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Gloomy Outlook For Console Sales
Thanks to CNET News for their article indicating sales of consoles are predicted to slump until a new crop of machines is introduced. The article references a new survey from iSuppli which "expects [console] sales to be flat for the year and down as much as 10 percent in 2005", and points out that pressure will start to build to introduce next-gen hardware, quoting an analyst as saying "I don't think (that), when the companies developed this generation of consoles, they were prepared for it to be so short."
... and only a handful of good games for each.
Breaking news: NES sales down 100%! Decrease blamed on church vandals.
Scratched Emulsion
If they cut the prices down for the Xmas buying season, they should get a surge of sales followed by a bigger slump after January. But the increased number of consoles sold will increase the number of games being bought. Gamecube has never been a major factor. They shipped 80,000 units this quarter. 80,000? The other two are projecting 20-24 million for the year, Nintendo will be lucky to get 3 million out the door. Hmm, "temporarily stopped production to clear excess inventory". Sound familiar Dreamcast fans?
Frankly, I see no reason to upgrade to an Xbox or PS2, because all the latest games that I've wanted (GTA3/VC) are available on the PC (which work beautifully with my Radeon 9500 Pro), and as far as the PS2 goes, the only advantage I've seen of it over my Dreamcast is that it has full scene anti-aliasing. Otherwise, I'm perfectly happy with my PC and Dreamcast for my gaming needs.. and I'm not paying $50 for the games (I don't buy many PC games, and DC is cheap).
I will admit, however, that I'm tempted to get a GameCube, simply because they have some really high quality games available for that machine. I am just holding out for a little while longer, because it looks like they'll probably drop the price again on that device, and I'd rather buy new than used.
Never hit your grandmother with a shovel, for it leaves a bad impression on her mind...
An article none too well done, I'd say. Everyone knows that money isn't made by selling consoles an sich, but by selling the games that run on them.
The article makes it appear as if that analyst has been studying graphs, without taking into account any external factors. Now that I come to think of it, it is very much possible he did just that, and drew some silly conclusions out of it.
"Those innocent fun games of the hallucination generation"
Any person who reads about videogame sales will know that console sales will be down. Sony has finally started selling less PS2 consoles since their debut. That number will only get smaller and smaller. And since the PS2 is the largest selling of the consoles, sales will be down. But that's not to say that the people who already have PS2s aren't saving money for an Xbox or a Gamecube.
It's like sex, except I'm having it!
I have one relative that I know is getting a PS2 for his Christmas present. I don't really care about Sales as such. I remember in the NES and SNES days I played one or two different games a week. Did I buy them? NO! I went to Blockbuster. (Though they are alot more expensive these days.) I had lots and lots of different types of games to choose from. That is why Nintendo is still around because of the sales of all those games. I actually bought a few N64 Games. I'm not really happy with that though because of the about of real RPGS released on the system... 0 in my mind. I got really mad at Nintendo for allowing Square to release FF for playstation. That was my main reason for buying a PS2 to play all the FF stuff for PS1!
If I ever get a game cube it will be because of my kids. They are getting to the point were they like to play video games. I might not like the themes of Nintedo stuff in general, but hey its is stuff that I grew up on and I don't mind my kids playing on that platform. I'll most likely stick with Sony for my stuff though.
Not everybody out there wants or needs the same games you like. As was said they have all the games they really want. As soon as the GC drops (note to original poster: probably as soon as they stop offering the free game at the end of this month) I'll have the three major systems, but I like a wide variety of games and spent a vast amount of time playing them. Not everybody is a hardcore gamer. Telling people they need to upgrade when they are happy with what they have is silly. You don't buy a new car when you love the one you have do you?
Trust Your Technolust
Well, duh, consoles don't often need to be rebought; of course sales can't be maintained at high levels. But I think there might be a bigger picture.
How long was it after these systems came out that people were already wondering about the PS3? It seems like we're always getting ready for the next big thing. The problem I have is that it seems like we're not using our current stuff to it's full potential. The cycle seems to move too fast.
I personally would be in favor of the big three just skipping the next generation and doing their best to work on the generation after that. Wait until we're running out of new ground to break on the GCN/PS2/XBox before we start rolling out new stuff.
As a side benefit, maybe toward the end of the cycle we'll see more better games come out instead of unfun flashy graphics, as by then we won't be as awed by the graphics that the system is capable of. And we also get to save money on that system we won't have to buy.
Unfortunately, the nature of the market means that the next gen systems will come as soon as possible to beat the other guys. Too bad the big three all can't agree to not release systems before some future release date. The could make some big media event of it: Fifth-gen release day! Geeks everywhere salivate in anticipation!
Really, I think the best thing would be for companies agree to such a date privately, and then not talk about next generation systems whatsoever, so that we keep demanding support of the current systems as long as possible instead of anticipating the next big thing. (That would probably be some kind of anti-trust collusion thing, though.) There were some great late era NES and Super NES games, but nobody was paying attention anymore when they came out.
I know many won't agree with me. Please reply.
My stupid web site
Reuters originally reported that 80,000 figure in early August. They left off a zero. They really sold 800,000.
To quote this article: "Amusingly though, it wasn't quite as bad for Cube owners as Reuters (and subsequently most of the Western world including the surely journalistically watertight BBC) reported - with 800,000, rather than the reported figure of 80,000, Cubes shifted in the last quarter."
It amazes me how uninformed people are about the sales of the Nintendo Gamecube. I sware I think they just want to see the worst happen. Almost every article I read that says the Gamecube is in third place is referring to U.S. sales. World wide, Nintendo is selling slightly more than the XBox. But you never read about the demise of XBox.
the cosmos in 20 words or less: thumbuki.com
You need to read up on what happened between Nintendo/Square/Sony during the transition period after the SNES.
Basically, Nintendo set them up with a bunch of SGI workstations for N64 development, and Square then screwed Nintendo by jumping ship and taking as many developers as they could (Enix included) with them.
If *anyone* deserves scorn, it's Square for backstabbing the company that published their (could-have-been) last shot at a successful game: Final Fantasy.
--Jeremy
Jesus was a liberal
Since Reuters reported 80,000 Gamecube consoles SHIPPED, not sold, they were accurate. There is a reason Nintendo stopped manufacturing the system until later this Fall.
:P Perhaps a bloody nose via the Gamecube will be enough, however.
And most people here or on VE3D, etc. that talk about Gamecube being third place are talking about the USA (or Europe), because that is where we live. This isn't the Playstation 1 or Super Famicom era - Japan is no longer the biggest or most important market for videogames (the world-wide best selling game last year, Vice City, wasn't even released in Japan until recently). Even ignoring the current state of the market, Sega Saturn sold really well in Japan, even beating the Playstation for a long time - but that honestly didn't matter to most game fans in Europe or America. We didn't get the Japanese games, usually, and retailers didn't choose to keep stocking the Saturn here just because it was doing well in Japan!
That said, I think a lot of the people that seem against Nintendo are hoping Gamecube does poorly not necessarily out of malice, but because Nintendo has needed a big punch to the face for years. They need to finally get it through their heads that they aren't the number one videogame console company anymore, and that they have to sotp dictating what gamers want. For example, would any GC owner have really objected to the system using standard DVD media? The system was showing that this was limitation almost from launch. Can Miyamoto (and his various synchophants like that guy from Silicon Knights) stop giving interviews where they tell us that games like Vice City are not the future of gaming, whether we like it or not? How about stop trying to sell us the 'big idea' that GC and GBA connectivity is a huge revolution in console gaming? Or that online gaming doesn't add anything? How about lowering their licensing fees so they are no longer the most expensive in the industry?
Nintendo is starting to be more humble, and they are starting to make some good changes (not essentially ignoring third parties anymore is a nice touch). But they need to do more. I think going third party might even be really good for them, personally, but I know that I will get crucified for suggesting that.
There is no excellent beauty that hath not some strangeness in the proportion. -- Francis Bacon
"I don't think (that), when the companies developed this generation of consoles, they were prepared for it to be so short."
Of course they weren't. The people who developed the big three believed, as do I, that the generation would last just as long as the previous ones: 5-7 years. And by rights, they should-- there's no real reason to produce a new console machine for 2004-2005, primarily because the advances in the technology are not significant enough to warrant a whole new system purchase. Incremental upgrades and piece-meal improvements are fine for PC gaming, where consumers have less of a monetary risk ($175 for a video card upgrade vs. $300 for an entirely new system, plus the $50 game in either case). If PS3 were to come out next year with only a new video chipset and maybe two or three minor improvements-- which is what it looks like is going to happen-- I won't buy it, I doubt the majority of gamers would buy it, and Sony's console business would spiral down the toilet. The manufacturers need to learn a lesson from Sega and the Dreamcast, specifically-- the first man in rarely winds up being the one who survives 'till the end.
"Why Subscribe?" Good question...
In Japan, a lot of used bookstores stock used copies of old games. Lately, used games are also spreading to video rental chains, such as GEO (the company that took over all of the bankrupt YES stores.)
You can find a lot of real gems for under 2,000 yen (about US$15). Then there are the few rare Super Famicon / SNES games that are still going for 6,000 yen (about US$40). (Most of those were published back when games used to cost over 10,000 yen.)
The real finds, though, are for "dead" systems like the DC and Saturn. PowerStone for $2, Shenmue for $3, Panzer Dragoon Saga for $5, heaps of Bomberman goodness at various prices around there. Some of these are even new, unsold copies.
The Japanese game industry even tried, unsuccessfully, to shut down used game sales.
Oddly, what you cannot do in Japan is rent games. It seems the only choice is to buy them and then sell them back to the used bookstores.