Geoprofiling Moves Into The Limelight

circletimessquare writes "Interesting and timely. A short piece at CNN talks about the software helping to track down the sniper currently terrorizing the Washington DC area. It was the doctoral thesis of a cop, Kim Rossmo, who developed it while walking the beat in Vancouver and reading about the hunting patterns of African lions. Googling, I found an older but deeper piece which mentions more of the tech behind the software, called Rigel. That led me to the website of ECRI, the company that makes Rigel. More good tech there."

Comments

saw this on TLC

[twiggy]

There was a great special on this software on TLC not that long ago. Basically, they were able to calculate the odds of the suspect living and/or acting in a certain area based on where the crimes were, etc.

They ended up catching the killer, and he was a cop!

From discussions I'm seeing about these shootings, it may very well be a cop or someone in the armed forces. The ballistics of the gun/ammo being used just don't fit right since people are saying they don't hear the shots, or don't hear very loud shots, so people are theorizing that there's special subsonic rounds being used to minimize noise - not easy to find with these types of bullets, from what I gather.. But I dont' know a lot about guns, so.. yeah...

Anyhow if I remember the name of the TLC special I'll post it here, it was on recently enough that it will probably be on again soon.

Re:saw this on TLC

[Happy go Lucky]

From discussions I'm seeing about these shootings, it may very well be a cop or someone in the armed forces. The ballistics of the gun/ammo being used just don't fit right since people are saying they don't hear the shots, or don't hear very loud shots, so people are theorizing that there's special subsonic rounds being used to minimize noise - not easy to find with these types of bullets, from what I gather..

Easy enough to make, though. It's not uncommon for hunters or competitive shooters to load their own ammunition at home. To make a slower bullet, just use less powder. (Okay, it's a tiny bit more complex than that, but you see the general idea.)

Also, it's not hard to mistake the sound of a gunshot for something else, and especially not in an urban area. A month or so ago, I took a complaint of a guy whose truck had been shot. With some sort of .30-caliber solid-construction bullet, original weight above 200 grains, and probably faster than 2700 feet per second from the muzzle based upon the deformation. If you don't know what that means, that's a damn loud round. I try and shoot an elk with a round like that every year, and thank god for Peltor earmuffs. Anyway, almost nobody in the neighborhood remembers a gunshot. However, everybody remembers a car backfiring fairly loudly. Coincidence? Maybe, but I don't believe in them.

So, you see where I'm going with this? It's easy to mistake the sound of a gunshot for something else if you don't know much about them. I'm going to take a stab in the dark and guess that people in an area where private firearm ownership is almost nonexistant (like much of the DC area) may not know what they did or didn't hear.

Ruining the Model

[Anonymous Coward]

Doesn't awareness of the geoprofiling model by the suspect make the model less accurate, or is there something built into it that takes this into account?

Will it work when everybody knows...

[f97tosc]

Clearly the principles of the software are very sound - and the product has been used successfully in the past.

However, now media is writing extensively about the software and the algorithms involved. A shrewd killer could use such information. He could think again about where to act, perhaps selecting sites at random, or selectively so that they would mislead the program.

Tor

But what if the sniper has the software too?

[Anonymous Coward]

Could he profile himself and then know where NOT to go to find his next victims?

Re:Sound cool but

[UniverseIsADoughnut]

problem is true random ness is not possable. He/she could be following a pattern without being aware of it. And if the sniper is trying to be random probably in doing so is causing a pattern. Humans are way to predictable over a period of time.

pretty much any random way you could come up with of doing what he is doing could leave a pattern that someone would see.

though with that said even when you have a pattern going it's still really hard to refine to being able to knock on his door or no his next move.

Hmmm, maybe it was seeing Red Dragon

[sielwolf]

But I've been thinking of Lecter's advice to Clarice in Silence of the Lambs: this looks a little too random.

Ever since I first saw the movie I've always wondered how often that is the case: serial criminals who commit the first crime locally, realize it, and then make a point of trying to be "random".

This entire scenario it doesn't look like the case: the first and fifth shooting were very close together and the entire field of action seems to be very localized. But still these sort of things always make me think of that quote. Guess because it was so imporant in the movie.

sniper anagrams

[recalci]

The DC sniper left a "Death" tarot card with the words:

"Dear Policeman, I am God"

written on it.

Some anagrams for "dear policeman i am god"

go and implode America
Laden doom pig America
impaled good American
magic doomed airplane
megalomaniac drop die
an imperial dogma code
good, an epidemic alarm

Some anagrams for "dear policeman i am god death"

imperial hated and good came
imperial death and good came
I'm a degraded emotional chap
I'm delegated macho paranoid
homicidal dead eager top man
Peter, a homicidal dead man go
dead homicidal game not rape

You mean Mini14

[Wee]

That's a real small bullet, about as big as a .22 we all grew up with. In order for it to be lethal, it needs to be shot at about 1000 mps (Mach 3 ish).

For anyone curious, the .223 is about the same diameter as a .22 LR, but there the similarity ends. The .223 weighs in between 50 and 64 grains and travels at 2700-3300 fps. I think the .223 NATO round is 55 grains and moves at like 3100 fps. A .22 LR is 40 grains and travels at around 1050 fps. I might be a little off in my numbers, so don't quote me. The two are night and day as far as lethality and ballistics go, however.

It's probably a disaffected, over intellectual loner in high school or college with an M-14 or a bolt action .223 hunting rifle with a scope, who's taking out his feeling of inadequacy and powerlessness against random people. Needless to say, he's never been laid, either.

The M14 is .308, not .223. You mean a Mini14.

But I get your point. Feet first into the mulcher is too good a fate for this ass clown. Shooting old men and children and women. In the back. I'm having a hard time coming up with suitable retribution...

-B

Re: You mean Mini14

[Black Parrot]

> Feet first into the mulcher is too good a fate for this ass clown. Shooting old men and children and women. In the back. I'm having a hard time coming up with suitable retribution...

I'd go for ordinary imprisonment. Sure, this and lots of other crimes merit worse, but unfortunately our "justice" system is actually a "conviction" system, and doesn't appear to be batting too high an average on hanging the right guy.

Re:You mean Mini14

[Hieronymous Cowherd]

Actually, yes, they are, by those of us who shoot competitively. The silly '92 gun ban made several inexpensive rifles used to get started in competitive shooting into high-priced collectors' items.

Please define "high powered sniper rifle". Differentiate from "hunting rifle" or "varmint rifle" or "target shooting rifle". Please be very specific.

If you've noticed how badly-written laws about technology are, they've got nothing on the labyrinthine morass of laws that cover firearms ownership.

Re:You mean Mini14

[EricTheMad]

I think the .223 NATO round is 55 grains and moves at like 3100 fps. That's the old round. The one that is currently in use is 62 grains. The 55 grain round spins when it enters the target. This increases the lethality of the round. The 7 grain increase was made to cut down on the spin. The idea being to wound the target instead of kill. While at first glance it may seem like a bad idea, it actually makes a lot of sense. It is, as Baldric would say, "a cunning plan". The theory behind it is this: If you kill the target, you've removed one soldier from the battle. But if you only wound your target, you've taken at least two people out of the battle. Your target and his buddy, who now has to take care of him.

Kim Rossmo

[Anonymous Coward]

Kim Rossmo was also one of the first to suggest vancouver had a serial killer [robert pickton,pig farmer],which the VPD dissmissed promptly.The VPD also drummed Rossmo out via the old boys network because of interdept politics/powerplays.

Some background on this guy....

[puppetman]

I live in Vancouver, where Kim Rossmo got his Ph.d and started his geoprofiling.

He was very successful, and it led to his rapid advancement in the Vancouver Police Department. But like most police departments, it's still old-boys, and alot of them resented an educated individual rising through the ranks so quickly.

Finally, they told him they weren't extending his contract when he was promoted too far. He sued. During the trial, the senior VPD members were made to look like fools for lying under oath.

One of the interesting things that came out was that he suspected (back in June, 2001) that a serial killer was involved in the disappearance of 20 to 30 Vancouver women. Well, he was right. The Vancouver police are conducting a huge investigation at a pig farm in the Vancouver area, and Robert William Pickton is now Canada's most prolific known serial killer with 16 or so charges in the works, and more pending as they find more DNA at the farm.

I don't know much about the technology (or psychology) involved, but I do know that when he applied his software to some of Canada's other serial killers (Paul Bernardo, Cliffard Olsen, etc) his software picked a 4-block area which included the killer's home. It was also used to catch a killer in Abbotsford.

Thanks to a bunch of fat old men who's ego has extended past their intelligence, Vancouver has lost what appears to be a top-rate talent.

Re:Sound cool but

[ReconRich]

what if the guy your trying to track is a complete nutcase
Well, I'd say he's certainly some kind of nutcase. Examination of his method, however, reveals a few interesting things. First, he acts like a military sniper; that is he selects a target, takes 1 shot, and then (presumably) leaves his position, taking everything (like shell casings) with him. In other words, all the work is in preparing his site, and leaving it. The actual shooting doesn't take much time or effort. Second is his selection of target. It appears to be random, although shooting a kid going to school could be designed to cause fear. Its almost as if the target is secondary to the location; this nutball may be picking sites from which he thinks he can get someone, and then killing whoever shows up. If this is the case, this location software may be just the thing; on the other hand, his criteria for picking a site might not have anything to do with where he lives. Anyway, I hope they catch this bastard soon, and I really don't care how they do it.
-- Rich

If I was an investigator....

[mao che minh]

...I would select 10 of the USMC's and Army's best snipers, give them intel of the area, and let them hunt the sniper down. Skilled and experienced snipers should theorectically be able to deduce the most favorable target locations - geography-wise any ways. You let these 10 snipers scope out the most favorable areas in the DC and Maryland area and camp them.

Bzzzt! So sorry, let's meet our next contestant...

[PizzaFace]

OK, so I'm a sucker for an AC Troll, but I have to reply:

I live near these shootings. As I type, I hear a police helicopter overhead. My kids complain about not having outdoor recess at school. When I run an errand, I scan the perimeter of the parking lot before getting out of the car, and then jog to the door. But at least I'm not paranoid!

It's not a government plot to stir up anti-Iraq rage because (1) these daylight suburban shootings are too risky for a plot that would need to avoid detection at all costs; (2) the public has had no reason to think that the sniper attacks are related to terrorism, let alone to Iraq (unlike the anthrax attacks of last winter, which apparently were the work of a right-wing kook who wanted to look like an axis-of-evil terrorist); (3) the government has evil elements, but not THAT evil - not hunting rifles against children.

Until less than 24 hours ago, I thought the sniper was probably an Al Qaeda terrorist. No, he hadn't made political demands, but neither did the September 11 hijackers. Far from causing me to favor war against Iraq, though, the prospect of terrorism reminded me that we'll face much more of it if we continue to make war in the Middle East (for no very good reason).

Anyway, the tarot card seems to dispose of my terrorism theory, as well as your government-plot-posing-as-terrorism theory.

Re:This is scary

[MartinB]

Shows what you know. The following is based on real analysis, carried out in the UK by a major supermarket.

Basket analysis shows that for stores in Joe's area, there's a certain tendency for people to buy beer and nappies (diapers) together. This sparks some qualitative research, and they discover that it's largely because of men sent out to buy nappies also buy beer to reward themselves.

So as an experiment, the supermarket's store manager places some high-profit brands of nappies next to the beer section. Sales go up, and not only that, more profitable sales go up. Store manager gets a big bonus.

Next, the supermarket expands the test to neighbourhoods of similar socio-demographic profile to the first one. Sales of high-profit brands go up nationwide, because retail behaviour has a strong correlation to socio-demographic profile. That's the GIS bit - which doesn't actually need tying into individual consumers.

Even if total sales of nappies don't increase, the sales of specific brands does. This gives the supermarket leverage with nappy manufacturers to extract fees for putting their brands next to the beer section. (Incidentally, many manufacturers don't know exactly how much they're shelling out in promotional costs... which can lead to big holes in their account - as happened to Bulmers recently - 3m+ spent without anyone noticing)

So while total sales doesn't change, profit does, because there's additional profit from the high-margin brands, and additional shelving fees from the manufacturers.

And that's just one category... most supermarkets have several thousand categories. Profit doesn't have to increase 100% year on year - double digit is fine, especially in the current climate.