More PlayStation 3 Predictions

GreyGusMan writes "On the heels of last week's report that the PlayStation 3 would be released by the end of the year, CNN/Money is now reporting that Sony will not release its next console until 2006 - a year later than most of the industry has been predicting up until now. The column points out that PlayStation 2 sales have remained stong for much longer than the PlayStation and the technology Sony has planned will take a long time to create. Meanwhile, the same column mentions that the expected May price cut may be less than expected. Most people were expecting the PS2 to drop to $149, but $179 is now also a possibility."

Comments

Re:would be nice if...

[cdrudge]

Why mod when you can have official support

When will the Next Nex Generation come out?

[The Briguy]

Let us turn to history to decide.

First Generation

1979 Atari 1980 Colceovision 1981 Intellevision

Second Generation

1984 Nintendo NES 1986 Sega Master System

Third Generation

1989 Sega Genesis 1991 Super Nintendo

Fourth Generation

1995 Sega Saturn 1995 Sony Playstation 1996 Nintendo 64

Fifth Generation

1999 Sega Dreamcast 2000 Playstation 2 2001 Xbox 2001 Gamecube

Now, if you take the average year for each Generation, you get a distint pattern -

First Generation - 1980

Second Generation - 1985 Third Generation - 1990 Fourth Generation - 1995 Fifth Generation - 2000

If this pattern continues, then we would expect your average 6th generation console to come out in 2005, with perhaps one console in 2004 and one in 2006. In any case, if a console doesn't come out until 2005, it won't be at all unusual - this generation wouldn't be any longer than previous ones.