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235,000 Fewer Programmers by 2015
RonMcMahon writes "According to a CNN Money article, Forrester Research is predicting that there will be 235,396 fewer Computer Programmers and Software Engineers employed in 2015 than there are today in America. This is a 25% reduction in the number of positions from today's depressed numbers. This sucks. I know that many companies are moving work off-shore, but wow, that's half the population of Wyoming!"
I think that more important than the number of employed programmers and engineers is the number of people that program in their free time. A lot of programming employment opportunities are just soul draining code lackey positions. A lot of the really interesting, creative work comes from peoples' hobby projects.
Of course, it is notup to date on the stock market, but I suspect that that may be a shell game anyhow, at least on some level.
"It is a greater offense to steal men's labor, than their clothes"
Note I am in Australia which has some of these problems but nothing it would appear in comparison to America.
;)
:)
As much as it does suck I honestly see the only real way forward for software engineers and programmers is to either move into or start a research and development company and develop highly specialized software or to move into a new area of IT.
Honestly I would prefer if you didnt move into the system administration area, that would be mine,
The only way to keep your job secure is to work in face to face/onsite support or IT management although I am sure some clever CEO/CTO will figure out how to move those overseas as well.
One of the funniest things I read this year was a guarntee from our American management that they would not be moving the software development section from Australia to America from Australia, it was originally an Australian company so we didn't steal any American jobs
The real thing I want to know is where will the jobs be that are not outsourced to other countries and why will they be the ones to stay in comparison to those that are sent overseas.
37 - what does it stand for really...
As far as I know India doesn't have an H1B equivalent, so even if you are willing to relocate, it is near impossible.
It got outsourced to India! On related item, I remember when *everything* at WalMart *had* to be made in America but those days are long gone. In fact, you'd have a hard time finding anything at WalMart that *isn't* made in China now.
Good people do not need laws to tell them to act responsibly, while bad people will find a way around the laws-Plato
Assuming that these forecasts are accurate -- a big assumption with this sort of hard-to-predict thing but let's stipulate it is for purposes of argument...
It's not clear to me that the shrinkage is necessarily because of outsourcing overseas as everyone seems to be assuming. Sure that might be (doubtless will be) part of it but it doesn't seem that would be the only trend. In addition, in spite of the increase in the number of computers and things automated, there's also an increase in use of packaged software and tools that greatly increase productivity. A lot more can be accomplished with a lot fewer porogrammers than 10 or 20 years ago.
You can certainly find lots of examples in other industries where far fewer people are employed in spite of higher overall domestic output because of productivity increases.
We actually did it to ourselves.
First we made information networked and portable so that anyone is capable of working with it at any place.
Then we actively promoted "free" software that we work on for no pay. We actively promoted others to use "free" software and to produce it themselves.
Now we act surprised when others are capable of writing software in other countries and are willing to do it for low wages.
Survival of the fitest in this case means we ACTIVELY WORKED at making our jobs less valuable and our presense less nessesary. I'm not saying this is a bad thing; we just reap what we sow.
TW
It doesn't take a prior expert in the field to micromanage. It also doesn't take a fool not to micromanage. A good manager should know when to step back and when to get involved. But when my manager gets involved, I want him to fully understand what's going on and prevent bad things from happening, and encouraging the good.
My current manager isn't the most cluefull, but he's a good guy with good management skills. I try to make sure he understands w/o a doubt what i'm doing and why i'm doing it. Not to an atomic degree, but to a good general one.
--
"I'm not bright. Big words confuse me. But Wanda loves me and that should be enough for you." - Cosmo
585,000 computer programmers
697,000 software engineers
And that doesn't include the 887,000 systems analysts, computer scientists, and database administrators, some of which are almost certainly working in programming positions.
However, given that these numbers (1,282,000 computer programmers and software engineers) are from the year two thousand, before the massive layoffs of the past few years really started happening, the 941,584 number doesn't seem all that out of the ballpark.
I've been doing Consulting for the last 10 years. I've worked with (am still working with) lots of customers over that time and I think that the prediction is accurate. I just don't see anyone with big expansion plans for IT right now. And I don't see anything on the horizon that will change that. Most customers are happy enough with their current IT that they don't want to spend big any more. The ERP is in place. The online presence is in place. The board room question that's being asked is "WTF is IT doing now?"
The fundamental fact is that there are too many people in IT for the total budget available for IT spend. That means it's going to be tough for many. There will be little time to work out who is the best person for the job. In this climate, being good at your job is no guarantee of employment or a reasonable salary.
Overseas outsourcing will become less attractive because employers can get away with paying jack shit for local employees by relying on the over-supply of people who don't want to believe that the CS degree isn't worth anything to anyone any more.
In reference to another economy-related post above, the US Dollar is dropping in value even as Bushie-boy and Treasury Sec. Snow-job declare that they "support a strong dollar". For those who'd rather see the true picture, good charts for the dollar and other items can be found here.
I'd have a personalized plate on my car, but "toxic bachelor" won't fit into 7 letters.
Modded funny, but an MBA from a decent, fairly reputable Business School WILL take you places, regardless of your skillset. Plenty of people who don't even need them get them. We as techies turn up our nose at management, but one thing you'll notice is that, while we're all getting laid off left and right and our wages whittled down to nothing, managers and executive salaries are going up.
El riesgo vive siempre!
A security clearance is the closest thing to lifetime guaranteed employment that I know of.
According to the US Dept of Labor, from their 2002-3 Occupational Outlook Handbook, s/w engineers "are projected to be the fastest growing occupation over the 2000-10 period" while employment growth for programmers "will be considerably slower than that of other computer specialists, due to the spread of pre-packaged software solutions".
If you're worried about your job security, start learning more than just programming languages and APIs. (Of course, until we have a proper accreditation system, anyone in the s/w industry can call themselves an engineer...)
I have never understood the virulent resistance to unionization amongst the IT folks I know.
Look at the havily-unionized steel, automotive, and textile industries. They're fleeing this country to a greater extent than tech jobs. I would expect unionized IT to have the same effect. What possible protection could a union provide against development shifting overseas? It's already being done for cost reasons, increasing job security et al would simply make moving overseas even more cost-effective.
Ooh, a sarcasm detector. Oh, that's a real useful invention.
Actually, the skills level of those Indian programmers is generally acknowledged as being far higher than the average American programmer.
Seriously, you HAVE to be kidding or trying to open a flame war.
I have personally worked on many projects where there was at least one DEAD WEIGHT Indian on the team that didn't know sh*t, didn't know how to improve his/her knowledge of sh*t, and didn't care.
The only thing that they did do was worked very hard and long at producing the sh*t they did come out with, putting in many hours, convincing the dipstick management that they were great workers. Newsflash: Doesn't matter how hard you work if your output is crap.
We will see how this all pans out. Maybe as well as Dell farming out their phone tech support?
Were you around in the early '90's? Defense jobs can disappear wholesale. While you're at it, why don't you look at the percentage of the F-35 project that is going to foreign countries (50%).
Even the Muslims say so. . .
300 years ago is 1703. Europe was not a third world country in 1703. Innovation restarted in Europe in the 14th century in Italy. It started to decline in the Muslim world in the 15th century with Turkish hegemony (has nothing to do with the Turks as a culture, but might be related to the Sultanate as a political/social system; see Bernard Lewis). In China, it started to decline with the otherthrow of the Yuan (aka the Mongols) and the rise of the Ming.
It was Bill Clinton who signed NAFTA and GAT into law (after Clinton promised not to during his run for pres).
Thanks for giving the wealthiest 5% huge tax cuts so they'll never know near-poverty, like I do.
Everyone got tax cuts and that wealthiest 5% of Americans still pay nearly half or the US tax base. Also for someone who came close to six figures a couple of years ago to be near poverty now does not say allot about how you managed your money.
WTF is $1700 going to do towards tuition? nuttin
Its a good chunk of tuition at an Undergrad school you don't have a right to college money for school take the money which covers the fees and be glad. if you flip burgers 40hrs a week in the summer you can earn most of the years tuition and if you work 10-15 hrs a week in tuition like I did you'll get the rest and beer money to boot.
e first American president to START a war. The first American president who detained American citizens, in the United States
Lincoln did not start a war?, LBJ did not start a war?, Clinton did not drag the US into Kosovo? BTW Lincoln also detained without charging people, and without due process but why let history interfere with your rant.
Do you know that we are holding over 660 men at Camp X-Ray, in cages, like dogs?
Really being allowed to practice, your religion, 3 squares a day, seeing an imam is being treated like a dog? I am against camp x-ray but moronic exaggeration is not going to help.
So, thanks to the 49% of the country that did vote for Bush, and those who still support him, we have a hitler in office.
Its called the constitution, and the Electorial college system, gets over it. Its designed to make urban and rural area equally politically important if Gore had managed to win his own state it would not have mattered. That's it compare Bush to Hitler, its so clear to me now Gross use of slander for those you politically disagree with has shown me the light..
My job in IT, and countless like them are disappearing - and whats most disturbing is that our industry is only 35 years old! Only 10 of which did our industry emerge from specialized functions to become an sizable group, and already we are sent out. So thank you, America, for sitting back, watching your reality TV and 4 hours of sportscenter every night and allowing all this to happen. It's the fault of both parties and both wings, Republicans wrote NAFTA/GAT and Bill Clinton Signed it. Bill Clinton allowed the Chinese to get computer and rocket technology that should have stayed secret. And finally its your fault for bitching about it on slashdot and not registering voters, and pumping for a third party candidate who cares about the US (this excludes the Greens).
Every country speaks a "non-standard" language. Australian is quite different from British, e.g. I don't know that Britain still contains mutually unintelligible dialects of English, but it certainly did before radio was widespread.
That said, the reason for two different editions of books generally had more to do with tax laws than dialect. When one compares two versions, the differences are generally at most minimal, and frequently missing. But the cover price can be quite different nonetheless.
Spoken English is generally not as reqular as written English, however. And it tends to evolve vowel and consonant shifts quite quickly, though currently the media are tending to homogenize these into a few major dialects.
I think we've pushed this "anyone can grow up to be president" thing too far.
Yeah, just what the world needs, a tech union. So I can pay 5% of my wages to support the bottom 30% who screw up every job the touch because the honestly suck. No thanks, competition and quality speak, stay out of their way.
Here's the article outside business2.0.
The upshot: theoretically, it's possible. Now for some reality.
Visas: The Indian government slots visitors in order of preference: persons of Indian hertitage, other persons, Pakistanis and Afghans.
If your ancestry traces back to India, there is a special visa program for you. It's assumed that you've picked up some skills out in the world, and India wants to encourage you to bring 'em home to develop the nation.
If you are of other nationalities, a work visa is available. When applying, you must present documentation from an employer that they will be responsible for you. Good luck on that. If you're bringing a lot of capital and a business plan, well, that's another matter. Your visa must be renewed every year and a half or so.
If you are Pakistani or Afghan, it's obvious they don't trust you, and you'll have to submit considerable additional documentation.
Work Environment: Universities in India are pumping out a lot of tech grads, and there aren't yet enough jobs for all of them, although regional labor shortages do occur. Ergo, there's a lot of competition for jobs, so unless you were lead architect on the NT or Linux kernels in your last position (and if you are, you aren't getting outsourced, yet), don't think you're a shoo in. In fact, for an employer to even go to the bother of hiring you, you'll need to show a truly sterling CV. After all, it's a major business risk and pain in the ass for them to bring you in country in the first place. As an aside, there seems to be opportunity for Japanese speakers now that firms are seeking to tap the demand for outsourcing from Japan. You'll working in a 1.5m square three sided cube, if you're lucky. Some up and coming companies claim to respect that employees might have a life beyond the office, which should tell you what the norm is. When a contract is finished, you may find your ass back out on the street very quickly, just like in the States, and the social safety net assumes you've got family to lean on. You do not want to go broke in India.
Renting: As a foreigner, you can't buy property. There is a wide variety of rental properties, ranging from mansions and modern high rise condos you couldn't afford on a San Jose salary, to the very pits. You really need to do your homework on this. Even though you may be working on an Indian pay scale, land lords will assume you're loaded, so it would be a major plus to bring an Indian friend to help you negotiate.
Getting On Line: The Indian government has only started moving to open up the infrastructure. In the meantime, brother, welcome back to dialup, and it ain't pretty. Getting regular phone service enabled can require several trips to the telecom office, with a side trip to the switching station to introduce yourself to the technicians. Getting dialup on that same line means more money, and more delays. Count on the link being noisy and unreliable. ISDN is available in some areas, but usually isn't linked to a TCP trunk(!). Switched 56k and up is available in some locations, but even 56k is well over US$1000/month. This might be an ideal environment to start an 802.11b freenet, but the equipment
Luke, help me take this mask off