Slashdot Mirror
Is Windows Losing Ground?
Rimbo asks: "I work for a small company developing wireless mesh networks to (among other things) give broadband access to large areas where a single access point can't cover the whole place. Since we're small, we made the mesh networking application for Windows, intending to support other platforms later. To our surprise, our first beta site complained: 'Most of our residents use Apples.' Has anyone else experienced anything similar? Is Windows losing its dominance to the point where small shops must consider multiple OS support to get business, either through Java, 'web services,' or cross-platform toolkits like Qt?" With the number of IE vulnerabilities, macro viruses, exploits and other such annoyances over the years, is this really that surprising?
No!
I think it's the power of "word of mouth" in action. Let's face it, Windows still has 95% of the desktop market. It's just when your next door neighbour gets his shiney new G5 and invites his friends around to show them how cool Mac OS X is, they all go and buy Macintoshes, then their friends go and buy Macintoshes, and so on. You get islands of Linux users and Macintosh users in small communities all over the place. Unfortunately they're not very representitive of the industry as a whole.
Boy, glad to see that unscientific guesswork from extremely limited statistical samples is alive and well! ;)
I watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhauser gate.
Why would anyone go for an alternative?, Windows total cost of ownership is far lower then free software alternatives, independent studies have proven it, Microsoft is your friend, freedom is slavery.
Seriously though since what you're creating needs to be run on every machine in the place (If I understand right) even if they are only running a couple of Linux/Mac machines it could easily be a deal killer if those few machines can't be connected up so it's probably a good idea to go for cross platform support.
In Soviet Russia Slashdot cliches use you
If Linux were not a threat to Window's market dominance, would Microsoft be advertising Windows vs. Linux benchmarks on Slashdot?
I think its pretty safe to say windows is not losing much ground, especially when related to an isolated incident where someone encountered a majority of Apple systems. I could use similar logic when walking into my schools labs, but the hypothesis falls apart when I goto studios running primarily Windows, or large businesses. The editor's comment is pretty much pure conjecture, even if there has been a minor budging towards OSX.
"What can a thoughtful man hope for mankind on Earth, given the experience of the past million years? Nothing." -Bokonon
After four years of almost exclusively Visual Basic development since a switch from PowerBuilder and un*x, we are now officially in "catch up to our competitors" mode. I warned my boss a year ago that our main clients were going to a Java J2EE model of application deployment. Not just going: completely overhauling and rewriting all their old apps. Where before VB/Windows solutions were happily accepted, today they are rejected outright. Just today, I was working out specs for a small project, and I could see it working either way: VB or Java. The answer was "Well, I suppose we could accept a Visual Basic solution under certain extreme circumstances."
Needless to say, my boss is freaking, with a stable of VB developers and only three (including myself) with Java experience. The change has come quickly, but we could have been better prepared than this.
The reason that Windows/VB is rejected: too much of a headache deploying and maintaining when compared to a J2EE solution.
HBH"Smart is sexy." -- D. Scully ("War of the Coprophages")
Analysis.
Something that is required by most companies, because it's simply common sense. If this poster would have asked the client instead of assuming what platform they should code for, they would have avoided this problem.
both linux and windows were written in C, and are more or less about equal in security
Well, for our own small company, one of our ideas was to create systems filled with all opensource products, such as OpenOffice.org, Image Magick, etc... (and Tribes :-D), and say it's pre-bundled with loads of great software for business solutions, games, music, composition, etc. One thing that Linux GUI's have that Windows doesn't is that they're free. :-)
--I gots 99 problems but a new machine ain't one!
AMD! Asus! Whoot! 6 years!
I know they're not a small company, but I know they support multiple OS's to meet customer needs. This Interview with Martin Fink talks about it. It's kind of old, but it's a good read.
From the Interview:
How would you characterize Linux sales, in terms of hardware?
The vast majority is on Intel x86 servers. We're also seeing sales on Itanium, especially for large supercomputing applications. There's an airport whose approach control system is HP Linux on Itanium. Right now, Linux is definitely the leader on Itanium. HP is not all about Linux. We're about multiple operating systems. Our analysis shows that 85 percent of enterprises have multiple operating systems. The idea of saying, "The world is about Linux" is not the real world. The real world is, "You've got to have a strong Linux solution, but you've also got to have Windows and Unix." Our Systems Insight Manager (formerly Nimbus) is a platform that looks across the whole thing.
HP has a close relationship with Microsoft. How does pushing Linux affect that relationship?
Our strategy is a multi-operating system strategy. IBM is pushing Linux at the expense of other things. We're pushing Linux as part of a complete enterprise solution. Does Microsoft want HP to be selling Linux stuff? No. But at the same time, they understand that Linux is in the market, and we have to compete. It's not about competing with Microsoft. HP is not poking a finger in their eye. It's about competing with Dell and IBM.
Maybe that community was actually a country club started by "Mac Lovers". You need to own atleast 1 Mac in order to gain membership.
-Grump
Is it true that more people vote for the winner of American Idol, than vote for the president? -Ali G.
Sorry for the lame headline, my brain is spent for today.
I don't think you can say they are losing ground yet, (at least on the desktop, where we all know this is going to get interesting) but I think a lot of people are 'leaning over' the box to look inside and see what's going on with Apple, Linux, etc.
Yes, I think viruses and security problems are a big part of that.
No, it's not the only part. I honestly think people are getting tired of Microsoft insisting that they need to upgrade just because they have a new version out and the strongarm tactics are really putting them off. MS needs to learn how to fork a project so they can maintain support and improve features for those who want to stay with the older desktops (like Win98SE), while people who don't like thinking for themselves and controlling their own property can plow right on ahead into Longhorn.
This is way off topic, but I don't care becuase I had an idea yesterday. I've been trying to get someone to tell me one good reason for MS wanting to get rid of the web browser as a stand-alone application, and I think I came up with one for myself.
I'm just hypothesiX0ring here, but hear me out. This is fascinating.
The whole idea behind
Sounds great, right? Well, remember, this is M-I-C-R-O-S-O-F-T we're talking about. So think a minute.... what's the MOST ANNOYING thing about the internet? SPAM? Spyware/Trojans? HAH! Pop-up ads!
So, imagine a world where all your pop-ups are PROGRAMS.
The worst case scenario I've come up with so far is that you try to run OpenOffice and some piece of crap adbot spyware like Claria/Gator (which TCPA won't let you disable because you agreed to a license authorizing it) opens up MS Word or WordPerfect for you instead. Worse, without a browser, how are you going to find all these wonderful apps? Well, your START menu is going to evolve into little more than a flashing neon billboard loaded with GREAT DEALS! It's only job will be to steer you toward the software and services whose vendors are most willing to pay to be on your START menu.
Think about it -- why was Passport so important - to make multi-site logins possible? Hell no! How about web services? Apps as a service? XAML?
Maybe the days of contolling the PC you bought and paid for are truly over in MS land, eh?
Please tell me I'm wrong, because I really hope I am. It *is* late, and I've had a very long day, so I'm probably more paranoid than average. But if I'm not, I think MS is signing their own death certificate because nobody's gonna go along with that kind of a hairbrained scheme.
"Lawyers are for sucks."
- Doug McKenzie
I recently evaluated hardware from one of your competitors. The only reason I chose not to purchase their mesh networking product was the lack of a Linux driver. They actually have one, but consider it proprietary and will only give customers the Windows driver.
According to Google Zeitgeist, Windows has accounted for the same 95% of Google's search traffic since 2001. MacOS and Linux accounted for 4% and 1%. This isn't the same as market share, but it's better than a lot of those sponsored studies that only count license purchases.
Part of the reason Windows is still highly ranked could be attributed to education of Windows users, who switch from their default search engine to google, while the rest of us are already well informed, but that would just mean that the 2001 95% estimate was biased against Windows.
Gary (-;
To our surprise, our first beta site complained: 'Most of our residents use Apples.'
You can't take a comment like that at face value. A lot of Mac users assume that everyone else also uses a Mac, primarily because they, personally, have never used anything else.
It's possible that you have managed to find a place where Macs are predominant. Your really need to survey the population that you hope to serve before you can assume that is the case.
If your product only works with Windows right now, then plan your beta test accordingly. Talk to the site ahead of time, ask for a tally of what systems and OS versions they use, and then decide whether to roll out the product.
That ensures that you look successful and professional.
Three Squirrels
Yeah. "Requirements Analysis" is good talk, but when you're a dozen folks scrambling to meet different markets, sometimes you find time to do it right... sometimes you don't.
That the plural of anecdote is not data.
Yes, I believe Linux is gaining ground. But I don't believe our individual stories are going to necessarily be representative of the entire industry.
After all, many (most?) or us are here because of Slashdot's pro-Linux bias.
Just something to keep in mind.
- Neil Wehneman
My legal education, in nifty podcast format
... Keyon.com, a wireless ISP?
Bleh!
Well, there was this hot little number last night, and lemme tell ya, I left her wanting!... wait a minute, that's not right.
One of the big problems with trying to compete in the Windows market is that someone most likely has already done what you're trying to do.
And most companies will go with the Ciscos of the world, if they can.
But if they are a Mac shop, then there is a much smaller area for them to play in, and they will be willing to consider smaller companies, if they will cater to them.
That's just my guess about it.
Fellowship 9/11
My experience is that with users that would use a wireless mesh, Macs really do tend to dominate. These are often people who are working all the time outside of an office: grad students, graphic designers, musicians, etc. These tend to be Mac users anyway, but add in the long-ish history of Apple making laptops w/ built-in 802.11 cards, and its plausible that there are an awful lot of Powerbooks being used on these networks.
There is nothing surprising about certain platforms being popular in different, small subgroups of the population. Whether it be Solaris, Linux, OS X, or the mighty Amiga, there is likely going to be some niche, large or small, that finds the particular platform the best tool for the job.
This doesn't mean anything in terms in total market share though. For general purpose office computing, the niche leader is MS Windows. I don't see this changing in any dramatic way, despite the many cross-platform development options out there.
You are only hurting yourself by assuming that Windows is everything. Apple has had several % for years now. IBM sells AS/400, RS/6000, mainframes. Sun sells their Sparc line. HP has their own line of computers. Not to mention all the embedded systems out there, nor the old unsupported systems.
Now windows does have a large % of the market, but it isn't everything. Worse yet for someone who says windows is enough is you are almost right. Almost everyone has windows, so you never notice those sales lost to someone who also cares about that little platform.
The company I work for makes a number of sales because we still support the OS/2 version. Anyone with OS/2 has a plan to get off of it, but that plan is dragging on, and in the mean time they buy our windows version to ensure we will support their OS/2 versions until they are rid of them. (In other words, OS/2 isn't important enough on its own to sell, but it brings enough sales that we can't afford to drop it) We have also lost sales because we don't have a linux version (yet)
That aside, I have a philosophical opposition to homogeneous networks. There should be more than one thing on them, and those different systems should work together.
No, it is not. My argument is that people don't base decisions as to whether to buy hardware that costs over $1000 on just seeing it at their neighbor's house.
No, your argument is that YOU wouldn't base such decisions on such events, and are extrapolating that to other people. Well, here's a news flash for you, ego-boy:
NOT EVERYBODY THINKS LIKE YOU!!!
Do you get it yet? There really, truly, are people who would go out and buy a $2000+ G5 because they saw their friends using it and thought it looked snazzy. You're clearly not one of them, and you may not even know any of them, but they do exist! Plenty of people in this world base decisions on things other than cold, hard, numbers, things like cool looks, friends' words, and even just plain impulse.
So why don't you step out of your basement (or bathroom, as the case may be...) and take a look at the real world every once in a while? You might meet some people who (*gasp*) have opinions other than your own (and my own, and those of anyone else on Slashdot). It will be good for you.
Dan Aris
Fun. Free. Online. RPG. BattleMaster.
Of the people that I talk to that are unemployed, these are the ones with heavy emphasis on Windows. Yes, I run into Windows caretakers that are still employed, but in the last month 100% of the unemployed I've met are Windows geeks.
So yes, it looks like Windows is losing ground. If the OEMs and hardware manufacturers are freed from the onerous licensing requirements that prevent interoperability with anything other than Windows, then we'll really see a drop off.
Dear Slashdot,
Our software works on OSs developed by a goddamned monopoly that overcharges people for software.
Our customers are saying we should develop software for a goddamn monopoly that overcharges for software and hardware, while preaching the notion of form over content to the average Josephs out there.
Are your customers willing to switch to software & hardware monopoly, too?
Thank you, that was it. Go Linux.
I own several laptops, of various speeds and operating systems, including an iBook.
If I were going to a coffee shop and were planing on doing a little web surfing, checking some news sites, etc, I very likely would take my iBook, even though it is neither my fastest, nor my smallest laptop.
The primary thing going for it is it's "Instant On" capability.
My IBM X21 comes out of suspend mode in about 15 seconds. Give or take a few seconds. Out of it's base, with a wifi card, I would expect it to take about a minute to get online and to the point where I could pull down a web page.
With my iBook, by the time I have the screen up, it's ready to go. Pull down the menu to find an active AP, and as necessary log in.
There are some people who report similar responsiveness with their Windows machine, but I suspect that most windows users do not _expect_ to be productive that fast with their laptop. They expect it to take a minute or two to be up and going.
If they have stopped into the coffee shop on a 15 min break, I suspect that most of them will have second thoughts about taking along their laptop, and expecting to get anything done. Theres standing in line to order your coffee, paying for it, waiting for it to be prepared, who knows how long that line is going to be, Then you go find a seat. You may have lost ten minutes already. loosing 20-40% of the remaining time, waiting on the OS to even figure out that you might want to use your computer seems to be a waste of time.
Having a laptop come up and you're off and running, using nearly all of that 5 min to get caught up on the news, slashdot, or filling the coffee shop's web cache with pr0n, seems to me to be more likely to happen with an Apple laptop than a Windows laptop.
Additionally I get far better battery life out of my Apple, than any of my Windows laptops. If I am going to be sitting at the coffee shop for an hour or so, waiting on my next interview, I expect that I would get more work done if I don't have to look for that power tap that isn't conveniently near one of the tables that isn't occupied already.
Then again, that's mostly my opinion. Yours may vary.
-Rusty
You never know...
I'm not sure that this article is asking the right question. Should small companies target customers across a range of platforms because Windows is losing its market dominance? No. Should small companies target customers across a range of platforms for other reasons? Absolutely.
When I evaluate applications for procurement at work, I heavily favor multiplatform apps because we WANT to escape from Windows. At the very least, I don't want my software applications to become "legacy," and force my platform decisions. I regularly refuse to purchase apps that are NOT available for at least linux and OSX as well as Windows. I've been hearing more and more from sales people that they're hearing that more and more from customers. Why should customers tolerate the lazy old "Windows is easy so that's all we did" business from vendors? With the same effort, they probably could have produced a multiplatform Java app. Browser-based applications just make sense, it's a great development model, much better than thick-client for most client-server applications. Makes desktop administration a breeze, and saves all kinds of headaches. Vendors who understand that show that they're interested in their customers' needs.
There's simply more competition in most areas of the Windows market. Why be just one of an array of providers of a similar application or service, when you might potentially be the only one going after the for-now-smaller linux and Mac markets? Grab the niche, become the top provider of XYZ application/service/product, and trust that good sense will eventually mean an overwhelming majority of linux and Mac users in the market. There are plenty of Mac-first and Mac-only software providers out there, they survive by being the big fish in a smaller pond.
There are other reasons as well, but I think the answer to your real question is "yes." Small companies should be motivated to develop across platforms, even when it's hardware drivers and other blood-and-guts development rather than cheerful high-level applications that easily become platform-neutral or multiplatform. Focus less on market "share" and more on "market." There are a lot of Mac and linux (and other) users out there who need good products. It's a NUMBERS game, not a percentage game.
~
"A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds." -Emerson
As a Mac user, I hope so. :)
"Microsoft considers everything as potential threats."
I quess that's why Bill Gates is going after the Broccolli industry.
"Everything is a problem to be solved."
Give it to the dog.
In general, the replacement cycle for Macs is two to three times longer than that for PCs. Part of this difference reflects the difference in price (folks hold onto expensive stuff longer than cheap stuff), and part reflects product quality (Macs don't crap out on you as fast as PCs do). Also, there tends to be an active market in upgrade products for Macs that extends their useful life (and sales of upgrade products don't contribute to a product's market share).
Finally, market share numbers are skewed because people may own or use more than one machine: one at home, one at work, maybe a machine at home just for work stuff, and maybe a laptop. If you do the math you will see that the market share to seat share ratio is roughly proportional to the replacement cycle ratio. While you may be able to safely ignore 3% of the market, could you afford to ignore 10%? What if that 10% were the top 10% that controlled the purchasing decisions for another 40% of the market?
If someone has several machines at home and one of them doesn't work with some home oriented product, even if the other machines work, the person is likely to raise a fuss about the one non-working machine. As a business, you can't really afford to alienate the guy with three PCs and one Mac. Even though he is perfectly able to run your Windows-only product, he may well like the Mac better, or he may just be offended because you are foreclosing a choice that is rightfully his. Under any circumstance, the folks that have several machines are, in general, a more affluent market and you should cater to them (they have more money, which probably means they have better jobs, which probably they have some buying power at work as well as at home)
Even Microsoft is concerned about making products for the Mac. Some of that might be cover for anti-trust lawsuits, but most of it is probably that they know a lucrative market when they see one, and they know that the folks that can afford Macs have lots of money, which probably means that they are important people. If you get them using MS-Office at home, on their Mac, they will be more likely to recommend MS-Office as the standard platform at work, where all the peons in the cheap seats are forced to use it on a Dell or Gateway running Windows.
Even if you use all Windows - if you choose hardware that has multiple platform support, chances are it's of much higher quality.
Examples:
Win-modems vs Hardware Modems
Prism chipset WLAN hardware vs all the other crap.
USB Drives that are true USB Storage Devices and don't need drivers vs proprietary crap that needs special drivers.
PCL 4/5/6 Laser Printers vs the cheep crap where the drivers do all the work.
If is says Linux/Mac on the box - smile and pop it into your Windows box with good results.
Moneyed corporations, non-working 'poor' and criminal prisoners are turning productive citizens into tax-slaves.
Yes there are a lot of non-windows machines out there. You have made 2 big mistakes:
1. Only now after the product has been made are you asking questions that should have been asked at the earliest stages.
2. By using open standards, it wouldnt matter what OS your customers use, they could just plug it in and go. That way your solution would work for any OS that also adheres to open standards.
No need to get swear-y about it.
... some people trust the opinion of their friends when it comes to buying computers, some only trust their own ideals...
Some people obsessively buy only what their friends recommend them to buy - this are 'careful shoppers' who listen to advice - while some other people will always try to learn for themselves, do their own research, etc.
Its simply a scale of trust, and there is no black and white'ness about this, whatsoever. Every single person applies trust to their circumstances similarly but not the same, always
; -- the corruption of government starts with its secrets. a truly free people keep no secrets. --
... the /. community is highly anti-windows, however some advise anyway. ANY repeat ANY new product should NEVER be introduced as a single platform solution. At a bare minimum you need to support Windows, MAC and Linux from the start, and if it uses web technologies it needs to support IE, and Mozilla/Netscape.
Your sales break down will look like 65% Windows, 20% Mac, and 15% Linux at the start, hwoever that balence will shift in time because you support hose other platforms. if your product is good, those "other" platforms are going to start using it and word will spread. You will gain loyal customers, you next release, and/or product the MAC and LInux numbers will be MUCH higher at the start.
Power Corrupts,Absolute Power Corrupts Absolutely, leaving one person(group)in charge is absolutely corrupt.
Where the hell did you get linux from?
Now don't worry I know what your trying to say but geez you are just giving the Microsoft Apologists fodder. Oh look Mac story and all the little /. hippies use it to say linux is winning.
As for the question the original poster asked? According to google measurements Windows is 95% of the market. A figure most people repeat. So no need to develop for anything else right?
Ehm imagine this in the real world. A brick and mortar shop that refuses entry to 1 out of every 20 customers.
I do know that right know the supermarkets in holland are fighting a nasty pricing war to win over far smaller numbers of customers. Not smart business to just refuse customers at the door. Why the hell this is considered acceptable in IT I never understood. No sane sales person would accept a product wich locks out such a large group of potential customers. (how many bicycle lock makers are there that make locks that fit only 1 bike, how many petrol companies make petrol that only works in one brand of car (hell most petrol stations sell diesel, natural gas, two stroke fuel))
MMO Quests are like orgasms:
You may solo them, I prefer them in a group.
I work for a wireless company in a development group. All the programmers are hard core C++/Java/UNIX people. Of the 11 developers in my group, 7 now have Macintosh machines running OSX, and two others have Linux machines.
Is this indicative of a shift in general society? Nope. We all know that geeks jump first. But once all the geeks are on Macs and Linux, the non-geeks will get a different answer when they ask what kind of computer they should buy. "Windows" won't be the answer anymore, and that's good for the theory of a heterogeneous network being stronger.
- Vincit qui patitur.
The company I work for uses Linux in our tech pit providing technical support strangely enough to windows users, and a few Mac callers. Our product is a customized version of Linux running on servers all across Canada and the U.S.A. We could have used Windows and an 'off the shelf' product, but this solution saves us $$$ in licensing fees, and gives us more control and flexibility, so yeah, Microsoft lost out.
No it's not.
Simple question often brings simple answer.
____
nico
Nico-Live
Why is is so hard for companies to NOT provide support for multiple operating systems? Some desktop applications I can (almost) forgive, but broadband network access? All the company has to do is use standards and not some proprietary microsoft protocols. Even with mesh networking, provide customers with a wireless access point such as a Linksys WRT54G with firmware to support mesh networking and you don't have to worry about the platform, any computer with ethernet can connect, regardless of platform/OS.