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Earth's Asteroid Risk Downgraded

Posted by simoniker on from the i-was-worried-for-a-while dept.

xanthines-R-yummy writes "Relax, everyone - the risk of a gigantic asteroid colliding with Earth just got smaller! Nature reports: "A new survey revises down the likelihood of a massive asteroid hitting the Earth by 20-30%. We're only due to collide with rocks larger than one kilometre across roughly once every 600,000 years, it concludes." Whew! What a relief!"

5 of 231 comments (clear)

  1. I feel so safe by Atragon · · Score: 4, Insightful
    Wow, we're only slated to be hit by a rock bigger than 1km wide every 600,000 years...

    Man, I guess I won't have to worry about any rocks smaller than 1km big, it's not like they'll do any real damage.

  2. Re:Okay, so we don't have to worry... by cgranade · · Score: 5, Insightful

    That still gives you 100 yrs, right?
    Seriously, tho, that would be one of statistician's largest pet peeves: thinking that because outcome X has not occured at all in a period in which it is predicted to occur, that X is overdue to occur. IIRC, this is the Gambler's Fallacy. Somehow I'm reminded of the joke where three statisticians go duck hunting. First one shoots, and misses- too high. Second one shoots, and misses- too low. Third one yells, "We got 'em!"

    --

    #define DRM chmod 000

  3. Duh by benk · · Score: 5, Insightful

    > "Relax, everyone - the risk of a gigantic asteroid colliding with Earth just got smaller!"

    Surely the risk hasn't changed, just our estimate of it...

    --
    -- "For every complex problem, there is a solution that is simple, neat and wrong." -- HL Mencken
  4. These statistics mean very little in reality by Animaether · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Not to slight the research and the pure theoretical chance calculations and all, but..

    The statistics are only as good as the sampling set.. and suffice to say, we're *not* watching every single asteroid out there - greater than 1km (diameter) or not.
    And any single one asteroid we're not watching has the potential to be that 'killer asteroid'.
    And we already know that we've had 'near misses' only realized until after the asteroid had already passed.

    Which means that for any foreseeable future, the practical chance of us getting hit by an asteroid of size 1km in diameter or larger, tomorrow, is 50%.

    Either we do, or we don't. And we won't know until it either happens, or not.
    That's what the uncertainty of the limited sampling set brings us in practice.

    Which doesn't mean that if it doesn't hit tomorrow, that the chances for it hitting the day after tomorrow is 75%. The chances remain 50%.

    What's more interesting is predicting the chances of a particular asteroid we -are- spotting are of hitting us.

  5. eh, more likely by vena · · Score: 3, Insightful

    humans are the planet's worst fear.

    humans are humans' worst fear.