Posted by
CowboyNeal
on from the plate-tectonics dept.
evilocity writes "A BBC story reports that scientists are now using satellite radar to study earthquakes and fault lines, gathering more data than was ever before possible. Already the findings are challenging current theories, but the practical goal of course is earthquake forecasting."
Similar technology...
by
aaronsb
·
· Score: 4, Informative
This is similar to the USGS's identification of a volcanic uplift in Oregon. There's a large bulg developing near the Three Sisters Peaks. (it's only a couple inches different though).
Here's a link.
http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Volcanoes/Sisters/West Up lift/ground_uplift_may2001.html
Guns don't kill people -- people kill people. But the guns seem to help a bit. (apologies to Eddie Izzard)
from the ring of fire...
by
greenguy
·
· Score: 2, Insightful
We need this here in Managua. There was a report that a major earthquake was expected last week, but it didn't happen. Bizzarely, the media then said the danger was over. Given the history of this town, I don't buy that for a second. We are in danger of losing hundreds or thousands of lives (potentially including mine) at any moment, so any help is a big help.
-- What if I do the same thing, and I do get different results?
Re:from the ring of fire...
by
Jace+of+Fuse!
·
· Score: 2
Your concern is understandable. I mean, if there is a fault, and pressure is building, then there is no reason to assume just because it didn't go off when predicted that it won't go off in the near future.
Though, from what I remember (and someone please correct me if I'm wrong) but the plates press up against each other with a kind of wave like regularity. That is -- there is some kind of ressonance going on and when the frequencies get within a certain range (as the theories currently go) the conditions are better for an earthquake than when they aren't ressonating "right" or whatever.
I'm certainly no expert on the subject, and perhaps someone would like to explain this further. But my point is -- I think if they predicted an earthquake at a certian time, it was probably because they believed the conditions would be right for it at that time.
Of course, since it's all theory and they really don't have much of a clue, I think I would be packing my bags if I were you.
--
"Everything you know is wrong. (And stupid.)"
Moderation Totals: Wrong=2, Stupid=3, Total=5.
Almost Entirely Irrelevant...
by
Galahad2
·
· Score: 2, Interesting
But this is kind of cool. A while back, when we Seattleites weathered an earthquake, a pendulum set up in a store that was balanced over sand carved an amazing pattern. It's worth a look, even if it has nothing to do with satellites!
Earthquake forecasting?
by
fence
·
· Score: 3, Funny
Does anyone believe that scientists will be able to accurately forecast earthquakes in our lifetime(s)?
Really, many of our local TV weather-critters don't accurately forecast the weather for tomorrow, earthquakes seem to be a bit of a stretch.
Tomorrow we anticipate clear skys in the San Fernando Valley, with a high near 82 degrees F. Look for minor tremors around magnitude 4.5 in the foothills during your afternoon commute
--
Interested in the Colorado Lottery or Powerball games?
check out http://colotto.com
The time scale is the problem
by
Bjarne+Bula
·
· Score: 2, Informative
I'm pretty sure forecasts are possible. Geologists can already today measure the increasing pressure in a fault that eventually produces a quake. The technology described in this article only gives them a more comprehensive tool to do this.
However, we need to keep in mind that these processes operate on geological time scales. When you start seeing pressure in a fault, and no slippage, you pretty much know there will be a quake "soon". However, our society need predictions accurate to the day, and I doubt we'll see better accuracy than month, year or decade.
There are, apparently, signs of an impending quake that operate on shorter (week or month) time scales, but there are enough false positives (or rather, again the time scale is such that they seem to be false positives on the human time scale), that these warnings will not be taken seriously enough.
Geological evidence suggests that the Californian peninsula eventually will be an island outside Seattle (not sinking in the sea as some SF suggests). We can pretty much assume it won't walk there, so if you live around the fault, you pretty much know what's going to happen, just not exactly when.
Myself, I was in the SF-area for the first time in 1989, just in time for the Loma Prieta earthquake. I have never returned - I can take a hint.
Navagent's EarthQuake
by
Jamyang
·
· Score: 5, Informative
EarthQuake is a slick little app that contacts the USGS and gathers the latest quake data, and then plots it onto a spinning globe on your desktop. You can customize the style display, set alarms to trigger when a new quake occurs anywhere in the world, and sort data by Richter scale quake magnitude.
It is widely known that animals react strangely before substantial seismic activity.
Perhaps scientists should get their heads out of space and hook up animal shelter's life signs to computers to monitor unusual symptoms on a macro scale.
Cats get all squirrelly before major quakes, which was evidenced by the doubling of lost pet classified ads in San Francisco papers leading up to the 1989 quake.
-- Game: Player 'Donald J Trump' now has AI skill level 'experimental'.
Re:What good would it do?
by
kfstark
·
· Score: 2, Insightful
Remember: forecasting != predicting
Forecasting long term seismic activity is valuable for strategic plans including placement of emergency responders and updating of building codes. It _will_ happen, we just don't know exactly when. The best we can say is that the odds are higher here than there in the (relatively) near future.
Slashdot Mirror
This is similar to the USGS's identification of a volcanic uplift in Oregon. There's a large bulg developing near the Three Sisters Peaks. (it's only a couple inches different though).
t Up lift/ground_uplift_may2001.html
Here's a link.
http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Volcanoes/Sisters/Wes
We need this here in Managua. There was a report that a major earthquake was expected last week, but it didn't happen. Bizzarely, the media then said the danger was over. Given the history of this town, I don't buy that for a second. We are in danger of losing hundreds or thousands of lives (potentially including mine) at any moment, so any help is a big help.
What if I do the same thing, and I do get different results?
But this is kind of cool. A while back, when we Seattleites weathered an earthquake, a pendulum set up in a store that was balanced over sand carved an amazing pattern. It's worth a look, even if it has nothing to do with satellites!
Does anyone believe that scientists will be able to accurately forecast earthquakes in our lifetime(s)?
Really, many of our local TV weather-critters don't accurately forecast the weather for tomorrow, earthquakes seem to be a bit of a stretch.
Tomorrow we anticipate clear skys in the San Fernando Valley, with a high near 82 degrees F. Look for minor tremors around magnitude 4.5 in the foothills during your afternoon commute
Interested in the Colorado Lottery or Powerball games?
check out http://colotto.com
I'm pretty sure forecasts are possible. Geologists can already today measure the increasing pressure in a fault that eventually produces a quake. The technology described in this article only gives them a more comprehensive tool to do this.
However, we need to keep in mind that these processes operate on geological time scales. When you start seeing pressure in a fault, and no slippage, you pretty much know there will be a quake "soon". However, our society need predictions accurate to the day, and I doubt we'll see better accuracy than month, year or decade.
There are, apparently, signs of an impending quake that operate on shorter (week or month) time scales, but there are enough false positives (or rather, again the time scale is such that they seem to be false positives on the human time scale), that these warnings will not be taken seriously enough.
Geological evidence suggests that the Californian peninsula eventually will be an island outside Seattle (not sinking in the sea as some SF suggests). We can pretty much assume it won't walk there, so if you live around the fault, you pretty much know what's going to happen, just not exactly when.
Myself, I was in the SF-area for the first time in 1989, just in time for the Loma Prieta earthquake. I have never returned - I can take a hint.
250k ZIP file download
Only available for Windows 95/98/ME/NT/2000/XP
Navagent also offer a powerful search and data visualization tool that i've found useful for tracking the China Googlebomb: Surf3D
I love the blurry photo of the scientist, or rather the caption.
"Yuri Fialko says the earthquake data is valuable"
Not too enthralling for us who just like to look at the pictures, rather than RTFA'ing.
I don't need no instructions to know how to rock!!!!
It is widely known that animals react strangely before substantial seismic activity.
Perhaps scientists should get their heads out of space and hook up animal shelter's life signs to computers to monitor unusual symptoms on a macro scale.
Cats get all squirrelly before major quakes, which was evidenced by the doubling of lost pet classified ads in San Francisco papers leading up to the 1989 quake.
Game: Player 'Donald J Trump' now has AI skill level 'experimental'.
You can report and view reports of earthquakes here.
FoundNews.com - get paid to blog.,
Remember:
forecasting != predicting
Forecasting long term seismic activity is valuable for strategic plans including placement of emergency responders and updating of building codes.
It _will_ happen, we just don't know exactly when. The best we can say is that the odds are higher here than there in the (relatively) near future.