On The State Of Handheld Videogaming

Thanks to GCAdvanced.com for its mammoth 30+ page article interviewing developers and journalists about the state of the handheld videogame industry. Highlights include Karthik Bala of Vicarious Visions on why wireless matters for handhelds ("We've done plenty of multiplayer game modes for our GBA games, but the need for a link cable really limits the number of players who will play them. Our first N-Gage title supports Bluetooth multiplayer and we'll also be supporting the upcoming GBA wireless adapter in [an] upcoming game"), and Steven Kent's predictions for handheld market share by the end of 2005: "My guess [in descending order]: GBA, DS, PSP, N-Gage QD, Zodiac."

Comments

Re:DS, PSP, Sony???

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Two things the market has historically shown:
1. No handheld priced over $100 has EVER succeeded.
2. Battery life is more important than processing power.

The gameboy beat and has beat all comers because it's been the cheapest(always $100 or less) and has had the best battery life. Add into this the quality of the handheld games and the inevitable deluge of third party software due to it's ubiquity and cracking the Gameboy market share is a tough thing to do. Not to mention over 10 years of backwards compatible games, a large catalog of games which appeal to the thus far primary market for handhelds(children [Hence the importance of low cost]), and a now quite slick design.

SEGA failed with the Gamegear, and that was color versus black and white released by a company who at the time shared the console throne with Nintendo AND had strong first party titles(as Nintendo does and Sony doesn't). It was also competing at a time when there weren't several thousand Gameboy titles in the back catalog.

Atari failed too, miserably.

Nokia most recently failed, and failed miserably.

So, why do people think the PSP is going to do well? Because of Sony's dominance in the Console realm? It didn't help SEGA when SEGA was sharing dominance with Nintendo. Because it's technically superior offering? Hasn't helped any other competitors.

What we have upcoming is the maker of the number two non-PC gaming product(the PS2) trying to take on the number one non-PC gaming product(the GBA).

The handheld market really isn't all that screwy, it's actually pretty easy to understand. To succeed you need a cheap product with excellent battery life that can compete with the experience offered by other offerings. So far, most competitors have gotten the last bit to one degree or another. Nokia failed on all 3 fronts. Those 3 points are absolutely necessary to capture the existing market away from Nintendo.

Nintendo's gameboy is the platinum standard, it IS the handheld market for all intents and purposes, and it's been the market for quite some time.

Now, if you want to argue that Sony stands a chance at growing the handheld market, as they did with the Console market, and thus introducing new factors required for success in that realm, I'll buy that as a possibility. I do not however see it, because I don't see the primary market for consoles using handheld gaming devices enough to justify the purchase of one without getting additional value from it they can't get elsewhere.

In my case for instance, I'll just wait a year and throw down a bit more change and get a PS3 or a GCN2 or an XBox 2.

Then add in the following things we know about Sony:
1. No gaming product they have released has lived up to it's hype. See also: the PS2.
2. They have an awful reputation for hardware longevity, their stuff breaks, frequently. See also: the PS1/PS2.

Except for a few developers, I expect the vast majority to take a wait and see approach to the PSP. I see it occupying at best the position the GameGear was in. A distant but respectable second and a must-own for the hardcore, but not the mainstream all pervasive product the PS2 or GBA are.

As to the DS. The DS is a niche product, and built to be a niche product. It's an attempt to give gamers stuff they aren't going to get on a console, or PC, or on the GBA/PSP. New concepts, new types of games, and the like. It's primary purpose is not as a handheld, it just could only work as a handheld(due to the two screens), so it really isn't targetted in anyway at the handheld market, though I'm sure people from that market will buy it.