Slashdot Mirror
Ask Nicholas Petreley About Linux Usage Statistics
This Slashdot discusssion, about a story Nick wrote, is already going (and heated). I did a NewsForge interview with a SuSE rep who quotes an IDC study that says Linux desktop use will double by 2004. Sounds nice, but how reliable are all these statistics? Nick's been studying Linux use in depth lately, so let's ask him directly what all of these numbers mean, if anything, and how IDC, Evans Data, and other analysts get and massage them. We'll post Nick's answers to 10 of the highest-moderated questions as soon as he gets them back to us.
Do you think statistics are nothing more of a marketing tool, and should the open source community use these numbers (usually squeued) to get some leverage when promoting open source alternatives to the higher ups?
dam()
Useless sig.
Do you see announcements from heavy hitters (like Dell, IBM, etc) helping sway more 'desktop users' to switching to Linux?
"We are the music makers, and we are the dreamers of dreams."
Obviously you are biased to Linux. My question is do you use Windows? Honestly, I have a hard time believing statistics from a one sided person. So if you use Windows as much as Linux and see the pluses to both operating systems, then I'm more likely to take what you say seriously.
Good quote, too many chars. Seriously, the slashdot 120 char limit sucks!
Do you place any credibilty in the tendency for certain analysts to derive things like a "mindshare index" from arguably disparate sources?
The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits.
Part of the problem in counting the number of Linux desktops/servers/etc. is that anyone can get it from any of a million different places (friends, ftp, subscriptions, etc.), but the industry tends only to count sales. I know for a fact that every CD I have of Linux I have installed it on at least 10 other systems...some are upgrades, others are new users, and still others moving over from another distro.
And this leads to the other problem...what are the *real* usage stats on distros? It's hard to tell. From talking to people, a lot of people use Slackware and Debian for servers, Red Hat, Suse and Mandrake for desktops...but how can we really count who is using what?
ttyl
Farrell
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...the one where 40% of developers are writing mainly to Linux. Where does that stat come from, and what does "developers" mean? It sounds really nice, but if it were true I as a Linux user would expect to see a lot more apps. Does it come from Sourceforge numbers? Does it come from a poll at a website; maybe a Slashdot, Kuro5hin or Newsforge poll? Is it of *all* developers, or of *paid* developers, or of developers of open-source developers or in-house developers or developers of commercial software? Does it include platform-agnostic developers (ie. Java/ perl/ ASP/ PHP/ .NET)? If so, which side does it put them on? Also, what is the error margin of the poll?
I know a bit about statistics, and more about Linux, and something smells fishy. Linux is good, so I figure the numbers are bad.
So can you tell me, Is BSD dying?
Its easy to go from 1 to 2 users or 2 to 4 and claim a fantastic growth rate, but what constitutes that magic number of users before its truly a desktop operating system being used daily by enough of a mass to catch the attention of large software development firms that will create/port applications to linux?
Is growth rate in terms of number of desktops conquered (eg growth rate of 1.5 million desktops a year) a better measuring stick than doubled/tripled/whatever the number of users in X years. What, in your opinion, is a good measuring tool in determining the growth rate/acceptance of linux in the market?
We can't even get solid Internet traffic statistics. Look at the mess Worldcom's inflated traffic numbers caused.
If you feel that linux on the desktop is going to double by 2004, how do you figure we are going to get there? Who is going to lead the way and what is going to become the turning point that linux becomes a usable desktop for the majority of users? I love linux, its configurability and the support that is available on the web, but I would never install linux on my grandmothers computer at home. Do you figure that linux should just pick a default window manager now and build upon that to allow a seamless interface from those coming from Windows XP to linux?
I have no signature
I mean, really.
What are the primary means of assessing Linux on the Desktop usage statistics, and how reliable are these methods? Also, what types of methods are used to offset each method's failings?
There are websites that track such statistics. In your opinion, how reliable are these sites in general?
(Score: -1, Stupid)