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The End Of The Innovation Road for CMOS

Posted by Hemos on from the what-will-happen-next dept.

Elledan writes "According to this EE Times article, CMOS technology (also used to create CPUs with) is getting near the moment when we will no longer be able to create smaller structures with it. With the date for this moment set around 2012 and with no replacement technology in sight, this issue might become a real problem in the near future, as the article explains."

4 of 261 comments (clear)

  1. Is this actually a problem? by panurge · · Score: 5, Insightful

    At what point does the performance of computers become "adequate"? Once a technology becomes mature, a slow rate of improvement becomes acceptable. Reliability gets fixed, design improves, niche markets get filled. Internal combustion engines, houses, aircraft, ships, bridges, for all of these the lack of a Moores Law isn't a "problem". Perhaps if Moore's Law finally packs in for computers, we can all stop chasing progress and concentrate on things like social implications, human factors, and software that does something useful.

    --
    Panurge has posted for the last time. Thanks for the positive moderations.
    1. Re:Is this actually a problem? by mshiltonj · · Score: 5, Insightful

      At what point does the performance of computers become "adequate"?

      Not for a long while. Error-free Voice Recognition? Artificial Intelligence? Robots? Cars that don't need drivers?

      We need Terahertz processors.

      Perhaps if Moore's Law finally packs in for computers, we can all stop chasing progress and concentrate on things like social implications, human factors, and software that does something useful.

      These are not mutually exclusive goals. I'd say they go hand in hand. You can't concetrate on the social implications of progress without first having progress.

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      Software Wars
  2. How many times...? by rhadc · · Score: 5, Insightful

    How many times have we heard this prediction?

    I remember when 200mhz was the end of the road. 'They' always manage
    to give us another 10-15 years. It's like drilling for oil.

    Besides, while Mhz makes a big difference to speed, design is more important.
    Even if we hit this wall, we'd just continue to improve in other areas.

    This is a different kind of FUD, but FUD it is.

    rhadc

  3. About this CAD community... by dinotrac · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Chip makers complain because the "CAD Community" isn't coming up with solutions to some of their problems, but University R&D programs are unable to keep up with fabrication standards as the equipment gets more expensive.

    Isn't this a problem waiting for a few self-interested chip-makers to whip their wallets in the direction of a few universities?