Linux 2.6 Kernel Pool Results

jafo writes "Steve Ratcliffe, Master Software Project Estimator, has most correctly estimated the release of the Linux version 2.6 kernel. On January 6, 2001 (within 4 hours of when the 2.6 kernel pool was opened), he entered a guess which was accurate within 15 hours. Check the results for some interesting statistics and submit your guess for the 2.8 pool." See the original story if you like.

Comments

Missing Pool Option

[Anonymous Coward]

Duke Nukem: Forever release.

Re:Missing Pool Option

[Anonymous Coward]

I believe that maps to a time_t of 2147483647+1 implying that time travel of some sort is required.

At least Linus didn't win ...

[FelixCat]

Since then we would have had proof the competition was fixed!

Re:At least Linus didn't win ...

[MadelineAlbright]

Do you suppose Linus has 2.8.0 hidden away and will bring it out before the election?

But really, I'm just joking!

Re:At least Linus didn't win ...

[horza]

Since then we would have had proof the competition was fixed!

Even if you let the software engineer doing the designing enter the competition, the chances are that his guess will be the furthest off.

Phillip.

Well, made my guess...

[heironymouscoward]

But I'm not saying what it was. Otherwise everyone will want to vote for 29 September 2005!

How are we supposed to do it?

[Storm]

...With no LOTR releases slated for 2005...

Quick, somebody call Peter Jackson. Get him working on a Silmarillion release for December 2005...

Re:How are we supposed to do it?

[peragrin]

Actually the rumors that run ramapt say that we may have a remake of the Hobbit.( the story of Bilbo Baggins) It is supposed to be around that time. After he gets done filming some new king kong flick

Re:How are we supposed to do it?

[ultranova]

Of course you'd have to do heavy editing. However, I do believe that you could make a good movie out of Silmarillion.

Start with the creation of Silmarils, with the backstory told in flashbacks by Morgoth as he watches and starts to lust for them. Follow the elf band that took the northern route to Middle-Earth (more dramatic). Once in Middle-Earth, cull most of the side plots. Luthien and Beren goes in, of course. Basically, keep Morgoth as the central character (as he is the only one who really stays constant in this whole mess.

End with a massive, long battle scene from the War of Wrath.

On second thought... Maybe this isn't such a good idea. Maybe it would work better as a tv series (one story per episode) ? Or maybe make a movie, and put the side stories into TV episodes ?

Or maybe just make the whole thing into a computer game ? At least it wouldn't lack challenge (Mission: Kill all enemies. Your forces: 100 elves. Enemy forces: 100 000 orcs, 100 dragons, 1000 balrogs, 500 vampires, 1 Sauron, 1 Morgoth).

M$

[gustgr]

What might had been microsoft guess ? Never ?

Guess in the past

[Piggymon]

First guess submitted on 2001-01-06
Most optimistic guess: 2001-01-05 by Bill Segall
Bill, you're a GENIUS!

Call George

[ignipotentis]

And find out when exactly episode 3 will be released.

Link for 2.8 guess is wrong

[sparkes]

This link adds a guess for the 2.6 release. Anyone getting this wrong after the event deserves to lose ;-)

Re:Link for 2.8 guess is wrong

[PieEye]

It says that you're voting for 2.8, however the submission response page incorrectly states 2.6. You're voting for 2.8, and they'll correct the page eventually.

KRUD

[Neon Spiral Injector]

I still have my KRUD CDs from coming in within the top 20 for 2.4. I missed 2.6 by a month. Both guesses were made the day the pool went up.

Interesting statistics...

[cperciva]

If you exclude the guesses which are obviously jokes (eg, 2038), then 96% of the guesses were optimistic. Obviously some elements of proprietary software development still hold true in OSS.

Also amusing: The median guess was April 1, 2002.

Re:Interesting statistics...

[cperciva]

You mean shipping later, rather than sooner?

No, I mean "on time, on budget, works properly. Pick none."

Re:Interesting statistics...

[StenD]

The same thing happens in proprietary software. Perhaps there's a lower rate of attrition in proptietary software once it's past the proposal stage, but I think that has a lot to do with the argument "We've already spent $bigbucks on the BlackHole project, do you want that to go to waste?", while with open source, if a project doesn't actually meet a need, the project is most likely going to wither away.

Finally!

[Guano_Jim]

I, for, one, have been waiting for a swimming pool that can run Linux.

Re:Finally!

[foobsr]

Here you have it ... http://truetex.com/poolcontrol.htm

CC.

SCO will tell us

[macdaddy]

Just ask McBride when he'll release the 2.8 kernel.

Diebold Machines?

[PincheGab]

Lemme guess... The kernel pool thing was run on Diebold voting machines, right? Give himself a 15 hour discrepancy to not make it look suspicious yet still win... No paper trail... hmmmm...

optimistic or stupid?

[gosand]

Most optimistic guess: 2001-01-05 19:36:18-07 by Bill Segall

Considering that the pool started on 2001-01-06,
"(First guess submitted on 2001-01-06 08:43:00 UTC by Ian Davis)"
could this really be considered optimistic, or just plain stupid?

Re:I don't get it

[Anonymous Coward]

You can still vote, though. Literacy/intelligence requirements are illegal.

Now this is an evil idea!

[SharpFang]

Imagine this, some hacker who takes part in kernel development submits a date, then sabotages the kernel, submits broken modules, introduces bugs, breaks stuff and keeps all the patches on his own harddisk. And finally, when kernel would be ready if not his own purposedly made bugs, he submits his patches one day before his "guessed date" and the kernel is released within next 24 hours, within 2h from his guess and four months later than it could've been released.

Re:Now this is an evil idea!

[mhesseltine]

While this seems funny, I doubt it would work for one simple reason; if someone is submitting bad patches, breaking modules, etc., I would hope that Linus, Alan, Marcello, (insert maintainer here) would quit accepting this person's patches.

After all, that's what the reputation game is all about. Those with talent are revered, those without are shunned until they can prove themselves worthy (probably through a stand-alone project).

Re:wait

[wastaz]

I might be quite off on this, but isn't changing the major number (like 1 to 2, or 2 to 3) supposed to signal breaking backwards compatability of some sort?

Or am I totally out in the blue here? It wouldnt surprise me if I was..

Is it me or is their time_t converter 14 hrs off?

[porkrind]

It says to enter the time in GMT, which I did. When I did that, the resulting date came out to be 14 hours earlier from what I entered. Wtf?

It wouldn't be correct even if they're trying to guess my time zone and adjust for that - which would be dumb anyway, otherwise why bother requesting the date in GMT?

Re:2.8.0?

[unborn]

Then the correct answer would be "Never".

What about the GNU/HURD Poll?

[miracle69]

Anyone run a release poll on that?

I wonder if Vegas has odds. If it does, I'd take the over.

Unfair advantage

[kbielefe]

Proprietary software managers have an unfair advantage in this pool. After all, for a living they make release schedules before anyone knows what the new software is actually going to do.

The schedule says we need to finish this in 6 months, but your estimates add up to a year so you'll have to do some stuff in parallel.

Uh, sir, it will still take just as long unless you hire some more staff. Even then, it will take some extra time for training.

But you said these modules were completely independent. You should be able to do two independent tasks in the same amount of time as one. Look how easy it is to schedule it that way in Microsoft Project.

Well, then why don't we all just do 12 at once so it will be done in a month instead of a year?

Don't be silly, it doesn't work that way. The schedule says six months. Boy, for how good you engineers are at algebra and calculus, you sure don't understand the basic mathematics of business.

Re:wait

[planetsphinx]

This is what I've always understood..

the primary number (v1, v2, etc) is a MAJOR rewrite of the code..

the secondary number (x.1, x.2, etc) is a substantial release, lots of changes and upgraded code...

and the tertiary number (x.x1, x.x2, etc) are primarly big fixes.

Graph

[shoemakc]

That may have been one of the worst graphs I've ever seen. Com'on guys...havn't we heard of intervals?

-Chris

Predict 2.8? Why?

[tellurian]

2.6 ought to be enough for everybody

Re:Huh?

[nathanroberts]

Well, as soon as I saw the ad I immediately recognized the chick. As in, I'd seen the ad before, not that I knew who she was. But I never even realized that it was an ad for personals.

Just goes to show how much I pay attention to the ads...