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Moore's Law Disputed

Kumiorava writes "Transistors can be packed to same chip two times more in every 18 months. This Moore's law has been repeated already over 30 years. Computers become faster, IT economy grows, but Moore's law doesn't apply. That has been proven by researcher Ilkka Tuomi. You can read the research from First Monday article The Lives and Death of Moore's Law." 'tho, to be fair, it seems to me that Moore's Law has lasted a lot longer then the throng of people who keep predicting its death.

15 of 252 comments (clear)

  1. YADOMLA by Xner · · Score: 5, Funny
    (Yet Another Death of Moore's Law Article)

    My guess is that the reports of the death of Moore's Law will turn out to be greatly exaggerated.

    --
    Pathman, Free (as in GPL) 3D Pac Man
  2. There goes another one of my solid beliefs :) by Da+Fokka · · Score: 5, Funny

    First the 2nd law of thermodynamics fails, then Moore's Law... When will things start fulling upward?

  3. Cy Guy's Law by Cy+Guy · · Score: 4, Funny
    Likely I'm not the first to propose this, but based on my monitoring of the IT industry I would propose this corollary to Moore's Law
    Every six month's some pundit will predict that reached have reached the end of Moore's Law...and that the pundit's prediction will be posted on SlashDot...and that within three months some innovation will occur that ensure the continutity of Moore's Law... and finally, that SlashDot will post a story about that innovation.


    1. Re:Cy Guy's Law by sharkey · · Score: 5, Funny

      and finally, that SlashDot will post a story about that innovation.

      Twice. In a 24 hour period.

      --

      --
      "Outlook not so good." That magic 8-ball knows everything! I'll ask about Exchange Server next.
    2. Re:Cy Guy's Law by br0ck · · Score: 4, Funny

      And then two people will make the same comment about duplicates. Twice. In a 30 minute period. ;)

  4. Moore's Law and web servers by nolife · · Score: 5, Funny

    Let me introduce the Slashdot law. This law is inversely proportional to the decline of Moore's law.

    Already taking over 60 seconds to load up..

    --
    Bad boys rape our young girls but Violet gives willingly.
  5. obligatory simpsons reference by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    Lisa, in this house we obey the laws of thermodynamics.

    Sorry, couldnt help myself

  6. Yeltsin's Law by muyuubyou · · Score: 4, Funny

    The level of Vodka in your blood doubles every 18 months

  7. The Moores Law of Moores Law by Duds · · Score: 5, Funny

    The number of people incorrectly predicting its demise will double every 18 months.

  8. Another law... by tbspit · · Score: 5, Funny

    Every 18 months, computer software will be made to take twice the processing power for the same task.

  9. Adobe's Law by Mr_Silver · · Score: 5, Funny

    However big, fast and/or powerful your computer is Adobe Photoshop will always take an age to start up.

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    Avantslash - View Slashdot cleanly on your mobile phone.
  10. Whew by digidave · · Score: 5, Funny

    For a second I thought that the headline read "Murphy's Law Disputed". I was going to argue it bitterly.

    --
    The global economy is a great thing until you feel it locally.
  11. Re:News Flash! by Henry+V+.009 · · Score: 5, Funny

    Goddamn cut and paste from the spell checker--mod the above post down. Anyone else been having problems with ctrl-c, ctrl-p, and Phoenix?

    Godwin's law fails!

    USENET authorities are disturbed by the failure of a law that some thought to be a lynchpin of internet discussion: Godwin's Law. Simply stated, "As a Usenet discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches one." Beginning last week observers began to notice something was wrong. Says one 'lurker', "I came across this thread on abortion, you see. I started reading--and that's when I noticed something strange. Every post in the thread simply got better and better as each participant read the other's arguments and replied calmly. It was then when it hit me--no Nazi references anywhere. I went back to read it again, and I was sure--Godwin's Law has been broken."

    The violation of Godwin's law is hailed by some as a doomsday scenario for USENET. "These threads will just keep going and going forever! There is nothing to stop them. Eventually it'll all just reach critical mass and collapse in on itself," says a popular USENET troll. Others don't see it as cataclysmic, put painful all the same. "World War II is a large part of the world's history--I don't want to see that forgotten," reads one post to alt.military.history.

  12. Sighting after death? by Rai · · Score: 4, Funny

    If Moore's Law does official die, will there be sightings of it afterwards like that of Elvis?

  13. Who was the jackass that called it a "Law" anyways by joshamania · · Score: 4, Funny

    Moore's Law, Moore's Law, Moore's Law...Christmas!

    What "Law"? How about "Postulate", or "Theorem"...no, not theorem...how about "conjecture"? How about "cockamamie bullshit"? You could probably make a similar "law" that describes the performance of light bulb technology over the last 100 years..."well, lightbulbs become (sort-of) 5% less expensive to make and 5% brighter every decade! Whoopee!!!"

    Everybody's seen the graph. It's not linear. It's not exponential...it's just up. Hit or miss. No "law" involved here at all.

    The whole idea that Moore's Law is a Law is stupid from the get-go. Damnit, I wish I could remember the name of the...oh yeah, the IgNobel. They should give the IgNobel to the cat who disproved Moore's Law. I mean, come on people, duh!

    This is almost as stupid as those clone-aid wackos...