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Mario's Revenge?
Cringely's column this week covers the console industry - he predicts that Mario will rise from the dead to pummel both the hedgehog and the bandicoot.
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He makes a great point. It doesn't really matter how good your hardware is, if you don't have a good set of well known games to run on your console people won't buy it.
Atari figured this out in the early 80's, which is why despite the fact that their 2600 machine was terrible compared to its competition at the time, it was wildly successful. They had some of the best-known games on the market - Space Invaders, then Asteroids (easy since they owned that), then Pac Man, and even Donkey Kong (Mario again!). And even though Atari's Pac Man was horrible, they had an exclusive licence for it so if you wanted to play a Pac-Man-like game at home you pretty much had to buy a 2600. They enforced their licence really aggressively, I remember when they sued Magnavox and made them recall the KC Munchkin game for the Odyssey/VideoPac. KC was a far, far better game, and ran on a much better platform, but what Atari couldn't beat with better silicon it beat with better lawyers.
If you ask me, the video game crash of 1983-1986 pretty much served them right.
Might I be the first to note that you are an imbecile? In a console war, a developer is not a winner; their rewards are reaped in a manner completely different from those of the console makers. Granted, I agree that Sega will make a goodly profit from their developing, but it is now impossible for them to be a winner in the console war.
I guess the original poster was redefining the terms, yes -- just as Sega have redefined their terms by opting out of the hardware market....
Certainly, when I bought my Playstation, I wasn't opting into to a Sony world a gaming: I was seduced by the "Dream Ticket" of Namco and Sony together. My choice was Tekken 2 vs Virtua Fighter 2 -- Sega (the software developer) vs Namco (the software developer) not Sega (the hardware developer) vs Sony.
So, while not helping to predict which console will win the forthcoming sales war, the original poster made a worthwhile point about how software companies are in a great position, as long as they don't go signing any exclusivity deals... With Dreamcast as their sole platform, Sega were onto a loser. Now, I don't see how they can lose.
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I respectfully disagree. :-)
The most important thing is that both Nintendo and Microsoft have low-cost development kits available for Gamecube and Xbox respectively. This will quickly speed product development, and already the demos we've seen of Gamecube and Xbox games are nothing short of breathtaking.
Already, several game publishers have found out to their chagrin that programming for PlayStation 2 has proved to be just as tough going as programming for the old Sega Saturn.
The real unknown factor is what platforms Sega's software teams will support in the long run. There are a few games already in development for PS2, but Sega also plans to write games for Nintendo's Gamecube and Game Boy Advance and Microsoft's Xbox, too. Given that Sega's internal programming teams are probably better than Nintendo's own internal programming teams, Sega could ironically have a hand in determining what will become the dominant next-generation console gaming platform.
Raymond in Mountain View, CA
Psst--there's a lot more to videogames than just Squaresoft. ^_^
Remember, Microsoft has gotten companies like Namco, Konami, Koei, HudsonSoft, and other Japanese developers to write games for Xbox. And Microsoft smartly allied themselves with the Bandai organization to distribute Xbox in Japan; Bandai is a highly-respected entertainment name in that country.
Raymond in Mountain View, CA
Criterion's DVDs are *not* the best means of testing a DVD player.
:-)
a) They're poorly manufactured
b) It's usually not the player that's bad, it's the initial transfer.
That said, I tested the Gundam Wing: Endless Waltz DVD on a Sony 530D (early model), and a 560D (last year's model), as well as the PS2. Component output versus composite notwithstanding, the video just looked choppy on the PS2. I wouldn't say it was unwatchable, but anime is not the PS2's strong suit with the DVD software. The higher contrast (of a white Gundam in the blackness of space, for example) makes these flaws more obvious than, say, The Matrix or other action movies.
That said, if I needed a DVD player I can take to a friend's house, the PS2 is it. It's simple enough to hook up, and offers gaming capabilities to boot. Not to mention, it's also capable of playing all the PSX games, which damn near everyone has. I wouldn't consider it the greatest console out there (I still use my Dreamcast more often), but there are certainly some good games for it, and once FFX is out, then my investment will finally prove its worthiness
Raptor
Raptor
"Procrastination is great. It gives me a lot more time to do things that I'm never going to do."
Because Nintendo doesn't care about its old standby, Mario anymore. Nintendo's biggest problem is that it has become a company which will seemingly only cater to the execessively young, and when the GameCube comes out, I'll bet 10-1 the game it ships with won't be any Mario game, but a Pokemon game.
:-)
The crucial mistake here is that Nintendo doesn't understand that while it can lead the pack with the Gameboy, its because the Gameboy costs $50-70 and parents won't have a problem buying it and the 10,000 Pokemon games that float around for it. Consoles, especially these days, need to be aimed a little higher towards teenagers & young adults, because they cost so much. A parent isn't going to buy a $300 game system and pay another $300 on all the Pokemon games, especially when they can't enjoy it at all themselves.
Nintendo is going to die a horrible death when it discovers its biggest franchise go out of style in about 9 months, and then all the money spent on special edition Gameboys, games, and addonpacks that do nothing but feature Pokemon colors and characters. And I will look forward to it.
The ball is in Microsoft's court, unfortunately. If MS can pull off a system that is better looking and most importantly better playing than the Playstation2, then the X-box has a chance. Perhaps Sony will pull something nice from under its hat with some really good must-have games...but for now, the console market languishes. The rest of us will just wait patiently for Doom3.
-Julius X
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I'm going to have to disagree with you. I've owned a PS2 since launch, and for a year or two before that I had a number of difefrent DVD players (mostly Toshiba). After I bought the PS2 I gave away my standalone DVD player to a family member so I could really evaluate how well the PS2 worked as a DVD player.
I'll admit that the PS2 DVD player software is annoying to use, and lacks features that other DVD players might have (like zoom or 30x FF that I used to have). However, I've not had a problem with it playing any DVD's yet, and I'm pretty sure I've used a number of dual layer discs. I have the Criterion Collection 7th Samuri DVD that you mention in another post, I'll have to try the later half of the movie and see if I have similar problems.
I have to say though is that the PS2's curse could also be it's salvation - the PS2 DVD software has the POTENTIAL to be quite amazing, mostly because it's all in software and the controls could be mapped to anything. You could have smooth variable zooming while playing in slow motion. You could have bookmarks in DVD's saved to the memory card or future HD. You could do things that no other DVD player on the market could do. On the other hand, I've seen no promises that anything that innovative is even in the pipeline (personally I think the Sony DVD player division is holding them down) so the point is probably a bit silly.
One thing I reccomend people try when watching DVD's is to reset the PS2 after you insert the DVD. For me that seems to help, since I started that simple procedure I've never had a problem with a DVD in the PS2. It makes sense when you think about it from a software perspective, that at that point the DVD player software pretty much always initializes successfully whereas just popping in a DVD after playing a game or using the browser might not leave the PS2 in the "perfect" state for the player software.
I'll also say for the record, that the PS2 is still the only DVD player I have and I've not thought much about getting a standalone model again. I think for most people, it's a decent enough player that it can server as the only DVD player in the house. I'm pretty finicky myself when it comes to video stuff, and even though the software is not that great the quality of playback and audio is quite good. It supports just about anything you'd ever want in an AV standard from a DVD player, and if they'd ever build a VGA adaptor you'd have a DVD player that could do what almost no other DVD player could do.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
This is small stuff, but big business, and the only sure thing right now is that Sony, the industry leader, is in trouble.
... but even they might have trouble).
The article doesn't really explain why this guy thinks the new Gamecube will do so well.
If it's purely those breath-taking graphics he speaks of, that's hardly a factor anymore.
In the end, the visiual differences between a Gamecube, a Playstation 2, and an X-Box will almost certainly be hard to determine by most poeple (yeah, die-hard gamers may know what to look for
I agree that the Playstation 2 IS in trouble; but Sony is very foolishly pissing off their third parties...
However, until the Game Cube and X-Box make a real showing it's hard to tell if there will even be a clear winner.
Some people say the video game market is setting it's self up for a serious crash. How can we be sure that they won't all do poorly?
As I've mentioned many times in the past, my guess is that the Gamecube will dominate followed by the X-Box, but it's still too early to write any of these three systems off as "doomed" yet. Not even Sony's monster. Sony has money, they aren't going anywhere.
"Everything you know is wrong. (And stupid.)"
"Everything you know is wrong. (And stupid.)"
Moderation Totals: Wrong=2, Stupid=3, Total=5.
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That article was a cool mini-history of the past 15 years of the gaming world, but it didn't much live up to its title. Sony won its seat as top dog by making game development easy and by promoting PS1 games. With PS2, "the emphasis was on the platform, not the titles." Also, according to Robert, game companies are losing money. My questions:
- Is emphasizing the platform really such a terrible thing when the platform is the best thing out there?
- What game companies are losing money? Could this have anything to do with the supply of PS2s being not totally smooth? Such problems usually plague a new system. The game companies will be making money soon enough.
And finally...
- How are MS and Nintendo going to "open a can of whoop-ass on Sony's empire?"
Nintendo has been promoting games and developers like it. That doesn't mean that it will instantly become a success. Being as good as the PS2 won't convince millions of gamers to switch. Also, Nintendo did a good job of beating a half-dead opponent (Atari), but their performance against other contenders (Sega, Sony) has been less than stellar. Nintendo can attract the younger crowd with Mario and Pokemon, but they don't have the bait to attract the elders.
And then there's MS, which has great experience with PC games, but none with console/video games. Will the XBox venture work for MS? Not likely.
When was the last time MS did something right on their first try? Anyone remember actually Word 1 or IE 1? MS learns quickly and improves upon their past mistakes, but it usually takes a while for them to catch on. First impressions mean a lot in the gaming industry. Also, MS relies on its dominance, and intimate knowledge of the OS for its success. If the XBox successfully makes it out of the gate w/o major hiccups, we're likely to see some cool games from MS. However, the XBox won't get far without help from 3rd party developers. What would Nintendo have been without Capcom and SquareSoft? MS is notoriously bad at working well with others; MS loves having total control. MS will probably put together a nice game development platform, but I can see them ticking off a lot of developers through licensing agreements and payment arrangements. If they don't make it easy and simple like Sony did for the PS1, they'll end up being the only supporters of the XBox game library. Even if you do hate Sony, don't put your bets on MS "revolutionizing" the video game industry.
Sony may not have a strangle-hold on the video gaming world, but they have solid footing which isn't likely to crumble soon. And, with the current field of contenders as it is, they'll have to make some serious mistakes before falling from their perch.
Jason
Which platform(s) ha{s,ve} the game(s) you want most.
:)
:)
You will buy th{at,ose} platform(s)
Personally, i've got a Dreamcast, but only because I won it at a programming contest. I like the DC, and im sad to see it go, but it hardly matters since i've got a ton of fantastic games for it (Sega GT, F355 chall, Tony hawk 1 and 2, etc..)
So when im trying to decide what i'll get next, i have to look at what games i like...
Currently, i dont have a PS2, because not a single damn game out of 29 launch titles looked worth a damn. Too bad. However, im looking forward to GT3, MGS2, and ZOE. When those 3 are out, I'll probably buy a PS2.
On the X-box.. on paper, and in demos, its fantastic. Its got ethernet built right in (i dont ever want another console with a modem stuck in it.. ridiculous!) But, i need to see a sim-racing game, i need to see something _like_ MGS2...show me something i want to play, and i'll buy it. So far, the Metropolis Street Racer "update" looks pretty good, but im speculating that i'll want something a bit more focused on realistic driving physics. Also, carmack has said Doom3 is coming to xbox. Given that xbox is more powerful than a GF3, and probably wont cost $600, xbox may be the cheapest (best?) way to play the next id title
Finally, theres Nintendo. I liked the sniper rifle out of golden eye. That was about it for N64. Zelda was visually pleasing and all, and so was the mario game, but i never got into either of them. If nintendo is smart they'll try and bring back some of their best 8-bit franchises... i'd love to see a game cube castlevania game.. and of course there will be at least 2 zelda games on game cube.. there will of course also be a mario game.. and it looks pretty certain that there will be a new metroid game!... so i'll probably need a game cube as well
If i can afford all 3 machines, i'll get em all. If not, i'll have to figure out which games i can live without.
My opinions are my own, and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
When did mario die? Nintendo games are selling extremely well, and the Game Boy is unchallenged in the portable gaming market.
I'm sorry, but Nintendo will NOT be taking Sony's top spot, whether we like it or not (M$ does have a chance though).
Why? Because the majority of Nintendo's games are still marketed at the 6-12 age group. For every Goldeneye and Conker, there's 50 Pokemon and Hot Wheels games.
The inability of people to see the advantages of Nintendo's target demographic is part of the genius that is Nintendo. What is particularly amusing is that you fail to realize that Nintendo makes more money than Sony from console games sales. In fact last year Nintendo made over $700 million more than Sony from games sales (in fact it made more than Sony and Sega combined). This is besides the fact that Nintendo licensing deals give them a bigger chunk of change than Sony's do.
Think about it for a second. Who has more money to buy games? Baby boomers and soccer moms who want to give their spoilt little angels whatever they want including every considerable flavor of Pokeman merhcandise or teenagers who can't even afford to buy $17 CDs (let alone $35 - $55 games) and get most of their music from Napster?
Think about it.
Squaresoft has said that they wanted to port 4-6 to a handheld system THAT IS NOT THE WONDER SWAN. There is only one handheld system that isn't a wonderswan and it's called the game boy advance.
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I would assume that it's the same reason for DVD regions: market/pricing control.
If the game manufacturers sell a game/DVD for price A in region alpha and price B in region Beta and A>B (as is often the case) then someone can buy in region aeta take the product to region Beta and sell at a price C such that A>C>B making a profit and undercutting the retailers in region Alpha.
If, however, you can't use region beta games in region alpha then the whole scheme doesn't work.
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! I can see it now. *rumble rumble rumble* (deep voice): Wise fwom your gwaavvvvve....(cheezey mario music kicks in) ba da da da da dum! (plink) Doo doo doo doododoodo.....
Vintage computer games and RPG books available. Email me if you're interested.
Alot of people are making valid points against your argument but I think there are a few fundamental ones. Sony is not making enough headway. I only know one person that even lives with someone who has one. Sony has to dominate before the gamecube and x-box come out. It is expensive and the gamecube will be $200 when it comes out and of course the prices of both will probably decrease unless of course sony doesn't get their supply chain in check in which case price won't matter because the few that get out will be sold anyway. Think about this though, when the gamecube does hit ( I know its a long time away) who the hell is going to buy a PS2 still? The prices for the PS2 and gamecube will probably be about the same by then, and the gamecube will be the hot new things. If Sony does try to compete pricewise, they are really going to leak money. I can't wait until the gamcube and x-box and I don't even care one bit about the PS2. It doesn't have any games at all that I want to buy.
I think that Sony will get wiped out in the gaming market in a few months. I don't think even Final Fantasy and Metal Gear Solid can save them, they will be a few killer games after the console has been out for 10 months, which is not good enough. People seem to think nintendo will have the young market and sony and x-box will have the older market. I think that nintendo will completely sweep the young market, nintendo and x-box will duke it out for the older market, and sony will get crushed.
As for a dvd player, think about how many people have them now, and then think in 6 months who won't have them. Anyone who wants one will have one by then, DVD playback won't be a big factor anymore.
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There is a saying that you are only as good as your last movie/game/album. If people didn't like final fantasy 8 and 9 they aren't going to spend $350 to get final fantasy 10. Sony is going to be obliviated by nintendo and the x-box. Even if the gamecube was equal in every other way (which it isn't) final fantasy and metal gear aren't going to hold up to marios/zelda/metroid/sonic the four greatest selling most well know series of games of all time. No way in hell.
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Amigori
"The quality of life is determined by its activites."--Aristotle
The strange thing is, we will have little idea what the games will be like for a couple of months still. Nintendo is purposely keeping quiet about the games in development and they have bound all licensees with NDAs. Developers are allowed to announce what they're working on, but no playable demos (other than Miyamoto's surreal Mario demo) have been shown - the video reel shown at spaceworld was made up of non-interactive cut scenes and FMV. Supposedly the secrecy will allow Nintendo to keep a lid on the hype so they can blow us all away at E3.
In short I think if there are some good playable games showing at E3, Nintendo's future is virtually guaranteed. If it looks like the games won't be ready, they could languish in Sony's (or Microsoft's) shadow for a few more years still. Actually, if key games aren't ready in time for the console's launch, Nintendo will almost certainly delay the release.
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Oh, and you say "antitrust", I say "Dubya"!
The switching of who was the top dog in the industry depends an awful lot on having a product that doesn't suck, and in fact is prety damn good.
MS has made it's money in the PC market by the method of incremental improvement. each version sucked less, as far as the consumer was concerned. In fact to a certain degree, that has been part of the microsoft marketing (New! Improved! Sucks Less!) campaigns.
This contrasts with the Game market, which really depends on getting it mostly right, right out of the box in version 1.0 - News reports include lines like "It is my job to make sure it doesn't suck" from certain senior execs of the project.
While we know the power of MS marketing to push a product that is not better than the competition, it will be interesting to see if they have the temperment to change the company pattern of version 1.0 being hohum at best.
As the old sig line goes:
"I picked up a Magic 8-Ball the other day and it said 'Outlook not so good.'
I said, 'Sure, but Microsoft still ships it.'"
"It is a greater offense to steal men's labor, than their clothes"
Rather surprisingly...
Sega.
Think about it, both Sega and Nintendo have always been known for great games and we know that isn't going to change. PS1 and PC have been charecterised as quantity over quality, and that trend looks to continue with PS2 and X-Box. But with Sega publishing on PS2, X-Box, Gameboy Advance and possibly Gamecube, it's hard to see how they can loose.
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Blaming GW Bush for the Iraq war is like blaming Ronald McDonald for the poor quality of food.
I dissagree with your lumping Europe in with the US market. European gamers are much more into football (soccer) games and Driving sims than their US counterparts and the relative lack of importance placed on FPS titles and complex RPGs.
Sounds familiar.
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Know someone who is stealing cable? Report them!
I'm sorry, but Nintendo will NOT be taking Sony's top spot, whether we like it or not (M$ does have a chance though).
Why? Because the majority of Nintendo's games are still marketed at the 6-12 age group. For every Goldeneye and Conker, there's 50 Pokemon and Hot Wheels games.
And Microsoft? Well, they still have to win over the Japanese market, which will be about as touch as trying to win back the people pissed off about their "conceptual artwork" (read: photoshopped screenshots).
Plus, there's one company neither Nintendo or Microsoft has, and has determined the top console three times in a row. Squaresoft. Now, look at past history; Squaresoft was with Nintendo on the NES and the NES sold well, Squaresoft was with Nintendo on the SNES and the SNES sold well, Squaresoft was with Sony on the PSX and the PSX sold VERY well. Now, Squaresoft is already making at LEAST three games at this point for the PS2 (Final Fantasy X, XI, and XII are all in development, not to mention REMAKES of Final Fantasy VII, VIII, and IX for the PS2), and it looks like the Sony will come out on top. Plus, Nintendo's president bashing Square a month ago pretty much secured Nintendo a plot in the graveyard populated by 3DO, CD-I, and Atari.
And its not just Squaresoft. Nintendo pretty much ignored the RPG market with the N64, with only one REAL RPG being released (Zelda is NOT an RPG). Paper Mario, the "sequel" to Squaresoft's Mario RPG is not only original and fun, but it reminded me how much Nintendo ignored the RPG crowd.
Also, dvd playback will NOT be an option on the Game Cube, and Nintendo has said that they'll market this as a gaming-only machine. Well, that rules out the CASUAL gamers, who would rather buy a gaming unit WITH dvd playback instead of two seperate machines. Not a good move on Nintendo's part, especially since I know people who were sold on the PS2 simply because of the dvd playback.
Plus, I've had the luxery of playing the Metal Gear Solid 2 demo since its Japanese release. And I can honestly say that this is one game that could sell PS2s by itsself (and this is a DEMO!). What's Nintendo going to fire back with, Pokemon Snap 3?! *Ooh...I'd rather be taking virtual pictures of a wild Pikachu than guiding Solid Snake through kick ass top secret missions in one of the most immersive console games ever* Ugh.
The Game Cube WILL find some popularity, even if for no reason other than the option of hooking up our Game Boy Advances to. But, as far as Nintendo reclaiming the console throne? Not going to happen. So, aside from some games like Luigi's Mansion, Nintendo is going to have to work DAMN hard to win back the hardcore gamers who were left with only about seven good games for the N64.