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And what did Android look like in January 2007 when the iPhone was announced? I dunno, but I found photos from January 2008.

No, what I'm saying is use an appropriate analogy.

And I did. Good thing for us we're in agreement on that.

And the iPhone won't matter in a few years.

Right, because Android is totally setting the trend here. Every Android device before the iPhone came along was already a multi-touch phone with a 3-4" screen and soft keyboards, right?

Whether or not Apple "keeps up" with other players in the phone market over the next few years, the iPhone set a bar for smart phones which every manufacturer is now rushing to meet or better. Competition is inevitable - Apple is minting money off the thing, and now everybody wants a piece of that pie - competition is good because it will force Apple (and the other device manufacturers) to continue improving these devices.

The hardware isn't any better than anyone else's any more (ook at the multi-touch virtual/swipe keypad on the droid x).

So you go from saying that "iPhone is being smoked by Android devices like the EVO and Droid X" to "everybody else has now caught up to Apple." Which is it? If they're behind, why would anybody need to catch up? The simple fact that other manufacturers feel they have to "catch up to" or "beat" the iPhone is a pretty good indicator that it's a credible contender in the smart phone space, regardless of it's suitability for YOUR particular needs.

One droid X can replace 1 iPhone + 1 iPad.

1 iPhone can replace 1 iPhone + 1 iPad, too. In fact, you can run most of the software you'd put on your iPad on your iPhone as well. Why does this matter, exactly, to the notion of the iPhone being a serious contender in the smart phone space? All this really says is that either device "could" serve the same purpose as an iPad, if the extra screen space of the iPad is irrelevant for your requirements.

I read that it's largely due to the fact that the Japanese like to watch tv on their phones, and they're really into texting, which the lack of a tactile keyboard makes more slower. And so phones TV capability with full keyboards do much better than the iPhone with its total lack of keyboard and apparently an inability to double as a TV.

According to Wired, the Japanese prefer the Panasonic Panasonic P905i.

The Japanese phone of choice, the Panasonic P905i, would be a tough sell in the US. Sure, a big screen and TV tuner are nice features, but it's big and ugly. Americans spend their time in their cars and homes, surrounded by televisions. A handheld TV may be useful in Japan, but I doubt many people in the US would waste their time uploading videos to their phone. The iPhone has a thin case, simple interface, and applications Americans want on the go (email, web, youtube, etc). Surprise, people in Japan and the US have different preferences.

You're telling me that in 2006 and 2007 that the same people who would buy an iPod went out and bought WinMo and Treos?

http://www.phonemag.com/smartphone-sales-up-60-in-2007-iphone-captures-growing-market-share-02860.php

In 2007 when the iPhone was only available for half a year and only in the US, it was the number 2 handset!

taking 27% of the new phones sold in the US

Wrong

The iphone took about 2.5% (you were off by an order of magnitude). Don't get me wrong, this figure is very impressive for a new entry to the mobile market, but falsely inflating figures just makes you look stupid.

Or perhaps you don't know the difference between 'phone' & 'smartphone'?

I'd rather have a Sony Ericsson Xperia X1

http://www.phonemag.com/xperia-x1-vs-iphone-spend-now-or-save-02943.php

Looks about the same size as an iPhone but it has a foldout qwerty keyboard and HSDPA. It has Wifi too. Oh and unlike the iPhone it has microSDHC slot which allows for cards upto 32GB, though only 8GB cards currently exist. Still 8GB is a lot of music or media files. And they only cost about US$50. I can use WinamPAQ on the X1.

The display is much higher resolution than an iPhone too, 800*480 instead of 320*480.

Safari works ok on my iPod touch, so I think Opera on an X1 would be quite usable. And with a flat rate HSDPA Sim I could use it anywhere, not just in places that have Wifi. Skype works on Windows Mobile too, so I can use it as a VOIP phone. It has a camera and a light too, both key features. And I can use it as an bluetooth HSDPA modem with a laptop. All in a package smaller than the iPod touch.

It's also interesting that the buying focus doesn't appear to creating new products for sale, but on strategic purchases to fight off competitors.

In response to Google's release of Android, Microsoft have just bought Danger inc. Now, there's no doubt Windows Mobile is unrelable and clunky, and could use significant improvement, but it looks like there's more to the acquisition than having Danger contribute to WM7. The guy who kicked off Android also started Danger, so perhaps Microsoft is trying to acquire any of his early IP which might be useful as a lever against Google if they're successful with Android.

nokia's tell you what to do!