More PlayStation 3 Predictions

GreyGusMan writes "On the heels of last week's report that the PlayStation 3 would be released by the end of the year, CNN/Money is now reporting that Sony will not release its next console until 2006 - a year later than most of the industry has been predicting up until now. The column points out that PlayStation 2 sales have remained stong for much longer than the PlayStation and the technology Sony has planned will take a long time to create. Meanwhile, the same column mentions that the expected May price cut may be less than expected. Most people were expecting the PS2 to drop to $149, but $179 is now also a possibility."

Comments

Why would they want to?

[krugdm]

Hell, why not milk the PS2 for as long as they can? I've got to imagine that as the technology in the PS2 gets cheaper, they'll actually start making money per unit instead of losing it, and as long as people are buying, then more profit for Sony.

Apparantly it's a winning strategy since people are still buying PSOnes...

Re:Why would they want to?

[larien]

If they try to milk it too long, they'll fall behind the technology ladder. Fall too far, you risk losing market share and people will just buy Xbox(2) instead. Game makers will follow and soon PS3 is a dead duck before it's launched.

As it is, they're already behind Xbox technologically and the only thing keeping PS2 winning is the game selection. If MS buys up enough games companies for Xbox only titles, PS2 will start losing market share heavily.

*shrug* time will tell, as ever; 3 years is a long time for MS to make Sony an also ran.

Re:Why would they want to?

[renenoel]

Technical Superiority never had anything to do with the Console Wars.

At almost every stage, Nintendo had the better platform, but because of bonehead licensing, they never really got developers behind them. Also, they always came out with gimpy media: cartridges, mini-DVDs, instead of CDs and regular DVDs.

X-Box has also struggled with developers, but they clearly had (and still has) the best engine behind the games: it's twice as fast as the PS2. As Nintendo (and briefly, Sega) have shown us is that it's not the faster box that wins.

Sony wins with letting anyone and their brother develop games (they even sold ones that let you develop games on your own!), and they won by making it easily hackable. When people realized that after dropping a few dollars to (illegally) modify their PS1 or PS2, they could download all of games off the net or copy their friends' games, it took off and never looked back. At any point, if Sony wanted to close up the ability to modchip their machines, I'm sure they could have, but why would they?

If Microsoft or Nintendo really want to compete, they should worry less about processing power and more about getting people behind them.

Ingest with a single crystal of Sodium Chloride...

[Ab0rtRetryFail]

As always, I think articles like this should be taken with a grain of salt.

I think the PS3 is likely anywhere from Christmas 2004 to Christmas 2005. The standard for a LONG TIME has been a 5 year system cycle, and there's nothing to suggest that the next generation will be any different. Whatever Sony is planning is likely not past the drawing board stage, and there's certainly a lot of life left in their Playstation 2 system.

Don't worry people... you can all enjoy your PS2s for a couple of years to come, at least. :)

Re:Holy Switcheroo Batman!

[russx2]

Didn't "they" say, like 2 weeks ago, that the playstation 3 will be coming out next year?

No, it was just some rumour circling the net as usual. Sony will not under any circumstances release a new console while their existing box (PS2) is selling well.

As for not releasing a new console until it's good and finished, hmm, I'm not sure. Sony's only real motivation to release a new console sooner rather than later is competition (XBox, gamecube etc). If one of these catches them off guard then you'll be sure to see a new PS... whether it's good and finished or not. Sony can't afford to lost market share.

In topics about the PS3, some things are certain..

[Anonymous Coward]

1. The Release date will change.

2. People will complain about said release date change and blame it on either Sony, Microsoft or CowboyNeal.

3. SOMEONE will post a link to that 'Ghost of Christmas Future' PS5 story on TheOnion.

to the victors goes the spoils..

[merc_sa]

Sony has won the console war and it's now time to ride the gravy train for the next few years
off the software. The xbox was out late was never got traction, and the gamecube is still
mainly targetted at kiddies..

MS is now in the awkward situation of either being content at number 2 or risk further
alienating its base by releasing the next console too early. Nintendo being in that same leaky
boat. So whether we like it or not, Sony's domination over this current generation of
consoles will push out innovation for the next generation at least by an extra year or two.
It'll be good for sony's bottomline but gamers will have to be happy with what they got for a
little while...

Is it just me, or there seems to be a slowdown in major AAA titles in the last year or so for the
consoles? I would generally buy at least 3 to 4 AAA titles a year, but this year and last year,
Vice City is the only title I've picked up.. Either I'm getting pickier.. or the picking's
gotten a lot thinner..

Re:to the victors goes the spoils..

[larien]

Nintendo is dying off in the UK; Dixons (major high street retailer; part of the same group as PC World) have effectively stopped selling it, clearing existing stock only. Argos are heavily discounting and are likely to stop selling RSN.

They're not out of the game yet, but without a turnaround, they're going to become irrelevant soon.

Why do we need it?

[x311]

It might just be me, but I'm completely satisfied with my XBox and PS2. Hell, I still love the Dreamcast. You know why? The games are good and fun. Is releasing a new console going to make the games better? I really can't see the correlation between having a new console out and having better games (except that a new system usually launches with a couple A+ games). I'd be more interested in MS and Sony throwing more money into quality game development instead of working on making a new console that will make the already-pretty-enough graphics a little bit prettier. Graphics and processing power do not make games--innovation does.

Re:Competiton

[binaryDigit]

As other people have said the PS2 unit itself might start making money for sony as production costs fall

Repeat after me, Sony sells PS2 hardware for a profit already. Have for a while now.

I look forward to the day I can play a photorealistic games rendered in real time.

As long as the games don't suck. I look forward to the day when focus comes back to gameplay and not pretty pictures.

Re:would be nice if...

[cdrudge]

Why mod when you can have official support

they have to wait

[NixterAg]

Sony won't pump out the Playstation 3 until they get a better idea of how many people will adopt HDTV, which technology will succeed DVD in the home, and when Microsoft will release a competing product. They can't afford to release a piece of hardware that isn't compatible with what people want. You can't believe how many people use their PS2 (or X-Box) as their primary (if only) DVD player. This is a huge selling point for the consoles and has been a huge boon to the DVD industry. It has, in essence, single handedly killed VHS, as many major retail outlets have already announced plans to phase out VHS sales.

It's not just about games anymore. Gaming consoles will become the media hub of the future home, not PCs (yes you can argue that gaming machines are specialized PCs but that's not completely accurate), and it's critical that Sony continue with that concept, but it's risky at the same time.

Recap

[YE]

Now, if you haven't been following the entire brouhaha, here's a brief recap:

1. Somebody overhears something about chips sampling and makes the utterly ridiculous assumption that PS3 will launch this year.
   
   
2. Gutter media (like The Inquirer) are all over the story.
   
   
3. Gamer sites don't want to be left behind ("Hey, it may be bullshit, but our readers better read bullshit on our pages than on The Inquirer") and quote each other as authorities.
   
   
4. Everyone with a little insight in the console business and general common sense dismisses the story as crap. General consensus is reached.
   
   
5. Mainstream media picks up the story a week after it's all calmed down, e.g. CNN posts an article of three screenfulls of text which says absolutely nothing.
   
   
6. Slashdot editors decide that any mention of the word "Playstation" on CNN is techno-culture, cyberpunkish, and, most of all, worth posting as news.
   
   
7. Slashdot readers ("commenters") wage a bloody flamefest over "my console is 1337er than yours", mentioning "attention to gameplay", "Microsoft world domination" and "games in ye good olden days" many times without giving a clock cycle to think about what they actually mean. But, hey, that's okay, that's Slashdot!

Re:Who cares?

[mezelf]

The X-box vs. PS2 battle will indeed be a tough one, but I don't think that the X-box will knock the Gamecube off the market. They are targetted at completely different audiences. The Gamecube targets the younger children, with games and characters such as Zelda, Super Mario, ... Pretty friendly games, rather non-violent with more or less cartoon-like characters. OK, they have always had other games as well (Metal Gear springs to mind), but Super Mario and Zelda were and are their flagships.

While both the X-box ans the Playstation (1 or 2) can compete with the gamecube on the second type of games (for the young adults or the older children) and even might dominate the market in that category, they don't seem to have that impact on the youngest amongst the gamers and they don't seem really willing to put enough effort in it.

So, I think that there is more than enough room for at least 2 consoles, and I favor Nintendo for being one of them. They have the know-how regarding children, they work with some experienced companies on those games, ... What will happen to the other consoles... Only time will tell.

I predict . . .

[frankthechicken]

I believe Sony and Trevor Bayliss are understood to be forming a partnership, so I predict the next playstation will be completely portable, with completely wireless controllers. Both the console and the controllers will be entirely powered by the power of wind up. The crank to wind up the controller may also be used as a Fishing/Hammer throw/Cycling/Organ grinder simulator, much like the original Sega Fishing rod.

The actual reason for the delay for the release date is the need to try to decrease the amount of work needed to keep the console operating. Currently the console needs the equivalent of reeling in forty seven Killer Whales per second, or 47 kW/S to generate even simple gouraud shading. Though Mr. Bayliss believes that this may be overcome through some form of "magic".

Re:Ingest with a single crystal of Sodium Chloride

[ApharmdB]

A computer lasts about 2 years... Why would a console last 6?

Because the hardware is more focused on a single purpose and because that is a benefit of consoles. Joe Average likes consoles as opposed to computer gaming because it is a single purchase that lasts a much longer time. He is not forced into a constant upgrade cycle to stay current. If Sony, MS, and Nintendo start making new consoles every two years they will alienate a lot of people. Look at what all those "upgrades" did to Sega during the Saturn days.

Quick rant

[Anonymous Coward]

1. Please don't call it the PS/2, that's a device interface

2. Joe Six-pack doesn't care whether or not you can install Linux, or overclock the processor. That is not the way you are going to sell a games machine.

When will the Next Nex Generation come out?

[The Briguy]

Let us turn to history to decide.

First Generation

1979 Atari 1980 Colceovision 1981 Intellevision

Second Generation

1984 Nintendo NES 1986 Sega Master System

Third Generation

1989 Sega Genesis 1991 Super Nintendo

Fourth Generation

1995 Sega Saturn 1995 Sony Playstation 1996 Nintendo 64

Fifth Generation

1999 Sega Dreamcast 2000 Playstation 2 2001 Xbox 2001 Gamecube

Now, if you take the average year for each Generation, you get a distint pattern -

First Generation - 1980

Second Generation - 1985 Third Generation - 1990 Fourth Generation - 1995 Fifth Generation - 2000

If this pattern continues, then we would expect your average 6th generation console to come out in 2005, with perhaps one console in 2004 and one in 2006. In any case, if a console doesn't come out until 2005, it won't be at all unusual - this generation wouldn't be any longer than previous ones.