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Is There Anyone Left To Buy PCs?
Gilligan writes: "This article on MSNBC talks about how slowing PC sales might be the result of the industry reaching its saturation point. One expert even suggested there will be zero growth of PC sales within two years." This reminds me of the famous prediction by IBM that the entire world would only need 10 computers. The article does not address worldwide trends, only American -- maybe PC sales really are near their peak here, but most people all over the world have never even touched a computer, never mind owned one, because everyday needs take priority.
hi all (george here)
well this is real disturbing. part of the problem is that a lot of the people who COULD use computers CAN'T because they don't have any juice (electricity) to run them on. but i look at africa and i see a HUGE untapped market because there are lots of people there but no computers. but see they CAN'T run computer's because they don't have electricity. this is why i believe that the united states should invest heavily in bringing electricity to africa. now don't say that you don't want your tax payer dollars going there, we could have private companies like COMPAQ foot most of the bill, after all they will get all that money back when tribes purchase presarios to track grain usage and other such tribal things.
but this whole computer thing is a REAL PROBLEM. i was watching fox news channel with my wife the other day and this man from the kato institute said that micro soft would go out of business in eight years if electricity was not brought to africa. and since africans generally dont fly kites i don't think they will discover it like ben franklin did (he got hit by lightning.) so we need to BRING it THERE. seriously if average africans got computers they're economy would be much better, and they could afford more food. we know that lots of computers gives a very good economy, look at us in america, we have the best economy ever. in the HISTORY of the planet. so if sally struthers wants to make the problem worse, let her, but we can do much better.
so let's have COMPAQ and IBM and DELL wire africa for electricity, it will be much better, and our high-tech companies won't go bankrupt, that would be bad since many 401 k programs invest in high tech companies and i (george) want to buy a boat when i retire.
-gbd
Who needs the latest GHz PC for this?
The slump in PC sales is a result of hardware performance getting waaaay ahead of software demand... at least for the basic stuff. Yes, I know the Quake freaks will shell out for a new system every 3 months if it gets them one extra FPS, but these are very few. Besides, if you're a Dad and don't want the kids monopolizing your PC with games, what better way than to have an od P133 with 16MB on your desktop? It serves you, not the gamerz d00dz. Heh heh heh. And runs (non-X) Linux just fine.
What a concept. Things that actually matter being given priority over having the next mobile portable wireless e-commerce-enabled global pocket-sized buzzword-integrating dot-com-partner-program-patented iGadget. If not for the despotism, lack of natural resources, and CIA interventions, the third world nations would have passed us up long ago while we were too busy hyping the latest useless product to even take notice.
IBM claimed there was a need for about 10 computers in the world. I've come to realize that they were right. What IBM forgot to take into account is the number of products you can sell to people who don't need them. In the case of the hype-saturated computer industry, that number is huge and constitutes essentially 100% of the business.
As long as there are stupid people, the peecee industry will continue to roll. Ain't no end in sight from where I stand.
The author of the article is NOT talking about SALES of computer going to 0. He is saying that PC SALES GROWTH may goto 0 in 2 years...
Doesn't ANYONE read the damn articles before they post????
What do they do? When the need or desire isn't there, they CREATE the need or desire. So the market is saturated? So what? The only difference is that instead of giving people what they already know that they want or need, you'll have to start convincing them that they need something that they actually don't.
This has been done for CENTURIES by salespeople. It's being done today in radio and TV ads (among other places). Growth in sales of items only stops in one of two conditions as far as I can tell:
#2 is never the case. And we know that #1 isn't the case either.
-- Truth goes out the door when rumor comes innuendo. -- Groucho Marx
The ultimate computer-telecom revolution will be interactive video access to communications, entertainment and computing everywhere. Whether this is manifested as a computer screen in every room, office, & vehicle, portable video-com devices (ala Earth Final Conflict), or some combination of the two is unknown. There is still a considerable of computing, broadband, and software necessary to be developed.
Humans are basically visual and audio creatures. The current text-still graphics computer interfaces and audio communications devices are substandard.
Having been on the consumer end of the home-pc market for a long time.. I can say...
know how we've always mentioned, when new, faster boxes come out, that part of the reason we need them is becuase the software is getting more bloated? That's been happening at a faster and faster rate as well.
We're at the point where my few year old Cerelon 300A/450 still does me *fine*, and I'm a computer geek. Sure... A PIII is faster.. but for what.. some games? Because that's about it. Sure.. if I was doing renders or other compute intensive tasks, I would want a faster machine... but really. Now they talk P-IV? Gimme a break.
Oh.. and on the business side of things.
Sure, I have a cad guy who wouldn't mind a faster machine.. and some programmers that like instant compiles, but for the most part, nobody *needs* anything faster than the PII/PIII they have now. It will be a couple years before we buy new computers, unless they are application specific boxes, like servers.
Are you saying that everyday needs do not include downloading porn and refreshing slashdot? I don't think so.
--
RumorsDaily
What The World Really Needs is a $250 firewall box that runs Linux
This reminds me of something. I was at the First Saturday sidewalk sale in Dallas the previous weekend and two guys approached me trying to peddle their firewall system which would *gasp* allow me to run more than one computer off my high speed internet connection. For a very brief moment I was amazed by such a possibility, until I remembered that I was already doing this.
But wait, THEIR firewall might be far superiour to mine, so I should probably review their product before dismissing it outright. Reading over the single sheet brochure they provided me, the first thing I noticed was that it would support up to 10 computers. This was the first hurdle. I informed them that I am currently running 12 computers on my network, so their product would limit me in that regard.
But no fear, they told me that it would most likely handle more than 10 computers on a network, but the average consumer never used that many on a home network, so it didn't make sense to test it for more than that. Well, I suppose he had a point, except that the "average consumer" usually doesn't do their computer shopping at parking lots in downtown Dallas at 1 in the morning from people who are selling used computer equipment off the back of their trucks. But I digress.
So I questioned further, in case there were features which I hadn't discovered yet that I absolutely needed. I asked how many internet ip addresses I could get. 1
ONE
Not 16 like I have now, but ONE. I ran some figures through my head, trying to figure out how I could run all my servers off of a single ip address. Ah HA. the solution, its so simple. IPCHAINS supports port forwarding. No problem. But wait. Problem. Their firewall doesn't. Well, it might, but the ever vigilant salesmen weren't aware of that feature.
At this point I was really grasping for straws, trying to find any reason why I should just dismiss them like AOL'ers who were trying to convince a guy with a T3 that he should switch to AOL with a dialup because its a better internet. No, I don't have a T3, I was just attempting to be funny. Feel free not to laugh, I don't care.
Ok. I thought proudly of my linux box at home with its two network cards that does everything and then some that their box does. Cost me $30 my box did, and that included both PCI network cards. But here's the kicker. I had to put my system together myself. I had to install the operating system. I had to configure ipfwadm (still using 2.0.35) ALL BY MYSELF WITH NO HELP FROM ANYONE (unless you consider reading man pages and howto's to be help).
They, however, install the product FOR YOU, so you don't have to do it. I'm sure they charge a fair price for the trouble, however, I didn't ask. I might have laughed too loudly, and milk might have come out of my nose, and that would just be too embarrasing.
Ok.. Just in an attempt to stay on topic... I was referring to the price of the firewall. It wouldn't need to cost $250 unless it was EXTREMELY tiny and didn't use a standard MB. I suppose that would be worth something, but I don't personally find space to be much of an issue.
-Restil
Play with my webcams and lights here
There's a difference between sales growth and profit growth. If you sell 1000 units in both 1999 and 2000, but make a $10k profit in 1999 and $20k profit in 2000, have you grown?
Nor are these companies stupid. Gateway, Compaq, and Dell are all getting into different markets, because they *know* that sales growth of PCs will start to plateau. They've been selling PCs for nearly 20 years. They've grown enough where they can start to look into new markets (CPQ buys Digital, Dell gets into the server market, Gateway gets into the netapps).
While PC sales growth may not increase, don't think the companies are going to go under overnight, or that their stock prices will fall.
-- Ever notice that fast-burning fuse looks exactly the same as slow-burning fuse? I didn't... (Edgar Montrose)
Why would the CIA interveen where there are no natural reaources? Are you calling us stupid?
I'd also like to share some of the credit with others who deserve it. Our former mentors at M.I. 5 and 6, our rivals from the KGB, and some of the newer boys on the block from Cuba, Isreal, South Africa, and lots of other home grown tallent have helped out out all along. While most of these newer groups have concentrated their efforts on domestic affairs, some like Cuba have really shone bright. Think of where the world would be without nearly limitless quantities of cheap Soviet made weapons like the AK-47, munitions and landmines quality made to last for decades. Recognizing the accomplishments of these groups is a matter of profesional pride.
As for that 10 computer quip, do you have any idea how many machines Carnivore alone will take? While it's true that you do not need a computer, we need many. You obviously have no idea of what it takes to run a competent government, but that's OK. Just keep paying your taxes. The less you want the more we can take.
Agent X, masked as twitter for the sake of anonymity.
Friends don't help friends install M$ junk.
Sure. And why are you not using a C64 anymore? People get used to the luxuries and start to regard them as necessities. Try to tell you typical Joe Doe computer user to use a text-terminal based editor for his letters, instead of M$ Word. Pay good attential to the look of total incredulity on his/her face. That't exactly the same look you will receive in 10 years if you suggest that a mouse and 1024x768 X screen are perfectly sufficient to get the work done and people don't need VR sets and speech recognition.
The illegal we do immediately. The unconstitutional takes a little longer.
--Henry Kissinger
Are we going to stop buying cars too? We all know a personal computer is not an end-all investment. Of course, we could all go around surfing the web in our '78 Chevy Malibus if we want to. :D
Slowing down, eventually stopping *growing*.
Although the article is trying to paint a picture of doom and gloom with comments like "No one was shopping for a new computer.",it is actually talking about the growth rate. No where did it mention a reduction in the numbers of computers being sold, rather a lower amount of an increase in the numbers of computer being sold.
Last time I recall seeing the stat's on computer ownership in the USA (which was a month or three ago) it was at around one fifth of the population, approximately 50mil people. Where do the writers of this article come up with the idea that "...the majority of households own personal computers..."? Then again, 50.1% is a majority so I guess it all depends on your interpretation.
-- David Smith
C:\ is the root of all evil
The dominant society's media continue to spew the illusion that everyone -- from the broker to the villager -- is going to make their fortune on the web. But, of course, the Wall Street broker was making money well-before the web became reality, and a Lakota villager is still poor even after a century of "benefiting" from Western technology.
In "Indian Country", I've seen the federal government bring computers into Native American schools. Those same schools lack the electricity to run the computers; the toilets don't flush, and the teacher know nothing about the hardware or software. While the media spews images of broadband access, the kids in those schools are still trying to get the toilet in their house connected to a sewer!
Under the current socio-economic system, there exists a definite limit on how many computers can be sold -- a limit set by the number of people who can actually benefit from the technology.
All about me
As an American, I feel obligated to go out and buy everything that my neighbors have.
..
So far, I own
5 SUVs, 3 hondas (Riced-Out), 10 computers (all Compaq, Acer, and Packard Bell), 2 bags of grass, 75 pellets of mescaline, 5 sheets of high-powered blotter acid, , a salt shaker half-full of cocaine and a whole galaxy of multicolored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers... also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether, and two dozen amyls... oh wait
--
you are not what you own
it's a sig, wtf?
My guess is that the supersaturation point has shifted but the curves remain roughly the same. The presumption of infinite geometric growth is central to most financial planning.
As one friend of mine most sucinctly put it:
"Capitalism is the world's largest pyramid scheme"
`ø,,ø`ø,,ø!
Free Software: Like love, it grows best when given away.
But the point is that the market can't grow forever. Even if everybody in the US buys a new computer every year for the rest of their lives, that's zero growth after the first year. It's common sense, of course, that the market can't grow forever. Yet the stock prices for all of these companies were based on the assumption that they would continue to grow for a bazillion years. Which is why Timothy's comment isn't really appropriate. No one is saying that no one else needs a computer. They're saying no one else is buying a computer in the countries these companies operate in.
While yes this is an issue (most people having PCs) -- I believe that (in my experience working in tech-sales and service both) most people will want to purchase more computers as new technologies come out -- people are simply slowing down waiting for more...
on the other hand, how far away are we from people having enough processing power to not want/need to upgrade anymore?
bemis
"dude -- what the fuck does LIL- mean again?!?"
How many times do we have to snicker at some IBM execs quote about the computers that is almost 60 years old. Think about it, IBM didn't say this in '79, but back in the 40's where no one here could even recognize a '40s computer if it fell on their head.
If you think this is funny, try some futurists's sites, you'll fall over in laughter. Or check out what Arthur C. Clarke has written in the past 5 years about the future.