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  1. Re:This ain't the first time ... on Is the Era of Groundbreaking Science Over? · · Score: 1

    It didn't take Einstein.

    There was a already a deep, apparently insoluble contradiction in physics -- the ultraviolet catastrophe. Blackbody radiation - a commonplace thing in everyday life - could not be explained by physics (quantum theory would be required). That should have been enough by itself to put claims of the "completeness of physics" to rest.

    It didn't since just one glaring anomaly can be dismissed.

    And then radioactivity was discovered. Vast amounts of energy appearing from nowhere. That caused the notion that physics was nearly complete to collapse.

  2. Can Anyone Link to the Actual Proposal? on FCC Proposal Would Cover the US With Public Wi-Fi · · Score: 1

    As far as I can tell the only information available on this is what Cecilia Kang at the Washington Post says about it. Absolutely everything else seems to be simply a rewrite of her article. Given the track record of any popular media reporting on technical issues it is hard to tell for sure what the proposal actually entails.

    This being a non-classified Government proposal circulating freely among businesses, it should be readily available to the public somewhere.

  3. Re:Cue the on FCC Proposal Would Cover the US With Public Wi-Fi · · Score: 1

    Absolutely. Not only does the government, businesses, employers, health care providers, schools, etc. automatically assume you have Internet access - and make their plans for interacting with you accordingly, but they are already generally assuming you have high speed Internet access AND mobile phone Internet access also.

    Not having Internet access is much like not having access to a telephone 25 years ago - you basically cannot function in society effectively.

  4. Re:Saturation on Missile Defense's Real Enemy: Math · · Score: 1

    ... With directional antennas, it is much harder to jam them in the air, as you can filter out any signals at a little above the drone's altitude and below. So, you'd have to be ABOVE the drone to jam GPS signals. This limits the available platforms to electronic warfare aircraft, but with a movable directional antenna, even these signals could be filtered out without much difficulty....

    Wow. You have decided that electronic warfare doesn't really work at all, since an incredibly weak signal (10^-16 watts per square meter) can be detected against a 200 watt jammer directly overhead "without much difficulty". Electronic warfare experts everywhere will be amazed. The U.S. Navy only has the best electronic warfare planes in the world.

    First off GPS antennas detect signals from satellites in different parts of the sky - they are non-directional (or else have a very small gain since they don't need to look down). Second, the jamming signal strength will be on the order of 100 billion times stronger than the GPS signal. Only a gain of 110 db will overcome this jamming signal, and the highest gain antenna in the world in the 305m Arecibo radiotelescope with a gain of only 70 db.

    This also means that the supposed telecomm link to the army of controllers via satellite (must be geosynch to stay in position for hours) cannot be maintained. A high gain antenna would work here, but a 60 cm satellite dish only has a gain of about 35 db, meaning the jamming signal will be 10 to 100 million times stronger.

    10,000 drones churn around completely unguided whenever they come within miles of the ships, while any that blunder into an intercept trajectory get blasted with 100% success rate. Number of drones hitting ships: zero.

    Satisfied?

  5. Re:Idiots can't do math, so they think math says n on Missile Defense's Real Enemy: Math · · Score: 1

    Because it defends a $2 trillion US carrier group.

    $20 billion. The maths are important.

  6. Re:Odd discussion on Missile Defense's Real Enemy: Math · · Score: 1

    ... What it all comes down to then is, how far is the US willing to push China, and risk a carrier battle group? The missile raises the stakes of pushing China; doesn't mean we wouldn't win in the long run, but the cost is now a lot higher and therefore changes are diplomatic calculus towards China.

    ...

    But you are missing the real value of the defense system. The chances of China really committing an act of war against the U.S. (firing on an aircraft carrier) is very, very slim. Their missile capability is a rhetorical or psychological threat, to gain the upper hand in diplomatic or geopolitical situations. U.S. defensive weapons neutralize that leverage. The U.S. simply asserts that the Chinese attack would fail and the only way China can prove that it would succeed and is not a "paper tiger" is to begin a shooting war.

  7. Re:Saturation on Missile Defense's Real Enemy: Math · · Score: 1

    You aren't appreciating just how good modern defensive armaments really are, and how hard it is to destroy an aircraft carrier. And you are overestimating what a really cheap drone can do.

    Lets look at the drone. If you want several thousand of them (lets say 4000) "cheaply" then you are spending, what?, $1.1 billion on an equivalent of a $275,000 plane - like a Cessna 172. Cruise speed 140 mph - this is only 4 times faster the ships; its never exceed speed is 188 MPH, total load (including fuel) 750 lb. There are cheaper cars that drive faster. And that $1.1 billion is not exactly chickenfeed.

    In the slow crawl out to engage the fleet (3 hours to hit it 420 miles out) the fleet can relocate 100 miles. Makes a dense coordinated attack impossible even if you can track the fleet in real time.

    The Phalanx CIWS (Close In Weapon System) that every U.S. combat ship carries is designed to shoot down missiles up to 10 times faster with a much smaller profile with high reliability. The Phalanx success against "soft ball" targets such as you propose is essentially perfect. A carrier strike group deploys at least 8 of these on four ships that can provide mutual support and together can engage 40 targets a minute indefinitely or 200 targets all at once. Of course if this threat was known to exist, they can double up on supporting combat ships if needed for additional Phalanxes, perhaps to double this engagement capacity. And then there is that air wing that can surge enough fire power during this period to engage roughly 1000 targets.

    So the air wing gets to thin out any close clumps of targets far out from the fleet so that the CIWS crews can watch their system clean up the rest. Since there is enough time for up 25 CIWS engagements for each target (more if the ships are staggered) there is no chance that even one would reach a ship.

    And then there is the ability for the group to lay down a smoke curtain - an ancient tactic. It still works against cameras, but not against the radar-guided defensive weapons.

    An accident on the USS Forrestal during the Vietnam War led to nine bombs exploding on-board, the ship returned to service nine months later. The current Nimitz Class aircraft carrier is two-thirds larger and even harder to sink.

    This proposal is not unusual to hear from people unfamiliar with the effort put into defending ships.

  8. Re:Cost per watt on Swiss Federal Lab Claims New World Record For Solar Cell Efficiency · · Score: 1

    ... Even if we figure out how to make solar cells out of newspaper .. the cost of battery/storage for overnight will keep it's cost above that of coal.....

    Red herring. Widespread use of solar power does not require any batteries anywhere. It does not need to simulate the behavior of base load plants or replace them (nuclear plants are the ideal base load plant). Solar power is produced during the highest demand period, when electricity production costs are highest (due to peaking plants coming online). Modern combined cycle natural gas plants can vary their output by 50% or so, and can shutdown/startup in half an hour. Many hydro plants can throttle power as well. These will be major parts of any national power grid for a long time and can provide any load balancing needed.

    The current trendline brings PV down to the price of coal in just 5 years or so.

    Renewable energy nay-sayers on /. seem quite out of touch from what is happening in the world of power production. In about 10 years wind power will surpass hydropower in production, and about two years after that so will solar power. At that point some 40% of the world's entire electricity production will be from these 3 sources, with renewable all together about half of the total.

  9. Re:"continue to search for and find other deposits on Rare Earth Elements Found In Jamaican Mud · · Score: 3, Informative

    Uhm why not just put the Thorium back into the mine, where it came from?

    That is often impossible in an active mine, and in a strip mining situation there is no "mine" to put it into.

    By its nature mining takes solid consolidated rock in which nasty materials are locked up (which is why they are there to be found in concentrated form) and turns it into powder from which is now easily leached or transported by water and wind. It is possible to find ways to secure the tails, but that costs money and drives up prices (making the product less competitive) or cuts into profits, both of which mining companies hate. Only strict outside (usually government) oversight keeps mining companies from turning most every mine site into a leaky, ugly toxic waste dump.

  10. Re:Rare Earths on Rare Earth Elements Found In Jamaican Mud · · Score: 2

    the interests that control the USG are against the development of thorium-cycle reactors. And the USG will kill people to see to it that thorium-cycle reactors aren't available on a commercial scale anytime soon.

    Which is why the U.S. is active in the international Generation IV reactor research effort, that includes thorium powered designs?
    http://www.gen-4.org/
    http://www.gen-4.org/Technology/systems/msr.htm

  11. Re:Rare Earths on Rare Earth Elements Found In Jamaican Mud · · Score: 1

    Since there is virtually no market for thorium at present (world trade figures are in the single digit tons), and none for the foreseeable future, it is a waste product that must be dealt with.

  12. Re:Kuhn is not everything on Does All of Science Really Move In 'Paradigm Shifts'? · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Personally, I value the popperian hypothesis-falsification paradigm a lot, especially since it fits so nicely with classical statistical hypothesis testing, and I insist on teaching it to students (I am a biologist), but I am well aware of its limitations.

    Popper has been very influential since he provides a clear prescriptive model on how to do science, with a well defended philosophical basis.

    The problem is that it does not describe very well how science has actually progressed, in the past or the present. You can argue that there is a sub rosa Popperian process unfolding, but science has rarely advanced by applying an explicit Popperian reasoning and experimental approach.

    Kuhn was revolutionary in emphasizing the social process of scientific discovery.

  13. Re:I see the problem on Does All of Science Really Move In 'Paradigm Shifts'? · · Score: 2

    (And as a biologist, I feel pretty strongly that paradigm shifting applies equally to physics and biology.)

    Indeed. One of the striking things about modern science is the how rapidly the biological sciences are advancing - and how quickly fundamentally new understandings about how biological systems have been appearing. From genetics to genomics, we have within the lifetime of one of the original discovers of the structure of DNA (James Watson) gone through several vast shifts in understanding of how DNA works, and what the DNA record shows about the tree of life.

    The new kingdoms of life, dramatic changes in understanding of how evolution proceeds, successive revolutions in understanding DNA (multiple levels of regulation still being discovered, the profound importance of inaccurately named "junk" DNA, etc. etc.). The emergence of new paradigms is obscured perhaps by how many there are and how quickly one follows another.

  14. Re:Uruguay Fiber Optic Plan on Israel To Get Massive Countrywide Optical Upgrade · · Score: 2

    Here in the US we're going to see a 3rd world status in regards to networking by the end of our lifetimes (that is if it's not already that way yet).

    No, we are not. People and companies willing to pay for top-quality networking have access to it.

    You left of "willing and ABLE to pay". So as long as the rich can get top-quality networking the U.S. is golden? The U.S. is 19th in the world in broadband penetration, and 19th in the world in broadband speed. Can a nation compete economically when it is far behind in the core infrastructure of the 21st Century?

    The expectation that rural areas should get equal connectivity at the same cost as urban areas will always keep the average service below the average service in other countries that are willing to pay what it costs.

    How dare rural people expect electricity at affordable prices, decent roads like city-folk, mail service, and broadband? Who do the think they are? Real Americans? You would think they were citizens of what claims to be the greatest nation on Earth or something!

    Oddly enough those rural people are in deep red state territory, vote heavily Republican, yet the people seem concerned whether they get access to 21st Century technology are those Marxist America-hating Progressives.

    And actually U.S. broadband penetration is so poor (22%) most city-dwellers can't get it.

  15. Re:Censored: "secondary market" on Defending the First Sale Doctrine · · Score: 2

    Citation please? I have never seen any credible source blaming real estate taxes for bursting the bubble, much less pretending that the bubble would otherwise have lasted forever. Bubbles burst because they are unsustainable and they always burst.

    In a two year period the price of land in Japan increased 650% (1986-1988). See: http://housingjapan.com/2011/11/10/a-history-of-tokyo-real-estate-prices/

    This sort of insane asset value inflation cannot be sustained. The appreciation in real estate amounted to something like $10 trillion (U.S.), then five times Japan's GDP, and almost equal to the GDP of the entire world.

    Sorry, taxes are not the root to all evil, and the cause of all ills in the world.

  16. Re:Difficult to understand? on Perl Turns 25 · · Score: 1

    Perl is a multi-paradigm language. It doesn't bundle or insist on a particular model - you are free to use whatever model you want.

    And herein lies the problem - program maintenance, which is normally counted as 80% of the cost of software life cycle.

    Any language that prides itself on having lots of ways of doing any task or operation, and has many programming models to choose from means that when maintaining legacy code, you must asymptotically approach learning all the ways of doing everything, and all the paradigms, often mixed together, because the vanished legions of programmers that came before are the programming equivalent of a million monkeys.

    Context dependent interpretation of the meaning of operators combined with operator over-loading creates tremendous problems with reading code others of written with any certainty of correct understanding.

    Far too much attention is paid to aspects of tools that making the fun, easier part of programming (writing new code) more fun and easier, while making the long pole in the tent, maintenance, longer and heavier.

    The truth is we must deal with middle of the road to lowest denominator programmers and their work constantly, and defenses of languages that they are easily understood when written by gurus (and read by other gurus) is really an indictment not a defense.

    I've done a fair amount of APL and Perl programming, rather liked them when writing with them, but am under no illusion that they tend toward comprehensibility or maintainability.

  17. Re:Does not really matter on Strong Climate Change Opinions Are Self-Reinforcing · · Score: 1

    Free market principles are not at all environmentally friendly - there was no move among capitalists to clean up the air, or the water, stop use of environmentally toxic pesticides, eliminate toxic waste dumps, preserve old-growth forest ecosystems, etc., etc., etc. Not until government regulations forced them to change their practices.

    Did unregulated capitalism produce good economic outcomes?

    For the individual capitalism yes, but the external costs imposed on everyone else was an economic (and health) disaster.

  18. Re:Social Proof on Strong Climate Change Opinions Are Self-Reinforcing · · Score: 1

    Upon reading this thread it is YOU who brought up Hitler "Local Idiot" - so you Godwinned yourself.

  19. Re:seems like a downgrade on New Small Fission Reactor For Deep-space Missions Demonstrated · · Score: 1

    Would be perfect for an advanced hybrid vehicle using all-electric drive. The combustion engine is there just to keep the battery pack charged, a 30 second warm-up (for a 3 minute warm-up for that matter) would be fine.

  20. Re:Why would that be the first step? on Carl Sagan Was On US Team To Nuke the Moon · · Score: 1

    Reagan did not win the cold war, he negotiated a peaceful end to it...

    Fair point. (Unlike the other bullshit responses squawking that he had nothing to do with it.) And he couldn't have done it without Thatcher, or John Paul, or probably Walesa.

    Even I, no fan of Reagan, agree that this is a reasonably fair statement (though it gives short shrift to GHW Bush who actually negotiated its final end). But the "bullshit responses" were just overstatement refutations to the original bullshit claim that Reagan and SDI defeated the Soviet Union.

  21. Re:Why would that be the first step? on Carl Sagan Was On US Team To Nuke the Moon · · Score: 1

    Yes, but so far, Obama has beat them all in terms of increasing the debt in only 4 years....gonna be interesting to see him set the bar even HIGHER in the next four....

    Well, lets see. The last year Bush was in office (Jan. 20, 2008 to Jan. 19 2009) he packed on $1.435 trillion dollars in debt due to the colossal economic crash he presided over. This was the first trillion dollar deficit in U.S. history, and even after the adjusting for inflation, was by far the largest deficit in U.S. history up to that time (twice the peak deficit of WWII), and he left office with the U.S running regular monthly deficits in excess of $200 billion.

    Currently the monthly deficit (from Oct. 31 to today) is just $45.2 billion (check the link below to verify this for yourself), so I'm guessing that without another similar huge deficit assist from the Republicans like he got from Bush, the answer is "no".

    Check out how the debt was incurred on a day by day basis: http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np. The closer you examine how the deficit exploded under Bush, and how it turned around under Obama, the worse the Republican record looks.

    NB: since there is an unavoidable lag between any action or policy a President takes or proposes and its effect on the Federal budget or economy it is not reasonable to attribute economic performance and deficits for any newly seated President for some period of time after they take office, the duration of this period is up for debate, but this is an indisputable fact. I am willing, just for the sake of this one post to play the unserious political charade of pretending Obama "caused" the deficit incurred on Jan. 20, 2008 - the day he took office. In fact of course the Bush Crash underlies all of the very high (but steadily improving) deficits we have seen, just as the Hoover Depression under-laid the poor (but improving) economic performance for the remainder of the 1930s. Every month you shift the "window of responsibility" forward from Inauguration Day, the worse Bush looks and the better Obama looks.

  22. Re:Cuts on USPS Reports $15.9 Billion Loss, Asks Congress For Help · · Score: 1

    ...While I think the USPS pension requirement is being absurdly handled, the spirit of the law is reasonable enough...

    If this "feel good" legislation Republican style? I'm sorry. Absurd and obviously harmful laws do not get a "reasonable spirit" exemption. A bad law is a bad law and should be repealed.

  23. Re:not quite on USPS Reports $15.9 Billion Loss, Asks Congress For Help · · Score: 1

    His point is that the absence of a reliable postal system in Africa makes one appreciate the benefit of having one here.

  24. Re:More than the Bikini Atoll tests? on Fukushima Ocean Radiation Won't Quit · · Score: 5, Informative

    The lead-in sentence is certainly incorrect in its current, broad brush form. Immediately after a nuclear explosion the decay of short lived isotopes creates levels of radioactivity astronomically higher than a leaking civilian power plant. But those short lived isotopes rapidly disappear. Eventually you just have long-lived isotopes with half-lives of decades or longer.

    Nuclear power reactors burn-up an astonishing large amount of fuel. The biggest fission yield of any nuclear test was no more than 15 megatons, which is the energy equivalent of 880 gigawatt-days (thermal) of nuclear reactor operation. Fukushima Da-ichi produced 29,891 gigawatt-days of power a year, a number 35 times larger. The amount of long-lived radioactivity (i.e. what you have left after several weeks) in Fukushima far exceeded any nuclear weapon.

  25. Re:Good for him on All of Nate Silver's State-Level Polling Predictions Proved True · · Score: 1

    Quantizing at the individual vote level would lead to complete ignorance of the rural vote (not a horrible thing in my opinion, but undesirable to many states currently) in favor of large urban centers - candidate who wins most biggest cities wins presidency.

    This claim is trotted out every time election by popular vote is discusses but it is not true in any close election (like all recent elections). If the popular vote is closely split, then every vote counts equally where ever it is located, and campaigns have incentive to go after them.