Slashdot Mirror
Cringley Asking for 12 Month Predictions
sckienle writes "Robert X. Cringely is asking in his pulpit this week for help in determining what's going to happen in the tech industry in the next 12 months." I expect that robots will take over the world, and openly hunt humans in a post apocolyptic landscape. This will occur in January. For the rest of the year, technology will take a vacation.
Anybody with any real insight into the technology of the coming year won't post it to Cringley or Slashdot, they'll run out and get a patent.
Join the fun! patent the obvious next step and sue, sue, sue!
m00.
Developers Developers Developers
Maybe we should patent the idea of sueing and the sue everyone for stealing our idea!!!
Not surprising. My new robot is already chasing my cat around the living room.
The tech world was shattered today by the news that two members of the open source weblog Slashdot hooked up at a slashdot.meetup.com meeting.
Anonymously speaking, the female slashddotter was surprised that the two had so much in common "He likes anime, and thought I looked so good in my Sailor Moon cosplay, I was charmed. I was so charmed, he charmed me out of that suit later that night, giggle".
The male slashdotter commented "Well, I was 23 and a virgin, and spending the night recompiling RedHat 8.0 did not appeal to me. I was sure about *****, she was a little chunky, but when I saw that she came out of the ladies room, and not the mens, I knew she was a real women. I think we'll have sex again."
Prior Art
in the next 12 months, I predict
1) Fully functional computerized Voting (e-chad)
2) Linux on the desktop!
3) IIS releases a fully secure, bug-free version!
4) BEOS Makes a stunning comeback!
5) Bionics are introduced widely(and banned by the NFL, MLB still pending)
6) The DMCA is overturned in the supreme court!
7) BLOG's widely viewed as the thing to go on the 'net
8) AOL Version 9, 10, 11, and 12
9) Apple releases the new iMac - in new scratch n' sniff colors
10) Slashdot wins pulitzer prize for news journalism!
I am the lord of the pun. Dance Knave!
I expect that robots will take over the world, and openly hunt humans in a post apocolyptic landscape.
Yes, but only as retribution for the unrelenting barrage of spelling errors.
The theory of relativity doesn't work right in Arkansas.
We will continue our efforts to supplant staples, but glue will continue to be a stong player.
Oh sorry, I thought you said tack industry.
Best Windows Freeware
I expect that robots will take over the world...
Fool. Everyone knows that it is really tornados that will take over the world.
Warning: Persons denying the existance of tornados may in fact be tornados themselves.
It hurts when I pee.
Japanese toilet technology will advance to the point that nobody has a reason for ever leaving. Weeks later, people will start asking, "Hey, have you seen the Japanese lately?".
I can't find an exact transcript on the web, so I have to paraphrase the "Space" episode of News Radio. See, 'cause robots had taken over the world while Joe was in hibernation... and the baseball... ha! That show cracks me up.
I write in my journal
"Stephen King dead at 54" trolls will need to be updated to "... dead at 55"
"BSD is dying" posts will continue unaltered.
Why do I see M. Butterfly II written all over this?
Everyone will continue to not really care.
Who moderates the meta-moderators?
Is your company doing especially well? Are there sectors that are especially exciting, where products are bubbling to the surface and companies feel like they are about to show the world just how good they are? Tell me about it.
Translation:
My portfolio isn't doing so well. Anybody mind helping me out here?
I'm still waiting for my Flying Car from the year 2000..
Trolling is a art,
And pigs will be seen circling overhead.
Best Slashdot Co
It might happen after someone at slashdot posts information that Usenet is 95% warez/movies! Thanks for notifying the evil doers, buddy.
If you had nuts on your chin, would they be chin nuts?
1) In a surprise move, the Taliban will announce its hostile takeover of the Disney corporation. The company's long-standing "no facial hair" policy will be replaced by a "mandatory beard" policy and animators will immediately commence work on a new flagship character, Mullah Mouse.
2) Nevada, Arizona and British Columbia will all pass legislation legalizing marijuana, prompting Bush to name them as part of the "axis of evil" and authorize a retaliatory nuclear strike.
3) RIAA will introduce a surgical throat implant that that causes people to gag and choke when they try to hum or sing copyrighted music. Marketing the device as the "iMusicFreedomSexChoicePod," they will offer it through major chain stores for $99 for a limited time only, while supplies last. After November, the price will increase to $399.
and, finally
4) Sometime in August, independent polls will indicate that Slashdot's daily readership has surpassed that of the New York Times, Washington Post and USA Today combined. In response to this market pressure, all major print dailies will target a 1st grade reading level. Headlines such as "Lame Senator Says He's Rubber, Opponent Is Glue" and "Superfund Site Smells Like Total Ass" will abound.
Then I predict that in 13 months the MPAA will release a lawsuit so mighty that Apple becomes a subsidiary of Vivendi Entertainment.
There's a story from a while back:
Tomorrow, Cray (or whoever) could come out with a portable computer that has 30x the performance of any desktop PC. It would cost $500, with a flat planel screen capable of 4096x3072 pixels, yet it could still fit in your pocket. It would run on AA batteries for hours and hours, perfectly recognize handwriting and voice, and have wireless broadband anywhere in the world for FREE.
First question about it? "DOES IT RUN WINDOWS?"
But I can tell you what WON'T happen.
Bluetooth will still be that great technology just around the corner that hardly anyone has an example of.
Cell phones will still not be good at browsing the web or reading e-mail.
Linux won't be the dominant force on the desktop (not for a few years at least).
The United States won't be finished with the job of restoring order in Afghanistan or Iraq.
PC's won't have a decent memory subsystem that can keep up with the CPU's.
The record companies won't have a good solution for distributing music on the Internet. Neither will movie companies.
Robots will not take over the world.
The fast/good/cheap trilemma will not be solved with technology.
Microsoft will still have a bunch of security holes in their OS. So will most distributions of Linux. OpenBSD will not.
NASA will not be able to keep their launch schedule.
The new Matrix movie will not live up to the hype, but it'll still be really good.
OK, to announce one thing that WILL happen in 2003: The Supreme Court will undo the Sonny Bono copyright law. Micky Mouse will be free!
Get your stinking paws off me you damn dirty ape
In today's news....
Bacteria, engineered by the US Army to clean up oil spills, have infected a major oil deposit in Iraq. After being released in the War Against Evil (TM), the bacteria quickly spread out of control. Experts estimate that within two years, the bacteria will have infected oil wells throughout the middle east, consuming about half of the oil reserves in the region, or, in other words, 30% of the world's known oil reserves.
----
Not to be confused with Col.
- We will all drive coldfusion-powered flying cars.
- Most of us will have robot butlers.
- Most personal computers will run a PowerPC version of AmigaOS or OS/2.
- We will all have video-phones.
- We will wear shiny foil-like clothing.
- We will all be united under a single worldwide benevolent government where the administrators do not ever use their power for their own personal gain. (This was made possible by technology.)
- We will all work about 3 hours per week, in order to produce enough wealth to survive happily. Mostly, "work" consists of telling robots what you want done.
You just wait, and you'll see all this soon.Steve Ballmer will leave Microsoft to join the circus sideshow, as the only man who can put his foot in his mouth while his head is still up his ass. The Circus will generate billions of revenue, while Microsoft will be forced to have Craig Mundie scream "I Love This Company!" at this years COMDEX.
There will be at least a dozen more Outlook Worms infecting the Internet. People's Inboxes will become so flooded with viruses, that millions will quit using email all together. With the loss of a huge potential market, companies selling weightless, pumpless penis enhancement devices will go out of business, and millions of dollars will still be tied up in Nigerian banks while the King's widow lives in poverty.
Hundreds of people will be arrested for printing paychecks on their computer and trying to cash them at a bank.
The RIAA will create another method to prevent people from copying CD's, this one will be defeatable by a common stapler.
The RIAA will reveal that Hilary Rosen has actually been dead for 5 years, that they've just been propping her up "Weekend at Bernie's" style.
Scott McNealy will release several press releases over the next year bashing Microsoft.
That, and because Usenet is a lousy method of distributing binaries. ...
I think that Usenet is indeed on the RIAA's radar screen, but they can't move against it until their reposts show up
Microsoft?
will make an existing product smaller,
So, then, not Microsoft.
and double the number of features...
Yes, then, stop teasing me, it is Microsoft Office!
for 90% of the current price.
Ah, so it's not Microsoft after all.
I also predict that 99% of the people that BUY that product will be unaware that those features exist and consequently not use them.
Now, come on, that's GOT to be Microsoft Office!
I preduct the people least likely to use those features will buy that product because 'It's pretty'.
Oh, wait, it's Apple.
> I think someone evil is finally going to notice that Usenet is 95% warez/moviez
.. but clearly the Usenet is 86% pr0n .. somethings not adding up here.
Hrm, 95% warez/movies
"Old man yells at systemd"
duke nukem forever
Flat panels prices will drop enough to finally make them outpace CRT sales.
Macs will have a G5 chip but it won't be as cool as current hype; barely breaks 2GHz.
Adobe finally ships font management software towards the third Q. Quark 6 upgrade only $800.00.
Tablet Mac (codename Frank-n-furter) is unveiled. Jobs insists it's not a decendent of Newton (NIWIETCS-Not Invented When I Ran The Company Syndrom).
Firewire based A/V hub (80GB HD, enhanced iTunes control s/w, bluetooth speakers) showcased (but not released yet) that works with Sony iLink VCR, DVD player, Receiver/amp, TV, etc.
Lucas tries to push digital theater use by releasing two versions of SWIII. The digital one has Natalie Portman FFN scene (after she's genetically altered to a Hut).
I drank what? -- Socrates
Two big predictions for 12 months:
1) Cell Phone "camming" will become a rage among teenagers, who mainly use it to flash each other. Sprint (under CDMA2000) will benefit greatly from this.
2) A quantum computer will be built using a 2D array of hundreds of quantum dots using Si or GaAs. The theory is there today, all that remains is an efficient read of electron spins. The machine will factor a number in the range of 2^16, which will look much more interesting than IBM's factoring of 14 or whatever.
- nuclear-powered cars
- daily commuting by personal helicopter
- lunar colonies
- human control over the weather
- automated-houses with a robot butler
Dam it! I've been predicting this stuff will happen since the 1950's and I just know this is going to be the year!And the more viable that home disto becomes, more and more Slashdotters will move to BSD to keep their l33t status. BSD stories will dominate Slashdot as Linux is denounced as an evil movement bent on world domination.
Here's how I responded to The /. artice about the Cringely preditions last year:
Slashdot will link to every article written by Bob Cringely in 2002. Bob Cringely will start writing for Slashdot, under a level two pseudonym. This post will receive a +5 funny.
Sadly, I was wrong about the third prediction. The second? Hard to say.
I predict that quite a few of us will spend the year counting down to the day the third Lord of the Rings movie is released.
Interspersed with shark-like feeding frenzies on any server that posts new trailers for it.
In fact, IBM, begin pushing Python as a primary language, will try Haskell in same way as they try Python today secondary after Java. IBM will even create a partnership with Microsoft to develop Haskel#. At the same, time Ericson competitors will try Oz and Mercury.
Of course, Web Sphere will die in its current Java- based shape - perhaps IBM will adapt the best Web Sphere ideas and libraries on atop of Zope. Will it be called Zope Sphere? I don't know yet, but I sure IBM will design either EPC (Enterprise Python Containers, sort of EJB) or PINE (Python Inter-Network Environment, sort of JINI). Jython will be very popular in a path of migration from EJB and JINI.
Both Oracle and IBM, suffuring from over-patched proprietary source code, will try to adapt PostgreSQL implementation ideas in Oracle whatever-i and in DB/2. Will it be the war for PostgreSQL? I am not sure. But I know that Microsoft will not be there until they repeate after Apple and adapt BSD for the next generation of Windows (will it be named TNG?), breaking out from Intel boundaries and turning more Linux users to MS BSD campus.
By the way, IBM will anonunce "no new AIX releases any more" and release IBM Linux/PPC based on Gentoo. Red Hat will be de-listed from the stock exchange. Sun will adapt Suse and consider it instead of Solaris. HPQ will adapt Debian for all HP-Compaq-DEC zoo. The war between Linux and BSD fanatics will become the war between IBM/Sun/HPQ camp and MS/Apple camp. Did I mention that Apple will establish a consortium "Proprietary BSD"?
DOJ will require to open the documentation for all file formats which are used to exchange documents between customers of public available software products. In its own turn Microsoft will anounce full support of Open Office [XML] file format.
After AOL will switch most of users to Mozilla, the top fun in Open Source Community will shift to X-Smile - new legacy-free XML browser. Mozilla developers will disclose that their code is too heavy and too hardcoded to support pure XML content different from HTML based scenarios.
PGP will be saved by governments. Perhaps.
Less is more !
These are the InfoWorld Robert X. Cringely's predictions, who isn't the same Cringely that does things for PBS. That Cringely is actually Mark C. Stephens [blancmange.net], who took the pen name with him when he left InfoWorld in 1995.
"I am not Robert X. Cringley," he said. "My name is Ryan. I inherited this column from the previous Robert X. Cringley, just as you will inherit it from me. The man I inherited it from was not the real Robert X. Cringley, either. His name was Cummerbund. The real Cringley has been retired fifteen years and living like a king in Patagonia."
I like my women like my coffee... pale and bitter.
1. People on slashdot will continue to complain about Apple mice shipping with one button, claiming that a $10 investment is all that stands between them and Mac OS X.
2. John Dvorak will continue to bash Apple for not shipping machines with floppy drives, failing to admit that he emails any file smaller than 1.5 MB anyway.
3. Some (self proclaimed) tech pundit will claim that despite Apple's insistence (and the agreement of 20 million users), process $FOO could not possibly be that easy. He will have no evidence to back this up, having never actually used a mac.
3. Mac OS X will continue to get rave reviews and many slashdotters will switch (some will hate it, in all fairness)...yet somehow the Mac-using percentage of the population will continue to drop.
4. People will still think Microsoft owns Apple.
5. Steve Jobs will finally give Bill Gates "The Birdie (TM)" on national TV.
6. Apple will flawlessly integrate bluetooth into its system ala Airport, finally proving that bluetooth enabled hard drives are STUPID.
The New Amiga will be released and overtake the world.