Gloomy Outlook For Console Sales

Thanks to CNET News for their article indicating sales of consoles are predicted to slump until a new crop of machines is introduced. The article references a new survey from iSuppli which "expects [console] sales to be flat for the year and down as much as 10 percent in 2005", and points out that pressure will start to build to introduce next-gen hardware, quoting an analyst as saying "I don't think (that), when the companies developed this generation of consoles, they were prepared for it to be so short."

Comments

Too Many Consoles!!!

[Anonymous Coward]

... and only a handful of good games for each.

NES

[Phoenix Dreamscape]

Breaking news: NES sales down 100%! Decrease blamed on church vandals.

Makes sense...

[bjb]

I wouldn't say that the market is completely saturated, but probably anyone who really wants a console (and can afford it) has one already. Then there are probably hold-outs (like myself) who own (say) a Dreamcast, are loving the idea of the cheap prices on the games and really see little need for "upgrading".

Frankly, I see no reason to upgrade to an Xbox or PS2, because all the latest games that I've wanted (GTA3/VC) are available on the PC (which work beautifully with my Radeon 9500 Pro), and as far as the PS2 goes, the only advantage I've seen of it over my Dreamcast is that it has full scene anti-aliasing. Otherwise, I'm perfectly happy with my PC and Dreamcast for my gaming needs.. and I'm not paying $50 for the games (I don't buy many PC games, and DC is cheap).

I will admit, however, that I'm tempted to get a GameCube, simply because they have some really high quality games available for that machine. I am just holding out for a little while longer, because it looks like they'll probably drop the price again on that device, and I'd rather buy new than used.

Re:Makes sense...

[Matrix272]

anyone who really wants a console (and can afford it) has one already...

You mean you have to be able to afford a new console when you buy it? Damn... I just put the XBox on my Visa...

Frankly, I see no reason to upgrade to an Xbox or PS2, because all the latest games that I've wanted (GTA3/VC) are available on the PC (which work beautifully with my Radeon 9500 Pro), and as far as the PS2 goes, the only advantage I've seen of it over my Dreamcast is that it has full scene anti-aliasing.

Normally, statements like "I see no reason to upgrade" really infuriate me, but I'll try to refrain from screaming profanities in your direction.

If the Dreamcast and the PC offer every game you want to play, then good for you. For the rest of us though, there are Exclusive games (with a little label on the box, too) that are only available for one console (hence the label Exclusive). For instance, the XBox still has Halo (although it will, eventually, come out for the PC), Fable, if it ever comes out, and Knights of the Old Republic. The PS2 has quite a few, including Final Fantasy X, and soon, X-2. It's also got the Gran Turismo series, which is always good. The GameCube has Zelda, Mario Sunshine, Metroid, and F-Zero. There are plenty of games that you'll never be able to experience if you don't have a console... and many of those experiences are worth far more than the $50 price tag.

I can understand that a lot of people don't have the money to spend $150-300 on a new console, and I can appreciate that. I certainly didn't have a GameCube the day it came out either... If money is the issue, that's one thing... but saying that there's just no reason to get one is just ignorant. I'm not saying that to be rude, I mean you literally don't know what's out there for each system until you take a good, long serious look at the options.

What about the games then?

[LaundroMat]

If the games sell well, there's no need to worry about decreasing console sales, is there?

An article none too well done, I'd say. Everyone knows that money isn't made by selling consoles an sich, but by selling the games that run on them.

The article makes it appear as if that analyst has been studying graphs, without taking into account any external factors. Now that I come to think of it, it is very much possible he did just that, and drew some silly conclusions out of it.

Re:What about the games then?

[PainKilleR-CE]

I like the statement that console sales will be down 10% in 2005, which just happens to be the year that most estimates have already stated the next generation of Nintendo and MS consoles will be along (and probably the PS3 as well).

How much work does it really take to assume that this generation's consoles' sales will decrease in the year that most people assume the next generation's consoles will arrive?

Re:Price Cuts

[edwdig]

There's no way Microsoft is project 20-24 million for the year. The Xbox has been out for 2 years already and it's sold maybe half that. Do you really expect the remaining 4 months of the year to equal the sales of the past 2 years? I'm sure Microsoft isn't expecting anywhere near that.

Nintendo only shipped 80,000 units this past quarter because they shipped a huge number right before Zelda came out the quarter before. They expected Zelda to make a huge jump in system sales, unfortunately, it resulted in a barely noticable jump, hence an oversupply of GameCubes.

Oh, take a look at the Japanese sales charts for the past few weeks. PS2 sales have been going down and GameCube sales have been going up. GameCube sales were higher than PS2 sales last week. Oh, and as tends to happen occasionally, the PS1 outsold the Xbox in Japan last week. Although the Xbox did beat the Wonderswan Crystal last week, it still couldn't beat the Wonderswan Crystal + Color models combined.

80,000? More like 800,000

[clu76]

Reuters originally reported that 80,000 figure in early August. They left off a zero. They really sold 800,000.

To quote this article: "Amusingly though, it wasn't quite as bad for Cube owners as Reuters (and subsequently most of the Western world including the surely journalistically watertight BBC) reported - with 800,000, rather than the reported figure of 80,000, Cubes shifted in the last quarter."

It amazes me how uninformed people are about the sales of the Nintendo Gamecube. I sware I think they just want to see the worst happen. Almost every article I read that says the Gamecube is in third place is referring to U.S. sales. World wide, Nintendo is selling slightly more than the XBox. But you never read about the demise of XBox.