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Domain: nistep.go.jp
Stories and comments across the archive that link to nistep.go.jp.
Comments · 7
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Re:This has been an issue for quite awhile.I don't usually bother replying to nonsense, but weenies confusing self-loathing with sophistication just really gets up my nose.
Do they have any reputable universities ?
Ummm, well, yes. Only problem is that they teach in Japanese - so they can't really be teaching anything important, could they?
Ummm, well, universities in Japan do have courses taught in English. Only problem is that they generally suck. Of the world top 20 universities, 13 are from US and none are from Japan.
Do they have cutting edge biotech, nano or healthcare facilities ?
Don't you keep up with tech news?
If you did, you will realize US leads the world (linked PDF is in Japanese but you being such a cosmopolitan I'm sure you won't have a problem with it).
Do they walked on the moon or have significant space presence ?
Well, yes actually, they do have quite a significant space presence.
Are you seriously suggesting JAXA is somehow on par with NASA? If presence of Wikipedia article makes it true: Bangladesh has a significant space presence.
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Re:I've always wonderedHm, you may be interested in this: Predicting mid-range global futures (2005-2050).
In particular, it talks about the Delphi method, and shows how Japan predicted, in the 1970's:- Possibility to a certain degree of working at home through the use of TV-telephones, telefaxes, etc. (forecast: 1998)
- Acquisition of observation data from unmanned probes around Uranus, Neptune, Pluto and outside the solar system. (1999)
- Development of optical communication technology that can realize substantial savings in the use of copper. (1999)
- Possibility of external fertilization or artificial womb. (2001)
- Widespread use of heart transplant from human being by resolving problems such as transplant immunity, rejection and donor. (2001)
- Practical use of rapid-transit railway using iron rail and iron wheel, which can run at 300 km/h. (2006)
- Development of artificial ear. (2007)
They were rated at 64-71% accurate, which is not bad, considering that you're jumping out 30 years into the future, and making specific and useful predictions.
This is much better than psychic's prediction, unless the psychic happened to have an article on Moore's Law hidden beneath the table.
While there are a lot of well-reported predictions that are basically bunk, and even though the public has fixated on images that make no sense, there are also sources that are doing their homework, and are actually well researched. It's sad that the good stuff goes unreported.
All this said, even near-term futures are very exciting and interested, and people simply don't know about what's happening. I've personally worn a NOMAD headset, for example. Anyone can have one, for $2,000. These devices are certain to get cheaper, and will be in color, within 5 years. They're great devices, and I personally think that they'll be as common as bluetooth headsets are now. Bluetooth headsets will get cheaper, and become much more useful, as wireless networks expand, (as they are sure to,) and Internet access becomes much more pervasive.
The "Camp" phenomenon happening right now is exploding. Investments in communications and intelligence technology is leading to this sort of thing, and the work of these sorts of things is further compounded into more communications and intelligence technology, and the spread of the technology.
Another poster here rightly said it: Even if predictions turn out false, they are still extremely useful. In many cases, we predict so we can make sure that they turn out false. To ensure that they come out false. Every single human being makes predictions about the course of their life, so that they can steer themselves in one direction, or to avoid another. It would be very surprising to me if human societies did not engage in this activity. (This is scenario planning, and used by just about every corporation and government.)
Technology prediction in some ways is the easiest thing to predict, looking into mid-range futures (the hardest territory.) If you put your money on Moore's Law, you're doing far better than (say) betting on baseball games, or who wins the presidency. -
Re:There was a story when I worked at MicrosoftCorporations have their place in history, let us hope they are relegated there post haste. The question that must be answered beforehand is what to replace it with? Many social theories like anarchosyndicalism might work in a society where the means of production had been reduced to the point where centralized factories became obsolete. In such a technological age people of similiar talents would work together democratically to determine the course of work in their fields, be they sanitation engineers or rocket scientists the ability to manipulate mass and space remotely through production in robotic factories and work crews would see 'best of breed' solutions being adapted in a perpetually revolutionary manner.
The concentration of wealth and power since the inception of public corporations has seen trully unremarkable individuals profit from the work of wage slaves and karoshi scientists. I think that so long as a society we have more executives than engineers we will suffer. Look how pathetic we look when we compare our scientist and engineer population with Japan. I have become bitter from living in America and do not consider myself an American because of the general decreptitude of Society here. Being almost done with a Robotics degree I have many nations willing to take me as a citizen. If you are in the field you know one of the major projects will be the research and development leading up to the fielding of a robotic military force from ground to air to space. I will not give my talent to such an ethically perverse nation as the "USA".
The prototypical consumer that was created through advertising and apathy is a monster we as engineers, designers and programmers cannot hide from at the liability of our professional status. Our job is to make life easier through intellectual and imho ethical rigor. The only solutions is to be found through the ability within our expertise to sate the most abject desires without engaging in any form of dehumanization like slavery or war. The responsibility for world peace is not a political or social question but very much a technological one. The world needs a 'New Deal'.
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Re:30 years too early, according to Moore's Law
Mind your language. It's very counterproductive to say that [much of the] brain is still a black box [effectively]. People pick this up and turn a blind eye towards the progress that was made in recent decade(s).
It's much better to say that much of the brain is still understood poorly. Or that at the expected rate of development it will take at least 25 years to fully understand how the brain works. This way people have a better view on reality than when they are told "brain is still a mystery".
BTW, according to NISTEP's latest report, "Elucidation of brain mechanisms for logical reasoning" will happen by 2028. -
Re:Meh.
Japanese have 65-70% success rate in their 30-year NISTEP predictions. That's technology foresight. Futurology, as practiced by BT and Ian Pearson himself is not exactly quakery, but it isn't anything particularly good or useful either. It just so happens that the thinkers that actually understand where we are heading are transhumanist thinkers such as Vernor Vinge, Ray Kurzweil, Max More, Nick Bostrom and the like. The futurologists are only gradually waking up to the ideas that were obvious to others at least a decade ago.
It is possible to predict the future. You start with the basics (laws of nature), add some understanding of our development speed (in many areas you can predict it quite easily) and then build models that make sense. Of course, you need to learn to be rational, otherwise your predictions will end up as nonsensical as what you just wrote. -
Re:Are they making an error ?20 years? You are out of your mind, fella.
From Japan's NISTEP report (2001).
- 2008 - Widespread use of systems which facilitate
multimedia communication from anywhere in the
world using pocketbook-size portable terminals.
- 2009 - Realization of an environment in which the unlimited utilization of high-capacity networks (150 Mbps) for around 2,000 yen/month or less is possible.
- 2012 - Practical use of card-size wireless communication
instruments capable of changing specifications, such
as center frequencies, band width, modulation
method, and error correction method, by software
operations.
- 2013 - Widespread use of a portable multimedia wireless
terminal operating at about 100 Mbps which can be used throughout the world.
- 2014 - Widespread use of 10 Gbps optical subscriber
systems in homes.
- 2016 - Practical use of optical communication systems
capable of transmitting signals through multiplexed
1,000 channels at 100 Gbps over a single optical
fiber.
- 2008 - Widespread use of systems which facilitate
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Re:Actually...
In 1970 Japan ran their first technology foresight exercise. Several thousands of scientists, engineers and experts participated in a two-round Delphi study. The study attempted to predict the scientific and technological developments in the next 30 years. It led to the huge R&D push in the fields of 5th-generation computers, artificial intelligence and robotics.
For the curious, Japan runs its foresight projects every 5 years, so you can learn about technology that Japan will have in 2030 here. The reports are pretty damn accurate, with at least 80% of predicted developments coming to fruition.
The next country to introduce regular foresight exercises was, of course the Soviet Union, which started them in 1971. With more than 4% of the GDP spent on scientific research (higher than USA, Japan or any other country), it was at the forefront of the scientific and technological races.
The United States, however, mostly used such exercises in the military. Air Force, Navy and the Army used them to foresee, which technologies to kill people will be available in the future, and invest in them. The government and American corporations were largely uninterested in the foresight results. Consequently, corporations are largely preoccupied with short-term, although it is gradually changing because of the breathtaking pace of progress. Noone can ignore it anymore, not even American corporations.