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VoIP Advances And Trends For 2004
gardel writes "So everyone's top-tech predictions for 2004 says it will be the year of VoIP. What does that really mean? This may narrow it down. Here's Voxilla's list of the top-10 advances and trends in the world of VoIP. On the list: VoIP and cellular converges, IP phones take over, Chinese and Mexican phone numbers come to the U.S., Asterisk hits it big. What would you add?"
With or without VoIP regulation, a global P2P (PSTN-connected) voice network emerge..
How? The article talks about Asterix-to-asterix networks bypassing telcos totally. Also VoIP providers routing IP only to each other to end call termination costs.
I beleve that the Larger Asterix networks and VoIP providers will enter into call peering agreements just like the early internet.
It start out as hobbyists setting up Asterisk Open Source PBX boxes connected to their home POTS line.
Will some form of ENUM allow least cost routing to boxes sitting in basements and garages around the world?
If an ITSP in Europe can setup an Asterisk box with PSTN access and start offering US phone numbers and vice-versa, will global number plans become obsolete? What effect will the ridiculously low barrier to entry for VoIP have on telecommunications?
2004 Will be interesting indeed.
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Just because VoIP involves voice, that does NOT mean it's the same as telephone service. The monopolistic nature of telephone service (only one company can realistically have lines in a given area, particularly in the "last mile") makes heavy regulation and regulatory fees necessary. VoIP does not suffer from this physical limitation to competition, and thus any number of VoIP providers can exist in any area. This is yet another blatant attempt of government to cash in on an emerging technology.
I don't really know too much about VoIP, but what happens when the power goes out? Like I've only had 4 power outages in the last 10 or so years, but still, what if it happens? I know one advantage POTS has is that it usually works... Having VoIP for voice calls overseas is great, but what if the POTS system is gone, power is out, and people can't call for help?
Course my telco has never really caused me grief so I'm not biased against them.
gardel: at least have the courtesy to admit that Voxilla IS YOUR SITE.
Check gardel's previous posts if you don't believe me.
If you're going to self-promote, be up front about it.
I am currently setting up an asterisk PBX with polycom ip phones and VOIP for outgoing calls. It is incredible software. I have no doubt that in the next year or two, it will become one of the most important open source projects, right up there with Linux and Apache.
The software does have a steep learning curve (not worse that any other telco system though). Be prepared to spend a few weeks just getting a basic system with a couple of phones to go. However, once you get it up and going, it is very easy (and cheap!) to expand.
Asterisk will totally replace the current PBX and key systems, and it will also play a key role in destroying the traditional overpriced channelized telco services.
I've never personally understood this mania that the POTS folks have for dragging all of the old telephone system baggage into VOIP. Why on earth should we perpetuate the same old nonsense of "area codes" & "country codes"? (They are completely artificial & capricious anyway.) What's wrong with dialing someone by their IP address, that's what I want to know?
"The time is always now" - Victor
ROTFL... but I am honored.
If you are going to steal one of my previous posts, please remove my name from the post before you hit submit.
This guy is using a database of highly ranked posts to boost his karma.
Davak
MoFscker
Instead of "your call is important to us" you get a 404 error.
The problem with VoIP is that it isn't half as good as people think it is -- there are certainly good niche applications, and ways to use it profitably, but it simply isn't the be-all and end-all. Why do people fawn over it so much? I think it's largely because "IP" has that "k3w1" quality of the Internet in general, while phones are passe -- hardly a good way to make rational decisions.
s /HotNets0 2-IP_conquest_of_the_world_with_authors.pdf
This paper is pretty useful:
http://klamath.stanford.edu/~nickm/paper
In the meantime, VoIP grows because some countries allow it to be used for a sort of regulatory arbitrage. It popped up before the rules covered it, or they didn't know how to deal with it, so it got special favored treatment. That's not the same as saying it is "unregulated"! In the USA, long distance is almost unregulated, but the local telephone monoplies are regulated -- they have a stake in how much they can charge for VoIP calls that use their networks the same way other long distance calls do. Expect an interesting year at the FCC while this is debated.
I do not expect computer-to-computer VoIP to be regulated (in the USA) at all; it's simply not anyone's but the users' to deal with. But of course some cable or DSL providers might try to block it, in order to sell their own phone services -- that'll be interesting to watch.
As someone who works in this industry, I thought I'd share some of the future of telecomm for those who aren't 'in the know'. All communication lines going to any endpoint (home, business, sensors, etc) are quickly moving to an IP based data network. Unfortunately, there are two problems that governments and current telephone companies face:
:-)
1) Roughly 50% of their voice revenue stream comes from per minute connection charges, other carrier access charges, & regulation charges (govn't). These will evaporate when subscribers move to data driven VoIP (ie: you pay a flat fee for DSL or cable modem bandwidth now, and it can run all your voice calls to anywhere in the world). Eventually the PSTN connection part will no longer be necessary, so Vonage will disappear as we know it today, but it has finally woken up the telcos to what the future will bring.
2) Pretty much the other half of their revenue stream comes from the 'premium' voice feature services (call waiting, text messaging, etc), all of which are quickly moving from the class 5 switch into the phones themselves (aka: free).
What do you do when your primary revenue stream evaporates? Fight it in the courts or with govn't officials. Remember, govn'ts have been taking a nice chunk of that revenue for themselves as well.
We will have to move to a bandwidth & quality of service (QoS) based payment style. A minimum bandwidth is given for a flat rate (which will include -all- voice), and extra bandwidth will be provided on demand at an agreed QoS. The higher the bandwidth & QoS, the higher the fee.
Things to watch out for: VoIP everywhere, SIP phones/services, VoWLAN, current voice carriers moving their infrastructure to their IP networks, and govn't regulations dictating that comm lines (called data services & unregulated) become regulated for QoS.
The companies that move to this model last will not survive. They aren't going to like this.
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