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Gates Predicts DVD Obsolete In 10 Years

Posted by timothy on from the tim-predicts-vhs-obsolete-10-years-ago dept.

An anonymous reader writes "Not to say that Mr. Gates has been wrong before (sarcasm), but now he is claiming that DVDs will be obsolete in 10 years. As this post claims, I would have to disagree with the world's richest man and say that compact disk media is here to stay for a while because there is just no substitute for a media that cost cents." (And since SMH is going registration only, thanks to the anonymous reader who points out two non-registration sites -- FlexBeta and Yahoo! -- to read the same wire story, and for the observation that not all of Gates' predictions pan out.)

9 of 668 comments (clear)

  1. Video on demand? by jawtheshark · · Score: 5, Interesting
    It's nearly what he describes, well that plus a few automations (like the system knows what you like etc...) Uhm, I have news for Mr Gates: Video on demand has been the "next big thing" for at least the last 10 years.

    I still don't have it... The first question I think you should ask yourself is "Is there demand for such a technology", if not, ask yourself the following question "Can I create demand for such a technology". If both questions can be answered with a "No", which I think is the case for video on demand, then trash the idea... Nobody seems to want video on demand, and nobody managed to create a market for it.

    --
    Ahhh...the great dumpster continuum. Many a free computer will be found there. -- sowth (748135)
    1. Re:Video on demand? by danheskett · · Score: 5, Informative

      On TW Digital Cabble it's not like that. We really do have video on demand. Go to a list of movies (pretty big.. maybe someday it will be every movie ever made, but definately not now).. and we can start it right away.. pause it.. rewind/fast forward, etc.

    2. Re:Video on demand? by macthulhu · · Score: 5, Informative

      I should start by saying that I work for the Deathstar... err... Time Warner Cable. I can't really speak about the competitors' products, but our VOD is not like the traditional pay-per-view. We still have a pile of channels with the same movie all day that start at half hour intervals, but that isn't VOD. For VOD, we add a few movies a week, you can start them at any time, fast forward/rewind, and you can watch it as many times as you like in a 24 hour period. Believe me, nobody thinks less of the service we provide than I do, but the VOD rollout has worked exactly as advertised. There are two additional "features" that don't make it into the marketing materials... One, VOD movies don't seem to freeze up or pixelate as often as the normal digital channels. And two, the catalog of movies only grows. It started with maybe a dozen movies, and everything that's been added since we launched it is still there. It's still not the volume you'd find at CockBuster, but it's growing. And, surprisingly, it's not all huge megabudget movies, there are quite few foreign films and indies, plus older movies available for a cheaper price than the new releases. The older movies seem to be added according to theme or actor... 80's "classics", or additional movies starring somebody who's in one of the new releases, etc. Between cable prices, Roadrunner prices/performance, network programming, etc... It's the only service we offer that I don't hear too many people bitching about. The OnDemand channels from HBO, Showtime, TMC, and Skinemax are great for catching things that are in the current lineup, particularly any of their original stuff... But I agree that the volume is somewhat limited. Personally, I wish we would ditch the VOIP effort and worry about making the stuff we already sell better... But, I'm just the brooding graphics guy that sits in the dimly lit cave with loud scary music... so I doubt they'll be asking me what I think any time soon.

      --

      Someday a real rain is gonna come...

  2. Nah! by Tomahawk · · Score: 5, Insightful

    DVDs will be as obselete as PlaystationOne games are now, in that the PS2 will still play the PS1 games, and you can still purchase a PS1 to play these games.

    There will be new formats available, so I'm sure in 10 years time we'll all be watching HDVD, or some other similar but greatly enhanced format, but the players will still play DVDs (in the same way that DVD players today still play VideoCD).

    The physical format won't change (210mm diameter, 21mm diameter hole, 2.1mm thick), but what can be held on a disk that size will change. DVD is 2 layers, but we have already seen that someone has managed to get 15 layers, and that was 2 years ago.

    So, we will have something better, but we will still be able to use our DVDs for a long time yet.

    T.

    1. Re:Nah! by Schrambo · · Score: 5, Interesting

      So true. Its the same thing with Audio CDs. There are numerous other formats of audio media avalable such as MiniDisc, DVDA, SACD yet the same ol classic 44.1khz sampling late 70's technology still exists to be the primal choice of audio medium. This also could be the same thing with DVD till HDTV actually becomes mainstream and affordable enough for people who wish keep their two kidneys.

      VHS is still alive and kicking, sales may be down against DVD but the demand for VCRs and its cassets are still profitable enough to produce.

  3. 640 DVDs by circletimessquare · · Score: 5, Funny

    640 DVDs ought to be good enough for anyone

    --
    intellectual property law is philosophically incoherent. it is your moral duty to ignore it or sabotage it
  4. More to it than cost... by Mork29 · · Score: 5, Interesting

    compact disk media is here to stay for a while because there is just no substitute for a media that cost cents.

    That's not completely true. Higher quality will make another format more popular with users, and something that can't be copied easily will be popular with the MPAA. With DVD burners (even dual-layer and blu-ray) becoming available to the home user, DVDs are to easy to copy from the MPAA's view, and average consumers who don't burn dvd's and get told that a new format will look better on their new expensive HDTV will be tempted to switch over. I read a recent artical about a company that created a new video recording format that hold about 1GB/layer and can be layered 100 deep. It was some sort of "holographic" alternative that wrote the data onto what looked like a 1" square piece of glass. It even had it's own custom reader out that was rather small. Supposedly it's near impossible for a user to make a pirated copy of this movie, and something that small that can hold that much data would provide some incredible picture quality. Anything that can provide high image quality or is difficult to copy will catch on. Remember, the MPAA can shape the market, and if they like a new technology, they can put on the neccessary preasure to replace DVDs before their time. Of course such a move would motivate users to pirate movies online at the same scale they do music (which is becoming more possible with bigger HDs and highly available broadband). Well, in the end, nobody can predict the death of a technology, espeically somebody with a track record like Bill Gates.
    Ok, I think I'm done now...

  5. Re:of course he does by nekoniku · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Frank Zappa said, "Communism will never work because people like to own stuff."

    I think DRM for popular media like CDs, DVDs, etc. will eventually fail for the same reason: people like to own stuff.
    nn

    --
    "It's a wonderful idea. But it doesn't work." -- Tad Danielewski
  6. DRM Cracked by buckhead_buddy · · Score: 5, Insightful

    With the DVD's copy protection / region monopoly features so thoroughly cracked, the makers are anxiously looking for a replacement.

    The replacement may have the exact same physical characteristics but be incompatible with exiting DVD standards. Once something catches on there's no benefit to maintaining DVD as as standard (even a backwards compatible one).

    I'd be suprised if it in fact takes 10 years for this to happen with as much consolidation as there has been among the media companies.