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Perfect Weather on the Net
ctwxman continues:
I always like to start at NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) for a look at the dynamic models. Each is run using somewhat different equations, making them often come up with different, quite contrary solutions. Some of these models, like the GFS are worldwide in their coverage and forecast out an amazing 16 days (note: the word accurately was not used in the last sentence). Once the dynamic models are through, we can massage them against past performance under similar circumstances at specific places. These are the statistical models, referred to as MOS (Model Output Statistic) models. Again, there are somewhat different solutions from different models. If none of these work for you, run your own. There are programs available to allow you to run your own model, specifying the domain, grid spacing, time interval, etc. The most commonly used research model of this type is the MM5, produced at Penn State University. Run it on your PC! Of course, it's freely available and supported. Sometimes, the data you want already exists, but not in the form you'd like to see it. That's where software like GrADS comes in. Put out by the Institute of Global Atmosphere and Society's Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, GrADS claims to be an 'interactive desktop tool that is used for easy access, manipulation, and visualization of earth science data.' I agree with all except 'easy.' I run a version of GrADS on my server in order to produce localized forecast graphics like this that wouldn't otherwise be available. Yes, looking at satellite imagery and radar is a lot of fun... but the real fun is knowing what will be there before you look. And, astoundingly enough, we are significantly more accurate (and I get assaulted significantly less often at the grocery store) than even a few years ago.
Look out the window.
It's a great job... a magnificent physics puzzle, solvable with high level math and some acquired skill.
Coupled with the fact that nobody expects weathermen to be right anyway, must be a great living.
Imagine a nuclear physicist saying, "You know, it's funny, but yesterday all indications were that today was going to be a smooth day for our reactor. How about that, eh?"
--------
Bleah! Heh heh heh... BLEAH BLEAH!!! Ha ha ha ha...
It's gonna be cold, eh?
to email me: take my
Meanwhile, weather forecasters around the world were puzzled Sunday as access to weather data over the internet crawled to a halt. A Whitehouse representative denied rumors of a terrorist attack on the weather infrastructure.
The mysterious cause of the delays in weather data are under investigation.
Skiers and Riders -- http://www.snowjournal.com
Here in Seattle the weather forcasts are wrong more than they are right. They're so bad I quit checking the forecasts years ago.
If forecasters got paid based on accuracy, they'd owe me money!
Didn't know wives had tails!!? I guess we must descend from the monkeys after all, then.
How many of them have real meteorological degrees anyway?
I ain't watchin the Weather Bunnies cause of thier metrological (sp) ability.
Anyone ever note the frequency of pregnancies on the Weather Channel. Place must be a god damn rabbit warren.
those who understand METAR and TAF and those who don't...
e.g.:
(Terminal Airport Forecast of J-F Kennedy Airport)
2002/11/17 09:14
KJFK 170914Z 170913 03021G32KT 6SM -RA BR OVC012
TEMPO 0913 3SM RA BR OVC008
FM1400 02013G20KT 5SM -RA BR OVC012
FM2100 36011KT 5SM -RA BR OVC020
FM0400 34009KT 5SM -RA BR OVC015
Yes, there are a zillion sites that already have the finished forecast, but this is Slashdot. We don't need no stinkin' forecasters!
Find a problem that has already been solved, and re-solve it.
Ahh, but consider: 74 degrees west is the same as 286 degrees east. Thus, NYC is obviously much further east than it is west. :P
Forecasting the weather is all about the quasi-geostrophic theory (or semi-geostrophic theory if you're in graduate school).
QG Theory tells us were there will be differential vorticity advection through a layer or differential temperature advection through a layer (dT/dz increases with height) there will be height falls and omega (vertical advection term) will be negative thus rising motion.
So next time you feel like insulting your local meteorologist and state its a job where they are paid to be wrong, remember if you can find out where cyclonic vorticity advection increasing with height is located and what exactly the laplacian of that will tell you regarding as the impetus for change in the troposphere.
Yes! I listen to NYC Speedcore and do math at 3AM. I suggest you try it too.
"If you don't like the weather in New England, just wait five minutes."
- Mark Twain
-kgj
Red sky at night, sailors delight
Red sky at morning sailors take warning
(And the important corrollary...)
Brown sky all day, your in L.A.
I'm not so sure. Suppose your "75 and Sunny for the next 72 weeks" forecast is interrupted by a "78 and Sunny"? People would call for your resignation I'm sure. Here in Buffalo, you could forecast "Sun and clouds, between 25-75 degrees in the morning, with a 47.3% chance of a rogue snow squall by 3PM. Possibility of thunderstorms this evening, maybe some clearing towards dawn." People would praise your accuracy =)
Slashdot makes no sense whatsoever. People are always bringing up beowulf clusters when they don't apply. Now we have a topic where they are used all over the place, and no mention.
weathermen and economists. They can have long successful careers without ever being right.
solvable with high level math and some acquired skill.
Solvable? I don't know what high level math you've been smoking, but in my math classes, a problem is solvable when it can, you know, be solved. So kindly tell me what the weather will be in Raleigh, North Carolina on September 16, 2028, and I will stop implying that you're a buffoon. Probably a smarmy one, at that, if you're like all those goddamn weathermen on TV.
I think there is a world market for maybe five personal web logs.
Any one know how to build a dopler radar?
wind sock
http://tinyurl.com/3t236
Tom to Ground Control, come in. Over.
Ground Control here, what's problem, Tom? Over.
I was just looking at my home weather status and my A/C seems broken, again. Could you get a tech over there to check it out? Over.
Sorry, Tom, You've started chsshhhh chshhhshshhh -king up cshshhhhhhhhh...
And the famous corrolary, "If the birds are in the sky and upside down, you're drunk and lying on the ground." Courtesy Bill Engvall.
I Browse at +4 Flamebait
Open Source Sysadmin
You could have at least credited Lewis Black with this one.
"So what's the weather like today John?"
"Uh...nice. Back to you."
It's that place on the other side of the window by your desk.
What is that "window" thing you are talking about?
less is more
Then may I suggest the Naked News?
There are programs available to allow you to run your own model, specifying the domain, grid spacing, time interval, etc.
I have to admit, that is WAY cooler than creating a tornado in SimCity. The only way these tools could possibly come to good use among the slashdot crowd is in the area of theoretical knowledge relating to city-destroying superstorms.
who are those slashdot people? they swept over like Mongol-Tartars.