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Gates Predicts DVD Obsolete In 10 Years

Posted by timothy on from the tim-predicts-vhs-obsolete-10-years-ago dept.

An anonymous reader writes "Not to say that Mr. Gates has been wrong before (sarcasm), but now he is claiming that DVDs will be obsolete in 10 years. As this post claims, I would have to disagree with the world's richest man and say that compact disk media is here to stay for a while because there is just no substitute for a media that cost cents." (And since SMH is going registration only, thanks to the anonymous reader who points out two non-registration sites -- FlexBeta and Yahoo! -- to read the same wire story, and for the observation that not all of Gates' predictions pan out.)

3 of 668 comments (clear)

  1. Nah! by Tomahawk · · Score: 5, Insightful

    DVDs will be as obselete as PlaystationOne games are now, in that the PS2 will still play the PS1 games, and you can still purchase a PS1 to play these games.

    There will be new formats available, so I'm sure in 10 years time we'll all be watching HDVD, or some other similar but greatly enhanced format, but the players will still play DVDs (in the same way that DVD players today still play VideoCD).

    The physical format won't change (210mm diameter, 21mm diameter hole, 2.1mm thick), but what can be held on a disk that size will change. DVD is 2 layers, but we have already seen that someone has managed to get 15 layers, and that was 2 years ago.

    So, we will have something better, but we will still be able to use our DVDs for a long time yet.

    T.

  2. Re:of course he does by nekoniku · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Frank Zappa said, "Communism will never work because people like to own stuff."

    I think DRM for popular media like CDs, DVDs, etc. will eventually fail for the same reason: people like to own stuff.
    nn

    --
    "It's a wonderful idea. But it doesn't work." -- Tad Danielewski
  3. DRM Cracked by buckhead_buddy · · Score: 5, Insightful

    With the DVD's copy protection / region monopoly features so thoroughly cracked, the makers are anxiously looking for a replacement.

    The replacement may have the exact same physical characteristics but be incompatible with exiting DVD standards. Once something catches on there's no benefit to maintaining DVD as as standard (even a backwards compatible one).

    I'd be suprised if it in fact takes 10 years for this to happen with as much consolidation as there has been among the media companies.