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High-Tech Firms Worry About Taiwan-China Tensions
Andy Tai writes "This San Jose Mercury News story shows high tech companies in the Silicon Valley worry about a possible war between mainland China and Taiwan. Both play important roles in the computer industry and the U.S. depends on both to finance the federal budget deficits. Many businessmen hope that economic considerations will prevent both sides from marching down a self-destructive path."
the memory shortages several years back when the taiwanese warehouses and manufacturers we blown away by a typhoon?
Maybe now execs will start to see the true value of keeping their high tech centers located in stable political environments.
It's nice to think that what with war looming, the prospect of thousands of people being killed, all business men can think about is money. It sickens me.
When anger rises, think of the consequences.
Confucius (551 BC - 479 BC)
They say they don't want a war because it'd be unprofitable. Isn't avoiding unnecessary bloodshed a good enough reason anymore?
I ran a benchmark on my quantum computer, now I can't find it anywhere!
Come on, this is WHY it is cheap and effective to use offshore suppliers.
The reason that many countries are expensive is because they are safe and stable.
The laws, workforce, international situation are all good, you are likely dealing with an expensive country.
If you go to some country that has "political risk" the costs will be lower to account for this, everyone who does business with such a country must account for this risk.
If you want a safe stable place to do business keep it in a stable country, Don't put it in a semi independant nation/state mess on the other side of the world.
I think Micron qualifies.
********* sig: If you don't like the law, get filthy stinking rich, and buy a better one.
Many businessmen hope that economic considerations will prevent both sides from marching down a self destructive path.
Both economically and militarily, there won't be mutual self-destruction between mainland China and Taiwan. Instead, there will be one huge mammoth of a country squashing a football-field-sized other country.
And there won't be economic or military sanctions on China (the threat of which is what prevented it from harming Taiwan for so long) because now the US, the only country able to inflict any kind of sanctions on China, has vested interests in both countries.
The only thing China risks is reproachful looks at the UN for a while, then after everybody there is done looking really shocked, Taiwan will be history. Proof is, if the rest of the world had any kind of power against China's actions, Tibet would have been freed a long time ago.
In short: Taiwan's days are numbered.
"A door is what a dog is perpetually on the wrong side of" - Ogden Nash
But as I said before, a war between the two countries isn't likely. China knows the consequences of going into Taiwan; it would lead to American intervention and probably put an end to Chinese economic development and lucrative trade China does with the United States.
- A
there wil not be a war between china and taiwan for several reasons. now you need to understand some military history (which fortunately is my vocation, geekdom being my avocation).
first, china simply can't go to war with taiwan. (oh sure, they can fire some missles, but then see down the list.) see, to cross 70 miles of the strait of formosa (taiwan strait) would be an undertaking that would make normandy and okinawa be minor ops. they don't have the 1) airforce to provide cover, 2) the navy to carry them over, 3) the ability to protect the invasion from being observed from satelites, which would give us and taiwan advanced notice, 4) the ability to hold and maintain a beachhead once there. it doesn't matter if you have one million, or 10 million, troops in an invasion. if you can't support them, they're targets.
second, china built the three gorges dam. they have so much capital (even in communist china!!) tied up in it, it generates such a large portionof power. and, it is impssible to defend from air ro missile attack. we could take it out in about 10 minutes. and they're fscking toast.
third, china is so dependent upon the US trade for an in flux of capital and hard currency. anything more than sabre rattling, and we shut that off, they take a shit. they are fscked.
i could go on further. the cuyrrent regime is on its last legs. this is an in ternal power struggle between the old commies and the younger reformers. nothing else.
My problem? I was perfectly gruntled, until some numbnuts came by and dissed me.
Aside from the fact that China doesn't give a fuck about economic concerns, there isn't much chance of a war happening.
As unlikely as more people looking to China than the U.S. for hopes for a better future.
[o]_O
Not so simple. The mere existance of a Taiwan government provokes China. China's viewpoint is that Taiwan is simply a rebel republic, and that's why the USA can't establish formal relations with Taiwan for fear of upseting China.
Saddam had historical claims on Kuwait too ... you can always construe agression as internal conflict if you try hard enough.
Morally we all know Taiwan is an independent state, wether our governments recognise it as such or not.
It is just appeasement all over again.
Geeks should recall that neither is it wise to intentionally provoke a neighbour with 40 billion dollars in assets and a 99% desktop market share. It may be instructive to also remember those things called "ideals", that some people consider to be worth fighting for.
Because China goes around kill/jailing anyone that says negative things about the current goverment.
Because China doesn't give it's citizens the right to vote in a true/fair election.
Becuase China kills/jails those whos religion it doesn't agree with.
As to who gave people the right to be independent? I my opinion, and the opinion of the framers of the US Const., the Creator. Otherwise know as God.
it doesn't hurt if you keep most of your population at damn near the global poverty level.
China has been enjoying a truly amazing rate of economic growth for quite some time. Although the government tends to exaggerate the figures, the true figures are still very good. The amount of new construction in places like Beijing and Shanghai is incredible. Even in the interior, places that didn't even have running water not that long ago are getting telephones and TVs. The per-capita GDP is currently about $4,400, which is already not that bad.
China's leaders are totalitarian, but they have absolutely no incentive to keep their population poor. The richer their people are, the richer they are, and the more powerful their country is. They are smart enough to realize this.
Mod down posts with a "Free Mac Mini/iPod" sig, they're spam!
Of course they'd fail, since the U.S. couldn't allow them to succeed. But the fighting would devestate Korea and place a nasty strain on U.S. military resources, which are already stretched. Let's see, that would leave two of the most productive economies in Asia (Taiwan and Korea) in utter ruins, with millions of unemployed. And the U.S., which is already spending gazillions it doesn't have, would be spending gazillions more. So economic hard times here, for a bunch of reasons.
And that's the best case scenario. It assumes the DPRK doesn't have more than a couple of nukes...
It's not a troll. It's humor you don't agree with. That's ok and you're entitled to your opinion.
:)
:)
Obviously not everyone who disagrees with Pres. Bush is getting tossed into Gitmo, and it would be both an extension of the point and a fundamental fallacy to say so.
Which is why it's funny to say so
At the same time, when you lock people up for an indeterminate amount of time, deny them the right to seek legal counsel, and hold all hearings pertaining to their "crime" in secret.... you risk looking like you're running a police state.
Is Gitmo full of political prisoners of the Bush Administration? Of course not. Are most of the people there terrorists and other dangerous folk? Probably. Are we all safer and more secure with those people behind bars (or barbed wire as the case may be)? Definitely.
But are there also some people there who were wrongly imprisoned, who didn't do anything, and who are being denied their Constitutionally Protected rights to trial by jury, legal advice, and habeas corpus? Almost certainly.
In my mind, that single fact (or if you prefer, possibility) counters every possible argument, every possible benefit, and every considerable merit for keeping prisoners in the Gitmo facility and trying their cases in secret. These people have a right to defend themselves in a court of law in full view of the public. If we take that away how can we really say we're fighting to defend freedom anymore? How can we really say we're championing anything other than oppression and totalitarian rule?
Let these cases stand on their own merit. If the government has proof than let it be seen. Too many American lives have been sacrificed on the alter of freedom, too many of our nation's sons have died to hoist the banner of liberty, too many fathers have been cut down fighting a war for justice to throw away the values we hold so dear at this moment of crisis.
I could have posted all that, but I was going for the +5 funny. You people have no since of humor
Killfile(TGK)
No trees were killed in the creation of this post. However, many electrons were inconvenienced.
...will somebody PLEASE think of the computers!! I mean children.... no wait computer... chil... comput...
which one are we worried about here?
"The world under heaven, after a long period of division, tends to unite; after a long period of union, tends to divide. This has been so since antiquity. When the rule of the Zhou Dynasty weakened, seven contending kingdoms sprang up, warring one with another until the kingdom of Qin prevailed and possessed the empire. But when Qin's destiny had been fulfilled, arose two opposing kingdoms, Chu and Han, to fight for the mastery. And Han was the victor."
"Before him bowed the kings of Shu and Wu,
Content to forfeit kingly power for life.
All down the ages rings the note of change,
For fate so rules it; none escapes its sway.
The three kingdoms have vanished as a dream,
The useless misery is ours to grieve."
These are the opening and ending lines of Romance of the Three Kingdoms, one of the most popular and well-known books in China. In the Chinese mentality the reunification of Taiwan with China is something that is going to happen eventually, if not right now. Why? They look at history. China has always split into 2 or more countries after the end of a dynasty and one of those countries has always gone and defeated the others to reunify China. Since it has always happened in the past it will happen in the future (Chinese believe strongly in cycles). If people wonder where China's obsession with unification comes from...Historical characters such as those in Three Kingdoms who reunite China (or try really really hard eg. Ngok Fei) are always admired and become national heroes and are even elevated to gods.
I can see China invading Taiwan though not right now. If civil unrest continues in China and the economy goes downhill, in order to maintain power the government might raise the spectre of nationalism. Nationalism is already replacing Communism as the idealism the government is using to keep people loyal and faithful. And once nationalism is raised in rhetoric it may be a war that the Chinese government is forced into by its own proclaimations. It may back itself into a corner and decide invading and the consequences would be better than losing face. And unification has always been a fascination of the Chinese as books like Romance of the Three Kingdoms show. Think - a restless China with economic problems, a new young energetic Chinese premier comes into power on the back of a strong nationalist campaign. He thinks - could I become another Guan Yu from Three Kingdoms (who is now worshipped as a god)? The temptation to recreate the Oath of the Peach Tree Garden may be too hard to resist. Chinese rulers have done a lot more stupid illogical frankly self-destructive things in the past.
In these circumstances, the needs of technology users in America are going to be the least of their considerations. Godhood or computer users in the US? Godhood or computer users in the US?
Actually, I stoped viewing China as communist a long time ago, and I'm communist. China nowadays is more capitalist that anything else, but the important thing here is that China is imperialistic by nature, and culturally used to totalitarian regimes. Remember that much of the problems China had in the 80's were with the USSR ( I have a book here from Novosti Press - USSR's official press - from the 80's called "China: Imperialist and Authocratic Regime").
What I said about totalitarian regimes doesn't mean it makes it OK by me, but every kind of political definition of China must take into account the very specific history of China.
Toa add to this the "founding fathers" of Formosa, the Kuomitang, were also completely against independence: Taiwan's view on this issue was (and is) exactly the same as PRC. The Real Government of China was the one in Formosa, mainland China was a rebel part of the country.
What is happening now is that the new generation of taiwanese wants independece. PRC will not allow this. We had to "return" Macau some years ago and it was a) not part of China when conquered and b) never ruled by an asian potency for 500 years. Still, China made this huge thing about it, and since it has the weapons, well, let's just say that it would be kind of impolite to refuse.
Of course, they could just say "ok, you're independent, fine with us", but I think they are going to choose the American way: "Want to seceed? Ok, here we go!!!".
cheers