Is There Anyone Left To Buy PCs?

Gilligan writes: "This article on MSNBC talks about how slowing PC sales might be the result of the industry reaching its saturation point. One expert even suggested there will be zero growth of PC sales within two years." This reminds me of the famous prediction by IBM that the entire world would only need 10 computers. The article does not address worldwide trends, only American -- maybe PC sales really are near their peak here, but most people all over the world have never even touched a computer, never mind owned one, because everyday needs take priority.

Comments

America

[vbrtrmn]

As an American, I feel obligated to go out and buy everything that my neighbors have.

So far, I own ..
5 SUVs, 3 hondas (Riced-Out), 10 computers (all Compaq, Acer, and Packard Bell), 2 bags of grass, 75 pellets of mescaline, 5 sheets of high-powered blotter acid, , a salt shaker half-full of cocaine and a whole galaxy of multicolored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers... also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether, and two dozen amyls... oh wait

--
you are not what you own

We've fallen off of the growth curve?

[Stephen Samuel]

Many years ago (mid~late 80's) I remember being at a meeting of CIPS (Canadian Info Processing Society) where the luncheon speaker mentioned that most business analysts do minimal sanity checking on their growth predictions. To support his contention he mentioned that, if you followed the curve out, North American computer sales would exceed population by about 2001.

My guess is that the supersaturation point has shifted but the curves remain roughly the same. The presumption of infinite geometric growth is central to most financial planning.

As one friend of mine most sucinctly put it:
"Capitalism is the world's largest pyramid scheme"
`ø,,ø`ø,,ø!

Re:I don't see ...

[Fizgig]

But the point is that the market can't grow forever. Even if everybody in the US buys a new computer every year for the rest of their lives, that's zero growth after the first year. It's common sense, of course, that the market can't grow forever. Yet the stock prices for all of these companies were based on the assumption that they would continue to grow for a bazillion years. Which is why Timothy's comment isn't really appropriate. No one is saying that no one else needs a computer. They're saying no one else is buying a computer in the countries these companies operate in.

I don't see ...

[bemis]

While yes this is an issue (most people having PCs) -- I believe that (in my experience working in tech-sales and service both) most people will want to purchase more computers as new technologies come out -- people are simply slowing down waiting for more...

on the other hand, how far away are we from people having enough processing power to not want/need to upgrade anymore?

bemis
"dude -- what the fuck does LIL- mean again?!?"

Sick of IBM quote

[gad_zuki!]

How many times do we have to snicker at some IBM execs quote about the computers that is almost 60 years old. Think about it, IBM didn't say this in '79, but back in the 40's where no one here could even recognize a '40s computer if it fell on their head.

If you think this is funny, try some futurists's sites, you'll fall over in laughter. Or check out what Arthur C. Clarke has written in the past 5 years about the future.

Re:Sick of IBM quote

[MrBogus]

What's funny about people snicker at the quote is that they draw totally the wrong conclusion from it:

IBM actually thought a world market of 10 computers was quite a few -- enough to warrant a major investment into the computer business.

Re:we need to wire africa for electricity

[Throw Away Account]

Go ahead, wire Africa. I dare you.

Per capita GDP in Rwanda is $720. That means the scrap value of the copper in that wire is worth the effort to steal. How long do you think it will stay wired?