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Life After the Video Game Crash
codecasting writes "There's an interesting, very satirical story over at David Wong's Pointless Waste of Time where he makes a good case for the upcoming death of the video game industry. His key points include gaming platforms largely reaching a technological plateau, the aging of the 'Original Gamers' audience, and the slew of games that are just copies of the same game from last year, but with a new title and different cars/guns/bikinis/etc. An interesting and humorous read."
I tend to agree. A good game has much more to it than highly realistic 3d videos. Historically the games which have been most successful were the ones with a simple, yet addictive concept. It didn't matter that they were designed for a 8 bit 2MHz proccessor with a black and white low-res display.
Recently there has been almost no inovation whatsoever. Every new game which comes out belongs to an already existing category (strategy, 3d fps, simulation, etc), with the only difference between them being slightly modified sprites.
The way I see it, the future probably will lie in Massive-multiplayer. As residential connections get faster, and protocols are improved to cope with lag better, it might be possible to design games where hundreds of thousands of players compete in real time in one virtual environment. That would be awesome.
I may be a little bit old school, but nothing has generated as much excitement as the release of a new Mario game or Final Fantasy 2 and 3 (US) used to when I was younger. Perhaps age has something to do with it, or it could be a lack of quality and fun. My money is on the latter.
Is there anything that ISN'T dying these days???
Seriously, the media exaggerates EVERYthing because it makes for more entertaining reading.
The lack of innovation has come from the fact that video games have become a big business in the past 20 years. You can make the same argument that movies are the same way. Video games will continue to grow as the first "Video game generation" gets older. Think about it, most players now are 30-35 or younger...What will the market be like when these people are 80, and everyone plays games?
The Market is growing, not shrinking. Games are becoming more mainstream, which leads companies to produce "safer" tried and true games. Don't worry, there will still be innovation but there will also be more and more "safe" games as video games grow as a real business.
The author makes some really dead-on points, and it's plenty enough to make investors in Nintendo shares shake in their boots.
But I think he's badly underestimating the creativity of the companies that do survive -- whoever they happen to be.
Take board games as an example. How many ways can you move a playing piece from point A to point B? Isn't Life just the same as Monopoly, which is no different from Trivial Pursuit, which is an obvious ripoff of Chutes and Ladders?
You get the idea. Those four games hugely different variations on the same "platform" -- a flat piece of cardboard. What's more, they're still around after decades. Monopoly keeps coming out with special editions that are no more than "different cars" in GTA-LXXVI -- but they still sell.
And a stroll down Toys-R-Profit's game aisle shows a dizzying variety of board games. Many of them are lame variations on the theme (roll 1d6 to see if Barbie gets a good parking space at the mall) and won't last a year. But while they're around, someone will buy them, and next year we'll have another lame variant.
What's sad is that we're seeing the end of the beginning. We 30-somethings watched video games go from homebuilt to primitive to amazing... to commodity. I expect the children of the 1860s experienced the same thing with board games.
Stressed? Me? Of course not. Stress is what a rubber band feels before it breaks, silly.
Remember the first video game to gross $1 billion? NBA Jam, before it even made it into the home. This was after one of the prior 'crashes' in the home market. We all got burned out on Atari 2600/C64/Apple][ games and headed back to the arcade.
The video game industry may or may not be putting the player into the 'movie', but does it have to? My most feverish moments of gaming usually involved a text CLI interface. Some used a joy stick. The game is what you make it, IMHO.
The game industry will grow. It's just waiting for the next big thing, which may actually be some old thing redone to be fresh or just captures the imagination of players. The failings of the game industry isn't so much the tired old games redone, it's simply the lull between the peaks. There will be another peak, and another and another... as he said, Something truly new and different and novel, dammit. The market is ripe for it.
It always will be. In the meantime, I continue to play treasures from the past.
A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
In the last couple of days there have been news stories heralding the fact that video gaming is cutting noticeable chunks out of TV viewership in the US. It might just be a reaction to the fact that TV these days doesn't suck - if it sucked it would be good for something.
It might also be the case that video games have a fairly solid place in modern life that will endure even if we are on a technological plateau. Broadcast TV hasn't changed that much. Even though it's struggling it's still holding in there.
The man who never alters his opinion is like the stagnant water and breeds Reptiles of the Mind -- William Blake
Who remembers the big shakeout of the '83?
Really now, if the same old idea just rehashed over and over (but most likely with slight variations) were a problem in the entertainment creation market, then books/music/art would have stopped being made sometime around, oh, 1000 years ago.
Everything worth expressing has already been expressed. That doesn't mean we can't enjoy the new incarnations. Society changes, things move out of favor, then back in again. At which point old ideas get rehashed and become popular once again. I don't think the gaming industry is in any danger of flopping, in fact I'll bet its only going to become a more and more pervasive part of world culture.
- I love animals. I try to eat at least one a day.
One day you have an article about how television is dying because of video games; now apparently video games are dying. Are they going to be replaced by people sitting around talking to each other? I don't buy it.
Personally, though, I think that console games will probably take over from PC games. It must be a lot easier for developers to not have to try making everything compatible with all of the various pc hardware components.
slashdot, news for crazed liberal socialist zealots
No kidding. I get the distinct impression, after reading this article, that the author likes to hear himself talk. I understand the points he raises, and even agree with a couple of them (online gaming is a niche market with respects to consoles), but I think the conclusions are way out in left field.
The XBOX and the Gamecube were failures? The graphical upgrades between consoles is getting narrower to the casual observer, so the game industry is going to take a nose dive? Instead of, say, the more reasonable outcome: they change to fit the new environment? We're not talking about the slow-to-move Recording Industry here, the videogame industry is in its infancy in comparison.
TFA looks more like an excuse to come up with some creative insults, and play with pictures in an attempt to be humorous. The arguments remind me of conversations I heard at lunch in junior high!
Auto-reply to ACs: "Truly, you have a dizzying intellect."
As soon as that puppy gets released cash out all video game stocks, because you know the end is nigh.
aw man - first C is declared dead and now video games are dead. If the next slashdot story is that pr0n is dead, I've lost my three favorite hobbies.
From the article:
Luke's X-Wing approaches the surface of the Death Star.
"Red Five, begin your attack run."
Luke swoops down into the trench. "It'll be just like Beggar's Canyon back ho-"
Turret laser bolts tear his X-Wing apart.
So true, how many times do you have to die a horrible death to finally get all the way through a game that was supposed to make you feel like a hero, but instead ensures that you never leave your cushy chair, your cold pizza, or your virginity.
I find that games only requiring a short period of time to throughly enjoy are my favorite. UT2004 is a blast in Onslaught mode (everyone should know this by now) and I can play with my brothers across the country. And a few good matches takes less than an hour of my life.
I like to play Simpsons Hit & Run with my wife when we want to just relax for an hour or so on a rainy day.
But I probably will not be willing to ever fork over the bucks that some of the upcoming all-in-one gaming/movie/theater systems are going to cost. I'll just get a cheapo PS2 and some decent games. I don't want gaming to be my life.
I'm on a chair.
People that write articles like this often forget the "Clerks" factor. Aka, the independant artist factor.
If you poke around online, you can find TONS of independant groups creating entirely new games on their own, for little to no money.
This is similar to what kevin smith did in producing the movie "clerks." He, on his own, made some money, and produced his own film. It became a smashing success and lead to the creation of several new, highly innovative and creative films.
There is no reason this trend cannot continue in game producing. Yes, mainstream games will MOSTLY be a rehash of the same thing. But there will still be the occasional gem that falls in from outside. I doubt gaming is going to die.
no
And his argument about the original game generation getting older? Man, that's just moronic, IMO. Someone may want to let this guy know that people are still having kids, these kids are still growing up, and --- guess what? playing video games. Not only that, but more are playing these days than ever before, especially as gaming is no longer seen as a lonely geek thing with all the associated stigma of that.
I do agree with certain aspects of his article, but we all have to remember that we were blessed to live through the birth stages of videogaming. Of *course* after that period of rapid change things are going to solidify and we're going to end up with less pure innovation -- this happens in every industry and even in every creative medium. But that doesn't mean new ideas and new technologies wont burst through every now and then to revitalize things... That's just the normal cycle of how these things work, get used to it....
There is no reason storytelling cannot be as powerful in video games as it is in movies. Every couple of months I fire up Halo just so I can play through the last level in "Legendary" mode and watch the easter egg cut scene. It's funny. It makes me laugh.
The only limitation faced by today's game companies is that they just don't have very good storytellers. Great programmers, brilliant artists, and fiendish level designers. But terrible writing. The fact that 16 year olds are the target audience doesn't help, either. But that is changing.
Neverwinter Nights has almost hit upon the right combination: a toolset for allowing others to tell stories. Besides a few technical limitations, their biggest mistake has been in their business model. By not allowing authors to sell content the are creating a disincentive to anyone pouring in tons of time. The best stuff I've seen, and in fact the only good stuff I've seen (and admittedly I haven't looked at a whole lot) was written by a guy who is basically using NWN to create a portfolio to find a job after he graduates from college. He's invested the time because he does plan to get 'paid', if indirectly, for his work.
Or take a look at Red vs. Blue. Done with the Halo engine, it's freakin' brilliant. Non-gamers I know, non-gaming GIRLS even (well, according to 3rd party reports; I don't actually know any girls like that) think Red vs. Blue is a masterpiece.
The point is that the story telling quality of most games is still terribly primitive, and it won't take technological innovation to make it better. We just need better story tellers to try their hand at it. When that happens the best of the best will be classics for a long, long time, regardless of how out-of-date the fog effects in them become.
Assuming our descendents can find the hardware to play them, of course.
Actually, I was trying to be Insightful, not Funny.
From the article:
Samus is a girl, dumbass.
Anonymous Luddite: "What do you think of the dehumanizing effects of the Internet?"
Andy Grove: "Not Much."
1. The technological plateau he speaks of is merely a graphical one, and it only seems like a plateau because new game consoles don't come out every month.
There's also the consideration that there are many places for the technology to expand. GTA3, despite what one may think about its gamesplay, hints at what is possible. Maybe the graphics won't improve much, but the world will get bigger and more detailed. The fascination of GTA3 for me was the ability to just wander around, down alleyways that had nothing to do with the missions and find stairways to rooftops, trash bins- all sorts of real world details. Lots of the world reacted to your actions. That's a neat thing. When your video game is an entertaining toy outside of the core gameplay, you've really accomplished something.
There's more to games than polygon count. Most of the game worlds, even the likes of Halo, are still fairly primitive compared to what could be done with ever more processing power. The end of graphical improvement might be a GOOD thing, and force developers to focus on gameplay, computer character AI, and other things that are a bit lacking these days.
2. He didn't really seem to have an argument in this section. ??? His view of the types of enjoyment derived from video games is a bit limited.
3. His horizon is limited. The video games may (or may not) be reaching upwards of 90% penetration into the current market, but the *market* is exapanding. Technological civilization is creeping into parts of the world not yet elevated to such.
He also seems to oddly forget that new generations are being born, and *everything* is new and novel to them.
4. Are the Gamecube and X-Box really complete failures? They've all sold millions of units. They didn't sell as well because [A] the PS2 got there first and [B] not as many good games. The X-Box especially only had maybe two decent titles for a long time.
As for age, he's entitled to his opinion, but I play games in my late 30's. I know people in their 40's and 50's who regularly play PS2 games and PC games. To use his belabored Hollywood comparison, most people seem to realize that, just as there are movies for children and adults, there are also video games for children and adults.
5. He might be right here. I already have home theater stuff. I want a game console to play games. I don't need a jack of all trades, master of none. That's why I expect a minicrash when these All In One systems fail to sell.
6. Agreed on the online play. I know Final Fantasy *fanatics* who have zero desire in FF11 Online. The reaction is usually, "Wait, I bought a game and I have to keep paying every month?"
7. was just a rehash.
--- Ban humanity.
That entire article is onlt one man's opinion and not the absolute truth. Everyone is different hence you cannot predict what people want and/or will want in the future. Trust me many have tried on numerous topics and failed miserably.
Gaming has a long past and even brighter future regardless if gameplay isn't massively different in the future. A game is about passing time, escaping, a hobby, and plain ole fun.
There are millions of games out there for all types of preferences and all types of attention spans. There is something for everyone. Even though there seems to be a lack of original content in the last few years there has been an advancement in gameplay. More interactivity (HL2 environments), a move towards team based play and operating vehicles (CoD, BF 1942, UT2k4), and this is just in FPS's. MM's are also evolving into more of a FP view with much more depth not including SW Galaxies.
Things don't evolve overnight and some people just like to whine about the current state of affairs but I see it simply evolving at a slower pace because there's a lot more companies making games these days and orginality is harder to come by.
FYI- the author stated that people these days don't play the recent older games and I disagree. There's plenty of Q1, Q2, HL players out there. They are still creating new content (maps, models, etc.) so those scenes are still alive although not as large as they used to be.
The last thing I'll say is I totally disagree about once you're over 35 you can't game because you're a loser or manchild or somthing along those lines. I was on a blizzard board a while back and some guy stated that he thought most gamers are in the 15-20 year old range. Gamers came out of the woodwork to tell their age and why they game. The average gamer was over 40 and the oldest was 72!
Don't let people who do no research and simply speculate convince you of something that is completely untrue.
Gaming is here to stay even if games stopped evolving from this day on.
It's simply a part of our lives...
You aren't free to do anything, until you've lost everything.
It's not your age that's the problem. It's how long you've been playing video games. The first games you play tend to be the ones you remember as being the best because you were just starting out in computer games and everything is still new and novel.
Here's a few old-school examples:
When I started in games id Software's Wolfenstein 3D was in full stride and I enjoyed the hell out of it. Then came DOOM. For me DOOM was one of the best games ever made, with Wolf3D being among the other top ten contenders.
A year or so later ROTT came out. Technically it was somewhere between Wolf3D and DOOM and a LOT of people who were just getting into gaming thought it was the best thing around. I thought it was crap (and I still do). Was it crap? Objectively, no. Subjectively? For me it was.
Nothing in the FPS world interested me much until Quake 1 came out and we all got real 3D. Since Quake 1 it's mostly been refinements and prettier environs. Nothing has wow'd me like Quake 1 except for Half-Life and that wasn't because of the graphics.
Are these new FPS games (and I use these example because these are what I play) not well done? Are they bilge? Do they suck? Some do, but many are very well made games. They just don't dazzle me anymore because I've been there and seen that. Now there are just more colors and rounder asses on the women.
It's very hard to recapture the wonder you felt when you first started playing games.
Boobies never hurt anyone. - Sherry Glaser.
The game industry has been around a long time. It can adapt and change all it wants.
The real reason the game industry is going to die, though, is going to be me, the original gamer parent. All of us with Ataris and NESs and SNESs are now having kids.
I plan on playing video games with my kids.
How many times is my 8 year-old going to have to get beat down by me in Street Fighter 6 EX Alpha Plus+ before he chucks the controller across the room in disgust for having lost the 537th game in a row? How many UT2k12 frags and gibings before he breaks down and cries? Will I have to score 300 points in Madden 2011 before he finally gives in to my superior hand/eye coordination?
My kids are going to *hate* playing video games because dad is either using the system already, or they're going to get their noob ass handed to them each and every time they play.
We may have a graphical-niceties plateau, at some point. We're not there quite yet.
But, what can be done with improved processing power from now on?
1. BETTER AI. We can improve AI at range. Instead of monsters staying in one place in a game till they hear the player, they can ALL be moving around in the level, ALL the time. If you never know exactly where they are, the game gets more exciting. One time you go through, sure, they might be right around the corner - the next, they're NOT right there, and instead they're sitting back waiting to ambush you somewhere else.
This is not to say that better AI is killer AI, by the way. Better AI is the AI that CLOSEST APPROXIMATES WHAT THE CREATURE SHOULD DO. If I'm in a D&D adventure and killing Orcs, I expect them to ACT like Orcs. If they're some devious wizard, I expect run-and-snipe tactics. If they're a brawny brawler, I expect to be charged. The better processing power you have, the less you have to cut corners, and the deeper you can make the AI such that a creature not only looks and sounds as expected, but ACTS like one might expect it to.
2. EXPANDED LEVEL SIZE. This is one of those biggies. Doom, for all its technological prowess of the time, relied on sending players back and forth through levels a lot. Hexen, with its "hub" setup, even more so - reusing content to make things SEEM much bigger than they were.
The PS2 can't handle the size of areas we want these days. Best example is the PS2 port of Deus Ex, where every level got chopped up into 5-10 areas with load zones in order to fit them together, as compared to the original PC version (which still rocks, BTW).
3. Multilinear gameplay. THIS is where the "in the movies" feel comes from - where YOU, the GAMER, are picking what the story is. Choosing your side and defining what your character thinks/feels is a level of immersion that makes pencil-and-paper gaming still survive and even thrive today, and video games are finally going expand out from the "reading a book" format of the Final Fantasy 'roleplaying' idea, into the TRUE Roleplaying idea where you have a control over your character's destiny and placement.
4. Finally, he misses out on where video games are going. Look at Hollywood: how many pathetic, bad, annoying sequel movies or just bad premises with bad actors are put into theaters or straight to video each year? TONS. The Video Game industry is the same way, and the reviewers are important in both industry in getting people to buy in - but the number of games is a sign of long-term health, not a signal of impending doom.
"You see, there was a video game industry apocalypse once before, in the early 80's. The market was flushed down the toilet by a putrid swirl of bad Atari games, players realizing that Hot Dog Maze was just Pac-Man with different colors. They didn't abandon the Atari 2600 in favor of something better. They abandoned it in favor of not playing video games."
And yet the players still swamped the arcades - something the president of Nintendo realized before releasing his NES onto the American market. The problem with the Atari was not that all the games stagnated. There was still innovation, even in the 1983-1984. The problem was cartridge glut. No one could find those great games under the mounds of useless trash. Everyone could make games for the Atari and everyone did - even ppl who had no right making video games (Colgate anyone?). That is one of the reasons why the magazine Nintendo Power and the Nintendo License was so mind-boggingly important. It was an assurance of quality. Now we have the Internet. You are truely gutsy for buying games now without looking for reviews first. We have a similiar environment to 1983 now, but the difference is we can tell what is good/crap. As such, his analogy to the 80's fails. Just becuase we are mired knee deep in trash doesn't mean we will see a similiar crash.
On a greater note, there is just something about video games that keep pulling people back. I still go back and play Mario 3. I still spend hours on end sometimes playing Keystone Kapers and Laser Blast. It is more than just the novelty that draws people to games. It is more than just something to do. It is an experience that transcends your current reality. As the author said, it allows you to be Luke Skywalker - but just becuase you don't want to permantely be Luke Skywalker does not mean that no one will ever replay the game. The games keep bringing people back. While I agree with him that in fact the market for 'Buy this game cause we have modeled dust particles' is going to die, the whole market won't. Games that are good and inventive will still survive. A lot of companies will drop out, no doubt. But the ones like Nintendo that can still be inventive with gameplay and still bring about a great experience will still go on.
As for the movie analysis, there is a difference he hasn't taken into account. The Internet. Not only can we have games that involve ppl in stories but we have games that can involve people in stories with their friends. When you add the fact that not only you but your friend can play, the possibilities grow exponentially larger. Look at WoW and Everquest. They may not even be games anymore. Rather they are environments the user can interact in. You don't get the same with a movie. With a movie you are forcefed the producers/directors vision of what he wants you to see. With games you get a choice. You get to skip shit you don't like and focus on stuff you do like. And with the birth of the Internet, those choices will multiple with future games, not decline. And the 'online gmers' he talks about are by far a minority in my experience. I know a lot of people that play games online just for fun and not becuase they have a need to boost their self esteem by zerg rushing noobs. In addition, with improving AI's we also are losing the predicatble games. The Future? In one game, the opponent may be down a hall, in another he may have moved a different direction. We are quickly moving away from bound points and set patrol paths. In the future, you will be attacking units of enemies, not just pre defined defenses. Take a look at the plans for Thief 3 if you don't believe me.
In additon, if his analogy was true, we would have never watched movies as long as we have. Afterall, there are only so many romances you can watch, only so many war movies right. The novely of seeing them on the screen should have worn off and left us all back with our books. So why hasn't it? Hollywood and books gives us experiences that are different and hence they both can exist together. T
There's a growing sense that even if The Future comes,
most of us won't be able to afford it.
-- Lemmy
While the author makes a good point that point-and-shoot gameswill only go so far, I think he misses three key points:
1) We're starting to see more and more action games merge with elements of role-playing games. I thought that GTA: Vice City was really moving in this direction, where instead of physically growing stronger you get more influence and wealth to do whatever you want but you can take it in whatever order you want. Granted, there are several aspects of RPG that could be incorporated into that game if someone felt like it (control your own fate, have some kind of karma scale that causes people to react differently towards you, etc.), but expect to see many more games incorporating both these aspects in the coming years. Some of these will be retreads of VC or any number of already existant games (note similarities between Fallout: BOS and Dark Alliance 2 for Xbox) but others will forge new frontiers (Crimson Skies?).
2) Online gameplying is *burgeoning*. My brother plays Star Wars: Galaxies almost every other day and has two characters. He knows people from around the world just by playing with them and interacting digitally. Look at Final Fantasy XI and the huge number of Japanese and American players on it: the companies involved get $(X)/month without having to do much more than upgrade the system and its option every so often. I predict that this will turn into a mainstay of the video game market, especially for the true RPG fans.
3) Like it or not, the advanced military projects of VR and newer man-machine integration systems will eventually become incorporated into video game systems and maybe even the Internet. Imagine video games in a 3-D setting either by VR or "plug-and-play" a la Matrix from Shadowrun. Predicting where technology will go is tricky, but developments in holograph technology and other *exotic* computer applications are already being worked on. Maybe we've hit a temporary plateau, but that doesn't mean it is permanent by any means. How long is it before we could see a quantum processor running a fully interactive video game system with either Resident Evil 13 (where you can feel the zombies attack you and maybe play as one yourself?) or Grand Theft Auto: 7.0 in the city of your choice with fully accurate maps. The possibilities for technological advancement are endless and should not be automatically discounted just because things have "slowed down" in the last few years.
As long as there is a Second Amendment, there will always be a First Amendment.
Perhaps its a need to defend my love of gaming, but that article was mostly bullshit. Most of time I was reading it, I couldn't tell if it was a joke or not. I hope it was.
:).
I won't waste time arguing about how games are repeating their formulas, which you've all mentioned already that Hollywood does the same; that like Hollywood, games will simply refine and re-tell. I won't waste a good rant on how fucked up an argument could be that gaming, indeed technology, has reached a graphical plateau.
There is one good point, however: the aging First Generation and the New Generation.
Someone earlier mentioned that most of the First Generation, defined by me as anyone who *remembers* when the NES was rolled out (or any earlier console), are getting on with their lives, getting married, having children, and basically getting weighed down with other responsiblities. I'm 25, consider myself a First Gen Gamer (my first 'console' was a TI-99/4A, with speech synth!!), married, have a baby boy, a house, a career, and the other crap. Gaming these days isn't like it used to be. Along with that, I find myself drawn to only the best of the best of games. I don't have time or money to buy and sift through the crap games from the greats.
Personally, I think its the switch to the New Generation of gamers thats gonna be the problem, not the industry itself. Most of us First Gens gaming will slow to a crawl, and the New Gens will be the ones screaming to the developers as to what they want. Most of the New Gens aren't as wowed by ever-increasing technology as us First Gens are. For us, the novelty is still there while the New Gens mostly expect it.
The industry isn't going to know how to deal with the New Gens at first. They're a completely different breed. And us First Gens are only gonna slow in our gaming (tho we may not necessarily slow down in the purchasing of them
Then again, the switch could be seamless. Who knows.
Just watch Japan. If it happens in the game industry, it will happen there first.