Linux 2.6 Kernel Pool Results

jafo writes "Steve Ratcliffe, Master Software Project Estimator, has most correctly estimated the release of the Linux version 2.6 kernel. On January 6, 2001 (within 4 hours of when the 2.6 kernel pool was opened), he entered a guess which was accurate within 15 hours. Check the results for some interesting statistics and submit your guess for the 2.8 pool." See the original story if you like.

Comments

Missing Pool Option

[Anonymous Coward]

Duke Nukem: Forever release.

Guess in the past

[Piggymon]

First guess submitted on 2001-01-06
Most optimistic guess: 2001-01-05 by Bill Segall
Bill, you're a GENIUS!

Interesting statistics...

[cperciva]

If you exclude the guesses which are obviously jokes (eg, 2038), then 96% of the guesses were optimistic. Obviously some elements of proprietary software development still hold true in OSS.

Also amusing: The median guess was April 1, 2002.

Finally!

[Guano_Jim]

I, for, one, have been waiting for a swimming pool that can run Linux.

Re:Finally!

[foobsr]

Here you have it ... http://truetex.com/poolcontrol.htm

CC.

Now this is an evil idea!

[SharpFang]

Imagine this, some hacker who takes part in kernel development submits a date, then sabotages the kernel, submits broken modules, introduces bugs, breaks stuff and keeps all the patches on his own harddisk. And finally, when kernel would be ready if not his own purposedly made bugs, he submits his patches one day before his "guessed date" and the kernel is released within next 24 hours, within 2h from his guess and four months later than it could've been released.

Unfair advantage

[kbielefe]

Proprietary software managers have an unfair advantage in this pool. After all, for a living they make release schedules before anyone knows what the new software is actually going to do.

The schedule says we need to finish this in 6 months, but your estimates add up to a year so you'll have to do some stuff in parallel.

Uh, sir, it will still take just as long unless you hire some more staff. Even then, it will take some extra time for training.

But you said these modules were completely independent. You should be able to do two independent tasks in the same amount of time as one. Look how easy it is to schedule it that way in Microsoft Project.

Well, then why don't we all just do 12 at once so it will be done in a month instead of a year?

Don't be silly, it doesn't work that way. The schedule says six months. Boy, for how good you engineers are at algebra and calculus, you sure don't understand the basic mathematics of business.