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Linux To Power NWS's Storm Prediction System

Mr. Plow writes "The National Weather Service is migrating to Linux-based IBM workstations and has purchased 900 IBM computers and 160 servers to do so." He includes links to coverage at Forbes (a Reuters wire service story there), Government Computer News, and Computerworld.

154 comments

  1. Of course... by kinnell · · Score: 5, Funny

    With windows all you see is blue

    --
    If I seem short sighted, it is because I stand on the shoulders of midgets
    1. Re:Of course... by Ske · · Score: 4, Funny

      and with IBM it is BIG blue...

    2. Re:Of course... by Peer · · Score: 1

      That's why some people use Sun.

    3. Re:Of course... by the_flatlander · · Score: 0, Offtopic

      Great. Does this mean that now SCO is going to claim to *own* the weather too?

    4. Re:Of course... by jsebrech · · Score: 1

      You know what they say...

      Every blue screen has a beige lining.

    5. Re:Of course... by Stephen+Samuel · · Score: 1
      Great. Does this mean that now SCO is going to claim to *own* the weather too?

      That'd be just fine by me.... Next big storm, I get to sue SCO for damages!.

      --
      Free Software: Like love, it grows best when given away.
    6. Re:Of course... by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      True, but there are currently few and it is getting to be fewer all the time.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    7. Re:Of course... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      wow, is that why the weather guy can never predict the weather accurately. ;)

  2. linux to power.... by mrsev · · Score: 4, Funny

    ... I use electricity for power. Should I change to this "linux". Maybe linux is more secure.

  3. One Problem... by JamesD_UK · · Score: 5, Funny

    Who wants reports favourable to penguins?

    1. Re:One Problem... by WankersRevenge · · Score: 1

      Dude - you have a really nice eye. Your photography is quite good. I commend you.

    2. Re:One Problem... by JamesD_UK · · Score: 1

      Thankyou, at last I know that putting the site in my .sig is generating some traffic. Which did you like?

  4. I guess... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    we can expect even less predictable forecasts while they get used to the new system, eh?

    1. Re:I guess... by chadm1967 · · Score: 1

      Actually, the NWS is very good at predicting what is not an exact science.

      If you were trying to be funny, then I'm sorry, you failed.

  5. Bravo by enodev · · Score: 3, Interesting
    Now I'll now 185 seconds earlier that a flash just struck my home :-).

    The previous systems contained Hewlett-Packard PA-RISC processors with clock speeds ranging from 100 to 120 MHz. Although those specifications aren't directly comparable to the 2.4-GHz clock speeds of the dual Intel Pentium 4 Xeon processors, the new workstations, which have 2G of RAM each, run the various AWIPS applications noticeably faster than their predecessors, Piercy said.

    For instance, one AWIPS app that used to take more than 60 seconds to start up now loads in 18 seconds, he said.

    That's a increase of about 48 times of computing power and the app just loads 3 times that fast? Something has to be seriously wrong with this setup!
    1. Re:Bravo by kinnell · · Score: 4, Insightful
      That's a increase of about 48 times of computing power and the app just loads 3 times that fast? Something has to be seriously wrong with this setup!

      Startup times are affected more by disk access times than processor speed. Disk access times don't increase anywhere near as fast as processor clock frequencies.

      --
      If I seem short sighted, it is because I stand on the shoulders of midgets
    2. Re:Bravo by Silvers · · Score: 2, Informative

      The poster above about the disk times in application load performance is right now, however also...

      You make the mistake of assuming a 1:1 ratio of CPI (clock cycles/instruction) between each of the two systems, compounded by a difference in the number of instructions needed to complete a certain task, followed by the amount of parallel pipes in each processor... etc etc etc

    3. Re:Bravo by Silvers · · Score: 1

      That should read 'right on'.

      What, theres a preview button?

    4. Re:Bravo by AmVidia+HQ · · Score: 3, Insightful

      load times is a wrong benchmark to pick, it doesn't show proccessing power well. Load times are mostly disk-bound.

      Load times more than 3x faster IS a LOT faster. And no doubt they will have many many times faster actual data crunching speed.

      --
      VIVA1023.com | Political Fashion.
    5. Re:Bravo by enodev · · Score: 1, Redundant

      I suppose they've upgraded their data storage system as well (160 servers...). And application load time is also greatly depend on memory, cache size and linear transfer time. Just skipping 2 generations of computer evolution should really bring you more than a factor 3. But then again they probably start it just once a day.

    6. Re:Bravo by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It wouldn't be just proccessing power, but also disk speed.

      You have to read the application from the disk before you can start proccessing it and disk speeds haven't increased at the same rate as CPU's have.

    7. Re:Bravo by ocelotbob · · Score: 2, Insightful
      Read that quote again:
      ...Although those specifications aren't directly comparable to the 2.4-GHz clock speeds of the dual Intel Pentium 4 Xeon processors...

      The old machines were RISC boxes which were pretty damn quick on a Mhz per Mhz basis. While I wouldn't classify them as fast, they're definitely not 24 times slower. Given the clock cycle efficiency of the processors, I'd imagine that all things considered, the new boxes probably have at best ~20-30 times the raw computing power. Now, add things like disk speeds, memory speeds, bus speeds, and other things that haven't increased at the same rate as processor speeds, and things start making more sense. Add in the fact that startup of applications is probably a fairly serial process, a dual processor machine probably won't help that much in that portion of execution time metrics.

      --

      Marxism is the opiate of dumbasses

    8. Re:Bravo by Xenolith · · Score: 2, Informative
      There are still old HP systems running the database and application servers. That is part of the reason. These systems will be replaced shortly as well with x86 architecture. Hopefully with up to date and better optimized database software.

      Assuming it is the application I am thinking of... it was more like 5 minutes to start up, not 60 seconds. Yes, the HP systems were ancient (relatively).

      --

      Journal
  6. Linux, eh? by Mondoz · · Score: 1

    Hmmm... I don't need that many computers to forecast many SCO lawsuits in their future.

    --
    /sig
    1. Re:Linux, eh? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Manditory SCO lawsuit reference in a Linux thread met.

    2. Re:Linux, eh? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      As more government agencies cut costs by using Linux, the government has more and more reason to oppose SCO. So this is good news for us.

    3. Re:Linux, eh? by tiger99 · · Score: 1

      You don't need any computers to forecast the number of SCO lawsuits. When this one is over, there will be no SCO.

  7. Interesting by frankthechicken · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Interesting, according to this

    Linux first appeared on the NWS scene in 1995 in the form of Slackware

    And in comparison to their previous HP-UX systems:-

    . . .the switch has helped increase data processing speed.

    "The performance that we measure with our benchmark has increased by over 100% since we completed phase one of our Linux migration," happily boasts Piercy.

    1. Re:Interesting by christophersaul · · Score: 1

      Some of these speed increase quotes in stories are far from interesting. If they replaced the systems with the latest HP workstations, doubtless they'd see a great speed increase as well. It's not exactly newsworthy to read 'company upgrades systems with newer systems and they are faster than the old ones'.

    2. Re:Interesting by plcurechax · · Score: 1

      If they replaced the systems with the latest HP workstations, doubtless they'd see a great speed increase as well. It's not exactly newsworthy to read 'company upgrades systems with newer systems and they are faster than the old ones'.


      How about the fact they replaced $30,000 HP/UX PA-RISC systems with $5,000 Linux/i386 systems and were impressed with the upgrade? Actually these numbers are made up, but are the rough size of the price difference.

    3. Re:Interesting by 4of12 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      That's the key issue.

      The purchase price of high performance RISC machines has always been O(US$10^4) and the acquisition cycle a period of several years.

      While you can still get high performance RISC workstations for those prices, it doesn't make any sense when comparing price/performance.

      In 1993, PC's significantly underperformed RISC machines, so paying 5-8 times the prices was worth it.

      In 2003, PC's perform equitably to the best RISC workstations: you need a really good reason not get a really great Linux workstation for $6-8K instead of high-end RISC hardware for $20-100K.

      --
      "Provided by the management for your protection."
    4. Re:Interesting by christophersaul · · Score: 1

      That would be news, but only if we knew what the price of the HPUX upgrade would have been. The fact they've done it suggests it made technical and financial sense, or at least one of the two. Sun's prices have come down massively recently, making them a lot more competitive on the server, at least, although they only have a single cpu lower cost workstation now.

      Still it is a good story!

    5. Re:Interesting by karlandtanya · · Score: 1

      O(US$10^4) would that be US$(10^4) or, would that be UUUUSSSS$$$$10000?

      --
      "Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, it doesn't go away." - Philip K. Dick
    6. Re:Interesting by iminplaya · · Score: 1

      Don't forget (900+160)*$699=$740,940.00

      --
      What?
    7. Re:Interesting by The+Lynxpro · · Score: 1

      "In 2003, PC's perform equitably to the best RISC workstations: you need a really good reason not get a really great Linux workstation for $6-8K instead of high-end RISC hardware for $20-100K."

      That figure is not counting power consumption requirements/costs though.

      Chips such as the PowerPC970 (ie the "G5") are RISC-based, and the University of Virginia did find that PowerMac G5's were price competitive to x86 based "solutions." Thus affordable RISC-based solutions are possible.

      And as for the XEON, check out what SETI is showing on their webpage. The AMD Athlon64 is leading the pack amongst x86 processors in terms of number crunching abilities. Unfortunately the AthlonFX64 does not support SMP, which this XEON solution does...

      --
      "Right now, somewhere in this world, Scott Baio is plowing a woman he doesn't love," - Peter Griffin, *Family Guy*
  8. So what's the forecast? by trystanu · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Unsettled weather for the duration of the migration?

    Are forecasts really getting better as computer power increases? I know that Metrology is always in need of more computer cycles to model the weather, but have forecasts actually improved with this power? Are there any success statistics around?

    1. Re:So what's the forecast? by SpaceLifeForm · · Score: 4, Funny

      They keep saying that the 5 day forecast is just as in-accurate as before, but now, they know this fact with more accuracy than ever before.

      --
      You are being MICROattacked, from various angles, in a SOFT manner.
    2. Re:So what's the forecast? by frankthechicken · · Score: 3, Informative

      Well, since Edward Lorenz and his discovery of chaos, many of the current weather prediction systems are chaotic, and thus the forecast becomes less accurate over a longer time period.

      Like many chaotic equations, the systems of weather patterns follow a `normal' path for a period of time before becoming chaotic. So this method is useful in predicting specific weather patterns for as long as 5 days in advance. After this point though the chaotic nature of the systems become apparent, with different scenario runs of similar data leading to completely different results.

      So, more advanced computer power may lead to a better understanding of the chaotic equations which drive our weather and other environmental factors, though I for one remain sceptical, there are just too many factors to take into account for anything more concrete than the weather might possibly be . .

    3. Re:So what's the forecast? by Xenolith · · Score: 5, Informative

      Well, to throw one stat out at you. In 1987, the NWS had a probability of detection score for tornadoes of 25%. This past year it was nearly 80%. Now given, part of that improvement is better trained employees and an excellent skywarn/spotter network. But yes, bigger and better computers are helping to improve the NWS mission.

      --

      Journal
    4. Re:So what's the forecast? by mummers · · Score: 0

      ...a probability of detection score...
      Not even a probability of forecast score, eh? But very impressive they knew they didn't detect the other 75% of tornadoes they didn't know about...

      --
      --This isn't a man who is leaving with his head between his legs.
    5. Re:So what's the forecast? by Xenolith · · Score: 1

      To clarify, the probability of detection (POD) measures whether a tornado that occurred was predicted. In other words, was there a warning issued before the tornado touched down.

      --

      Journal
    6. Re:So what's the forecast? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
      Are forecasts really getting better as computer power increases?

      Short answer: yes.

      Long answer: computational fluid dynamics has always been difficult to do if the results are to appear before the actual time they're to occur. The more computational power you can throw at this, the more physics that can be represented in the model. Simply improving the physics will improve the model output.

    7. Re:So what's the forecast? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative
      In 1987, the NWS had a probability of detection score for tornadoes of 25%. This past year it was nearly 80%. Now given, part of that improvement is better trained employees and an excellent skywarn/spotter network.

      *cough*cough* You sure that wouldn't have something to do with NWS fielding the WSR-88D (aka NexRAD) doppler radars? there is a boatload of information one can extract from that data. One of the particulars is the tornado vortex signature (TVS) which usually forms anywhere from 15 to 30 minutes in advance of a tornado. One of the nice things about TVS is that the system can detect it and then notify the severe weather guru who can issue a warning.

    8. Re:So what's the forecast? by mummers · · Score: 0

      I think you kindly for your clarification. One has to admit that's a significant improvement in prediction rate. An intersting statistic would be on false positives i.e. when the system predicted a tornado, or similar event, but never actually happened.<br>

      --
      --This isn't a man who is leaving with his head between his legs.
  9. We have are workstations already by Xenolith · · Score: 5, Informative

    I'm a NWS forecaster. We have our new workstations... they are pretty darn nifty. They are dual Xeons (2.4 ghz) running RedHat 7.2. These are much improved over the old HPs, which were J200 (overview). The bad news is that the database and application servers are still the old HPs. These are scheduled to be replaced in the near future as well.

    --

    Journal
    1. Re:We have are workstations already by tacocat · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Did you have to fight for getting Linux onto your desktop or was there the cost motivation to push it along?

      My impression is that any beaurocratic organization would be loathe to consider anything but Microsoft on the grounds that selecting Microsoft is safe. Examples of this would be trying to use Linux in large companies.

    2. Re:We have are workstations already by cwernli · · Score: 1

      running RedHat 7.2

      Do you have a Progeny support contract too ?

    3. Re:We have are workstations already by Xenolith · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I'm a meterologist, not computer dude. But my guess is that since the software was already written in a unix environment (HPUX), choosing Linux made it the logical choice.

      --

      Journal
    4. Re:We have are workstations already by Walterk · · Score: 1

      Oi! Shouldn't you be working?!

    5. Re:We have are workstations already by tacocat · · Score: 0

      So you're they guy I get to blame when it rains on my parade!

    6. Re:We have are workstations already by twiddlingbits · · Score: 1, Funny

      With the speedy and powerful new computers he has already computed the forecast so now has time to post to /.

    7. Re:We have are workstations already by Xenolith · · Score: 1

      Blame away. The skin is pretty darn thick after years of abuse.

      --

      Journal
    8. Re:We have are workstations already by girouette · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The computing context is similar where I work (Meteorological Service of Canada). There is a big difference between the forecaster's (technical) desktop and the clerical desktop. Our technical desktop never belonged to MS WIndows. Cost remains a concern, obviously, which is why we are moving away from proprietary Unix.

      For what it's worth, our next-generation workstation is going to be java-based. (Joint effort with a handful of European countries led by Germany.) http://www.dwd.de/de/Technik/Projekte/NinJo/ (German language)

      Dunno about the NWS, but for our clerical desktop to move away from Microsoft would be nothing short of miraculous.

    9. Re:We have are workstations already by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative
      Did you have to fight for getting Linux onto your desktop or was there the cost motivation to push it along?

      It was a combination... cost was a big driver, but also that the developers of the new AWIPS apps pushed it that way.

      These aren't your normal desktops. They run very custom applications and in some cases have three LCD monitors per CPU.

      That said, Forecasters will normally have a Windoze box to the side for surfing the web, email, etc.

    10. Re:We have are workstations already by Jeff+DeMaagd · · Score: 1

      Exactly how old are the HPs? That page says all the expansion are in the form if EISA slots rather than PCI or some HP proprietary bus slots.

    11. Re:We have are workstations already by geekoid · · Score: 1

      I, for one, welcome are new Linux wielding meteorologist overlords.

      I have noticed that forcasts seem farther out then they were 20 years ago, and a lot more accurate? Is that an acurate observation, or am I just getting more forgiving in my old age?

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
  10. Windows by RevMike · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Of course... With windows all you see is blue

    Of course, the NWS is using Linux to replace HP-UX workstations.

    1. Re:Windows by _Pinky_ · · Score: 1

      Of course what would really help is if they got off TCL/TK for half their apps...

    2. Re:Windows by FatAssBastard · · Score: 1

      Correct, but Windows NT/2000/XPPro was supposed to be the replacement for Unix workstations. Linux may not be taking market share directly from Windows, but it is taking market share that Windows was supposed to get (according to MS' PR department, anyway).

      --
      /.: why the hell am I here?
  11. Dear NWS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Dear NWS,

    As I understand, you've recently upgraded your workstations to some slick IBM machines running Linux. Congrats. Now, about your old workstations. I'd be willing to take the off your hands, I won't even charge anything. I just want to see them go to a good home, not some dumpster behind your building -- ya know, [insert their address here].

    Thank you,
    Me.

    Fortress of Insanity

    1. Re:Dear NWS by Xenolith · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Yep, we have some 90 lb. paperweights at our office. The OS has been wiped from the hard drive. Is their a linux flavor that will work on a HP J200?

      --

      Journal
    2. Re:Dear NWS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think I could get NetBSD to run on it, so hand them over.

    3. Re:Dear NWS by AndIWonderIfIWonder · · Score: 1

      Probably... Try debain, they seem to support the HPPA, apparently.

    4. Re:Dear NWS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Not exactly Linux, but...

      http://netbsd.org/Ports/hp300/

      Why not go ahead and use a dead OS on dead hardware?

    5. Re:Dear NWS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative
      I work at NWS and they are decommissioning the HPUX boxes by the dozens/hundreds in many different locations around the county.

      They will be surplused by the General Services Adminstration like any other old piece of government hardware. See ifyou can find your local depot/auction location.

  12. Linux replacing Unix : just standard evolution by slb · · Score: 4, Interesting

    What would have been far more interesting is a Windows to Linux migration with the same improvement in performance and TCO.

    --
    http://www.transparency.org
    1. Re:Linux replacing Unix : just standard evolution by DarwinDan · · Score: 1

      Why NWS would (in the case of the parent post) want to use Window$ for something as critical as forecasting in the first place is beyond me...

      --
      $DEITY bless $NATION
    2. Re:Linux replacing Unix : just standard evolution by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ...a Windows to Linux migration with the same improvement in performance and TCO.

      No, no, no. The improvements in performance and TCO would be many orders of magnitude higher!

  13. Maybe this will help Linux's respectability by Maestro4k · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Having someone big and respected like the NWS using Linux and announcing it publically should help Linux's respectability quotient in the US a lot. I'm glad to see this happening, both because it increases Linux's usage out there, and because it'll save us money (IIRC, the NWS is taxpayer funded), and probably lead to more accurate forecasts. It seems every time the computers they use get faster/more powerful, the forecasts get better. :)

    1. Re:Maybe this will help Linux's respectability by Stile+65 · · Score: 2, Informative

      NASA and the Department of Energy use Linux, and have for years. They use Linux Beowulf clusters for computational fluid dynamics. Most of them have an SCI backbone for inter-node communications. Although, I guess nowadays for CFD you might as well write multithreaded code that's compatible with OpenMosix and, instead of spending a ton of $ on a cluster, run the simulations on your employees' workstations.

      Oh, and you might as well not bother imagining a Beowulf cluster of those babies... it's been done.

      --
      I claim first use of "Error No. 0B" - or "No. 0B error." It'll be the new ID 10T!
  14. Important to mention... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    That the migration is from HP UX boxes to Linux, not from Windows as some people might assume.

    1. Re:Important to mention... by lalleglad · · Score: 1

      You are right and you are right and you are right :-)

      It doesn't really matter, though. Success is not measured against how many people and institutions switch from Windows to Linux, but against success stories of the use of Linux as a platform and software on top of it.

      Free Software is about freedom, and that includes other's right to use whatever they want as long as we (I) am free to use what I want.

      It is as simple as that :-)

  15. powered by linux.... by tomstdenis · · Score: 0, Flamebait

    So what? Is every single Linux user news? John Smith of 45 Roadway now uses Linux!!! stop the presses!

    Also "using Linux" and just happening to have the kernel handy are two different things. Are the NWS guys likely to contribute back to the OSS scene? I doubt it. So who gives a shit if they use Linux?

    --
    Someday, I'll have a real sig.
    1. Re:powered by linux.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      At least RTFS (read the fucking summary)

      The National Weather Service is migrating to Linux-based IBM workstations and has purchased 900 IBM computers and 160 servers to do so." He includes links to coverage at Forbes (a Reuters wire service story there), Government Computer News, and Computerworld.

      If John Smith of 45 Roadway buys 900 IBM computers and 160 servers for Linux and gets covered at Forbes, Government Computer News and Computerworld, then yeah! I'd say that's news for nerds.

    2. Re:powered by linux.... by tomstdenis · · Score: 0, Flamebait

      Ok who really trusts the media anyways? They cover stuff that *sells* not that is *news*. Take the "tracey patterson case" [or whatever his name is]. Do I give a shit? No. Is it news at this point? No. Why are they covering it? Because americans are sick voyeuristic bastards who need to get out and dance or something once in a while...

      Tom

      --
      Someday, I'll have a real sig.
    3. Re:powered by linux.... by plcurechax · · Score: 1

      Are the NWS guys likely to contribute back to the OSS scene? I doubt it.

      Unsure about NWS, but I know Environment Canada employs (former?) kernel hackers.

    4. Re:powered by linux.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      they paid ibm for them and ibm is going to develop for linux as long as they have customers willing to purchase it.

      So, your point while valid for small minded people, failed to extend to the long term and missed the obvious benefit to the Linux Community in supporting one of our more powerful corporate supporters.

      Not to mention that when they need some extra functionality such as better desktops...they will be able to pay for it.

      Lastly, its a governement agency, and you should be happy that your tax dollars aren't being wasted on proprietary software. Once they train enough sys admins at NWV they can cut IBM support out of the picture and support themselves...thus saving tax people some money.

    5. Re:powered by linux.... by DarwinDan · · Score: 1

      Minus the profanity, I agree with you wholeheartedly Tom. The media is a business like any other and is out to make a profit. That's why we (as media "consumers") need to be careful of what we consider as "the truth" and take everything we hear with a grain of salt -- just as if a friend or relative told you that their megazillion corporation just installed Linux.

      And by the way, her name is Lacey Peterson...

      --
      $DEITY bless $NATION
    6. Re:powered by linux.... by Orp · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I, for one, give a shit. I am a meteorology professor who has been using Linux for over a decade. Having the NWS transition over to Linux means it is possible for me to run the same software that NWS operational forecasters are using. In fact, that's already possible - I have a copy of the AWIPS software on a CD-ROM sitting in my office, ready to install. This, in turn, opens the door for research possibilities and just as importantly, allows me to expose students to the kinds of software they will be using should they opt to work for the NWS (many do).

      I visited the Grand Rapids NWS office a month ago and most of the workstations were already running Linux. The SOO (Science Operations Officer) seemed to be pretty happy with this. Why shouldn't he - hardware and software costs go down, machines are faster, and the OS is something that most scientists are using anyway.

      Leigh Orf

      --
      A squid eating dough in a polyethylene bag is fast and bulbous, got me?
    7. Re:powered by linux.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I have to say that I agree, one thing that I believe is hurting linux / OSS is that every time someone migrates from CSS (Especially Windows etc) you get hundreds of people, the likes of whome frequent Slashdot shouting words to the effect "Y3ah!, c00l, Windowze/HU-sUX is toppled by Linux, we rule, M$ (or Microsloth / evil M$ / HewletCrapard etc) eat our shit..." etc. etc.

      It aint exactly going to impress the CIO / CEO of a major company that the very people who are portrayed as supporting / designing this software can be so childish.

    8. Re:powered by linux.... by geekoid · · Score: 1

      True. It didn't use to be that way. there was a time when the FCC gave money to the broadcasters to do the news. If that were still the case, we would e geting alot more up to date information coming out of Iraq, as welll as more pertinent local news.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    9. Re:powered by linux.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      NWS is an operational organization that mostly runs custom applications on linux. I don't think any kernel development is going on at NWS or the contractors that build the apps.

    10. Re:powered by linux.... by AmbyVoc · · Score: 1
      Here Microsoft continues on the subject:
      * Interoperability--In today's complex and heterogeneous computing world, customers and governments demand that important new technologies work well with a wide range of products and systems. That's why Microsoft will take all necessary steps to ensure that NGSCB interacts with other operating systems.


      Maybe you are just wrong...

      --
      - Voice of Ambience -
  16. My weather man well, frog by snkmoorthy · · Score: 3, Funny

    My frog, actually croakes and stares at the open window, whenever it is going to rain, otherwise he just stares at the TV - although I have started noticing recently, that he doesn't care much about rain if Sex in the City is on.

    --Sig here--

    1. Re:My weather man well, frog by johannesg · · Score: 1, Funny

      So does your frog use Linux?

    2. Re:My weather man well, frog by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      My cat dives under the bed if thunder is within his excellent hearing range. Long before I can detect it. Cat missing, storm coming. BTW, Cat does enjoy watching me surf the web using Redhat 7.1, KDE, and MozillaFirebird. He loves the bird thing.

  17. lies by n0k14 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Almost every day I read about a department, agency, company or even country switching to linux. I rarely read about switching from linux back to windows. Where is this inconceivebly high implementation and training cost for linux that micosoft keeps whining about?

    1. Re:lies by CaptKilljoy · · Score: 1

      RTFA, this is a HP-UX to Linux conversion.

      My tinfoil hat theory: x86 Linux is eating into the market share of proprietary Unix faster than it is for Windows, and MS knows it has a better chance of convincing people to switch if they don't have to dump their hardware.

  18. Practical Outcome of This Change? by BallPeenHammer · · Score: 2, Interesting
    I'm curious about the expected practical outcome of this change. Presumably, they would be using the same prediction routines, but on faster boxes.

    Would this mean that they would get the same predictions, just a little faster?

    Would more capable machines mean that they could run some more-complex versions of the prediction routines they run now? Say, with more grid points, or smaller time divisions?

    Are the current prediction routines OS-dependent, so that they'll have to be ported to the new Linux OS? Is that easy or hard?

    What effect does the new Linux OS have on future application development? Are the existing development tools HP-UX oriented? Does that mean they would need a new tool set to do their development?

    1. Re:Practical Outcome of This Change? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      AWIPS is used mostly for severe weather forecasting. The 42 seconds saved, as quoted in the article, is enough to get a Tornado Warning out.

      This is not about trying to predict if it's going to be nice out next weekend.

    2. Re:Practical Outcome of This Change? by geekoid · · Score: 1

      great questions.
      I am begining to think there is a market for a magazine that gets relevent answer to the topic at hand.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
  19. Re:all you see is blue by Technician · · Score: 2, Funny

    Actualy I see a storm brewing from the Redmond area. It could be a big one.

    --
    The truth shall set you free!
  20. Re:Blame away. by Technician · · Score: 1

    OK. I guess that is why they are called errographers. I think Redomnd is trying for the title.

    --
    The truth shall set you free!
  21. Re:all you see is blue by IM6100 · · Score: 1

    Why Redmond? This move is killing more proprietary Unix boxes, not Windows boxes.

    --
    A Good Intro to NetBS
  22. Why not using distributed.net... by Ummite · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Why not using free systems like distributed.net, wich is 1) more powerfull and 2) free. People would be glad to help predict better weather, since actually they can't predict correctly 24h in advance ....

    1. Re:Why not using distributed.net... by pease1 · · Score: 1
      Timliness is everything with the weather.

      It's difficult to predict when a distributed process will finish... someone out there decides to shut their machine down and go home... what happens?

      You wait for the the response to time out and then send it out to another node.

      Meanwhile the weather has come and gone, houses are destroyed and people might be dead.

      Something like distributed net would work fine for running, say, a global model for next year, or ten years out.

      AWIPS is used by forecasters to predict what's going to happen in the near future and more important monitor real time data streams like radar and satellite imagery and then to process watch/warnings that have TTL's in the hours, minutes, even seconds.

  23. Re:all you see is blue by Technician · · Score: 1

    More desks needing apps. The biggest thing keeping Redmond on the desktop is off the shelf software selecton. When the Linus Apps section gets bigger at Best Buy then the Apple section, then MS will be really worried.

    MS would prefer nobody uses a non-MS desktop (server also, but that is a big battlezone now).

    --
    The truth shall set you free!
  24. What about shutting you guys down? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I read a while back that proprietary forecasting companies wanted to shut down, or prevent, NWS from giving away for free, weather forecasts. Proprietary companies that make their living selling forecasts to news stations and others were complaining that the federal government wasn't supposed to compete with the private sector. I think there were even some legislative efforts under way.

    The article mentioned several other non-weather related areas in government where they were successful. Can't remember the details right now.

    Have you heard anything about this recently?

  25. Let's laugh at the sheep by t0ny · · Score: 0, Troll
    I love how the idiots make fun of things they dont understand.

    First, as I repeatedly say, this isnt an organization choosing "Linux". This is an org choosing IBM, who is intelligently exploiting a free product in order to sell their product. Im shocked more companies arent jumping on the OSS bandwagon for the same reason- having people make your programs for you, for FREE? Amazing!

    Second, when you have a huge system like weather prediction, nobody is going to use Windows for that. Nor is Windows even going after the mainframe market- Data Center Server is not what most people think it is.

    Finally, Windows NT/2000/2003 servers, if set up by somebody who actually knows what they are doing, are highly stable. The problem is most people dont know what they are doing, and just blame MS for their mistakes.

    --

    Manipulate the moderator system! Mod someone as "overrated" today.

    1. Re:Let's laugh at the sheep by gmack · · Score: 2, Insightful

      First, as I repeatedly say, this isnt an organization choosing "Linux". This is an org choosing IBM, who is intelligently exploiting a free product in order to sell their product. Im shocked more companies arent jumping on the OSS bandwagon for the same reason- having people make your programs for you, for FREE? Amazing!

      IBM is probably getting very good value for the money they spend on Linux but saying they get it for free is showing a complete lack of understanding on how IBM has been doing buisness for the past 3 years.

      Just off the top of my head.. they have three Linux development labs of their own staffed with people who have PHDs (not cheap) plus they contribute to OSDL.

    2. Re:Let's laugh at the sheep by t0ny · · Score: 0, Flamebait
      OHHH wow, they have some PHDs working there. what a commitment!!! Im sure a company with the size of IBM really needed to open up the wallet with THAT move!

      The fact of the matter is that they are jumping on a bandwagon, they can take advantage of a product which they need to put a minimal investment into (ask Sun how much they put into programming for Solaris, or as IBM how much they put into their mainframe OS's...), and use that tiny investment to drive up sales of what they REALLY sell, which is the $100k+++ mainframe hardware.

      Like I said, they arent buying "Linux", they are buying IBM. If it makes you feel better that its the other way around, I will allow you to do so (but just this once).

      --

      Manipulate the moderator system! Mod someone as "overrated" today.

    3. Re:Let's laugh at the sheep by Lxy · · Score: 2, Informative

      First, as I repeatedly say, this isnt an organization choosing "Linux". This is an org choosing IBM, who is intelligently exploiting a free product in order to sell their product.

      You can't be farther from the truth. In fact, some of these workstations are Dell. I've seen them with my own eyes, and in fact ran top on one of them *drool*.

      The NWS's AWIPS product has always run on HP-UX. A couple years ago they had started looking into linux because they'd get a free OS for cheap hardware, a definite advantage. They've been running linux and HP-UX side by side for a good year now, but it wasn't until a few weeks ago that AWIPS finally supported linux. Once the support came through for AWIPS on linux, they abandoned HP-UX.

      This was a move a long time coming, and I'm glad they went through with it. So no, they are not sheep, and you are an idiot.

      --

      There is no reasonable defense against an idiot with an agenda
      :wq
    4. Re:Let's laugh at the sheep by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I have a PhD and I'm cheap! By me dinner and I'm yours!

  26. The stone soup effect by (void*) · · Score: 0, Offtopic

    There is a magical stone which makes soup taste good. You take the stone and add to it carrot, potatoes, onions, and perhaps beef, if you like. Boil them in water, and the stone makes everything taste good.

  27. hi by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

    The US Air Force's New Tactical Forecast System runs on Red Hat 7.1. I think there is just one server at every base.

    When someone told me they wanted to accredit the NTFS system, I was like, WTF?

  28. they don't predict, by geekoid · · Score: 1

    they forecast.

    That is all.

    --
    The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    1. Re:they don't predict, by sik0fewl · · Score: 1

      From dictionary.com:

      fore-cast (forkst, fr-)
      v. forecast, or forecasted forecasting, forecasts
      v. tr.

      1. To estimate or calculate in advance, especially to predict (weather conditions) by analysis of meteorological data. See Synonyms at predict.
      2. To serve as an advance indication of; foreshadow: price increases that forecast inflation.
      Emphasis mine.

      Yes, they *do* predict.

      --
      I remember when legal used to mean lawful, now it means some kind of loophole. - Leo Kessler
    2. Re:they don't predict, by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well, they forecast and predict, though forecasting is more absolute, so they really predict...

      From Chaos theory, you can't predict nor forecast the weather. You would need a map that monitors every molecule in the air (i.e. fluid) and computing power to handle all those particles. All the "forecasting" engines do is look at a localized area and a limited number of dimensions (fractal) and make a best guess that goes back to Newton's laws (i.e. if the clouds are in motion and moving W->E from Chicago with X speed, Newton's law gives us a really good probability it will be in Erie, PA the next day. Some advanced math maybe involved (non-linear), but the model still looks at a point-a-to-point-b question (linear) because of the choice of initial conditions. The more initial parameters (doppler radar, sensors, measurements, etc...) helps, but the sensitivity to those conditions will increase exponentially. That's why the world models NWS supercomputers use sometimes (usually) blow up with weird results--like the ones that have a "end the world" scenario. Then again the ice age comes to mind ;) ...

  29. Simple answer by squarooticus · · Score: 1

    Echo chamber.

    You are only reading Slashdot, where Windows->Linux conversions are highly-publicized.

    Note: I love Linux, and can't stand using Windows, but that doesn't make this statement any less true.

    --
    [ home ]
  30. From what I know... by bleeper4 · · Score: 1

    I took a field trip (science camp) to the Wilmington NWS station in NC. The guy said they used about 80% linux (not Unix) boxes for work. This was back in July...

  31. The times they are a'changing by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I used to work as a Sys Admin for the NWS a a few years back where we used AWIPS(the forecast folks were in another building) - and even then the HP workstations were costly and slow. AWIPS was a closed system and we didn't directly do any development on them but because NWS had hardware contracts with HP we had to usually purchase their equipment. The problem was that the HP workstations/servers were so expensive (especially compared to PCs) that the office I worked for couldn't afford to upgrade them - we had a lot of old, slow and just clunky HPUX systems. Several times I suggested to management that switching to Linux on Dell machines (easily available through Fed government contracts) for our internal development would save a bundle of money and mean better equipment but was always dismissed with the claim that Linux was a toy system. Lo and behind, somebody in the NWS has finally seen the light! (Although, to be fair, the NWS AWIPS developers were investigating Linux long before management ever knew what was going on ...).

  32. HP shouldn't be surprised by Fess_Longhair · · Score: 1

    IBM also has the contract for the central supercomputing facilitity.

  33. Re: low bandwidth distributed computing won't work by plcurechax · · Score: 1

    Solutions like distributed.net where you have a variable number of available CPU cycles is bad because you NEED to be able to certain that a numeric model run will complete on time.

    The second more important reason is that distributed computing with low bandwidth like distributed.net, GIMPS, Seti@Home, forecasting cannot be packaged into the same sort of small request packets and process, and return the answer, because weather forecasting is based upon computational fluid dynamics in essances, you need to share interative intermedatary results with neighbouring "cells" that could be on a different processor.

    It is possible in a high bandwidth cluster a la a Beowulf cluster, but currently most forecasting uses many CPU'ed supercomputers where the memory and inter-CPU bandwidth is extremely high (>1Gb/s). Small area forecasting can be done on a SMP system.

    Short range forecasting up to about 72 hours is very good actually.

  34. NWS = Not Work Safe? by Teflonatron · · Score: 2, Funny

    Anybody else think 'not work safe' when they read the title?

  35. Re:all you see is blue by IM6100 · · Score: 1

    Is there an Apple section at Best Buy? I guess I hadn't noticed one locally. But since I can only afford Macs capable of running OS 9, I buy my Mac software on eBay.

    --
    A Good Intro to NetBS
  36. Microsoft at the NWS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

    The NWS used to have a very inexpensive site license contract with Corel for their word processing software - it fact, it was the "official" standard for internal document exchange; you could still get MIS Word/Project/Excel etc. but it was still pretty expensive even with the government discount. Keeping track of licenses was also a problem with the Microsoft software. (Interestingly, the Corel WordPerfect software used to have versions that would run on both Windows and Unix). I don't know if using Corel is still the case or not. Budget concerns (and possible privatization) have always been a big issue at the NWS and so I'd be a bit surprised if they switched to only Microsoft on the desktop - although to be compatible with other government agencies, maybe they would have had to give in to Microsoft. Switching to Linux for workstations should have been a no-brainer.

  37. Imagine by karlandtanya · · Score: 1

    never mind

    --
    "Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, it doesn't go away." - Philip K. Dick
  38. Re:all you see is blue by ccp · · Score: 1

    The biggest thing keeping Redmond on the desktop is off the shelf software selecton.

    I beg to differ.
    The biggest thing keeping Redmond in the desktop is the fact that the VAST majority of desktop users (not you or me, but the USERS) don't know what an OS is, don't know there are others, don't know they can change it, don't give a damn.
    And the truth is, they shouldn't.

    The desktop will still be an uphill battle long after the servers and the workstations are sewn up.
    This battle will be won like Stalingrad: one house at a time.

    Cheers,

  39. I work in weather research by pjp6259 · · Score: 1

    I've worked at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) for about 2 years now. And even when I first started Linux was the dominant force, and looked as if it had been for quite some time. All of the Software Engineers, and some of the scientists & managers have debian linux on their desktop. The rest have some form of windows.

    We use linux in development, when creating large clusters to run weather models on, and when deploying systems in the field. It's the clear first choice in OS (when we have the choice).

    --
    Computers don't make mistakes. What they do, they do on purpose.
  40. Re:all you see is blue by Technician · · Score: 1

    majority of desktop users don't know what an OS is
    When Linux machines are sold in places other than just Walmart (retail stores) and people can come in and play with them and discover multiple desktops, multiple users, network firewalls (IP chains, not XP killing all local network file and print sharing), and the biggest badest collection of included games and applications for 1/2 the money, then they will gain attention.

    I mean, how many MS users bought an apple I-Pod? How did they percieve it was the best portable music player? Linux needs the killer apps to get it noticed.

    If I didn't have to use the browser that has crashed or is about to at work, I'd be using something else.

    MS working very hard to make the desktop software robust is late to market. That and high prices has been the best driving force to put Linux on the desktop. They are working very hard to make it robust and have less BSOD's, but they are nor fixing the high cost.

    Cost and reliability may be killer app Linux has as soon as popular stablel software is percieved to be easy to buy off the shelf, install, and use.

    Quickbooks, TurboTax, Quicken, Electronic Arts, Sierra, etc. Are you listening?

    --
    The truth shall set you free!
  41. Re:all you see is blue by ccp · · Score: 1

    I really wish you were right, but it's just wishful thinking.
    Linux is great for the geek desktop, and for the corporate desktop. Your desktop, my desktop.
    The home user just doesn't care.

    That and high prices has been the best driving force to put Linux on the desktop. They are working very hard to make it robust and have less BSOD's, but they are nor fixing the high cost.


    And about cost: maybe you live in a very law abiding part of the world, but the home user DOES NOT PAY for software. He just makes an unauthorized copy. $5 for any software in the street.

    If MS really cracks down on piracy, then you'll be right, but for now...

    Cheers,

  42. Good Eye, by Avihson · · Score: 1

    I'll check back later, looks like we are killing your server.

    I saw only Black and White before the site slowed. B&W is a great medium, one that is hard to master, you have what it takes.

    Keep up the great work.

  43. AWIPS? by PatJensen · · Score: 1
    I'm an armchair weather researcher, and I have this question to ask: Why does NWS not make the executable or source code to AWIPS available to the public? I understand it runs on most modern UNIX's from the notes I've looked at, i.e. HP/UX, Solaris and Linux.

    We are indirectly paying the government for the development of NWS's weather platform but yet we, as consumers as information don't have access to the same platform for viewing that information? I use the NWS web site at least 4 times a day, looking at forecast discussions, alerts and radar data. I would rather pull this data over sat or the Internet and be able to view it with the same precision as NWS's meterologists. I have never been satisfied using a web browser to look and zoom in at active data.

    I participated in development of wx200d for Linux and FreeBSD (I actively developed the FreeBSD termios code) and I've used Windows based packages like Virtual Weather Station. I am dissatisfied knowing that my taxpayer dollars went to write closed source software that isn't available to me. I have a feeling that NWS contracts out to Unisys or other companies for AWIPS development and this is why it is not made available to the public. Do any inside NWS researchers or developers have any comments?

    -Pat

  44. Re:/. Persecution of Anonymous WARNING tsarkon by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Who gives a fuck, it's slashdot, not the damn FBI. Get your ass outside and get some sun, you pasty fuckin geek, and realize what's really important.

  45. Re:all you see is blue by gordyf · · Score: 1

    They may have the biggest selection of *included* games, but you won't be winning over the hearts of any gamers.

  46. Re:If MS really cracks down on piracy, then you'll by Technician · · Score: 1

    If MS really cracks down on piracy, then you'll be right, but for now..

    Actualy, been too close to exactly this. It's the part of the EULA that permits them to request an audit. Follow that with the Portland Oregon Public schools being requested for this audit. I know, there was lots of egg on face from the bad publicity, but do you think smaller businesses have a chance? I'd rather not find out.

    I disagree with any EULA that permits an envasion of my home or business. I simply do not have the resources to comply. I'm not willing to work for free for the BSA. Leaving this big hole in your company business plan is bad risky business. I'm not quite MS free, but I'm working on it.

    --
    The truth shall set you free!