Gloomy Outlook For Console Sales

Thanks to CNET News for their article indicating sales of consoles are predicted to slump until a new crop of machines is introduced. The article references a new survey from iSuppli which "expects [console] sales to be flat for the year and down as much as 10 percent in 2005", and points out that pressure will start to build to introduce next-gen hardware, quoting an analyst as saying "I don't think (that), when the companies developed this generation of consoles, they were prepared for it to be so short."

Comments

Too Many Consoles!!!

[Anonymous Coward]

... and only a handful of good games for each.

NES

[Phoenix Dreamscape]

Breaking news: NES sales down 100%! Decrease blamed on church vandals.

Makes sense...

[bjb]

I wouldn't say that the market is completely saturated, but probably anyone who really wants a console (and can afford it) has one already. Then there are probably hold-outs (like myself) who own (say) a Dreamcast, are loving the idea of the cheap prices on the games and really see little need for "upgrading".

Frankly, I see no reason to upgrade to an Xbox or PS2, because all the latest games that I've wanted (GTA3/VC) are available on the PC (which work beautifully with my Radeon 9500 Pro), and as far as the PS2 goes, the only advantage I've seen of it over my Dreamcast is that it has full scene anti-aliasing. Otherwise, I'm perfectly happy with my PC and Dreamcast for my gaming needs.. and I'm not paying $50 for the games (I don't buy many PC games, and DC is cheap).

I will admit, however, that I'm tempted to get a GameCube, simply because they have some really high quality games available for that machine. I am just holding out for a little while longer, because it looks like they'll probably drop the price again on that device, and I'd rather buy new than used.

Re:Makes sense...

[Matrix272]

anyone who really wants a console (and can afford it) has one already...

You mean you have to be able to afford a new console when you buy it? Damn... I just put the XBox on my Visa...

Frankly, I see no reason to upgrade to an Xbox or PS2, because all the latest games that I've wanted (GTA3/VC) are available on the PC (which work beautifully with my Radeon 9500 Pro), and as far as the PS2 goes, the only advantage I've seen of it over my Dreamcast is that it has full scene anti-aliasing.

Normally, statements like "I see no reason to upgrade" really infuriate me, but I'll try to refrain from screaming profanities in your direction.

If the Dreamcast and the PC offer every game you want to play, then good for you. For the rest of us though, there are Exclusive games (with a little label on the box, too) that are only available for one console (hence the label Exclusive). For instance, the XBox still has Halo (although it will, eventually, come out for the PC), Fable, if it ever comes out, and Knights of the Old Republic. The PS2 has quite a few, including Final Fantasy X, and soon, X-2. It's also got the Gran Turismo series, which is always good. The GameCube has Zelda, Mario Sunshine, Metroid, and F-Zero. There are plenty of games that you'll never be able to experience if you don't have a console... and many of those experiences are worth far more than the $50 price tag.

I can understand that a lot of people don't have the money to spend $150-300 on a new console, and I can appreciate that. I certainly didn't have a GameCube the day it came out either... If money is the issue, that's one thing... but saying that there's just no reason to get one is just ignorant. I'm not saying that to be rude, I mean you literally don't know what's out there for each system until you take a good, long serious look at the options.

What about the games then?

[LaundroMat]

If the games sell well, there's no need to worry about decreasing console sales, is there?

An article none too well done, I'd say. Everyone knows that money isn't made by selling consoles an sich, but by selling the games that run on them.

The article makes it appear as if that analyst has been studying graphs, without taking into account any external factors. Now that I come to think of it, it is very much possible he did just that, and drew some silly conclusions out of it.

Re:What about the games then?

[PainKilleR-CE]

I like the statement that console sales will be down 10% in 2005, which just happens to be the year that most estimates have already stated the next generation of Nintendo and MS consoles will be along (and probably the PS3 as well).

How much work does it really take to assume that this generation's consoles' sales will decrease in the year that most people assume the next generation's consoles will arrive?

Of course console sales will be down

[chrismcdirty]

Any person who reads about videogame sales will know that console sales will be down. Sony has finally started selling less PS2 consoles since their debut. That number will only get smaller and smaller. And since the PS2 is the largest selling of the consoles, sales will be down. But that's not to say that the people who already have PS2s aren't saving money for an Xbox or a Gamecube.

Who Cares? I want more options and cheaper games.

[kabocox]

I have one relative that I know is getting a PS2 for his Christmas present. I don't really care about Sales as such. I remember in the NES and SNES days I played one or two different games a week. Did I buy them? NO! I went to Blockbuster. (Though they are alot more expensive these days.) I had lots and lots of different types of games to choose from. That is why Nintendo is still around because of the sales of all those games. I actually bought a few N64 Games. I'm not really happy with that though because of the about of real RPGS released on the system... 0 in my mind. I got really mad at Nintendo for allowing Square to release FF for playstation. That was my main reason for buying a PS2 to play all the FF stuff for PS1!

If I ever get a game cube it will be because of my kids. They are getting to the point were they like to play video games. I might not like the themes of Nintedo stuff in general, but hey its is stuff that I grew up on and I don't mind my kids playing on that platform. I'll most likely stick with Sony for my stuff though.

Re:Price Cuts

[edwdig]

There's no way Microsoft is project 20-24 million for the year. The Xbox has been out for 2 years already and it's sold maybe half that. Do you really expect the remaining 4 months of the year to equal the sales of the past 2 years? I'm sure Microsoft isn't expecting anywhere near that.

Nintendo only shipped 80,000 units this past quarter because they shipped a huge number right before Zelda came out the quarter before. They expected Zelda to make a huge jump in system sales, unfortunately, it resulted in a barely noticable jump, hence an oversupply of GameCubes.

Oh, take a look at the Japanese sales charts for the past few weeks. PS2 sales have been going down and GameCube sales have been going up. GameCube sales were higher than PS2 sales last week. Oh, and as tends to happen occasionally, the PS1 outsold the Xbox in Japan last week. Although the Xbox did beat the Wonderswan Crystal last week, it still couldn't beat the Wonderswan Crystal + Color models combined.

Skip the next gen.

[JimTheta]

Well, duh, consoles don't often need to be rebought; of course sales can't be maintained at high levels. But I think there might be a bigger picture.

How long was it after these systems came out that people were already wondering about the PS3? It seems like we're always getting ready for the next big thing. The problem I have is that it seems like we're not using our current stuff to it's full potential. The cycle seems to move too fast.

I personally would be in favor of the big three just skipping the next generation and doing their best to work on the generation after that. Wait until we're running out of new ground to break on the GCN/PS2/XBox before we start rolling out new stuff.

As a side benefit, maybe toward the end of the cycle we'll see more better games come out instead of unfun flashy graphics, as by then we won't be as awed by the graphics that the system is capable of. And we also get to save money on that system we won't have to buy.

Unfortunately, the nature of the market means that the next gen systems will come as soon as possible to beat the other guys. Too bad the big three all can't agree to not release systems before some future release date. The could make some big media event of it: Fifth-gen release day! Geeks everywhere salivate in anticipation!

Really, I think the best thing would be for companies agree to such a date privately, and then not talk about next generation systems whatsoever, so that we keep demanding support of the current systems as long as possible instead of anticipating the next big thing. (That would probably be some kind of anti-trust collusion thing, though.) There were some great late era NES and Super NES games, but nobody was paying attention anymore when they came out.

I know many won't agree with me. Please reply.

80,000? More like 800,000

[clu76]

Reuters originally reported that 80,000 figure in early August. They left off a zero. They really sold 800,000.

To quote this article: "Amusingly though, it wasn't quite as bad for Cube owners as Reuters (and subsequently most of the Western world including the surely journalistically watertight BBC) reported - with 800,000, rather than the reported figure of 80,000, Cubes shifted in the last quarter."

It amazes me how uninformed people are about the sales of the Nintendo Gamecube. I sware I think they just want to see the worst happen. Almost every article I read that says the Gamecube is in third place is referring to U.S. sales. World wide, Nintendo is selling slightly more than the XBox. But you never read about the demise of XBox.