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Star Wars Producer Says Box Office is Doomed
Cutriss writes "Seen at CNN, this article interviews Rick McCallum, longtime producer at LucasFilms. McCallum says that DVDs will be responsible for the downfall of the movie industry *without* taking piracy into account, due to the fact that people think the home theatre experience is just as good, or better than the big screens, and they know that in five months, the DVD will be out on the market. Of course, his claim that "studios are barely breaking even" falls on deaf ears when I hear about 9-digit salaries for individual actors in a big-name film that's just some rehash of an old concept. He also mentions, of course, that DVD piracy and movie "sharing" groups will only speed up the cycle, and that they'll be putting Hollywood out of business, possibly within the next three years."
It doesn't matter to me. If I go to see the movie at the cinema on cheap night, it's 5-7 bucks. If I wait 5 months to rent it and watch it on my 20 year old TV and VCR, it's still 5-6 bucks... so why would I wait? I wouldn't.
Sure, the chump with $20,000 home theatre could wait, but obviously, money isn't a big factor in his decision.
Personally, I enjoy a night at the movies, but I also enjoy snuggling up at home to a movie with the girlfriend... I think both will be around for a while, personally.
I'm sure someone said similar things when VHS was introduced.
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Some weasel took the cork out of my lunch.
VHS/Beta were supposed to be the downfall of theaters because people would be able to watch movies at home. This guy is saying the same thing. Personally, I think there will be a market for theaters until someone invents a home system that has a 40' (or whatever size the movie screens are) screen, overpriced popcorn and other people in the room to cheer/boo/talk loudly throughout the film. Movies are a technological (big screen, obscenely expensive sound system, etc.) and social (crowds, etc) event.
Then, once they go out of business, perhaps people that are interested in making good movies rather than huge incomes will start making movies.
And oh, here's a thought...who forces them to release a DVD in 6mo's??? Seems like they could delay the release of alternate distributions indefinately. Don't think so? Go ask Disney. They did it for a VERY long time.
If it's such a risk...release alternate media 1 or 2 years after the movie comes out.
Wow. That was hard to think of wasn't it. Perhaps if he stopped thinking about his next big rip-off-money-making-flick, such an obvious concept would be obvious to him too.
What was his point again...
This is just a ploy to use the recent outcry over pirating as a wedge to push digital projectors and THX approved sound systems in theaters. Remember the toll free number given out for the SW trilogy re-release to report theaters with substandard equipment?
Pretty sneaky!
Well, when a DVD I own permenantly costs ~$20 and a movie I see once costs ~$12.00 I have to agree that the Box office will die (if it does not change).
Anyway, my seats are comfier (no seat kickers), I can adjust my audio levels to match the film I'm watching and the drunk guy making a nuisance of himself is me!
crazy dynamite monkey
Personally, it wouldn't bother me a bit if the Big Studios all died. What the hell have they given us in the last few years? "Charlies Angels", "Scooby Doo", "The Tuxedo", "The Fast and The Furious", "The Quick And The Dead", "Jaws 3D", "Godzilla", etc... Who's going to miss that drek?
The basic fact of the matter is that these companies have fossilized. It's time for new blood.
Boobies never hurt anyone. - Sherry Glaser.
This from a man who's only produced 3 movies in the past 10 years (Episode 1 and 2 being two of the three) and who only seems to produce LucasArts projects.
I don't think anyone at Lucas has a grasp on what people want, with pushing digital projectors, producing bad video games and even worse movies.
McCallum proves that point with even the first two statements in the article...
1. "McCallum feels that the experience of watching the movie on DVD is superior to most movie theaters"
I don't know anyone that prefers to see things at home, I still hear 'its a film you need to see on the big screen' from a bunch of people all the time (not to mention most movies worth watching don't play at your major movie theaters). It's just the fact most movies aren't worth seeing or paying to see (ala no different then the music industry right now)
2. He blames DVD for "why young people aren't going to the same movie five or six times a la 'Titanic.'"
Its not DVD, its most movies don't have the appeal. I saw the Matrix a few times in the theater since it actually had some depth to it and was worth watching a few times. Of course I don't know a lot of people that saw Titanic more then once but I'm guessing a lot girlfriends dragged their boyfriends to it (poor souls).
Don't blame DVD, wake up and blame your crappy movies. People aren't going to see Episode I and II a bunch of times because they sucked and aren't worth watching over and over, not because it's coming out on DVD in a few months...
Furthermore, people will STILL go to the movies as a social event, it's something to do with friends, it's an experience, and most people just don't have home theater equipment that comes close to that yet, until we all get InFocus-style LCD projectors for our living rooms. Oh yeah, and if you want us to come to the theater, consider that just maybe 10 bucks+ a person, not including snacks and soda is a little outrageous - when I was a kid, I remember it was 4-5 dollars, and I'm only 23. Price has gone up substantially faster than inflation, and the quality of most major studio releases has gone down. Hmmm....
I don't know about you, but the last few DVDs I bought have this 5 minute mandatory intro on them that plays before it gets to the main menu. The skip buttons are disabled during this thing, so you have to basically stop the DVD and then press play to get past the damn thing. I'm sure that this will be where trailers and teasers will be placed next.
And to add to whatever list is building, I'm kind of getting tired of the damn teenage kids running into the theater and screaming to their friends from the wings and then running out. WTF is with this? I never did this when I hung out at the theater as a kid, and I don't remember any other fellow-annoying teenagers doing this either.
Another point to add to the negative theater experience is that it is impossible for parents with babies to go to the movies. While there are ways of going without the baby, sometimes those options just aren't available. We decided for the price of a movie, we could go out and buy two thick steaks and a new DVD and just barbecue at home. Nice dinner, a movie, and we don't need a sitter and we can watch the movie again if we like.
and who exactly releases the movies on DVD?
If Hollywood thought that the DVD business was cutting into their market then they just have to release the DVD version at a later date, simple...
Gimme a break! This is just a doomsayer trying to get people to go to the theaters to get their numbers up (read profit).
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Couldn't something like IMAX restore the cinema's advantage over television? Even the real early adopters don't have an IMAX screen in their living room. A pity that more films aren't made in a suitable large-screen format.
-- Ed Avis ed@membled.com
So the movie industry isn't making money off of all those DVD sales? If they aren't, they are doing something really wrong. If they are, well, it shouldn't be the end of the movie industry then. Perhaps just a rearanging of priorities.
Science may someday discover what faith has always known.
Or use Free DVD playing software. ogle works well, and I can zoom right by that FBI warning.
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I post links to stuff here
The trailers are awesome, although the trend toward commercials sucks.
My wife and I go to the same, megasuperduper stadium-seating theater every time. We even drive extra miles for it. The seats are comfy, no obstructed views, and the food is actually much, much better than it used to be in theaters (ice cream, nachos, free soda and popcorn refills -- where were those?).
All told, it's probably a cheaper experience than dining a tier above fast food, plus we get to watch a movie.
If we stayed home, rented a DVD and ordered a pizza it'd be about the same money. I just wish that there was a pizza+movie delivery service.
The reason why sales are dropping is not because I can purchase the DVD 6 months later, it's because society has finally woken (is that a word?) up and realized: DAMN! 95% of the movies friggin SUCK! I don't watch movies I watch FILMS! Films are great stories told on the big screen. I think the last great commercial "film" I've seen was "O' Brother Where art though". Everything else that's been out has sucked. MAtrix was cool too and I suspect the next time I'll be in the theater will be for the sequels. Spider-Man? Please! Scorpion King? Laughable! Gotta run, something good's coming on the IFC channel....
The producer claims that studios are 'barely making it.' Using what measurement critia?
Studios are primarily financial factories, they only happen to make movies as a side effect of their operations.
If you sign up as an actor in a major movie, your compensation 'deal' is not done as a percentage of sales, or even as pure fixed fee. It is most often done as a 'share' AFTER studio expenses are tallied. The problem with this is that everything the studio does can be considered an expense. The practical result is that even though hundreds of individuals benefit handsomely for selling services at top dollar to the studio, the studio can claim that it made no money on a particular movie because it's expenses happened to equal its income.
The actual costs to make a film in LA are enormous, not because of the logistics involved (although those can be considerable for big budget flicks) but because Screen Actors Guild wages are so damned high.
I live in Colorado, my neighbor across the street was the stunt guy who was thrown into a sack, kicking and screaming, in that Wild Wild West debacle. No lines, and his face never actually appeared in the movie... his SAG pay for half a day: $5000.
Beats pumping gas, doesn't it?
You can't tell me that theatres break even on admission. I refuse to believe that $8-10 for a ticket x 100 people watching the movie x 4 showings per day (roughly $3200-4000) per day and they're breaking even on admission? And that's not counting the $15-20 the average group shells out for pop/popcorn/candy ... ?
(Long time reader, first time poster)
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2. The price is WAY WAY higher!
Than what?? If you're comparing with a few years ago, see point #1.
It's more expensive for two tickets to see a movie then it is to buy a new release DVD at the Suncoast that is 100ft from the door of the theater.
It's $8.50 per ticket to see the movie in the theater, and all DVDs are 25% off duing the week after release at Suncoast. The decision becomes pay $17 for two tickets to see some commercials followed by a movie where I my or may not have the experience ruined by some obnoxious audience members, and the sticky floor will need to be washed off my shoes later, or I can spend $16 and watch the movie at home with no obnoxious people, and I can keem the movie to watch again whenever I'd like. Screw the theater.
I have to be honest and admit I never have, either. But I've been in plenty where someone's cellphone has rung and they've walked out of the theater with it ringing all the time. Hey guys, here's a hint -- if you're that vital that you have to keep it on, you surely have enough clout to demand one that can be set to vibrate!
My main beef is being in a movie theater where a group of kids are there -- not the eight year olds, more often the 15-18 year old -- and chattering away. I wonder why the heck they bothered to pay to come to the movie in the first place if they're not going to pay attention?
I once was in a theater where a whole row of school kids was sitting and goofing around, with the guys trying to impress the girls, and generally being a nuisance. Apparently someone finally got sufficiently irritated to complain, because the theater manager came in, stood at the end of the row, and told them all to get out. A couple of them started whining that they'd paid good money and he couldn't throw them out, and his only reaction was that it was his theater and he could do as he pleased, and if they wanted to bitch to him about it then they could do it outside, but they weren't staying in his theater one more minute.
He got a round of applause from the rest of the audience as the whole row of kids got up and filed out.
[flameproof suit on... check.]
I think the quality has gone up.
Off the top of my head, in the last 3 years: The Matrix, Toy Story 1 + 2, Lord of the Rings, Spider-man, American Beauty, Being John Malkovich (tell me that would have come out of a studio 5 years ago.. ha!), Fight Club, Traffic, Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon, Requiem For A Dream, Shrek...
Don't forget how completely full of drek the early 90s were. The ratio of good-to-bad in studio films, IMHO, has improved.
If Jesus wants me it knows where to find me.
I frequently boo loudly when those commercials come one. No one seems to mind, in fact, people tend to join in the booing. Try it, it's fun.
XML causes global warming.
"And if I hear another MPAA or RIAA exec trying to justify the prices as being necessary to cover the costs of producing the "failures", I think I'm going to puke. No other industry I know of tries to justify their costs by pointing to perpetual mis-management, poor marketing, and poor salary negotiation skills. It's called "ROI" people, and if you can't grasp that basic concept and deal with it you should be out of business!"
It seems to me that research and development in most industries is like this. That is, the profit from the few successes pays for the R&D on everything else.
I disagree with your statement that the film industry is bad at marketing. I think they're really really good at marketing, even for crappy products.
Also, it seems to me that MPAA and RIAA employees don't make films or records. I'm guessing you meant movie studio and record company executives, in which case I must point out that I've never ever heard any of those people refer to any of their products as failures.
It is extremely expensive in the Bay Area for movies. I live within 20 minutes of about 50-70 screens. Admission price? $8.75/ticket.
When I lived in Washington state (5 months ago) tickets were $7.25/ticket. So I am paying a premium of, um, 20% to see a movie here.
Plus some movies get censored here. I went looking for Jonah (a kids movie with "Christian" values) and found the nearest cinema showning was over 45 minutes away, directly away from the population centers. This same movie was still running heavily in areas with fewer theaters, but was censored in the tolerent and loving Bay area.
This is like those lame handouts that your teacher gave you in elementary school when you were done with the math test before everyone else.. Match up the appropriate A to B kiddies:
{BLANK A} is going to put {BLANK B} out of business within {X} years.
Possible A answers:
1. The Audio Cassette
2. The Compact Disc
3. Television
4. Beta Video
5. VHS Video
6. Napster
7. Public Libraries
Possible B answers:
1. Radio Industry
2. Movie Industry
3. Music Producers
4. Theatre Owners
5. Book Publishers
When are they going to learn? Embrace, extend, profit. It's just that simple.
Listen up: You're right! You have reason to be afraid, YES. Therefore read up, get some geeks on staff, and take advantage of the technology. Those that have have gotten ahead, while the bitcher/whiner/moaner/"it's not fair"ers have been passed by.
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His citing Titanic isn't a good example either. Titanic was a total aberation for movies. It made as much the next 12 weekends as it did it's first weekend (within 10-20%) instead of having the usual 30-50% drop off that most major movies do now. People just kept going back again and again, and you can't expect any movie to come close to what Titanic did. I just think they're blowing everything way out of proportion. Yes, I'm sure downloading movies hurts them some, but not that much (I know I'm not going to take the time).
they'll be putting Hollywood out of business, possibly within the next three years.
They. That's right. THEY will be putting hollywood out of business, but when he says "THEY" he doesn't me us, or the file sharers, or the fans. What he really should be saying is "THEY", Hollywood themselves.
If you're in the automotive business, and business is doing lousy because of the economy, you cut costs. If you're a dot-com, before you go bust, you cut costs. If you're a doctor, HMO, Radio Station, Factory, Fast Food Joint, anybody in business, when business is lousy, you cut costs.
So why is it then, that when Hollywood feels the economic crunch, they blame everyone, raise their salaries, raise their costs, and then stick it to the fans with a higher ticket price?
If they were any other business, they would have folded by now. I kind of hope the big studios fold. Little studios will take over, for cheaper, with new and innovative ideas. We'll still have movies to watch, it just won't be the movies THEY make. Good riddance.
"Everything you know is wrong. (And stupid.)"
Moderation Totals: Wrong=2, Stupid=3, Total=5.
Here it costs about 4500-5000 bolivares (3-3.5$) and that's really expensive for us, since minimum wage is 100$ a month
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A few sound designers for live theatre that I know would play back a sample of a cell phone ringing over the P.A. System, 15 minutes before curtain. It helps trigger people to remember to shut off their OWN cell phone. And it works, too.
--jeff++
ipv6 is my vpn
The parent claimed he had never heard a cell phone in a theater before, and said he thought it was an urban legend.
/rant
Out here in Southern California, a cell phone rings in a theatre more than 60% of the time. Some theatres flash a screen that says "please turn off all cell phones" before the movie starts.
I really hate going to the theatre now. I paid $18 for LOTR (Me and girlfriend) and it was 3 months after opening. The quality of the film was horrible after being played hundreds of times. The frames would skip as would the sound. Some parts were out of focus and had that annoying "film hair" dancing around. Oh yeah and the sound that seems to "waver" now and then as the projector speed adjusts itself.
Now compare that to watching the DVD in full digital sound at home with a flawless picture on a 60" big screen while naked. A quick shopping.yahoo.com search gives me a price of $13.99 + S&H. And if I were so inclined, get a "free evaluation" DVD divx rip which is nearly as good except for a half-way intermission between the 2 files. Reminds me of good old monster Laser Disks when you had to flip them.
Of course, Michael Eisner may have to take a pay cut from 700 million dollars to 400 million dollars, but if Hollywood goes out of business we'll all be better people. We'll read more, watch more documentaries. We won't have to watch Spiderman 2, and lethal weapon 7.
Did you know commercial TV is going out of business too? I am so psyched! For example, that means no more 30 second attack ads influencing our elections, and that means that the corrupting influence of money will be minimized. We may have to pay for our TV, but we'll make up the difference elsewhere. Products shouldn't be as expensive without the TV advertising built into the price.
The music industry is doomed for real. The artists are fed up, the audience is fed up, and how long do you think it's goign to take for these disgruntled parties to find each other? New bands are already distributing their music via the internet. Someday soon, an established artist's conract is going to lapse, and he or she is going to do the same thing. What do you need a record company for, anyway? Promotion and distribution... all of which can be handled by the internet.
The sky is falling? Let it fall.
Make a white-disc copy of the DVD available cheap for anyone with a ticket stub from the movie. As soon as the movie is on the big screen the customer can buy it on DVD this way. That'd boost attendence and help stop piracy.
SW: Clones just sucked. That's why I didn't see it again and again like I had previous Star Wars movies.
At what price learning? At what cost wisdom? The price is a man's peace of mind, and the cost is his life.
One thing this guy from Lucas films hasn't thought about, Digital theatres. I've seen some interesting stuff coming from the corridors at Kodak. They are considering new avenues for using the theatres in local communities.
Examples; A Live concert broadcast in local communities simultaneously, theatre productions broadcast on full screen movie cinemas, MTV Videos larger than life, hell even TV episodes (I personally like Star Trek Next Generation Re-Runs... how cool it would be to see those on full screen THX sound theatres).
I personally don't think this guy has thought through all the options movie theatres have in their hands. He's hitting the panic button like Hilary Rosen (the dictator chick at RIAA) did when Napster came out.
Dissing new media is the content-maker's well-honed tradition. The piano-roll was going to kill music sales. The radio would devastate music, as would the audio tapes. G-d save us from the death of everyone after the television. And the VCR case had to go to the Supreme Court. Then the DAT, the CD and now the DVD.
In every case, savvy content people got bigger and bigger and bigger, wealthier and wealthier, precisely because of the new media, not in sprite of it.
Yes, theatres and hollywood had better get the message clearly -- they serve a marketplace, not the other way around. Those that get it will prosper, those that don't will fail.
Having just read through 100's of heavily moderated comments I have yet to see one person ask this question:
If cinemas are so much better than DVDs, how come they don't release the DVD at the same time it comes out in the cinema? This way people get to choose.
Hey, they could even buy the DVD on the way out from the cinema if they liked the film so much..
Surely any industry which relies on this level of controlled marketing is never going to survive in the longer term.
Q.