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Chinese Moon Base by 2012 - or 2006?
apsmith writes "Former congressman and House Science chairman Robert S. Walker has written some rather striking conclusions about Chinese intentions in space over the next few years, based on information received for the recent Commisison on the Future of Aerospace. Walker is convinced the Chinese are going all-out for a permanent settlement on the Moon within 10 years; apparently some closer to the situation in Japan think the first landing will be in only 3-4 years. Meanwhile the Economist says IT people are starting to focus on space as the next high-tech venue. Fortunately, despite NASA's neglect, we do have a few private missions to the Moon in the works."
The russians never pulled this off, but maybe a communist red flag next to the stars and stripes might knock the Americans off their high horse, or at least, wake them up. The Chinese are also willing to accept loss of life in this pursuit, so it wouldn't suprise me if they had something going bt 2010.
I'd just be happy to see Homo Sapiens someplace other than Earth.
Or maybe they don't need to? I for one have no desire to live on the moon, or see the costs of getting there subsidized by my taxes.
mining materials from the moon is going to be more expensive than raiding Western Russia and mining in Siberia then shipping it back to China.
It's expensive to live there, to ship people there, and to experiment there (what to experiment on I will never know).
I can't see a financial justification to use it as a start point for Mars missions when there is nothing of use on Mars (even if there is water and "life").
Let's have our people suffer and wither away in the wastelands of undeveloped China and build a moon base!
While competition is good fun when it comes to sport, it is about time the West, in particular the USA stopped believing that every time another entity tries to do something newer, bigger or better that such a step is looked upon as a threat. China has never attacked a Western nation and is trying to open up - in particular since SARS. So, we should be supporting and encouraging them. We have worked pretty well with the Russians, that has paid off with their help since Columbia. So we have learned that if you corner the fox he will bite, but if you pamper him he will lick.
O'WONDERWe're working on it.
As a Westerner who sadly recognizes the fact that his society has abandoned space exploration and colonization, I'm more than happy for the Chinese lunar colonists. At least some members of homo sapiens will get to leave the rock.
But as a Westerner who's read Heinlein, I'm pretty sure that sooner or later, those guys are going to end up more free and more happy than their government could ever imagine possible, even in its worst nightmares.
You go, Chinese guys. More power to ya.
Heinlein was a starry-eyed optimist to think it could ever happen on Earth, but he had a valid point on Luna - any resource-rich, low-population, but otherwise harsh environment practically necessitates the development of certain cultural norms.
To the rest of the world, this is just one more triumph of the United States that nobody else has caught up to after 35 YEARS! The second country to land on the moon would still look big in the eyes of the rest of the world, and more-so if they build a moon base (something not even the USA has done).
On a different note, I'm going back to school for aerospace engineering. When touring the department, I found that they are having record enrollment in both their graduate and undergraduate programs. Kinda make's one wonder how many of them (like me) are switching from the computer industry...
science is a religion
One of the benefits of the Apollo program wasn't just the science done on the moon, but all of the technological innovations that had to be made in order for it to happen. Sure some of those innovations are relatively mundane (like Tempurpedic Mattresses). However, it also helps you build a huge amount of expertise in aerospace and electronics - industries that would help China both commercially and miliatarily.
This is a nation which still hasn't launched a person into space, let alone have the capacity to go to the moon soon. At the time of the Apollo missions, the US was spending 1% (http://members.aol.com/dsportree/VH04.htm) of the GNP on NASA. The Soviets were probably spending about the same amount of dough. That's was 6 billion in 1967 dollars, or about 32 billion dollars today. Can China afford this? I'm dubious, especially given the current world economy.
Tack on the expenses both nations had (US with Mercury & Gemini, USSR with the various Vostok missions), and the experience China will have to gain... I'd wager on a 2012 landing and 2020 at best for a permanent base. It will take many heavy-lifting flights to get stuff to the moon, and just one disaster to set back the whole timeframe.
Further, the natural Chinese economic advantage (lots of cheap labor), is of little value in the aerospace realm. Sure, you can have folks using picks and shovels on a dam along side modern construction equipment. But on a Saturn V/N-1 type rocket? Not likely.
Can they do it? Sure. So could ESA, Japan and probably a half dozen other nations like Australia, Brazil or India. Will they? Probably, they want the bragging rights. But by 2006? No way.
46. The Hobo smiles, his eyes glaze over, and he burps. "Beware the man who has lived longer than the Wasteland."
I disagree with many, many aspects of modern Chinese life, but there are some factual errors in your post that need correcting.
Gosh, free speech?
As long as you don't disagree with the Government too much
Freedom to assemble
Unless you're a protester
freedom to live where you want
Provided you're the right color
have as many kids as you want
As long as you're not poor
worship who you want?
As long as you're not an Atheist or a Muslim
China is not a shiny happy example of Utopia and it has lots of problems of its own. It is not some sort of grey distopian soviet nightmare that you paint it to be either.
The U.S is also not a utopia, and it too has a lot of problems to solve. Get over it.
There are only a few reasons to go to the Moon that I can see.
1. Scientific. These are pretty weak. Some nice radio and optical telescopes could be set up on the dark side. However, the next Space Telescope will be placed at Lagrange Point 2. That's pretty clean from Earthly interference and cheaper than the Moon. Exploration? Really, what are we going to find that will be useful that can not be done robotically?
2. Commercial. The solar cell idea is just stupid. Stick with Nuclear here on earth. Cheap, clean, and practically infinite. Maybe, someday, fusion will displace it. If so, H3 mining might be a winner for being on the Moon. I'm sure that will drive the Moon environmentalists up a tree. (hee hee). I can just see the protestors and signs now, "Stop Strip Mining the Moon! It's destroying the view from the earth for Spotted Owls." If we could ever make the per pound (screw you metric guys) cost to high orbit cheap enough... vacations would be a good reason to put up a colony. Just look at Vegas and Cancun. There's some serious scratch.
3. Political. That's why we (the US) went the first time. That's what the Chinese are up too. The US may have to do it just to keep the Chinese from being the only ones there. National pride can be an odd thing.
But the biggest political reason will be to get the fuck off Earth. That may be a while. Or a well funded cult may be the first to go. Too bad the Hal Bop guys are gone. It's easier to catch a lift on a Comet from the low gee of the Moon.
www.bannination.com Two things float to the top he
We need a president who will lead America back into space. President Bush is not that guy. The massive tax cuts he is ramming through will bankrupt the Treasury and prevent us from competing with the Red Chinese as they take over space.
I recommed the article U.S. 'negation' policy in space raises concerns abroad. Space is the next frontier for US military dominance. NASA may have been gutted, but now the government is realizing it can enhance its control over the world if it has space. This means denying everyone else access to space - so I won't be surprised if the US govt starts painting the Chinese (dirty commies! watch out! coughbullshitcough) space program as a serious military threat.
(Missile shield? Missile shield? Hell, son, we need orbital weapons platforms all around the world! We need to be able to shut down military operations by rogue states and terr'ists anywhere on the globe! Hot damn, we need nukes on the moon!)
Karma: T-rexcellent.
Space exploration should no longer exist as a competitive sport. Write your representatives and let them know that you support US cooperation with China in space.
A cooperative approach would be nice, but look what competition has gotten us so far: going from the first man-made satellite to walking on the moon in 12 years, with the first powered flight only about 50 years before that. It's been over 30 years since we've been to the moon, isn't it time we go back?
Nor can democracy stop a thousand nuclear warheads. Come on, why would any nation with the technology to go to the moon and hurl rocks at us not just use nuclear weapons instead? They surely provide far more bang for the buck.
And what could the moon possibly do for an expansionist nation? Do you have any idea how much it costs to send 1kg to the moon? In human history, expansion has always been driven by quest for resources--whether those resources are wealth (Spain), land (America), natural resources (Japan), or whatever else. But how could the moon provide these things more efficiently than underutilized parts of Earth? I tell you what, it would be a hell of a lot cheaper for the Chinese to send people to shiver in Antarctica than on the moon, and they'd probably get more out of it.
No, we have nothing to fear from a Chinese base on the moon. Until we have the technology to make transport to and from the moon cheap, it's a useless pile of rock.
Gates' Law: Every 18 months, the speed of software halves.
I always considered the moon landing an achievement for the entire human race.
Acknowledged that Americans had the technology, supplied the funding, and risked their people in pursuit of the world-wide dream of getting to the moon.
Americans have been too the moon, but much more importantly humans have been to the moon.
Dragon Action Figures
For lack of reason, not for lack of ability.
I think you're missing the point. A chinese base with an accellerator and a big pile of rocks wouldn't void MAD, far from it, it would keep it alive. US anti-ballistic missile technology may well be able to nullify their ICBMs soon, and the thought does NOT sit well with them, nor should we expect it to. Particularly given the recent shift of US policy from quiet imperialism to very very loud blatant imperialism.
On the other hand, interceptor missiles are pretty useless against the types of projectiles in this scenario, at the very least it's a MUCH harder job, to really nullify them you'd have to knock the heat shielding off very early in the trajectory, and if they're big enough even that wouldn't work. Deflecting them a touch isn't going to make things much better either. So this sort of capability could be what keeps MAD alive for the rest of the century, or at least a few crucial decades...
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Friends don't let friends enable ecmascript.
Yeah, show me the jails filled with political prisoners in America. Now go to China and say the government sucks.
Show me the tanks that rolled over the anti-war protestors in San Francisco. I want to see the footage. I have video clips of the massacre at Tianeman square. I want to compare the two.
Show me the forced segregation camps in America. I want to compare it with the planned cities in China where you are required to work, but not allowed to live.
Show me the forced sterilizations in America because you're poor. I want to compare it with the Amnesty International reports of forced abortions and sterilizations in China.
Show me the prisons filled with Atheists or Muslims in America. I want to compare it with the prisons in china filled with Fulan Gong.
It's really a shame there isn't a mod in slashdot for total idiot.
China IS a gray distopian soviet nightmare that murders its own people.
The United States has provided the greatest freedom and prosperity of its people than any other nation or civilization in the history of the planet. If it isn't utopia, it's as close as you're going to get on this world.
Get a dose of reality and understand that the culture and civilization embodied by the United States is the most morally superior culture and civilization in the history of the planet.
You can tell a great deal about the character of a man by observing those who hate him.
The American army is not invincible. Bush is pouring money down the toilet like it was going out of fashion. Look up the cost of each American cruise missile vs. the cost of Iraqi buildings. Look up the news item regarding how the Pentagon misplaced a trillion dollars. Look at the U.S. economy.
A person I know works with a major U.S. military contractor, on a vehicle project, in the 20 ton range. These things have huge pneumatic shocks; almost no natural force on Earth can touch 'em. And just the other day, they had to scrap a $2,000,000 vehicle because some asshole American grunts were joyriding the fucking thing off a cliff, for kicks. The troopers who pulled this stunt got off scot-free.
America is going to go down, hard, if they don't shape up. Their commanders don't understand cost-effective warfare. The Roman Empire fell because it alienated its satellite states, misused the legions, and because its leaders were mad with power and decadence. It can happen again.
A lack of an atmosphere is a real concern there. Not due to the enviromental needs of the human occupants, but due to the simple fact that any matter floating around the moon will hit it.
The Earth can at least burn up some fairly large pieces of space debris. The moon just sits there and takes it all in.. I wonder how a moonbase would handle say, even a basketball-sized rock flying in at 100km/h?
So yeah, they could hurl rocks....they just better watch out for what's naturally floating around them...
Hmm... interesting theory. So you're saying that the moon is a means for a Chineese attack on the U.S.?
You do realize that the Pacific ocean is easier to traverse than the distance between the earth and the moon?
You do also realize that the U.S. has demonstrated the effectiveness of nuclear submarines as a "last strike" deterrant?
Do you think it is possible that rather than nuking the U.S., the Chineese goverment wants to use this for genuine research, some nationalist bragging rights and as an asset to build or develop international relations?
Beyond the possibility of the ping-pong ball undergoing explosive decompression (a good thought in and of itself): .5 km rocks, viva the ping pong ball bombs from space!
IANAPM (I am not a physics major) but, wouldn't the lack of air resistance remove the one thing that actually causes ping-pong balls to be even remotely slow? And to heck with
Any connection between me an logical thought is purely coincidental
I assert that my comment is only my opinion, not that of any employer, past, present or future.
Nor can democracy stop a thousand nuclear warheads. Come on, why would any nation with the technology to go to the moon and hurl rocks at us not just use nuclear weapons instead? They surely provide far more bang for the buck.
Within your lifetime, we will have the technology to stop nuclear missles. Look how far we have come with primitive technology like the Patriot Missile. It is unlikely however in your lifetime we will have the technology to stop a 5 million ton rock. There are no theories. We can't nuke it, tha will cause just as much damage. Using some kind of thruster would be impossible due to energy constraints. Something radically different would have to be constructed...
I don't read or respond to AC posts
All China has to do is be able to drop rocks on American cities. The threat will make us dance with them.
How is your concern any diferent to that of anyone else in the world whilst there is the current American administration with a view that the US can do what it wants, when it wants, to whomever it wants through the threat of military force?
Shouldn't we all be dancing together anyway? What has happened to diplomacy and negotiation in an attempt to improve everybody's lot?
It would mean more to the lives of their citizens and eventually the world if they spent the money on bioengineering, medicine, genetic modification of crops, training their people in science and engineering, IT, and such. Space is a less efficient expenditure of resources, despite how cool and prestigious it is.
At my Washington office a few weeks ago, I met with a visiting Japanese parliamentarian who specializes in science and technology issues... In his view, the Chinese would be on the moon within three to four years.
parliamentarian
this is the only evidence he offers that China is even thinking of going to the moon. some random Chinese dude? well, I'm convinced, let's start a space race.
Bob Walker man must be a real patriot to be so concerned about the plight of America's space prestige. Who is this great thinker? oh wait... Bob Walker is a corporate lobbyist. For who? For these guys. Nice list of clientelle. I wonder if any of those people would benefit from increased public paranoia about a foreign space program?
-sweatyb
It breaks my pluginses, my precious!
This was a red herring when it was first brought up, and it's a red herring now. The amount of money spent on space research and space flight is miniscule next to the amounts of money spent on social programs and "defense". It's a drop in the bucket, and tends to have quite an impressive return on investment. (All that R&D NASA did paid off here on earth too.)
There are reasons to support space flight, and reasons not to, but "stealing the bread from the mouths of hungry babes" ain't one of 'em.
--grendel drago
Laws do not persuade just because they threaten. --Seneca
Try again. It's not NASA's neglect, it's your neglect. You that are US citizens... You told Congress that the money spent on NASA was better spent on social services and defense, among other things. If you want a strong space program, tell your congressmen!!!
You (Congress) funds big NASA programs, and NASA staffs up and leases/builds facilities to support it. Then Congress takes away half the annual funding, thinking they can push the costs out. In fact, the G&A costs (people, facilities) remain constant, so extending projects increases overall costs. Then Congress wails about cost over-runs. And don't get me started about the plethora of NASA facilities in powerful congressman's back yards that do nothing but generate local revenue.
Watching what's happened to NASA from the inside (Johnson Space Center in Houston and Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville), it's a sad site to see. Lots of really good people have left, fed up with the lack of mission and bureaucracy. Thank god there's still a dedicated few left.
A clever person solves a problem, A wise person avoids it. -Einstein
If you actually don't believe there is any sort of God, why do you care if other people do?
The same reason Jews cared about the Spanish Inquisition, and Christians cared about Muslim invaders. The ruling class will attempt to force its religion on all its subjects. The severity of the ruling class's reaction to refusal to believe is completely unpredictable, and in the case of the USA, becoming more severe every day. Our ATTORNEY GENERAL is so goddamn puritan that he couldn't stand to be pictured with a fucking STATUE of a woman with a naked breast. Yes, he's an idiot, but he could roll out the FBI and get all atheists arrested and systematically destroyed if he wanted.
THAT is why we care about other people believing in God - because they care about us NOT believing in it.
"Our Population?"
My understanding is that an exceeding number of "American" inmates are actually somebody else's population, which is to say, illegal aliens.
Of course, we've got that whole tradition of opening our doors to "wretched refuse yearning to breathe free" thing going on, so I guess it's OK.
Which brings up the question: How many poor people fleeing oppression in their respective homelands have sought (and found) refuge in America versus China? How many people, citing oppression, have fled (or tried to flee) America versus China?
See, problem is, you and I sitting in our offices and tippy-tapping away on our computers know jack squat about oppression, only that talking about it passes time online and in coffee-houses.
25 years ago I thought like you did; heck, I even convinced myself that *I* was oppressed; it was all kinda sexy and cool and martyr-y and stuff. But I travelled a bit, met a bunch of different type of people, took on some large responsibilities, and came to the realization that America Ain't So Bad, and many's the place that's a Lot Worse. I felt lucky, and out of that grew thankful.
Still, it's fun to complain about stuff, ennit? Even more fun, bear in mind, to be able to complain about stuff...
It is pretty curious that (if?) other countries get into other conclusions. I do understand fascination with getting to other planets / moons; there is certainly coolness factor involved... but does that really make any actual _sense_? I wouldn't care one way or the other if this was a cheap thing (or just labour intensive) to achieve. People do all kinds of cool albeit unnecessary stuff, all the time. Much of that ends up on Slashdot main page. And that's fine. But moon base.... that actually requires lots of resources, much better spent on almost any other project one can think of.
I am pretty positive that these mission plans (if they exist) are based on national pride of nations involved. It's hard to justify them on any materialistic or startegic reasons, at this point. But then again, chances are that perhaps such space travel will _never_ be realistic. Laws of physics are tricky to bend, after all... so perhaps now is as good time as any.
As to private companies; it's good that they foot the bill. But assuming that's a sign of some interest based on some good reasoning is bit of fallacy. After all, some people thought Iridium made sense and had a chance to succeed. And while I never did, I think moon/Mars missions have much slimmer chances to have any economic value that might justify the costs. But that's not my money, fortunately; no tax dollars involved.
I like paying taxes. With them I buy civilization -- Oliver Wendell Holmes
Some people think settling would help with overpopulation. That's bit absurd; considering how few humans moon (or Mars) could support -- compared to world population -- costs of even trying that would outweigh any nominal gains. Plus, if techniques to support humans in such hostile places are developed, they could much more easily be used here in earth, to solve / alleviate overpopulation problems.
And this all leaves us the whizzbang coolness factor. Wouldn't it be cool if there were actual human beings living in moon, Mars or perhaps Venus? Sure. It'd be cool in the same way as running a unix-system on C64 (no irony here; I think both are cool in their own ways). Nothing to argue about, but I'd prefer it being pointed out openly, as the main reason.
I like paying taxes. With them I buy civilization -- Oliver Wendell Holmes
I give them about 3 years before they've either made good on their threats and actualy seem to be going after this goal, or are shown to have simply issued another boast.
If in 3 years they have indeed begun the initiative to colonize the moon, you can be certain the US will get off it's collective ass and either infuse NASA with massive amounts of bucks and initiative, or simply kill them and replace them with a new goverment entity to acomplish the same goal.
there are two reasons for this.. A: if china sets up a weapons base on the moon we would be at a serious disadvantage the moment they develop anti-ICBM type defenses. Although this isnt near to happening now... it is an inevitability as far as the progression of tech in nearly all major societies.
The second reason... The US has one of the greatest attitudes possesed by man. Out right jealousy. If they do it, then we damn well WILL do it too AND better. Who cares about the expense... it's important simply because it is.
The reason NASA is grounded right now ISNT because they fucked up.... it's cause they fucked up and dont have much of a purpose thats beneficial to the miltary/social/economical intrests of the US corporations or populace. Put china upstairs.... and you can garentee our space program will geta shot in the arm well beyond anything we could imagine about the star wars project or otherwise.
nothing like good old economic/political rivalry to get the inovation engines running.
--Idiots, Every single one of YOU, A flaming mass of conglomerated morons, hey wait a second, isnt that how RAID works?
Until we have a cost effective launch process to get things in orbit and beyond the moon will only be a place to visit and plant a flag. Notions of Moon bases are very premature. The Chinese have yet to get a man in orbit using 30 year old tech. They might get to the moon in 10 years or so but they don't have the tech prowess to do it in a cost effective manner. I predict they go for 1 or 2 moon shots then realize what a waste of money it is using current chemical fuel rockets and drop it.
This is a great thing, and I hope China does it sooner rather than later, because maybe it would be another "Sputnik" event which would jolt America into getting serious about space and not twiddling around with a useless space station.
China is clever: they clearly want to not compete with us in "traditional" tech stuff but leapfrog into the Next Big Thing right away so they are well established when the rest of the world ctaches up. Maybe theyre' working just as hard on Nanotech.