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VoIP Advances And Trends For 2004
gardel writes "So everyone's top-tech predictions for 2004 says it will be the year of VoIP. What does that really mean? This may narrow it down. Here's Voxilla's list of the top-10 advances and trends in the world of VoIP. On the list: VoIP and cellular converges, IP phones take over, Chinese and Mexican phone numbers come to the U.S., Asterisk hits it big. What would you add?"
With or without VoIP regulation, a global P2P (PSTN-connected) voice network emerge..
How? The article talks about Asterix-to-asterix networks bypassing telcos totally. Also VoIP providers routing IP only to each other to end call termination costs.
I beleve that the Larger Asterix networks and VoIP providers will enter into call peering agreements just like the early internet.
It start out as hobbyists setting up Asterisk Open Source PBX boxes connected to their home POTS line.
Will some form of ENUM allow least cost routing to boxes sitting in basements and garages around the world?
If an ITSP in Europe can setup an Asterisk box with PSTN access and start offering US phone numbers and vice-versa, will global number plans become obsolete? What effect will the ridiculously low barrier to entry for VoIP have on telecommunications?
2004 Will be interesting indeed.
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gnaa-RKZ - Support your local community
Just because VoIP involves voice, that does NOT mean it's the same as telephone service. The monopolistic nature of telephone service (only one company can realistically have lines in a given area, particularly in the "last mile") makes heavy regulation and regulatory fees necessary. VoIP does not suffer from this physical limitation to competition, and thus any number of VoIP providers can exist in any area. This is yet another blatant attempt of government to cash in on an emerging technology.
Intel is currently working furiously on a cellular chip that will seamlessly roam to WiFi networks. They also want it to carry prodigous amounts of data. Known as the Digital Briefcase specification, any compliant PC will automagically recognize the phone and allow you to log into the PC as if it were your own. Mail, favorites, documents/music and even wallpaper and settings will appear seamlessly. Check out my sig for more...
POTS will die a quick death unless the big TelCos start lobbying for taxes. Slashdotters move these companies up on the list of Evil entities.
Life is the leading cause of death in America.
gardel: at least have the courtesy to admit that Voxilla IS YOUR SITE.
Check gardel's previous posts if you don't believe me.
If you're going to self-promote, be up front about it.
I am currently setting up an asterisk PBX with polycom ip phones and VOIP for outgoing calls. It is incredible software. I have no doubt that in the next year or two, it will become one of the most important open source projects, right up there with Linux and Apache.
The software does have a steep learning curve (not worse that any other telco system though). Be prepared to spend a few weeks just getting a basic system with a couple of phones to go. However, once you get it up and going, it is very easy (and cheap!) to expand.
Asterisk will totally replace the current PBX and key systems, and it will also play a key role in destroying the traditional overpriced channelized telco services.
I've never personally understood this mania that the POTS folks have for dragging all of the old telephone system baggage into VOIP. Why on earth should we perpetuate the same old nonsense of "area codes" & "country codes"? (They are completely artificial & capricious anyway.) What's wrong with dialing someone by their IP address, that's what I want to know?
"The time is always now" - Victor
Hooray - now phones can have the same coverage and reliability as broadband Internet. What a leap forward.
EPIC's VoIP letter to the FCC
People say I'm crazy, I got diamonds on the soles of my shoes...
I agree there are some issues for the VoIP folks to figure out here but for comparisons sake ....
the first question you get asked when you phone 911 on a traditional land line is "where are you?" This is because the traditional location information is wrong a surprising amount of the time.
ROTFL... but I am honored.
If you are going to steal one of my previous posts, please remove my name from the post before you hit submit.
This guy is using a database of highly ranked posts to boost his karma.
Davak
MoFscker
Instead of "your call is important to us" you get a 404 error.
Another reason why we should go over to the IPv6 standard as soon as it's mature. If everyone wants VoIP we have to get more IPs.
:)
The hack called NAT can probably be hacked even more to do this, but it would've been a lot easier if we used the almost infinite pool of IPs accessible through IPv6.
A new domain should also arise dedicated to naming of IPs. Easier with name + city, instead of those nice long IPs?
I'm not very familiar with VoIP, so correct me if I'm wrong.
I'll bet if you posted on /. that you're looking for a competent system administrator, you'd find one.
www.clarke.ca
IAXprovider.net is the site for people who want to network their Asterisk systems (IAX is the protocol Asterisk uses to talk to other Asterisk instances) with other Asterisk users.
The site is intended as a hub for Asterisk users to meet up, network and take over the world of telephony.
And remember kids: Never trust a computer you can actually lift.
The problem with VoIP is that it isn't half as good as people think it is -- there are certainly good niche applications, and ways to use it profitably, but it simply isn't the be-all and end-all. Why do people fawn over it so much? I think it's largely because "IP" has that "k3w1" quality of the Internet in general, while phones are passe -- hardly a good way to make rational decisions.
s /HotNets0 2-IP_conquest_of_the_world_with_authors.pdf
This paper is pretty useful:
http://klamath.stanford.edu/~nickm/paper
In the meantime, VoIP grows because some countries allow it to be used for a sort of regulatory arbitrage. It popped up before the rules covered it, or they didn't know how to deal with it, so it got special favored treatment. That's not the same as saying it is "unregulated"! In the USA, long distance is almost unregulated, but the local telephone monoplies are regulated -- they have a stake in how much they can charge for VoIP calls that use their networks the same way other long distance calls do. Expect an interesting year at the FCC while this is debated.
I do not expect computer-to-computer VoIP to be regulated (in the USA) at all; it's simply not anyone's but the users' to deal with. But of course some cable or DSL providers might try to block it, in order to sell their own phone services -- that'll be interesting to watch.
Where can I get a VoIP phone service (and a cheap yet good deal for a VoIP phone)? Can't find information on how to get VoIP in your home anywhere. I want to do this cause as I understand it, you aren't charged for long distance because (of course) your conversation is being transmitted over the internet. This means I'll have the luxury of calling anywhere in the US (and possibly the world) without a long distance fee.)
It's a similar problem with the deep discount long distance carriers in the US and elsewhere. Usable if you don't expect it to work all the time, and if you don't mind delays, echos and so on, but even for personal calls it's often better to pay the extra for a proper carrier, just to save the wasted time from having to repeat things and call back.
So, there's a market for VOIP at the cheap end of the market, and it's hurting the really low-cost carriers already, but there will remain a much bigger market for phone service that just works, all the time, has proper capacity engineering, and has a high quality connection.
NAT prevents this straightforward implementation, which must make telcos very happy.
As someone who works in this industry, I thought I'd share some of the future of telecomm for those who aren't 'in the know'. All communication lines going to any endpoint (home, business, sensors, etc) are quickly moving to an IP based data network. Unfortunately, there are two problems that governments and current telephone companies face:
:-)
1) Roughly 50% of their voice revenue stream comes from per minute connection charges, other carrier access charges, & regulation charges (govn't). These will evaporate when subscribers move to data driven VoIP (ie: you pay a flat fee for DSL or cable modem bandwidth now, and it can run all your voice calls to anywhere in the world). Eventually the PSTN connection part will no longer be necessary, so Vonage will disappear as we know it today, but it has finally woken up the telcos to what the future will bring.
2) Pretty much the other half of their revenue stream comes from the 'premium' voice feature services (call waiting, text messaging, etc), all of which are quickly moving from the class 5 switch into the phones themselves (aka: free).
What do you do when your primary revenue stream evaporates? Fight it in the courts or with govn't officials. Remember, govn'ts have been taking a nice chunk of that revenue for themselves as well.
We will have to move to a bandwidth & quality of service (QoS) based payment style. A minimum bandwidth is given for a flat rate (which will include -all- voice), and extra bandwidth will be provided on demand at an agreed QoS. The higher the bandwidth & QoS, the higher the fee.
Things to watch out for: VoIP everywhere, SIP phones/services, VoWLAN, current voice carriers moving their infrastructure to their IP networks, and govn't regulations dictating that comm lines (called data services & unregulated) become regulated for QoS.
The companies that move to this model last will not survive. They aren't going to like this.
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VoIP is different from WWW, P2P, and the other Internet services you mentioned: when it replaces a landline, it is an *essential service*. However, as it is delivered in a much more open, competitive environment from POTS of the Bell era, it is also different from the tarrifed landline service. Some of the regulations that protected the "natural monopoly" of landline corporations, like the Bells, and protected us from them, don't apply. But some do. We will need a good public discussion of what minimum regulations are necessary, to protect consumers' privacy, freedom of choice, and quality of the essential service. We also need consensus on how to protect entrepreneurs from the crushing competition of the incumbent carriers, including cable and other WAN service providers. Especially in the absence of anyone resembling a visionary in Washington, we at the bleeding edge of VoIP experimentation must formulate policies that protect our communities as we switch to this powerful 3rd Millennium platform. Or some clown politician in some corporation's pocket will ruin it all for us, once the money becomes irresistable.
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make install -not war