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X-Prize Progress Update
savuporo writes "The X-Prize organization has released a summary document (PDF), detailing the recent progress and immediate plans of 13 different competing teams, of those who have publicised information of significant hardware development (there are a total of 27 officially listed competitors from seven nations by now). Some details: quite a few teams are expecting to do full-scale or subscale powered flight tests soon, some as early as January 2004. Burt Rutan can still be considered as leading the pack, but others are not too far behind, and the winner is far from certain. Armadillo Aerospace states that some US teams are hindered more by regulatory hassles, than technical issues. Speaking of Armadillo, the team has just released a very special video, commemorating tomorrow's 100th anniversary of powered flight."
Armadillo Aerospace states that some US teams are hindered more by regulatory hassles, than technical issues.
It really makes one wonder where we would be if Goddard had restrictions on fuel sources and flight space or even where the Wright Bros. would be if they had to constantly check with local authorities every time they wanted to make a flight.
When my grandfather learned how to fly, planes had three or four instruments and they simply ran the engine up and took off and landed wherever they wanted. Times change of course and when I learned, we had significant classroom time talking about all sorts of regulations before we could even get into planes. Granted, some of this control is simply because of crowded airspace, but it seems sometimes that our fear of terrorism is actually hampering development of a whole variety of technologies and progress in fields as disparate as aerospace to biology. Where to draw the line?
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to get commercial space exploration started. As long as NASA is the only serious space agency, progress will be slow and safe. By letting individuals and small groups take risks that NASA is unwilling or unable to take, progress can be expected much sooner. The same thing has been seen throughout history as individuals willing to take risks have always surpassed massive, slow, cautious exploration by governments.
Celebrities are like ads, if we all ignore them, they'll just go away.
Keep in mind that the funding for the prize expires on 1 Jan 2005 ("the X PRIZE is fully funded through January 1, 2005, through private donations and backed by an insurance policy" from the X Prize web site). That's less than 13 months from now. Scaled Composites, which I suppose is the leader, is planning flight tests for the next 6-9 months leading "eventually" to a 100 km altitude which is the altitude needed to win the prize.
That doesn't give them a lot of extra time if they experience trouble. Of course what is great about having multiple teams is that if one falters, another may succeed. Given the number of things which can go wrong (a zillion technical things, and of course the legal/funding/etc ones), however, it isn't hard to imagine all the teams being delayed past the deadline.
But having said all that, it is great to see this activity going on. Should be fun to watch!
Rocket fuel, (PowerPoint-slide obsessed) professionals, and a whole NASA-load of official oversight. Experimentally verified as dangerous.
Anything less than 14 dead is an incredible improvement over the present situation.
All I have to do is pay sales tax on the parts.
My real worry is not regulations against my warp drive cos there aren't any, its submarine patents.
I'm afraid in 1982 somebody may have made an initial filing which by the time my invention comes out will cover my invention.
Sam
blog.sam.liddicott.com
I suspect that if they were somehow brought into the present era, the Wright Brothers would relate for more to the efforts of folks like Armadillo Aerospace than any of the official government programs.
They mostly aren't looking for compensation. It's a prize, not an R&D funding exercise.
Looking at the teams:
Rutan - wants to build cool flying vehicles (e.g. round the world on one tank of gas.) Ignoring his photoshopped SpaceShipOne images, actually has a chance at the X-Prize within two years.
Carmack - wants to make cool rocket toys. Working on hovering, not space shots. 5% chance of X-Prize within 5 years.
Steve Bennett - publicity seeking loon. 0% chance of any rocketry of interest, ever.
All the rest - 20% chance of success with 5 years. Seriously, if you aren't test firing a R motor (think model rocketry A, B, C, etc) every week at this point, you don't have a hope of meeting the X-Prize goals in the next couple of years.
...I wonder how many people will die testing their vehicles? Rocket fuel, (over)enthusiastic amateurs, not much official oversight. Sounds dangerous! Rocket fuel, (PowerPoint-slide obsessed) professionals, and a whole NASA-load of official oversight. Experimentally verified as dangerous. Space travel is dangerous. We know this to be so, and we do it anyway. The astronauts knew the risks before they got into that shuttle. THat isn't to say the situation can't be improved, but the mere fact that space travel is dangerous is known and has not deterred us in the past.
Think of it like competing for funding. The first one to take a baby step into space gets unprecidented prestige and a cool 10 mill in future funding. :-)
Javascript + Nintendo DSi = DSiCade
how does the very first post to the thread get moderated as redundant? :rolleyes:
This space available.
Until somebody actually demonstrates a macroscopic piece of material with sufficient tensile strength to build a space elevator, I'm not getting too excited.
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from a rigged demo
--Andy Finkel (J. Klass?)
OH right, because if it werent for Uncle Sam and his regulations, we all would have nothing better to do than spend millions building ICBMs.
Tell me something, do you think regulations would stop Al Queada from trying to build a rocket or missle? Do laws against homicide prevent murder? Do laws against theft prevent stealing?
Many of these regulations are unncessary and hinder private access to space. Private access to space should not be regulated anymore than access to other areas not under the control of a governmental body. Do I need the govt's permission to go fishing outside of U.S. waters?
P.S.
The regulations you refer to regard access to space and have nothing to do with the technology involved in ICBMs, which by the way has been around for close to 50 years and is available in many countries and I have yet to see some lunatic launch his own IBCM. Think before you post, kthx.