High-Tech Firms Worry About Taiwan-China Tensions

Andy Tai writes "This San Jose Mercury News story shows high tech companies in the Silicon Valley worry about a possible war between mainland China and Taiwan. Both play important roles in the computer industry and the U.S. depends on both to finance the federal budget deficits. Many businessmen hope that economic considerations will prevent both sides from marching down a self-destructive path."

Comments

risks of outsourcing

[tobes]

Maybe now execs will start to see the true value of keeping their high tech centers located in stable political environments.

Stability- Imports Politics

[nuggz]

Come on, this is WHY it is cheap and effective to use offshore suppliers.

The reason that many countries are expensive is because they are safe and stable.
The laws, workforce, international situation are all good, you are likely dealing with an expensive country.
If you go to some country that has "political risk" the costs will be lower to account for this, everyone who does business with such a country must account for this risk.

If you want a safe stable place to do business keep it in a stable country, Don't put it in a semi independant nation/state mess on the other side of the world.

Re:Oh good

[nodwick]

Before you start jabbering about "war looming", you might want to look up your history a bit and realize that this sort of trash talk happens every election year in Taiwan. Nothing much has come out of it so far. Talking about political independence in Taiwan is a lot like talking about "increasing national security" and "fighting the terrorists" is in the U.S. right now -- it's a guaranteed attention-getter and makes the electorate feel warm and fuzzy about you.

And I'm not sure if you were being ironic with your "money is bad, think about the children" line, but note that in this case the point is that the lost revenue would actually be a deterrent for war. In other words, economic factors are actually helping to make the war less likely.

Self-destruction of who?

[Rosco P. Coltrane]

Many businessmen hope that economic considerations will prevent both sides from marching down a self destructive path.

Both economically and militarily, there won't be mutual self-destruction between mainland China and Taiwan. Instead, there will be one huge mammoth of a country squashing a football-field-sized other country.

And there won't be economic or military sanctions on China (the threat of which is what prevented it from harming Taiwan for so long) because now the US, the only country able to inflict any kind of sanctions on China, has vested interests in both countries.

The only thing China risks is reproachful looks at the UN for a while, then after everybody there is done looking really shocked, Taiwan will be history. Proof is, if the rest of the world had any kind of power against China's actions, Tibet would have been freed a long time ago.

In short: Taiwan's days are numbered.

Taiwan and China

[Raynach]

There is little possibility of a land war between Taiwan and China, and there always has been. Taiwan's been non-hostile towards China for the last, oh, 50 years, since Chiang Kai-shek retreated his forces there after the Chinese Communist Revolution. They have, however, built up enough military defense to fend off the sizeable Chinese military force, so a land invasion by China would be one hell of a battle that China would have trouble winning. Also, the Taiwanese government would have to draw in the Americans into the war to, well, protect economic interests, as usually is the reason for most American military intervention. So what we would have would be another Vietnam, or more plausibly, another Korea where the Americans and Chinese are fighting war against each other through a third nation.

But as I said before, a war between the two countries isn't likely. China knows the consequences of going into Taiwan; it would lead to American intervention and probably put an end to Chinese economic development and lucrative trade China does with the United States.

Re:News

[LostCluster]

Not so simple. The mere existance of a Taiwan government provokes China. China's viewpoint is that Taiwan is simply a rebel republic, and that's why the USA can't establish formal relations with Taiwan for fear of upseting China.

So you think Lord Chamberlain was right?

[Anonymous Coward]

Saddam had historical claims on Kuwait too ... you can always construe agression as internal conflict if you try hard enough.

Morally we all know Taiwan is an independent state, wether our governments recognise it as such or not.

It is just appeasement all over again.

Re:Amazing isn't it!

[HeghmoH]

it doesn't hurt if you keep most of your population at damn near the global poverty level.

China has been enjoying a truly amazing rate of economic growth for quite some time. Although the government tends to exaggerate the figures, the true figures are still very good. The amount of new construction in places like Beijing and Shanghai is incredible. Even in the interior, places that didn't even have running water not that long ago are getting telephones and TVs. The per-capita GDP is currently about $4,400, which is already not that bad.

China's leaders are totalitarian, but they have absolutely no incentive to keep their population poor. The richer their people are, the richer they are, and the more powerful their country is. They are smart enough to realize this.

Nerves in Korea (and elsewhere)

[fm6]

Are you kidding? A war between China and Taiwan would not be limited to the Taiwan Strait. Especially not in the Korean penninsula, the northern part of which is occupied by a nasty little totalitarian state that is kept out of trouble mainly by the restraint of their Chinese partners. If China is distracted by a war and the ensuing hassles with the rest of the world, the North Korean leadership might well see an opportunity to implement their one chance of long-term survival: forced reunification with the South. The alternative is to wait for their jerrybuilt system to collapse of its own weight, at which time I wouldn't want to be a member of the DPRK ruling elite!

Of course they'd fail, since the U.S. couldn't allow them to succeed. But the fighting would devestate Korea and place a nasty strain on U.S. military resources, which are already stretched. Let's see, that would leave two of the most productive economies in Asia (Taiwan and Korea) in utter ruins, with millions of unemployed. And the U.S., which is already spending gazillions it doesn't have, would be spending gazillions more. So economic hard times here, for a bunch of reasons.

And that's the best case scenario. It assumes the DPRK doesn't have more than a couple of nukes...

oh...

[Transcendent]

...will somebody PLEASE think of the computers!! I mean children.... no wait computer... chil... comput...

which one are we worried about here?