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Slate Predicts The End Of TiVo
wiredog writes "Slate has an article about why TiVo (the company, not the idea) is destined to fail. It suffers from the same first mover disadvantage that did in the Newton and the Amiga."
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It's an article from Slate (a Microsoft publication) saying TiVo's dead. (Microsoft had DVR plans for XBox, last I heard.)
:^)
Whatever... I'll still buy a TiVo once I can afford it. And sit it down next to that Amiga500 I've always wanted to get.
It doesn't matter for me, though, I have my VCR programmed to record Mother Angelica every day.
A. Rightmann
People have started saying, "I'll just TiVo the show." The name TiVo is directy connected to it's function. Right now, I don't know any other company that does what they do. When I go to a Best Buy, Circuit City, etc. looking for a device to digitally record TV show, I'm going to go look for "TiVo".
I suspect that those same families still have their clocks flashing 12:00AM and do little more than read email on their P4 2GHz computers.
You're always going to have people who simply aren't going to make use of technology due to phobia.
However, the opposite side to their figures is that 70% of the people given TiVos ARE using it.
And I honestly can say that once you teach someone initially how to navigate through the menus, having the TiVo automatically catch your favorite shows whenever they're on, despite most schedule changes, is far easier than the hassles of putting in new tapes all the time and manually programming a change in a particular week's showtime.
.. I signed up for the yearly subscription thinking that I probably wouldn't use it for more than a year so why pay 200 bucks for a lifetime membership.
Well, over two years later and I'm still loving my Tivo. I use it more than any other AV component I own and I couldn't imagine not having it.
The devotee will even use TiVo as a verb
You can't buy that kinda of brand name recognition. ie q-tip, xerox
And compared with a VCR or DVD player, a TiVo is difficult to set up and maintain
Difficult to setup is accurate, but I'm not sure what is hard to maintain. All you have to do is watch TV shows and click on delete if you don't like them. Hit Thumbs up to stuff you like and thumbs down to stuff you don't. Not generalizing women, but my wife, who isn't that computer saavy has already learned how to bump her Season Passes over mine. I don't think it's difficult at all.
If TiVo does fall by the wayside, it will leave behind a throng of adoring fans
*sniff*
Live web cams
The Amiga failed in the marketplace not because they were the first mover, as the article suggests, but because the management at Commodore was hopelessly inept and corrupt. Instead of spending money marketing the Amiga and creating markets for them, they instead blew hundreds of millions of dollars on executive perks like private jets and company yaghts, not to mention obscene bonuses and stock option deals. It's failing had far more to do with Enron-style executive hubris than it ever did with market forces.
Why is it that the proponents of "one nation under God" are so eager to get rid of "liberty and justice for all"?
I just received a notice that DirecTV will be taking over the TiVo service for my unit. They also mentioned that the graphics will change on the interface, but none of the functionality. Does anyone know more about this?
Also to get a cheap DirecTV/TiVo unit, hit www.americansatellite.com and if you are a new subscriber they have the Phillips unit for $150. I bought mine about 7 months ago at $99. This included the unit, the dish and two installation kits.
I don't think the Commodore 64/Amiga analogy is quite accurate. Somewhat of a slam (apologies), but the Commodore 64 was a very successful product, even by the article's own numbers. 22,000,000 units sold, versus 500,000 TiVos. While Amiga failed on the heel of a successful product, you can't say "Look! TiVo's going to fail! They're trying to make a followup to a successful product! Look at the Commodore 64!"
Okay, I agree a bit in that the TiVo is difficult to extoll the virtues of (in a small number of words), perhaps in the same way as an Amiga. We (consumers) don't have the vocabulary to describe what TiVo does, and that really really has hurt TiVo. Most people just don't get their mind completely wrapped around the product. "Oh. That's the thing that pauses live TV?" "Yeah. Isn't that some kind of television set?"
Perhaps TiVo is more Jack Tramiel than Commodore/Amiga. Jack though that word-of-mouth would carry him through. So much for the Atari home computer division! TiVo needs to educate people on its product.
About the difficult of install? I'd think the learning curve for America Online would be as difficult as a TiVo. But that's its greatest blessing and its greatest bane. It is a very different device.
Probably the best into line I can say when describing a TiVo is the effect: "It completely changes the way you view television at home, and for the better."
Really, in reading this article, I really don't see how they go about providing their title, that it is destined for the trash heap of history. While that might be true, they don't get into any real fact. Just neat stories.
How was the Amiga "not a success?" Sure, it's not around and popular today, like PCs, but then again, neither are Apple IIs, Commodore 64s, Atari 8-bits, Atari STs, etc. It's called progress.
With TiVo, we're talking about a VERY simple concept. To the end user, all it does is record and play back (and all that other good stuff). It's not something you have to go out and buy software for, and hope that the latest and greatest Laser printer will work for it.
Comparing TiVo to (un)successful computer platforms is like apples to oranges.
Also, I didn't really understand this part:
Joe Six-Pack, however, was stumped. VCRs and video-game machines had just recently made a splash in the mass market.
Umm... "Recently" as in "8 years before?" (The Amiga 1000 came out in 1985. The Atari VCS (aka 2600) came out in 1977.)
This, too:
he Amiga, which featured such revolutionary perks as a full-color screen (a big plus in the age of green-and-black Apple IIc monitors) and stereo sound.
Let's see - we what else had full-color screens? Atari 400/800 (1979), Commodore 64 (1982), and hey! Apple II! (You just needed the right monitor, I believe.)
Apple II's came out in 1977 and was still in production through 1993.
I can nitpick further, but I actually have something productive to do... somewhere... (checking pockets) No, not there...
The examples they give would be the same for any PVR, not just TiVo, this includes ReplayTV and XBox2. And a TiVo is really not that hard to use. My mom that has a hard time with email can use my TiVo with no problem. They'll be more scared of a DVD-R because they won't want to waste a blank DVD (yes, even if it's rewritable).
Free Mac Mini
Ford didn't invented the car and GE and Bell weren't the first in their businesses either, but like they say: "History is written by the winners..."
Sorry GameBoy, but the Atari Lynx, Sega GameGear, Sega Nomad and TurboGrafix16 are throwing you into the ash heap of history.
Oh wait!
when i see it.. nice try Microsoft.. how come they can predict the end of Tivo.. yet never saw the end of webTV, ultimateTV, and possibly the ?Xbox?.. Let's believe them for a second.. All Tivo has to do is roll out a less expensive unit ($150-$200 price range) and keep up with the times (how about an hdtv-compatible tivo in the coming years).. I think there's a good possibility that Tivo's will be around for a while..
I predict the end of Slate before the end of Tivo.
The difference between Canada and the USA is that in Canada healthcare is a right and gun ownership is a privilege.
you can get the box w/ a lifetime subscription for $250 more.
It's a lot up front, and I think they offer monthly for the sake of people who would rather buy a $400 box than a $650 one.
But as a happy TiVo subscriber, let me tell you this:
I would play twice the current $13/month for the TiVo service. It really is worth it!
/bin/fortune | slashdotsig.sh
Slate made a pretty big mistake in their analysis of why TiVo is going to fail. They mostly chalk it up to that "first mover" disadvantage that kills good products.
... which is now dead.
Only, TiVo wasn't the first mover. Panasonic was with the Showstopper
Some of the other tidbits are accurate, such as TiVo's difficulty in explaining what a "PVR" is, but that would be true of ANY device in the market. However, they really aren't trying to compare it to a VCR. The ads have always touted features VCRs just don't have, like the "Trick Play" features that come with having a Live TV "buffer".
There's also one other thing that they neglect to mention (probably because it didn't fit in the author's view), when they mention that other machines will have DVR capabilities too.
TiVo SERVICE is what makes the PVR so popular with TiVo customers. The hardware is all fine and dandy, but it's that software that is easy to use, and the features in it that make it special. TiVo's "Season Passes" can follow programs around when they switch time slots on the same channel. No other competitior can do that, and it's a godsend!
Regardless, TiVo is doing a lot of things right. They MAY go under, but it won't be for any other reason than the mass market just not being ready for it yet.
Honestly, I think their number one reason for failure will be the price of their product, and their insistence on pushing loads of services with it.
I know a lot of people who have been interested in it, but can't justify the price. I myself would really enjoy one because my work schedule makes it very difficult for me to catch shows. However, I don't like being forced to buy into a bunch of other stuff just to buy the product, and for what it does, I can't justify the price in my mind.
It's really just an example of consumer preference dictating the market... clearly the product is not placed in a position where the public needs it.
People who don't have a TiVo belong to at least one of these 3 groups:
* Can't afford it
* Don't know what it is
* Don't watch TV.
I believe the second group is by far the largest. To support TiVo, educate everybody you know about it. Hey, it's Linux based, it's really cool, and they actually perform - GASP, SHOCK! - usability testing.
You'll understand why this isn't a plug for MS, but an unbiased article on a site that just happens to be owned by MS.
And when you grow up and stop assuming everyone who is even mildly critical of your employer^H^H^H^H^H^H favorite software vendor isn't necessarilly a troll, perhaps you'll be able to ponder larger pictures and marketing strategies that go beyond a particlar brand item v. another to encompass an attempt at taking over an entire market v. another.
Hint: Microsoft's push toward DRM and Palladium has a lot more to gain by taking over the TiVo market than it does by taking over the playstation market. Why? Tivo is based upon open, non-DRM hardware and an open, GPLed operating system, while playstation is itself a proprietary player and, while it is a competitor, it does not stand in the way of Microsoft's DRM and Palladium strategies, despite having a GNU/Linux kit available for hobbiests. TiVo, on the other hand, as a widely adopted PVR that does use standard PC parts and a free operating system, does represent not only a potential barrier to Microsoft's DRM-and-Palladium-Ueber-Alles strategy, it has two other factors which the PS lacks:
1) Potentially a much larger marketplace than PS (nearly every household has a VCR, while many fewer have game consoles of any kind)
2) A legitimate competitor to whome consumers will flock if given a choice between that and a DRM/Palladium crippled alternative.
Many informed people believe the X-Box may well be a Palladium trial balloon and a test bed for emerging Microsoft DRM technology. If true, its use and penetration of the game console market is incidental compared to those qualities and the value they represent to Microsoft, and in that light it becomes clear that TiVo is a much more potent threat to Microsoft's plans than the playstation is likely to ever become. In which case, throwing a bone to the PS in an attempt to appear "neutral" (which is hardly likely of a Microsoft publication, any more than Linux Weekly is neutral when it posts a link to a pro-Linux article. Even more telling, this article was written by a Microsoft author, not merely linked to by a Microsoft site) costs them nothing in the persuit of their larger strategy.
The Future of Human Evolution: Autonomy
Doncha just hate to see good sound products have to struggle slowly up the market acceptance curve while various cruddy products get to be a lot more ubiquitous than they deserve? I do.
I own 2 TiVo's that I've upgraded so combined they hold about one third of terabyte of disk space. I love `em. My wife loves `em. I didn't mind shelling out the $500 for 2 lifetime subscriptions. I find the interface simple and intuitive. There are only minor inconveniences, like the plus and minus few minute automatic buffers on the ends of shows colliding in an non-intelligent way when shows on the same channel and type (eg, marathon sessions of back to back episodes).
I think you find astounding satisfaction with TiVo's from their owners.
At the same time, people outside the geek community are generally unaware of the entire concept of digital PVR and have never heard of a TiVo.
Word of mouth advertising is precious, but slow. It will be really interesting to see if TiVo gets enough growth in its customer base to bring it into profitability or (more likely) to where it gets bought out by some M&A hungry firm and the techy founders can retire wealthy and stop worrying about important but boring business issues. They desperately lack a big general advertising push. OTOH, one of the big selling points, speeding through commercials at 20x or 60x seems like it might raise a few eyebrows in the same advertising community!
I'm curious if TiVo's growth rate is increasing, whether there is any acceleration in TiVo's market.
"Provided by the management for your protection."
Last year TiVo spent almost nothing on advertising, and it's interesting why:
It turns out that MS was pumping millions into Ultimate TV advertising, and enthused customers were flocking to Circuit City and Good Guys, only to be told that they'd have to also get a satellite dish and service, regardless of what they already had.
Seeing their frustration, salespeople show them the TiVo, which works with whatever service they already have. Every dollar spent by Microsoft generated more TiVo revenue than UTV revenue...
Kevin Fox
The point isn't that PVR will fail -- just that the long term prognistics for this company aren't good.
I bought a PVR card for a pc. It sucks, the software is no good. But the card was $50. There's no reason why the software couldn't be good -- it just isn't. There are 3rd party apps that tie into tv listings just like TiVo does.
TiVo is nice, and they make it work, but you pay an awful lot for the storage space. TiVo is vulnerable to pressure from the big media companies, too, in a way that other solutions won't be. And I have to say that it's very nice to be able to record to Divx files that can be saved or shared.
I particularly liked the ad for a tivo i got at the bottom of a page predicting tivo's demise.
"Give someone a program, frustrate them for a day... Teach someone to program, frustrate them for a lifetime."
It wasn't long ago people were piling obscene
amounts of moneys on start ups because they might be the next microsoft. Now this joker (and I've heard it elsewhere lately) is saying that start ups are bad because they don't have the wisdom to compete in the big bad marketplace. Did all companies just spring forth from one big meta-company called Adam and Eve LLC while all of the start ups have failed?
OK, maybe I'm a little biased. I was a happy TiVo owner for almost a year -- until the modem broked. TiVo only offered a 60 or 90 day warranty, so I would have had to send them the box, wait a few weeks, and pay them at least $99 to repair it.
So I bought an Ultimate TV. Since MSFT was shutting down the division, you could get them for $99 including the dish and installation.
Plus, with the UltimateTV, I can record 2 shows at once, in original quality(including Dolby Digital).
The reason I say it should die is their service policy. The failing modem is an extremely common problem with the units (just read any TiVo board), and they fail to recognize it.
TiVo has a far superior and faster interface. Their service releases give great new and timesaving features, and they listen to user feedback and do usability. If it weren't for their lousy service, I would be their biggest advocate.
It's it's most basic ability. You're missing 90% of it's functionality if you don't subscribe to the schedule service. Since the sub is only £200 for the lifetime of the box, it's hardly a big deal.
Government of the people, by corporate executives, for corporate profits.
ReplayTV's latest units (the 4000 and 4500 series) take care of this. You connect them all to your home Ethernet and you can watch shows in the bedroom that you recorded in the living room. They even have enough CPU now to be streaming one show while you record another.
Replay has also added other features that TIVO doesn't have, like web-based scheduling without compromising the security of your home network, photo viewing and sending shows across the net.
Sorry to be such a blatant shill, but I've owned a ReplayTV for about 3 years now, and I think they're great. In many ways I think they are much nicer than TIVO. (I don't own stock in SonicBlue or even know anyone who works for them).
Where are all of TiVo's competitors? I don't see them. TiVo is the only company that offers what they offer in so far as I've seen.
They have a good name associated in the public's mind with excellence. Anyone who owns a TiVo will tell you its great. They also have excellent customer relations; refusing to cave in to he MPAA's demands and standing up for their customer's right to skip commercials endeared them to their customers.
I don't see TiVo failing anytime soon. Yes, they haven't made a profit...yet. Being realistic, its only a matter of time before such devices begin to become common-place. They'll be sold with TV's standard and in computers. And as that starts to hapen, TiVo will be the one who's products will be used for it. Why TiVo as opposed to MS' products? Because TiVo has a name associated with excellence, and a good reputation.
There is no such thing as first-comers disadvantage. Quite the opposite, there's a finder's reward for the company that comes up with an innovative and original idea or product. Eidos sold 30-million copies of Tomb Raider games (from their introduction till today) off of such a finder's reward, because no one else had a product which even compared.
There is, however, such a thing as a startup disadvantage, because you have nothing to fall back on and have to claw your way up from the bottom. TiVo may be an upstart, but they have a viable business model which will rake in plenty of money soon enough.
social sciences can never use experience to verify their statemen
If TIVO would go down I would instantly start up a business broadcasting the data TIVO customers need to keep their TIVO working.
Welcome to capitalism my friend.
Democrats or Republicans. They are both taking us to the same place and they are not afraid of us anymore.
Well, while repeating history is a weak argument by itself, are you certain that Nintendo, McDonald's, and WalMart were the first pioneers in there respective fields?
Being a geek, I remember Atari's home systems with fondness, which got stomped out by nintendo when the NES was released. The withered up to the Atari Jaguar, but the home console market clearly did not go to the pioneers. Nintendo was clearly not in the game from the beginning..... I don't know about the fast food or retail outlet histories, but I can tell you that Nintendo would be evidence to support, not detract from their argument.
XML is like violence. If it doesn't solve the problem, use more.
TiVo will fail because most people cannot understand what it it.
Most people fail to understand that what they see on the TV screen does not control what their VCR records.
Most people do not understand that when they dial the phone, a bunch of computers are digitizing their voice and routing it around, converting back to sound, and playing to the person they called.
Most people do not understand why the refridgerator gets cold inside.
Most people do not understand that modern "Analog" clocks are also digital.
Most people have no idea how a thermus knows when to stay hot and when to stay cold.
Most people in places where snow is uncommon do not understand that it makes the roads slick.
Most people pay for expensive water when it is free at water fountains everywhere.
Most people do not understand that the Coke in the can costs less then the can itself.
Most people don't understand what is wrong with Microsoft software.
Most people don't understand the difference between a surge protector and an outlet strip.
Most people (in the USA) don't vote.
Most people don't understand that silica is not edible.
Most people don't understand that they should not touch hot surfaces.
Most people don't understand that coffee is served hot, unless the word "iced" appears in front of it.
Most people don't understand the game of chess.
Ask Slashdot: Where bad ideas meet poor googling skills.
Microsoft? Someone? They're going to build it. Here's my picture of it.
The most elemental function is that of a DVR. It wraps a user interface around the whole home television experience. And once you control the user interface... (points over to The Book of Microsoft)
Now, people have a computer that, for the first time, is running 24x7 and they don't shut it off. They don't turn their DVRs off when they are done watching television. It is always on. All television commands (record this, channel up, etc) are received by the DVR, and then forwarded to other devices (DSS receiver) as needed.
Now, this DVR has a broadband input. How can we sell software and services? Answer: Game Console.
A game console you know has to have enough computing power (or at least graphics processing) to be pretty advanced. Add a decent hard drive. Know what the next step is?
Games-on-demand. Think Yahoo! Games on Demand. I actually tried this service, and I liked it. For $15 (I cancelled immediately after subscribing so I'd just have 30 days server), I am able to play 15 games up to a month.
How does it work? It downloads a good bulk of the game onto my local hard drive. Then, my hard drive works like a cacheing filesystem in front of an NFS filesystem. That is, the game runs off of the local hard drive cache, and anything not in the local cache is downloaded from the central server and placed in my local cache. For all my game knows, it is running off of the CD or a real filesystem on a real hard drive.
This means more revenue because now you don't have to trouble with the distribution of software over the shelves. Microsoft (or X company) is going to take off where the music industry has failed... online software distribution or rental, and for a nice profit.
You might add in some tangents. Video on demand is somewhat interesting. There could be a good market there... if done correctly. Various lifestyle 'services' (local weather maps available at the touch of a few buttons).
Of course, remember that this is all in a very friendly menu system of a video computing device... not a personal computer. It is wrapped up with a bow on top for the masses who want to play a game or watch tv, but not have to manage or figure out a personal computer.
So, I'll argue that TiVo could be at a disadvantage being a first mover. It has pioneered the DVR space. The DVR space is the very KEY to getting people to put an operating system on their television set. The problem is that TiVo doesn't have the muscle to fully leverage that position. (And why Microsoft competes in that territory.)
I bought the lifetime subscription for $199 on sale and folks, its worth every penny. People, if you don't have a Tivo, you CANNOT understand what all the fuss is about. Trust us. Get one. It Is Worth It. The lame ads about pausing live TV are stupid. TiVo is about sitting down once to program the thing - takes an hour pushing buttons on a simple menu - and then (1) you come home to things you want to watch (2) that you can watch whenever you want to (3) without commercials or (4) without worrying about setting up the programming for next week's stuff. This is FUN. TiVo mentally changes what you think about how to watch TV. You have to be nuts to channel surf or watch commercials after using a Tivo for just one week. Even my WIFE is sold on the TiVo. Just get one, you'll see!!!
The author of the article is saying, as far as I can tell, that TiVo as a company will fail because their hardware is in the market too soon. The author has failed to understand some basics of the TiVo business model.
First, licensing is not something that may save TiVo, it is one of the main focuses of their business. With partnerships with Sony, AT&T and DirecTV, and the technology in use in America, Asia and Europe, TiVo is well positioned to benefit from the continued rollout of this technology, not suffer from competition.
TiVo doesn't really make and sell the hardware, so they are not like the hardware based companies (Apple, Commodore) they are compared to in the article. Yes, they do subsidize the stand alone units, but standalone units (and competing standalone units like XBOX) are destined for the garbage heap. Integrating the technology into set top boxes (satellite/cable) and letting the service providers subsidize/support the equipment is the model that will succeed. This completely invalidates the authors arguments of complicated setup and being hard to sell in a retail establishment.
TiVo plays nicely with content providers. TiVo has gone out of their way to try to stay on the good side of the studio's IP lawyers. The clearest example is that it takes some intelligence to turn on 30-second skip; it is not enabled by default from the factory.
TiVo actively pursues other revenue sources. TiVo is using its service to deliver targeted advertising (Best Buy, Lexus).
Now, I am not saying that TiVo as a company will succeed in its current form (my crystal ball is at the cleaners), but if it fails it is not going to be because of some mythical disadvantage from being in the market first.
This is the one major misconception that non-TiVo owners always make. The fact that TiVo records the shows digitally isn't what makes it great. It's the fact that you tell it "record new episodes of Junkyard Wars" or "record all episodes of Barney" and it does it.
My family hasn't watched live TV since we got the TiVo. I don't even know what channels some of my shows are on. I just pull up a list of the shows TiVo has recorded and watch what I want. We watch TV when WE want to. If I want to kill some time, I see what TiVo has for me. I can pick-and-choose between shows I like, not whatever happens to be on.
It's really a change in viewing habits that you don't appreciate it until you've tried it. I think the best marketing strategy TiVo could ever try would be to give out TiVos free for a month or two and see how many people buy it instead of giving it back.
P.S. TiVo doesn't skip commercials, that's ReplayTV.
I just got digital cable with the PVR capability. Time Warner is using the Explorer 8000 from Scientific Atlanta. I had wanted a Tivo but had never got around to buying one. I had been hoping to see the functionality get integrated into the cable box. When they came out in my area, I ordered one.
From what I hear, the Tivo software is definitely better. The Explorer 8000 has some quirks. You can set it up to record all episodes of something from the interactive guide. At the end of watching the episode, you get asked if you want to delete the show. You do (since you watched it) and it deletes the scheduled recordings of the other episodes! Definitely not intuitive!
It does not have the thumbs up/down or some of the other nice Tivo features.
The advantages are:
1. The digital cable box rental is $5.95 per month. This is the same as regular digital cable boxes.
2. The PVR service is $10 per month (a little cheaper than Tivo).
3. There is no $299+ outlay for the box. If it dies, Time Warner replaces it. Yes, you would lose what you had taped.
4. No need to phone or ethernet hookup. The Guide is pulled in over the already attached cable connection.
While I am sure Tivo is better in many ways, I am happy with my digital cable box with PVR functionality.
I've had TiVo for almost three years, and it's crazy to compare it to a VCR. They are nothing alike, the quantitative difference between what they can do is so great that it becomes qualitative.
With TiVo, TV is no longer a time-oriented medium. You don't watch shows when they're on, you watch them when you want to. The only way time matters is that a new show is only available on or after a certain time. It's more like a webcast, or a magazine-type site like The Onion. You're not required to sit there in front of your computer at 6 AM Monday every week to watch the new update of The Onion. You can watch it any time you want, it's just that you know a new one is available on a regular basis. All of TV is that way once you have TiVo.
Of course TiVo isn't the only way to get this. You can use Replay, or Microsoft's new box, or with a lot more effort you can set up a computer to do it. Any of these will give you those improvements.
But whatever you do, don't make the mistake of thinking it's a VCR. It's not, it's a device that turns TV into something that's more like a subset of the web, in that you have instant access to many, many hours of content, whatever has been updated since you viewed it last.
The Newton failed becuase it sucked, not because it was first. :)
The handwriting recognition was incredibly bad.
The handwriting recognition was basically unusable. I know, I have one of the original models. From what I hear people say online, the later models were much better. I guess they just couldn't recover their image after nelson made fun of them on The Simpsons
A friend of mine has a Tivo and aboslutely loves it. There's a big difference from being the first one to put out a shitty product and being to first one to put out a product that gets rave reviews from its owners.
Life is too short to proofread.
I think the author made a few mistakes on his article.
1. It is not true that being first on a new market usually leads to failure (the author seems to imply that). Exactly the opposite, history has shown once and again that being first is most of the time to your advantage, and most of the time leads to success. Is this the case with TiVo? Judge by yourself
2. The author of the article gave a bad example with the Amiga. What killed the Amiga was not the industry or the users or the competition, it was Commodore itself. It had the most awful marketing department in the world (and this is an understatement).
3. The newton's failure was not being first, but being over-engineered to an excessive cost (the author does imply something to this respect). The market was not prepared for such an expensive and large unit at that time.
"Select" "Play" "Select" "3" "0" "Select"
You'll hear three "Tivo Tones" letting you know that the command has been accepted. You can disable the feature by entering the same sequence.
For those that would die defending it, Freedom
has a sweet taste that the protected will never know.
See also Telephone, Television, Electricity... Just because a product is first to market (or in this case, defining a market) does not mean it is doomed to failure. If you look at the companies that have invested in Tivo, you see that they'll survive (even if that means they are simply acquired). They have a best-of-breed product, a regonizable brand, and the market that they have defined is set to explode.
You've heard the song... 500 channels and there's nothing on.
Really, the problem isn't that there isn't anything on. The problem is that there's so much on, that it becomes increasingly impossible to filter the noise, and find that which is truly appealing to you, the viewer.
Tivo makes this possible. You don't tell it what time you want to record something. You tell it what show to record, regardless of when it is on. You tell it what genres you like, what actors you prefer, what directors meet your expectations. It does the rest.
You can not appreciate how this device will transform your relationship with television. It makes television useful, and entertaining, and it does this by catering to you, as an individual, rather than by allowing a television network to pour some target demographics into the plot generation device so that the program hits all of the right population segments.
I'm no longer "White males, 25 - 35, with a household income between X and Y."
Since I got Tivo, now I'm just me, and I watch the shows that appeal to me, and I watch them when my schedule allows me to.
For those that would die defending it, Freedom
has a sweet taste that the protected will never know.
Want to watch a football but don't want to spend the nice afternoon? Record it and watch it that evening in one hour (I know it's not the same but if you want to watch pure football, it's the fastest option).
I ran across this article that shows how someone put together their own TIVO for fairly cheaply (if you don't want to drop as much money on a tivo or replayTV). Personally, I think there are more ways to cut corners on his PVR to further drop the price but it's a good attempt--especially with the software that he chose.