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Ask Nicholas Petreley About Linux Usage Statistics
This Slashdot discusssion, about a story Nick wrote, is already going (and heated). I did a NewsForge interview with a SuSE rep who quotes an IDC study that says Linux desktop use will double by 2004. Sounds nice, but how reliable are all these statistics? Nick's been studying Linux use in depth lately, so let's ask him directly what all of these numbers mean, if anything, and how IDC, Evans Data, and other analysts get and massage them. We'll post Nick's answers to 10 of the highest-moderated questions as soon as he gets them back to us.
What is the biggest hurdle, in your opinion, for Linux to be on everyone's desktop?
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Do you think statistics are nothing more of a marketing tool, and should the open source community use these numbers (usually squeued) to get some leverage when promoting open source alternatives to the higher ups?
dam()
Useless sig.
Do you see announcements from heavy hitters (like Dell, IBM, etc) helping sway more 'desktop users' to switching to Linux?
"We are the music makers, and we are the dreamers of dreams."
Obviously you are biased to Linux. My question is do you use Windows? Honestly, I have a hard time believing statistics from a one sided person. So if you use Windows as much as Linux and see the pluses to both operating systems, then I'm more likely to take what you say seriously.
Good quote, too many chars. Seriously, the slashdot 120 char limit sucks!
Ok, I'll bite:
Nicholas,
What about Linux usage statistics?
Do you place any credibilty in the tendency for certain analysts to derive things like a "mindshare index" from arguably disparate sources?
The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits.
Part of the problem in counting the number of Linux desktops/servers/etc. is that anyone can get it from any of a million different places (friends, ftp, subscriptions, etc.), but the industry tends only to count sales. I know for a fact that every CD I have of Linux I have installed it on at least 10 other systems...some are upgrades, others are new users, and still others moving over from another distro.
And this leads to the other problem...what are the *real* usage stats on distros? It's hard to tell. From talking to people, a lot of people use Slackware and Debian for servers, Red Hat, Suse and Mandrake for desktops...but how can we really count who is using what?
ttyl
Farrell
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...the one where 40% of developers are writing mainly to Linux. Where does that stat come from, and what does "developers" mean? It sounds really nice, but if it were true I as a Linux user would expect to see a lot more apps. Does it come from Sourceforge numbers? Does it come from a poll at a website; maybe a Slashdot, Kuro5hin or Newsforge poll? Is it of *all* developers, or of *paid* developers, or of developers of open-source developers or in-house developers or developers of commercial software? Does it include platform-agnostic developers (ie. Java/ perl/ ASP/ PHP/ .NET)? If so, which side does it put them on? Also, what is the error margin of the poll?
I know a bit about statistics, and more about Linux, and something smells fishy. Linux is good, so I figure the numbers are bad.
What stocks do you own?
Do you feel obvious relationship to and advocacy of Linux skew any statistics that you would release or predict?
Does this bias (and it would be difficult to deny that it's apparent) affect how we as a community and the less Linux-savvy view these numbers?
If you could say in two sentences why I should use Linux instead of Windows or MacOS or anything else for that matter, what would you say?
"I only speak the truth"
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Do you think that Linux will ever overtake MS and Apple on the desktop? If so, why and how? If not, again why?
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So can you tell me, Is BSD dying?
How much do you think that Linux usage statistics reflect the public's understanding of the licensing issues involved with Open Source (and Free) software ?
Or how about an alternative perspective.
Will Linux lose market share, especially in its server status?
Does this anticipate growth in Microsoft based servers?
Will this further Palladium's potential integration into hardware?
Can they forsee an end to when Linux will lose it's ability to continue as free software?
Several obvious possibilities come to mind:
1. lower cost alternatives to proprietary tools
2. momentum from Perl, Python and PHP being developed first on *nix
3. inherent advantages such as stability and source code availability
4. capability to fine tune services such as email, web, etc.
With all these advantages, what do you identify to be the driving, unifying principle behind desktop Linux adoption by developers?
http://tinyurl.com/4ny52
Its easy to go from 1 to 2 users or 2 to 4 and claim a fantastic growth rate, but what constitutes that magic number of users before its truly a desktop operating system being used daily by enough of a mass to catch the attention of large software development firms that will create/port applications to linux?
Is growth rate in terms of number of desktops conquered (eg growth rate of 1.5 million desktops a year) a better measuring stick than doubled/tripled/whatever the number of users in X years. What, in your opinion, is a good measuring tool in determining the growth rate/acceptance of linux in the market?
At what level of penetration (% install base share) will Linux reach critical mass on the desktop? It's much less relevant from a server perspective since it appears that Linux already has reached critical mass on that front. Should we assume that when Linux supplants Apple as the number two platform (although this has already happened from what I have seen, nobody is stating it yet in the mass media), that we will see a proliferation of commercial Linux offerings and (more importantly) better OEM hardware support?
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Karma: pi (Mostly due to circular reasoning in posts).
I commented about this article two days ago here. In it, you could find references to the Evans Data Corporation (EDC) he based his story. Check Primary OS Prior to Mainly Targeting Linux OS or How Important Are 64-Bit Architectures? pages before arguing about Nicholas Petreley's article.
People expect to get "Windows" when they purchase a new computer at "Walmart" or other major outlet. Most people want to "buy it, plug it in and use it", ie., pre-installed OS. Only a few people know the value of Linux vs Windows. Do any of the statistics show the effect of advertising and pre-installed Os on market share and usage trends?
We can't even get solid Internet traffic statistics. Look at the mess Worldcom's inflated traffic numbers caused.
There's lies, damned lies, and statistics.
How do you reconcile the "fact" that everyone has statistics to show what they want, with the fact that you think yours are better?
If you feel that linux on the desktop is going to double by 2004, how do you figure we are going to get there? Who is going to lead the way and what is going to become the turning point that linux becomes a usable desktop for the majority of users? I love linux, its configurability and the support that is available on the web, but I would never install linux on my grandmothers computer at home. Do you figure that linux should just pick a default window manager now and build upon that to allow a seamless interface from those coming from Windows XP to linux?
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It seems to me that for the past four or five years I've been seeing "statistics" and "studies" to the tune of "Linux is enterprise-ready" and "Linux will overtake the desktop" and "Linux rulez". What's different today?
What in your opinion is the biggest stumbling block for wide spread acceptance of Linux in desktop uses?
Lack of software, poor GUI design, lack of a single common GUI, hard to buy a computer with out Microsoft software preinstalled, "it is free so it can't be good" misconceptions, or something else?
Slashdot, home of supporters of free software, free music, and free speech.Except for Moderators that disagree with you.
http://www.google.com/press/zeitgeist.html
It is fairly neutral(in fact even Linux & advanced users biased). It shows Marketshare of Linux has failed to register even a blip, while XP grew from 0% to a whopping 26% in just a few months.
Before everyone spews some shit about how they access Google from office, I have got one word for you guys 'Corelation'. Most of the enterprise has not switched to XP, but yet XP shows up at 26%. Also I dont believe that after all those people switching to Linux, it hasn't grown past 1% (i.e 0% growth) for the past freaking 24 months. Pretty damning for the fastest growing OS in the planet.
Zeitgiest shows only one fastest growing OS, i.e Windows XP
As long as there are clueless idiots who would believe anything Linux zealots say, "Linux is growing marketshare in desktop"
I don't get this -- a relatively flamebait-ish writer from a relatively flamebait-ish Linux publication writes an article claiming that Linux desktop share must be high because of a survey focused entirely on developers, and because, well, you can't prove it's NOT! and we're lining up to ask him detailed questions about his analysis?
Look, the Google numbers speak for themselves. If people want to tell themselves that >90% of Linux desktop users are faking their browser ID strings, then bless 'em.
What I'm listening to now on Pandora...
As a follow-up question, does your reasarch support the CowboyNeal Theory that links "insensitive clods" with M$ desktops?
If brevity is the soul of wit, then how does one explain Twitter?
Apart from the free (speech/beer whatever) source/ closed source propoganda what has linux to offer a average customer (read non-geek) that windows doesn't ?
:)
Well, I don't really need any more than that. And once educated on the issue, a lot of non-geeks don't either. There are a lot of people who base their purchasing decisions on exactly that kind of thing. You think only geeks are privacy-conscious? Try telling people that WinXP makes you agree to let MS search and alter your hard drive, and see how much they value MS's promise to only use that for voluntary updates.
If its all about choice, then what will prevent customers from choosing windows in future, even if hypothetically speaking the customer is able to buy a no pre-installed OS pc.?
Assume you can get whatever operating system you want pre-installed, otherwise that makes the question kinda pointless (people will pick Windows because they can get it pre-installed). But nothing will -prevent- them from picking windows. Certainly people will. But once there -is- choice, then what's to prevent them from picking Linux?
I know that linux distros include much more than a bare bone OS, but do the customers really care ?
I think so. I think they'll care when they realize that the $100 for the XP upgrade doesn't come with Office. And people who think FreeCell and Minesweeper are pretty cool go apeshit over the games that come with Linux distros.
Basically, they might not care -now-, because they don't know. People aren't used to getting like 3 disks crammed with applications with their operating system, but once they are, doesn't it seem like they'd like that?
One of THE MOST important things for linux to succeed in desktop is to get the OEM manifactures out from the microsoft's clutches.
I agree. The only advantages MS has are by virtue of its entrenchment -- consumer software and hardware vendors target Windows first. Until then, the folks who'd run Linux "except (I need to use Photoshop | UT2003 runs like ass on my Raedon | my scanner won't work, period )" will be beyond reach.
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I mean, really.
What are the primary means of assessing Linux on the Desktop usage statistics, and how reliable are these methods? Also, what types of methods are used to offset each method's failings?
There are websites that track such statistics. In your opinion, how reliable are these sites in general?
(Score: -1, Stupid)
substitute for Photoshop: CAD applications (AutoCad, SolidWorks, ProE, SolidEdge, etc.)
Nicholas, given that the vast, vast majority of developers write software for internal corporate use and B2B applications, what possible significance can your 40% number have for the consumer desktop? Windows dominated the consumer desktop market before it penetrated a corporate market dominated by Unix, VMS, OS/360, etc., not the other way around. No one seriously disputes the rapid growth of Linux in the enterprise, but it seems to me that the corporate server market -- even the corporate desktop market -- has very little influence on what my grandmother or my daughter use on their desktops.
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Obviously games isn't factored into the usage equation, am I right?
Take the only known stats, and look them over. Compare them to Windows...
Rune: 0.37%, if that, were Linux sales.
UT2003: less than 1% of people to ever play online were in Linux
And so on...
Most people know that Linux is used extensively on the server side of things, but how is Linux doing on the desktop side? And more specifically, games?
Hi--
/. community pokes holes in studies like this when they come out of Windows, shouldn't the /. community hold data to higher standards, even if it does support their cause?
I actually have a bit of a problem with the survey. From where did they recruity the sources? To quote from the article:
Representative Samples
When conducting demand side primary research it becomes important to recruit the participants (or samples) from sources that are as unbiased as possible. During the five years that EDC has been recruiting developers to participate in surveys this ideal has continuously been foremost in our efforts. Consequently, though we have used over 100 different individual sources for recruiting, the following principles have always been and will always be applied:
No vendor lists have ever been used in EDC subscription surveys and none have ever been added to the panel
No platform specific lists have ever been used in any EDC general subscription surveys and none have ever been added to the general panel*
No language specific lists have ever been used in any EDC subscriptions surveys and none have ever been added to the panel
In this way we provide the most eclectic and unbiased sample available anywhere. With thousands of developers chosen in a deliberately unbiased way from a wide variety of neutral lists, our data truly provides in-depth looks at representative samples of the developer population.
*Note: our Linux Development survey does use lists targeted for the Linux platform, however all developers recruited for that survey are kept in a separate database and are not used in any surveys other than Linux specific ones.
Clearly, it says that they use Linux specific developer lists, which indicates that this is not the broader community at all, but a very specific set of Linux developers (of the size and scope of which we have no idea). My question is this: Given how much the
I am located in Orlando Florida and have been looking for work over the last six months or so. I have been checking job ads within the Titusville, Melbourne, Orlando, and Tampa metro areas. This excludes Miami and Jacksonville metros.
I have seen a few ads requesting GNU/Linux experience. Only one or two mentioned FreeBSD, which is a real shame. A lot request Solaris, AIX, and HPUX. By far, the most significant requests are for Microsoft systems administrators though (75% or greater) You have to consider that this is not Silicon Valley over here. There are a lot of government contractors, call centers, real estate business, health care, and banking. Almost all of the companies that requested GNU/Linux experience were small or had been in business for less than 20 years.
I would say that out of the last 100 unique job posts that I have seen, 10 have requested GNU/Linux experience. One even requested that you had to submit your resume in Open Office format, which I think is a great way to weed out some of the fools.
One ad requested Debian. The rest were Red Hat. I do not recall requests for any other distributions.
It is of worthy note that Largo Florida is part of the Tampa metro area. You may remember some stories on Slashdot about how the local government of Largo uses GNU/Linux. And yes, I have seen several requests for GNU/Linux over in the Tampa metro area. A few in Orlando, and few to none in Titusville and Melbourne.
Hi to anyone in Orlando who go to hear John Hall speak about a week ago! I was there, and was the one that stole the last chocolate cookie! Ha ha!
By registering on Linux counter?