;-)
( I'm pretty sure you don't have any spare single mode fiber laying about the house, nor the hardware to interface with the carrier hardware )
You must be new here. You'd be surprised what some of us have in our basements. I'd be shocked if nobody here had the appropriate equipment. I know I have a good length of fiber left over that somehow made it all the way to Maine when I moved. I doubt it's any good, it's probably been bent too much to be of any value.
However, I've got like racks in my basement. I have a whole server "closet" that's actually pretty huge. I've even got an inbound call router should I ever want to set up my own dial-up ISP. No, I'd be shocked if *nobody* here had that type of gear in their basement. This is /., you know. We've either got a closet full of kit or a closet full of gimp outfits. Hell, some of us have both.
I find it fascinating to not know something - it means I get to learn something. There's still lots to learn. (I'm a mathematician so, well, I think weird anyways.) I suspect ego is involved with some of these folks. There was a study done about people who believe in conspiracy theories and it pretty much turns out that they generally want to feel superior, special, and wiser. It's probably due to poor self-esteem. My ego is fine. There are tons of things I don't know and never will know. I'll keep trying, though.
They should probably be patient, less greedy, and dumb enough to know that you should watch and learn from other people. I referenced a very specific plan (concerning VW) which you're willing to track if you want. I can look and give a bit more details and let you know when I'll be buying and I can let you know the price at which I'll be selling.
As near as I can tell, most of them are just buying and moving quickly or buying and holding indefinitely. I find something that's trendy or entrenched and buy when they have people bitching about them. I then wait, patiently, and the price goes back up. Nobody ever goes fully out of business (that I have bought) so the results are the ones stated. The first year and a half, or so, I did abysmally.
If you want to play along, watch VW - specifically any time before this summer but longer if I have to wait for them to go to court. If you want, you can ping me on occasion and I'll remember to tell you how it's progressing. I really don't do much more than check their finances and watch to see how trendy they are. I'm also fond of checking to see what name brands people are buying in a store. I don't even know what makes 'em go down a lot of times. I just look at the history, maybe read a report or two (skim, really), and then decide if I'm going to buy and where I'll buy in at. Then, I'm just patient and not greedy.
I am a mathematician and, well, it's hard to explain but I "see" patterns and am somehow pretty good at figuring out odds without even thinking about it. I've been pretty lucky in my life and I think part of that is because I weigh the risks against the potential benefits and then decide. I'm also not greedy so I'll wait. It also helps that I can afford anything that I gamble or I'd not risk it. I never go all in, I just use the profits to buy more. I don't *have* to wait for maximum returns and I don't have to pull the money out for an emergency.
In other words, I don't know what they're doing wrong and the only thing I can think of that I do different is that I see patterns and weigh risks. I don't read many stock reports. I don't read the business news. I don't check them daily (or even weekly). I'm not even sure what all I own unless I go look - instead, I notice when someone says something and then I remember to look.
*shrugs*
I dunno? It's been effective for me. It's actually pretty damned lucrative. I had no idea that you could make this kind of money because I'd never paid attention to it before. If I see a company being mentioned a lot on Slashdot, good or bad, then I'll go take a look. If it's bad and they're a long-term business then I go ahead and think about buying. If they're new *and* they're doing something not too unethical (nobody is perfect) then I might buy them but I prefer a company that's down and out but isn't done fighting.
Even if they just go one more "round" then I'll settle for that little gain though I prefer to hold much longer. I usually hold for at least a year - the tax rate is then capital gains as opposed to income. Man, I screwed up something fierce that first year and a half. Those are *not* pretty numbers. I've only been at it for around 6 years now I think. A little less, actually? Hmm... I'm not entirely sure. Not that long, really.
I've now read a few of their posts. I was entirely unfamiliar with them until you linked me to them. I've got the Wiki page open now. Thanks! What a fascinating individual. Seems to be pretty articulate. Seems to be bright. Hmm...
Seriously, thanks! I'd expound more but they added nicely to my thinking and I'll need to process that and I still have an inbox full of email to contend with.
That's certainly how it should be but I don't think that's how it is understood and believed by the *vast* majority of people, some of whom are also practicing science.
That's akin to saying that the NSA is fair and just. No, they should be but that's not how it plays out in the vast majority of cases. Okay, so that was a horrible analogy. You're not wrong but you're wrong if we're talking about how it is as opposed to how it should be.
One of the things that irks me most is when a scientist is discussing something like string theory in a documentary and repeatedly saying that this is how it is without ever once explaining that, no - it's not how it is. It's is how it *might* be. Then you get people in here who'd have sworn up and down that phlogiston is real (not that many years ago) and opted to simply believed it as truth and wouldn't then see the logical disconnect when when those effects were proven to be caused by other things that made much more sense.
Believing the current state of science, for quite a few fields, is intentionally believing in falsehoods. There's a difference between believing to be true and accepting as the best possible answer. One of which is science, the other is a faith-based belief system not much different than any other major religion.
I am inclined to agree with everything you said and point out that I, too, am not a physicist. I don't even play one on television.
LOL I think I get it now. So, instead of this being something that, you know, doesn't really much matter it's likely to be a bundle of crap because people are unwilling to pay? I mean, if I were already hosting in a variety of data centers (which I would be, if I were to move stuff "to the cloud") then I'd not care if one fell over - the rest can pick up the slack and that was kind of the point of having multiples.
I am really glad that I'm retired. It sometimes, literally (true sense of the word), makes me cringe when I read about some of the stuff that people go through.
We actually have a few AI researchers here on this site and, if they're to be believed, the answer is no and that it's not even likely to be a step in the right direction. I don't know enough to opine but that's what they have shared on more than one occasion. They seem to be, for the most part, in agreement on this. I believe they use a fairly strict definition of the phrase, however.