Rocket Science vs. Barry Bonds

Ray Radlein writes "How about a good old-fashioned Sports story? With its multitude of different statistical measures, baseball has always had the highest Geek Quotient of any major sport. Alpha Geeks of Baseball have included former relief pitcher Rob Murphy, who put his Computer Science degree to good use writing software to evaluate thoroughbred race horses, and Boston Red Sox ace and probable future Hall of Famer Curt Schilling, who not only runs a company that makes hex-based war games, but once got embroiled in an on-field feud due to Everquest. However, Baseball Geeks have a new hero to look up to: Jason Szuminski, who on Sunday became the first MIT graduate to pitch in a major league baseball game. His degree in Aerospace Engineering must have stood him in good stead as he observed the ballistic trajectory of a Barry Bonds fly ball which just barely stayed inside the Padres' new stadium."

Comments

There is a future in Baseball for Geeks

[Pave Low]

and it's not on the field. It's in the front office.

The generation of Moneyball General Managers is here. Billy Beane, John DePodesta (Harvard), Theo Epstein (Yale) are paving the way for seamheads who know baseball and use statistical analysis to build their teams.

Now, there's hope for geeks with math and statistics degrees who want to break into baseball.

Curt Schilling, -NOT- a HOF'er.

[dameron]

Not really even close. He's 37 and has 164 wins. Ain't gonna happen.

-dameron

Re:Curt Schilling, -NOT- a HOF'er.

[syrinx]

After he takes the Sox to the World Series and they win, he might. ;)

Re:Curt Schilling, -NOT- a HOF'er.

[Ray Radlein]

Baseball Reference's Hall of Fame Monitor has him at 127 points already; no eligible pitcher of the modern era with more than 130 points is not in the Hall of Fame (well, Lee Smith, with 136 points, isn't in yet, but it's a fair bet that he'll get in before his eligibility is up, and he's a reliever anyway).

His score of 33 on the Black Ink Test puts him in the company of Juan Marichal (34), Three Finger Brown (35) and Old Hoss Radbourn (35); once again, every eligible pitcher of the modern era with a Black Ink score of 33 or higher is in the Hall (heck, if it weren't for Sudden Sam McDowell at 32, and Ron Guidry at 29, we could run that number all the way down to Hippo Vaughn and Dolph Luque at 27).

The Gray Ink Test isn't quite as kind to him, mainly because it is kinder to a lot of other pitchers (interestingly, it's the only one of the tests that puts Maddux ahead of Clemens, so I automatically like it). The Gray Ink Test has him at 168, down amongst a lot of weaker Hall of Famers such as Dazzy Vance (171) and Red Faber (161), and a lot of good non-HoFers like Claude Passeau (170) and Allie Reynolds (161). On the other hand, it's a lot easier to pick up additional points on the Gray Ink Test, so it's virtually certain that he'll move up on that list.

Finally, the Hall of Fame Standards Test, calibrated to give an "average" Hall of Famer 50 points, has him way down on the list, at 37 (along with Mickey Lolich and Dennis Martinez). That's still higher than Hall of Famers such as Herb Pennock (36), Eppa Rixey (35), and Hal Newhouser (34); but it's lower than Luis Tiant (41), Carl Mays (41), and Babe Adams (39). Still, looking at that list, most of the players ahead of him are either (a) not eligible, (b) pre-lively ball, (c) in the Hall, or (d) ought to be in the Hall (i.e., Bert Blyleven at 50, Jim Kaat and Tommy John at 44).

Of these indicators, the Hall of Fame Monitor numbers are probably the best known and most trusted, and those numbers say that he's already pretty much a lock. Give him a couple of pretty godd years with a pretty good team, and he'll be a sure thing.

Re:sequence

[aridhol]

But Alexa determines rank by the installation of spyware. Most slashdotters know enough about spyware to not have Alexa installed.

Re:Most Geek Sport - I think not

[Speed Racer]

Well, there are only two countries where the teams actually are based but Major League Baseball players have been born in the following countries: United States, Australia, Bahamas, Canada, Colombia, Cuba, Curacao, Dominican Republic, England, France, Germany, Holland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Nicaragua, Puerto Rico, Panama, Scotland, South Korea, Virgin Islands, Venezuela, W.Germany, Norway, Wales, Sweden, Afghanistan, Spain , Greece , Taiwan, Philippines, Russia, Ukraine, Czechoslovakia, Jamaica, Poland, Aruba, Okinawa , Russia , South Vietnam, Denmark, Switzerland, Singapore, China, Austria, Belgium, British Honduras, Finland, Spain, Netherlands , American Samoa, Honduras,

ROGER MARIS USES STEROIDS

[Anonymous Coward]

Waah Waah Waah.

Read this for a better perspective on Bond's possible steroid use.

Roger Maris's HR totals go like this:

14, 28, 16, 39, 61, 33, 23, 26, 8, 13, 9, 5

Thanks to baseball-reference.com.

Oh, yeah, 1961 was an expansion year. Nothing like a journeyman whacking away at diluted pitching to break Ruth's single-season HR record...

PS - Barry Bonds is about the same size and weight as Brett Favre...

Re:Most Geek Sport - I think not

[rm007]

I don't know why I am responding to an AC, but for the record, and to clear this up once and for all, the World Series is not named so as to imply global significance, its orginal sponsor was a newspaper called the New York World.

Re:Yeah, Whatever

[Em Emalb]

Harvard good enough for you?

From Harvard's own website:

Harvard football has seen a tremendous resurgence in the number of graduates who have gone onto the professional ranks. Over the past four years, seven Crimson players have been drafted or signed professional contracts and six remain active heading into the 2001 season. Among them is Matt Birk '98, the starting center for the Minnesota Vikings who was named to the NFL's 2000 All-Pro Team.

This past April, Mike Clare 01, a First Team All-America at offensive tackle, signed a free agent contract with the NFL's Cleveland Browns. A year ago, linebacker Isaiah Kacyvenski '00 became Harvard's highest-ever draft pick when he was taken in the fourth round (119th overall selection) by the Seattle Seahawks. Shortly after the 2000 draft, tight end Chris Eitzmann '00 was signed by the New England Patriots and defensive end Mike Sands '00 agreed to terms with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Eitzmann appeared in several games last fall for the Patriots, while Sands remains property of the Steelers and played this spring for the Rhein Fire of NFL Europe.



(Yeah, I know it was a joke, but there are plenty of smart jocks out there)

Re:Most Geek Sport - I think not

[AaronBS]

World Series is not named so as to imply global significance, its orginal sponsor was a newspaper called the New York World.

Actually a quick google search reveals otherwise.

Re:But wait...

[GileadGreene]

...you have to knock the block off...

"Bails", actually. But you have right idea.

BTW, it is possible to be called for a "wide" bowl in cricket, and the lines for that are almost as imaginary as the ones in baseball. That said, I'll take a good limited-overs cricket match (which does not experience a Halting Problem) over a baseball game any day.

What about Curt?

[SuperBanana]

The guy that Schilling played everquest with, Doug Glanville has got to be the reigning baseball alpha geek

How about Curt Schilling himself, who carries a powerbook on the road and has quicktime clips and a database of hundreds of batters?

Reportedly he also spent time on a famous red sox chat board the night before he signed with the sox, trying to make up his mind whether he should sign...and convince everyone he really was Curt Schilling(he managed to, after instantly returning questions on his career stats that, according to friends, would have taken a "good baseball researcher" at least 5-10 minutes to find).

He finished up VERY late that night(well, morning) by saying essentially "Thanks, I've decided to sign with the sox, I've always heard red sox fans were the most knowledgeable, you guys have proved it". A few hours later(heh) at the press conference, John Henry(who also logged in at one point) joked(along the lines of) "and in Curt's contract is a clause prohibiting him from staying up past midnight talking on internet chat boards the day before a game."

Re:What about Curt?

[MJN222]

That board is Sons of Sam Horn.

Bill Simmons wrote about that night on SOSH in one of his columns on Page 2.

It's pretty amusing for a player of Schlling's caliber to be up late at night posting on boards that I frequent :-)

Re:I love baseball..

[Omerna]

Just FYI, if you think about it the infield fly rule makes perfect sense... it was developed because before it was institued EVERY pop fly in the infield resulted in a double play (in the situations in which it applies). This is because the base runners never knew if the infielders would catch the ball or let it drop. No matter what happened-- whether the ball was caught and a runner doubled up or the ball wasn't caught and there would be an easy double play-- there WOULD BE a double play. Now you only get one (automatic) out unless the runners are incredibly stupid.

Re:WHAT AN IDIOT

[Omerna]

It was invented to keep the team in the field from getting two outs whenever the bases were loaded or there were men on 1st and 2nd and the batter popped up in the infield (or shallow outfield, umpire's disgression).

The reasoning was: the runners had no chance to get out of a double play. The fielder could choose to catch the ball (and double up the runner) or drop the ball (and make an easy double play). The runner was damned if he ran to break up the DP or damned if stayed on base to keep from getting doubled up. Now the team in the field just gets one (automatic) out.

But I guess you probably weren't serious.

Re:Yeah

[k_187]

Actually that was Raphael, with the red mask.

Re:It ain't just the players.

[abmurray]

Didn't read the linked article, but you seem to have missed an important point.

Students of James' philosphy, if not his exact methodology, run the Oakland A's (Billy Beane), Los Angeles Dodgers (Paul DePodesta), Toronto Blue Jays (J.P. Ricciardi), and Boston Red Sox (Theo Epstein), to name a few.

The "not giving a shit" you quote from the article is true: 20 years ago the teams didn't care. But anyone who follows the game today would be hard pressed to argue against the influence Bill James and sabermetrics in general have had on the game.

As a huge baseball fan in general, and an A's fan in particular, I recommend Moneyball. An earlier post mentioned it, I think. It examines pretty much everything that I've covered in this post.

A really fascinating read, even for non-fans.