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Talk To an Astute IT Industry Observer
Dan Gillmor is about as high on the IT journalist and industry pundit "respect" totem pole as you can get. Slashdot has linked to hundreds of his articles. What do you ask this veteran observer of the Silicon Valley scene? Whatever you like, one question per post. We'll email 10 of the highest-moderated questions to Dan 24 - 36 hours after this post goes up, and run his answers shortly after he gets them back to us.
What operating system do you think (most) desktop users will be using 10 years down the road, and why? Will it be *nix, or Microsoft, or something else?
To make laws that man cannot, and will not obey, serves to bring all law into contempt.
--E.C. Stanton
Do you foresee Silicon Valley as the continuing center of tech jobs, or has its reign of the markets long since been gone and will never return?
-Valiss
We all know that the old-style model of the internet is broken, websites are unable to rely on banner ads and (ick) pop-ups anymore pay the bills. My question to you then is this, how do you believe the future of the web will be, will it be that every website will just have a donation box, or will they all make you pay a subscription fee like is now happening with some of the bigger websites? Or do you see a third answer, sponsorship, whether corporate or by a bigger website that can already pay the bills?
I hate sigs.
which of the "big " players in silicon valley, hp sun etc do yo think will stil be here in say 20 years? and why? it seems that companies pop in and out of existance almost on a daily basis in the technology world
dybia felly dwi a hampster (i think therefore i am a hampster)
What's your best guess on how Judge Kollar-Kotelly will rule? The Judge Jackson's ruling came as an utter and complete surprise to almost everyone who hadn't followed *web* reports on the trial. The mass media did a very bad job protraying the issues of the original trial, basically parroting MSFT and Wag-Edd's "freedom to innovate" press releases, rather than reporting on the fairly straightforward restraint of trade case that the DoJ made. This time around, the web reporters seemed a bit confused by how the case went as well.
Quit playing Monopoly with Bill. Switch to one of many non-Microsoft products today.
How do you see the current weak economy affecting the IT industry today? Is the lack of corporate spending hurting the number of jobs, increasing the workload of IT professionals, or reducing the amount of technology brought into the modern workplace? Or is it merely affecting where companies choose to spend their dollars? (such as Linux instead of Solaris or Windows, open source instead of closed source, new faster hardware or older, not-as-fast but adequate hardware)
For a lot of us, the biggest issue on our personal agenda is employment: the chances of being laid off, and (worse) how long it will take to find a decent replacement job. (Underemployment is an issue, too; staying in the tech sector but taking more than a 25% pay cut, or leaving the tech sector in order to pay the rent/mortgage.)
It's not just relative to the dotcom bubble. There are few jobs, and those that are out there process applicants via companies that specialize in resume processing. (The latter means it's all about keywords, not how good you are.) The most reliable way to get a job continues to be working your personal network; but many networks have dissolved, as everyone gets laid off in a short period of time.
What's your take? From where you sit, have you seen any bright spots, or any indications things might get better (or worse)? What coping strategies have you seen people find for sucessfully getting new jobs, or surviving unemployment well?
Stupid job ads, weird spam, occasional insight at
My question is about the Microsoft .NET product. It's rather a simple question, but one that nobody seems to be able to answer:
.NET??? Will it dramatically change the world? What do you think the results of .NET are going to be?
What the heck is
It's getting easier and cheaper to outsource programming jobs to India, Russia and Singapore (among other nations). How much longer can programmers count on a healthy, US based industry?
Currently, most of the industry relies on a silicon based technology, using optics to burn silicon wafers. What technology areas do you see the industry looking into, as well as what are areas the industry isn't looking into that it should? Add to this, what technologies are out there that in your opinion aren't looked at heavily enough? As a last part of this, where do you see most of the innovation. Is it in large corporations, such as IBM, or smaller corporations or startup companies?
While reading articles about new technology from various mainstream media sources, I get the impression that they have absolutly no idea what they're talking about. It's clear to me that the average mainstream journalist has, at best, a minimal understanding of the techology that he or she is reporting on.
What impact does this have on the public's perception and awareness of new technoloy, and will this lack of understanding dissapear as older journalists are replaced by a younger, more tech-savvy breed?
We all know the economy is going in cycles, but how cyclic is IT, in your experience? When was the last big downturn, what happened back then and what changed because of it?
Right now, most of "us" IT-workers are facing the results of "new economy" bubble and the consecutive downturn of IT.
Here in Germany, I remember that in 1991 when I finished high school, people told me not to go study computer science because back then, the career outlook was bland and many IT academics were unemployed or received low figures. Then came the internet, salaries and everything else exploded, which was nice while it lastet, yet incredibly surreal.
Right now clients are sitting on every single penny , I know highly-skilled IT workers who are nevertheless unemployed because companies stopped hiring and around us and even some of the former key players of the industry are going bust...
So, do you remember a similar economic situation in IT and how did you experience it?
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Many of us here are happy to criticise IT Journalists in general for inaccuracy or biased opinion. You've managed to build a reputation for yourself without attracting much of that bad karma.
What/where/who do you read/research/ask to stay abreast of the many technical aspects you need to report on (to keep technical accuracy) without simply taking various companies words for granted (and thus loosing your unbiased approach)?
Have you ever had a conflict of interest; like, what you should write, rather than what would get you promoted or would be better for your career? How do you deal with this?
Ubiquitous personal computers, ubiquitous fax machines, ubiquitous e-mail (I can send e-mail to every member of my family), ubiquitous Internet access (especially the Web), ubiquitous wireless voice service: telecom and computing innovations keep changing the world. Do you see anything that's just a blip on the radar screen today, but which might have a big impact on people's lives in a few years?
Stupid job ads, weird spam, occasional insight at
IIRC, back in the day you were pretty seriously activist: I seem to remember you at Usenix handing out buttons and carrying signs.
Do you still consider yourself an activist? If not, what changed? Is there still a place for activism in the geek community? What is it?
Being a German software developer, I don't quite get your question. Software development was never a solely US-based industry.
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I'd really LIKE to believe that Apple is taking a conscious and principled stand against digital restrictions management, as suggested in your article here.
Your article is, however, basically speculative.
Do you have any evidence that Apple really has an anti-DRM corporate strategy? Gateway has issued a limited but significant public statement of support for fair-use rights. Do you have any ideas why Apple has not done anything like this?
"How to Do Nothing," kids activities, back in print!
Many people talk about doing something about the "digital divide", where third world and developing countries are fast falling far behind, most with very few computers and little or no internet access, do you forsee this ever changing or will this situation just get worse as time goes on?
...as a longtime observer, what has surprised you most about the current technology, in a positive (what did you never expect to happen?) and in a negative (what should never have happened?) way?
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Silicon Valley venture capitalists in the late 1990s turned their money and attentions to bear on creating dozens of companies that never had any hope of turning a profit.
From personal experience I've seen just how powerful VCs are in shaping the development of the IT market through their iron-grip control of individual startups.
Have you noticed any fundamental power shifts or changes in the way startup IT companies are being funded and created in the Valley over the past couple of years?
Read the EFF's Fair Use FAQ
Market Stauration has been seen coming since around 2000 or before, combined with the end to the "software gets slower" Corrolary to Moore's law ("Groves Giveth and Gates Taketh away"). For the last couple of years, the IT bubble covered up many of these effects.
Now that the bubble is gone, Mr Bill's Corrolary has (mostly) failed, and the market is obviously saturated, when are Intel/AMD/Microsoft going to admit to this, and what are the general industry plans to deal with this, beyond the obvious software rental model?
Test your net with Netalyzr
Microsoft's approach is to tune the database (SQL Server) to act as a file system, scheduled replace NTFS in 2006. The open source community, however, is taking the opposite approach and aiming to make the file system more database-like.
One of the most promising ideas right now for Linux seems to be coming from Hans Reiser, soon to be implemented in a future version of Reiser FS. Reiser FS will store many attributes about a file in other files, basically expanding the capabilites of the file system into a database.
Which do you see as the more promising approah? What do you think the impact of such hybrid filesystem/databases will be on DBMS such as Oracle, Sybase, and DB2?
I'm always amazed at how industry commentators have re-written history, particularly when it comes to the computer industry.
For example, in Robert X. Cringely's book "Accidental Empires", he tells the story of how the personal computer grew from a hobby toy to one of the most important devices ever made.
But it's a decidedly left-coast "californa-centric" point of view. Very little mention of IBM is ever made, except how they screwed up and gave the golden key to Bill Gates, and computer industry pioneer Commodore doesn't even seem to warrant a paragragh, although at one point in the early 80's CBM held over 33% of the market.
So, my question is: Do you feel that the number of reporters hovering around Silicon Valley have distorted the view of the rise of the industry?
While I also believe that Woz is due saint-hood, I also have tempered that view with the knowledge that both Commodore and Clive Sinclair did more to raise the bar on the Personal Computer than most others, despite the Mac being "insanely great".
When I watch "Pirates of Silicon Valley" I can't help but feel that we're cheating ourselves by allowing the "pundits" to dictate how this industry came to where it is now.
It does appear at times that the those reporting on technology are often just cheerleaders for whatever large software/hardware company pays the advertising bills for the magazine that reporter works for.
How do you feel about these issues?
If telephones are outlawed, then only outlaws will have telephones.
When computers, first became widely available to the public, there were a lot fewer governing laws and regulations. The also applies to the internet in its initial stages.
Nowadays, it seems that one can't do anything with a PC without a bunch of rules, regulations, or disclaimers. While it's understandable that many companies wish to protect their products, and also protect themselves from lawsuits, it seems that today freedom in IT is becoming increasingly narrow.
What do you think the future of the internet is, in a legal and freedoms sense? Will it continue to become a medium for free expression (quite strongly accented by sites such as here, slashdot), or will insane lawsuits and regulations put to much fear into using the freedoms which are so easily stepped on today.
As the world integrates IT more and more into our lives, what will happen with it as a medium of freedom Vs one of restriction. Will we still be able to speak our minds online, or will we live under the chains of lawsuits, speed governers, and surveillance devices.
Technology is a wonderful medium for crossing new boundries, but often it seems to also be used to impose new ones. Which usage for technology do you see being stronger in the future: the wings or the chains, and how would you see each being applied?
Can you offer any insights as to why, even after all these years, forces in the IT and journalism scenes still insist on beating up Apple Computer? The cries of "Apple is dying!" have echoed in my ears for over ten years, and Apple still survives - in fact, Apple is one of the few computer companies to continue to make a profit in the current slowdown. From it's early days as the first true home PC, all the way up to it's current award-winning accomplishments - Firewire, the iPod, the first true consumer-oriented Unix OS - Apple has positioned itself as a leader in the industry. So why is it that the industry is forever running it down, instead of giving it the credit it deserves?
Come to the University of Mars! Classes starting soon!
With so much money having been tossed around, surely there was a lot of corrupt dealings; however, I haven't seen any press or other talk of such happenings.
Is it primarily because these companies weren't public and thus publicly accountable that any mini-Enron's were simply never discovered?
In some ways, corruption would be a little more comforting of an explanation than sheer stupidity.
I feel like I might be pretty naive in not realizing some of this is going on. What's your take on corrupt dealings, patronage, and such in the industry?
-me
Love many, trust a few, do harm to none.
As an IT security specialist, poor software quality - both in design and implementation - is my greatest headache (and my surest job security). How aware are consumers and the media of this problem, do you think the critical mass of demand for quality software ever coalesce, and what effect will/would this have on the industry?
and what is its stock symbol?
The Kruger Dunning explains most post on
There has recently been a push in serveral governments, though not so much in the US, to adopt a policy of favoring Open Source solutions above commercial solutions. Do you see these initiatives as some grass-roots desire for glasnost, or a reaction to US technological imperialism?
What if it is just turtles all the way down?
The payoff between technology spending and actual rewards (profits) has been difficult to establish in statistical studies.
In the 90's companies seemed to believe in IT benefits dispite this lack of a solid connection. Has the tide now turned such that companies are going to shun IT projects and revert to more traditional (manual) processes for the borderline functions that are not clear candidates for automation?
In my observation, whenever there are no clear and/or agreed-upon metrics for the usage of a given technique or approach, then its popularity is highly subject to whim, speculation, and fads.
For example, the "market-share over profits" viewpoint was popular in the 80's during the Japan boom. Now it is pretty much dead. Is IT in the same boat now?
Table-ized A.I.
The IT press has been promising us a variety of malarkey for years - Microsoft innovation, Apple going out of business, Linux on the desktop, flying cars, ...
As I see it, to a large extent this is due to an over-reliance of IT journalists on industry contacts and a highly incestuous meme-pool.
Since industry contacts are driven by their own agendas to poison the meme-pool with hype and FUD, reporters typically serve only to reinforce entrenched concerns in the industry.
This is particularly troublesome given that the IT industry of uniquely reliant upon innovation which has traditionally emerged from smaller players & upstarts.
Therefore, does IT journalism really contribute positively to the industry and, if so, how?
Do you feel that patent law is driving innovation as originally envisioned by our founding fathers?
Should we shorten the term of patents in emerging technology fields, such as in software and other relatively new high tech industries?
If you post it, they will read.
Gone are the days where we can be best at whatever we like and be sure of paying the bills. In light of the job market and future trends, what would you pick as the top 3 to 5 technologies to learn right now, to help insure our paychecks don't shrink or stop coming.
Thanks.
Operator, give me the number for 911!
During the dot-com boom, a big wod of "IT professionals" came out of nowhere to help with web projects.
Many of these people seemed mostly interested in money and prestige, and not true computer-lovers like us real nerds on slashdot
Some now seem to be moving toward the currently hot accounting field.
What percentage of IT workers seem to be like this and what percent are successfully moving out of IT into a more happening field?
Will enough of them disappear from IT to return computer employement to normal?
Table-ized A.I.
There is an almost hemmoraging debate occuring right now regarding the DMCA, and DRM in general. On the one side of the debate, there are programmers and designers who understand the importance of IP and how it maintains thier salaries. On the other side, many technologists believe that DRM threatens the future of technology by disallowing free experimentation. Both sides of the issue appear to be absolutely correct. Turning every general purpose computer into a "protected appliance" will mean the end of an era for all of us, but abandoning DRM will effectively nullify the ability to make "content for profit". How can we save the "future" of technology, and at the same time ensure that we can continue to make a living? Has there been any murmuring in SV about this problem? Is there a light at the end of this tunnel?
The government has a defect: it's potentially democratic. Corporations have no defect: they're pure tyrannies. -Chomsky
My point is that IT workers living in America require "hefty" salaries. Nobody's going to want to be a programmer in America for less than $20-$25 an hour; the cost of living is simply too high.
So how are they supposed to compete with Indians who will do it for $5/hour?
Programmers in America see themselves as professionals. The ones who do it on the cheap in India, don't. If this trend continues, there won't be many (or any) programmers in America, because the work will all have been outsourced to somebody who will do it for 5 times less than s/he is worth.
If somebody living in another country is genuinely a better person for the job, then by all means, that's great. I hope that Americans get German contracts, and Germans get American contracts. And everyone pays each other a fair wage for the work.
But no German is going to work for 10 DM an hour doing programming.
If Indians were to charge the rates that are commensurate with the task, that too would be fine in my eyes. My problem is simply that it hurts everyone when workers of a certain type are undervalued.
I am a computer professional with twenty years of experience in the computer field. I do a variety of jobs, including programming and system administration. I know my computer stuff and I'm still in my (very late) twenties.
I am, however, getting sick of what passes for operating systems and applications these days. Many of my tech-savy friends are taking a serious look at Apple hardware and software 'because it just works'. The company I work for runs a collection of Windows and Linux machines. With Windows machines, we have to spend far too much time keeping the system patches and antivirus software up to date and generally managing them. I love Linux and use it all the time but I am still very aware that I am using a Linux system, not just a 'computer'.
And I am tired of it. Why should I have to care about the operating system? I want to use the computer to do my job. I don't want to fight with patches. I don't want to reinstall software and spend hours tuning the configurations. I'll do that for our servers because, at the moment at least, I have to. But why should I spend large part of my day managing the computers rather than just using the damn things? Why don't they just work? Why do I even still care what operating system I am running?
The reason is, of course, fairly obvious. But how do you see this changing over the next decade? Can we get a handle on the complexity? What influence will Apple have? Do you see operating systems becoming to a simple commodity (choose what you want, all your applications will work regardless)?
Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia.
Microsoft, a convicted monopolist, runs on something approaching 95% of desktop computers. It is seen by the rest of the world as a U.S. company.(not a strong endorsement in many quarters)Its code is closed, not open and is therefor (my opinion) insecure in that no one but Microsoft (and maybe the U.S. gov't) knows the back doors. What government in their right minds would willingly choose such a platform to run their future on. Especially given the availablity of "free", open software capable of doing the job. Witness Germany and KDE.
So the question is... Has Microsoft reached its apogee? Has it seen its best days from a growth and profitability standpoint? & if so is this a good or bad thing for IT & Silicon Valley?
"Don't Follow Leaders." Bob Dylan
-davidu
# Hack the planet, it's important.
As linux overtakes Solaris, other Unices, and M$ Windows in the server and workstation tiers, it could be a huge boon to businesses that use this technology. At the same time, could it actually hurt those employed at various levels of the high-tech industry? For example if linux is more efficient and scalable, might it:
Please note that I'm not decrying this potential effect of the use Linux or free software. If our industry is too fat (especially on the support side) then great. . . it should be cut down and people retrained. But it seems logical that the free software movement will cause efficiencies that will force a good percentage of this work-sector to "get with the program or get off the bus". The problem is that without consistent innovation at the business layer (businesses' use of technology) then the tech industry may not expand enough to allow retraining as a saviour for disenfranchised MCSEs, CNEs, etc. etc. If most businesses are content with basic file-serving, routing and printing without investing in technology then many people will just plain lose their jobs.
It seems to me that M$ has created a bubble with their inefficient and unreliable software. A LOT of people are employed to keep that junk working. In effect, businesses are subsidizing this "ill" part of the industry by throwing employees at a series of problems M$ has created. Similarly, forced dependence, and file incompatibilites, have allowed M$ to maintain a pricing bubble for software basics such as word-processing and simple spreadsheets. If they lose the OS war to free software and some of the office-turf to openoffice won't the air go out of a lot of balloons? Should people be bracing themselves for this?
I've wondered about these issues for a while and I'm sure you have much better insight into these topics than I do. What is your take?
Why is so much of the 'reporting' on and even ratings of and published recommendations of tech products based on what the maker says the product will do (ie feature lists) and so little based on actual performance (ie quality)? After buying a few highly-rated products way too buggy to use, why would anyone want to pay any attention to the press anymore?
Will the DMCA be overturned or changed? Will the freedom-loving internet/technology community ever be able to coalesce and become an effective lobbying organization to effect politics in a real way (e.g. the NRA, the farm lobby, Microsoft)?
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